商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 09 日 工业硅：逢高布空思路 多晶硅：悲观情绪较浓 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | T | T-1 -445 | T-5 -380 | T-22 -270 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 8,535 666,115 | 188,729 | 299,914 | 495,446 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | | | | | | | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 260,531 53,610 | 15,797 -4,690 | 44,311 -4,280 | 63,588 - | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605成交量（手） | 39,605 | 19,024 | -3,108 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 58,049 | -9,751 | -25,286 | ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2026 年 01 月 04 日 工业硅：上游减产节奏仍需留意 多晶硅：1 月关注上游减产情形 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面重心上移，现货价格持平；多晶硅盘面区间震荡，现货报价稳定 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面重心上移，部分资金炒作工业硅工厂减产挺价，节前收于 8860 元/ 吨。现货市场价格持稳，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8700 元/吨（环比不变），内蒙 99 硅报价 8950 元/吨(环 比+100)。 多晶硅运行情况：本周多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡，波动放大，节前盘面收于 57920 元/吨。多晶硅现货市场 来看，上游报价坚挺，下游刚需补库，亦有高价签单情况。 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存累库；多晶硅上游库存继续累库 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存小幅累库。据咨询商统计，本周新疆、内蒙地区开工增加，西南地区开工 减少，整体周产小幅环增。具体而言，西南地区进入枯水期，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000- 10500 元/吨，枯水期当地开工目前已降至极低位置。月度来看，12 月份 ...

2025 年 12 月 22 日 工业硅：逢高做空为主 多晶硅：区间震荡 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | T 8,690 | T-1 45 | T-5 255 | T-22 -700 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 315,326 | -33,151 | 87,149 | -440,406 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 209,873 | 2,093 | 99,049 | -96,796 | | | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 60,245 | 945 | 3,055 | - | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605成交量（手） | 278,789 | -120,030 | -35,898 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 139,187 | -673 | 12,751 | - | | ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 21 日 工业硅：逢高布空思路，关注供应扰动 多晶硅：预计盘面宽幅震荡态势 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面先跌后涨，现货价格持平；多晶硅盘面重心抬升，现货报价稳定 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面先跌后涨，整体重心上移，部分资金炒作工业硅工厂联合挺价，叠加 焦煤期货上涨等因素，周五收于 8690 元/吨。现货市场价格持稳，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8750 元/吨（环 比不变），内蒙 99 硅报价 8850 元/吨(环比不变)。 多晶硅运行情况：本周多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡，重心抬升，波动放大，周五盘面收于 60245 元/吨。多晶 硅现货市场来看，上游报价坚挺，下游小幅补库。 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存去库；多晶硅上游库存高位 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存小幅去库。据咨询商统计，本周甘肃及内蒙地区开工减少，整体周产小幅 环减。具体而言，西南地区进入枯水期，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000-10500 元/吨，枯 水期当地开工持续性回落。月度来看，12 月份 ...

2025 年 12月 14 日 音环保消息发酵。 坝片常面高位震荡 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 张 航 本周价格走势:工业硅盘面先跌后涨,现货价格下跌;多晶硅盘面低开高走,现货报价稳定 工业硅运行情况:本周工业硅盘面先跌后涨,整体重心下移,或与资金配置"多多晶硅、空工业硅"策 略有关，周五收于 8435 元/吨。现货市场价格下跌，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8750 元/吨（环比-150），内 蒙 99 硅报价 8850元/吨(环比-200)。 多晶硅运行情况:本周多晶硅盘面重心抬升，周中市场预期已久的平台公司落地，市场情绪重新得到提 振，盘面重心抬升。周五盘面收于,57190元/吨。多晶硅现货市场来看，上游报价坚挺。 供需基本面:工业硅本周行业库存累库;多晶硅上游库存继续累库 工业硅供给端,周度行业库存继续累库。据咨询商统计,本周新疆及内蒙地区开工增加,整体周产小幅 环增。具体而言，西南地区进入枯水期，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000-10500 元/吨, 枯 水期当地开工持续性回落。月度来看,12月份上游西南减产幅度增加,虽新疆部分工厂有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the fundamentals are bullish, with supply-side production scheduled to decrease, demand recovery at a low level, and cost support increasing. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8990 - 9170 [5][8]. - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are neutral, with continuous decreases in supply-side production scheduling and overall demand showing a continuous decline, while cost support remains stable. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 51880 - 53430 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase from the previous week, indicating a slight uptick in demand [5]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygenated 553 silicon was 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On November 17, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 270 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 546,000 tons, a 1.08% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 172,600 tons, a 0.35% increase; and the main port inventory was 127,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [8]. - Market: The MA20 was upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with a decrease in short positions [8]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, a 0.74% decrease from the previous week. The predicted production in November is 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 13.12GW, a 2.45% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 184,200 tons, a 5.13% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduled for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N-type polysilicon is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On November 17, the basis of the 01 contract was -355 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [10]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 267,000 tons, a 3.08% increase from the previous week, at a historically low level [10]. - Market: The MA20 was upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [10]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon [21][22]. 3.4 Polysilicon Market Price Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the price, trading volume, and basis of the PS main contract [24][25]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Inventory - The report displays the historical trends of the inventory in delivery warehouses and ports, SMM sample enterprise weekly inventory, and registered warehouse receipts [27]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The report presents the historical trends of SMM sample enterprise weekly production, industrial silicon monthly production by specification, and SMM sample enterprise operating rate [28][29][30][31][33]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang [35][36]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report presents the historical trends of the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [37][38]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the historical trends of the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [40][41]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC Price and Production Trends - The report presents the historical trends of DMC daily capacity utilization, profit - cost trends, weekly production, and price [43][44]. 3.11 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - Downstream Price Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the average prices of 107 rubber, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [45][46]. 3.12 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - Import - Export and Inventory Trends - The report presents the historical trends of DMC monthly import and export volumes and inventory [49][50]. 3.13 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation - The report shows the historical trends of waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, China's unforged aluminum alloy import - export situation, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit [52][53]. 3.14 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Inventory and Production Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [55][56]. 3.15 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Demand (Automobiles and Wheel Hubs) - The report shows the historical trends of automobile monthly production, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel hub export [57][58][59][60]. 