Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Last week's view: The current valuation of methanol is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressure, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has brought about certain geopolitical expectations, so there is feasibility for bottom - fishing [16]. - This week's view: The current methanol price has almost fully priced in the geopolitical premium. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may persist, which will put pressure on the upside [16]. Summary by Directory 01 - Weekly Assessment - **Market Trend**: A chart of the methanol index from 2025 - 01 - 01 to 2026 - 01 - 28 is presented [13][14]. - **Factor Assessment & Strategy** - **Supply**: Overseas methanol production starts to slow seasonally, while domestic production remains at a high level. The previous high - volume overseas shipments are arriving slowly, and the current overseas shipments are decreasing seasonally, with a neutral outlook [16]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of MTO, olefins, and formaldehyde remain relatively high. The MTO valuation is low but lacks obvious driving factors. Downstream industries are hesitant about the current methanol price, limiting the price increase. Geopolitical conflicts are unlikely to cause an extreme supply - demand gap, with a neutral outlook [16]. - **Inventory**: The high - level destocking at ports has slowed down, and inventory is expected to accumulate again, but the marginal increase is small. Factory inventories remain stable, with a slightly bearish outlook [16]. - **Cost**: The replenishment of thermal coal inventories has fallen short of expectations, and prices have started to decline from high levels. Oil and gas prices are weakly oscillating with limited expected fluctuations, with a neutral outlook [16]. 02 - Spot and Futures Market - **Basis and Spreads**: Charts of the methanol term structure, Jiangsu methanol prices, methanol 01 basis, and methanol 1 - 5 spreads are provided [19][22][24]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Charts of methanol 01 contract's open interest, trading volume, total open interest, and total trading volume are presented [29][32]. 03 - Profit and Inventory - **Raw Material Prices**: Charts of IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and thermal coal prices (Ordos Q5500 and Qinhuangdao Port Q5500) are provided [43][45]. - **Production Profit**: Charts of coal - based and gas - based methanol production profits in Inner Mongolia, Southwest China, and Shandong are presented [48][49]. - **Port Inventory**: Charts of port inventories, East China port inventories, South China port inventories, and methanol social inventories are provided [52][54][56]. - **Regional Inventory**: Charts of factory inventories, Northwest factory inventories, East China regional inventories, and Ningbo port inventories are presented [61][62][63]. 04 - Supply Side - **Shipment Monitoring**: Charts of global methanol shipments, arrivals, Middle East shipments, and Asia - Pacific arrivals are provided [70]. - **Upstream Production and Operating Rates**: Charts of domestic methanol operating rates, weekly methanol production, and overseas methanol operating rates are presented [76][74]. - **Import Volume**: Charts of import volumes, Iranian imports, Omani imports, and Saudi imports are provided [78][81]. - **Arrival Volume**: Charts of methanol arrivals in East China, South China, and China are provided [86][88]. - **International Price Spreads**: Charts of import profits, China - Southeast Asia spreads, China - US Gulf spreads, and China - Europe spreads are presented [94]. - **Regional Price Spreads**: The regional price spread shows that ports are weak while the inland is strong. Charts of East China - Inner Mongolia spreads, East China - Southern Shandong spreads, Southern Shandong - Northwest spreads, and South China - East China spreads are provided [96][97][99]. - **Domestic Freight**: Charts of methanol freight rates from Dalate Banner to Dongying, Yulin to Dongying, and Luoyang to Changzhou are provided [106]. 05 - Demand Side - **Methanol - to - Olefins** - **Operating Rates**: Charts of olefin operating rates and Jiangsu - Zhejiang MTO operating rates are provided [114]. - **Profits**: Charts of Fude and Xingxing's profits are presented [112]. - **PP Production Profits**: Charts of oil - based, coal - based, PDH - based, and externally - sourced propylene - based PP production profits are provided [119]. - **MTO - Related Spreads**: Charts of PP - 3MA, LL - 3MA, EG - 2MA, and MA - 2ZC spreads are provided [121][125]. - **Traditional Downstream** - **1,4 - Butanediol**: A chart of 1,4 - butanediol capacity utilization rate is provided [130]. - **Acetic Acid**: Charts of acetic acid operating rates and profits are provided [136]. - **Formaldehyde and Dimethyl Ether**: Charts of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether operating rates and profits are provided [140][144]. - **MTBE**: Charts of MTBE operating rates and profits are provided [147][151]. - **Downstream Inventory**: A chart of methanol raw material inventory of downstream manufacturers in China is provided [153]. - **Related Product Ratios**: Charts of methanol - urea, methanol/INE crude oil, methanol/thermal coal, and MA/EG ratios are provided [157]. 06 - Options - Related - **Methanol Options**: Charts of methanol option open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [161]. 07 - Industry Structure Diagram - **Methanol Industry Chain**: A chart of the methanol industry chain and a mind - map of the methanol research framework analysis are provided [165][167].

Core Viewpoint - Despite a strong rebound in the U.S. stock market following a 25% decline earlier this year, short positions in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices continue to rise, indicating that investors may be employing a contrarian strategy to hedge risks or express doubts about the sustainability of the recovery [1] Group 1: Short Position Trends - According to S3 Partners, the short position in the S&P 500 has increased from 5.4% at the beginning of the year to 5.8% [1] - The short position in the Nasdaq 100 has expanded from less than 5.2% to approximately 6.1% [1] Group 2: Market Performance Comparison - The S&P 500 index has seen a year-to-date increase of only 6%, which is significantly lower than the average gains of 15%-20% in major global markets [1] - S3 Partners highlights that only a few major global indices have underperformed the S&P 500, contributing to its lagging growth compared to the global average [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon maintains an oversupply pattern, with the disk still having a downward driving force, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 6,800 - 7,300 yuan/ton next week [6][7]. - Polysilicon also follows the idea of shorting on rallies. The spot price is expected to continue falling after the SNEC meeting this week, and the disk is expected to be in the range of 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton next week [7]. - It is recommended to continue holding the PS2507/PS2508 inter - period reverse spread strategy and choose the opportunity to take profit by paying attention to the warehouse receipt registration situation. It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon factories adopt the selling hedging strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses of industrial silicon from May 23, 2025, to June 13, 2025, are provided, including different grades such as Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 [10]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: Factories in Southwest and Northwest regions are continuously resuming production, providing supply increments. Xinjiang factories have the feasibility of starting production after the electricity price cut, and there is an expectation of continued resumption to near - full operation. The entry of the Southwest region into the wet season also has a driving force for resumption [3]. - Inventory: This week, the social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 3,200 tons. The overall industry inventory decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 11,000 tons compared with last week [3]. 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The weekly output has a marginal increase in the short term. It is expected that the production schedule in June will be 105,000 tons, an increase compared with May. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers has started to accumulate, and the upstream inventory pressure has increased [4]. - Demand: Terminal demand has declined, leading to an expectation of a downward adjustment in silicon wafer production schedules. After the "531" rush - installation ended, the demand declined, and the silicon wafer production schedules from May to June continued to show a monthly downward trend. The silicon wafer price has continued to fall, and the expected downward adjustment in production schedules has deepened [5]. 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Organic Silicon - Supply: This week, the weekly output of organic silicon decreased, and the subsequent resumption space of organic silicon enterprises is not large, and the marginal demand for industrial silicon has decreased [4]. - Demand: The terminal of organic silicon has not improved, and the consumption boost is limited [4]. 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Entering June - July, it is the off - season for aluminum alloy consumption, with overall rigid - demand orders, and the actual trading volume has not increased significantly [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The strategy is to short on rallies. The asphalt market is mainly in a downward oscillation. Given the tight raw materials, the asphalt crack spread is expected to strengthen [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The asphalt production rate decreased by 1.0 percentage points week-on-week to 25.7%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year, close to the lowest level in recent years. The expected production in March is 2.386 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 278,000 tons or 13.2%. The downstream industries resumed work, but the road asphalt start - up rate remained flat at 19%, recovering slowly. The government plans to allocate 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year. The national shipment volume increased by 0.87% week - on - week to 244,000 tons but remained low. The refinery inventory - to - stock ratio decreased for two consecutive weeks and was at the lowest level in recent years. Due to the cold air, the actual demand still needs to recover. U.S. policies on Venezuela, Russia, and Iran affected crude oil procurement, causing the asphalt price to first rebound and then decline due to concerns about the global economy [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The asphalt futures contract 2506 fell 1.63% to 3,321 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,300 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,374 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 20,579 to 186,284 lots [2]. Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract rose to 179 yuan/ton, reaching a relatively high level [5]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some refineries switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt production rate decreased by 1.0 percentage points week - on - week to 25.7%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From January to February, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with the whole year of 2024 but remained negative. From January to February 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, a decline compared with - 1.1% from January to December 2025. The fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6% year - on - year from January to February 2025, an increase compared with 4.4% from January to December 2025. As of the week of April 4, the downstream industries resumed work, but the road asphalt start - up rate remained flat at 19%. The government proposed a more active fiscal policy, with a higher deficit rate, larger deficit and debt scales [6]. Inventory - As of the week of April 4, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points week - on - week to 18.9%, falling for two consecutive weeks and remaining at the lowest level in recent years [7][8]