3.16 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, operating rate, and monthly demand [62][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The industrial silicon market is affected by multiple factors, with supply-side production cuts and demand recovery at a low level. The cost support has increased, and the industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8965 - 9165 [3]. - The polysilicon market shows a continuous decline in supply and demand, with a weakening of cost support. The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52590 - 54200 [8]. - The main logic for the market is that the supply-demand imbalance caused by capacity mismatch is difficult to change, with cost increases providing some support, but the slow post - holiday demand recovery and the oversupply in the downstream polysilicon market are negative factors [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 100,000 tons, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule is expected to decrease and stay around the historical average [3]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 87,000 tons, at a neutral level and a 7.44% decrease from the previous week. The demand in the downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is generally weak [3]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is at a loss of 3144 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 558,000 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week, while the sample enterprise inventory and major port inventory have increased [3]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [3]. - Expectation: The industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8965 - 9165 [3]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 28,200 tons, a 4.40% decrease from the previous week. The November production schedule is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: The production and demand in the downstream sectors of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are all decreasing. The silicon wafer and battery cell production are in a loss state [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 37,790 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 13,210 yuan/ton [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the historical period [8]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and the short position has changed to long [8]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52590 - 54200 [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - The report provides detailed data on the price, basis, inventory, production, and capacity utilization of industrial silicon, as well as the cost and profit of different regions and specifications [14]. - It also shows the price trends of downstream products such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon, as well as their production, inventory, and trade data [41][50][60]. Polysilicon - The report presents data on the production, demand, inventory, and price of polysilicon, as well as the production, inventory, and trade data of its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [16]. - It also includes the monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon, showing the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance situation [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon: The decline in warehouse receipts provides support at the bottom. The supply is expected to decrease month - on - month starting from November, and the demand is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. The short - term disk is considered to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. It is advisable to buy at low prices. The expected disk range next week is 8700 - 9500 yuan/ton [7][8] - Polysilicon: Policy announcements may occur next week, and the disk is expected to hit a previous high but then fall back. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices. The expected disk range next week is 53000 - 59000 yuan/ton [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The futures price showed a strong - side oscillation, and the spot price increased. The futures closed at 9100 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8800 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 100), and that of Inner Mongolia 99 silicon was 9100 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 200) [2] - Polysilicon: The futures price continued to rise, and the spot price remained stable. The futures closed at 56410 yuan/ton on Friday, and the upstream spot price remained firm [2] 2. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. The overall weekly production increased month - on - month, with an increase in the start - up rate in Inner Mongolia and a decrease in the southwest region. In November and December, the overall production is expected to decrease month - on - month. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.5 million tons compared to last week, and the overall industry inventory decreased by 0.06 million tons [3] - Demand side: The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The demand for polysilicon may decrease in the future, the demand from the organic silicon sector remained at a rigid level, and the terminal consumption space was limited. The aluminum alloy sector was operating at a low - load level, and the export market had some inquiry orders [4] Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly production decreased month - on - month. Starting from November, the production of leading factories in the southwest will decrease, and the expected production will fall to 10 - 11 million tons. The inventory increased this week [5][6] - Demand side: The silicon wafer production schedule increased unexpectedly month - on - month, but the price of some specifications of silicon wafers decreased. There were some upstream - downstream orders, but the transaction price remained flat [6] 3. Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations Industrial Silicon - Market outlook: The decline in warehouse receipts provides support at the bottom. The supply and demand are both weak, but the disk has certain support. It is recommended to observe the daily registration/decline of warehouse receipts [7] - Investment recommendation: It is recommended to buy at low prices and take profits at high prices. The expected disk range next week is 8700 - 9500 yuan/ton [8] Polysilicon - Market outlook: Policy announcements may occur next week, and the disk is expected to hit a previous high but then fall back. The supply and demand are both weak, and the 11 - 12 month period will see a small inventory reduction [8] - Investment recommendation: It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices. The expected disk range next week is 53000 - 59000 yuan/ton [8] 4. Hedging Recommendations - It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon factories conduct short - hedging, and downstream silicon wafer enterprises conduct long - hedging [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that supply tightness is expected to drive prices of copper and cobalt commodities upward, while lithium prices may rise due to unexpected demand in energy storage [1] Commodity Price Outlook - Copper and cobalt prices are anticipated to continue rising due to supply constraints [1] - Lithium prices are expected to benefit from higher-than-expected energy storage demand [1] - Precious metals have experienced a pullback, but the overall bullish sentiment remains unchanged [1] - Coal and electrolytic aluminum, which have shown stagnation this year, may receive increased attention in Q4 [1] Other Commodities - Oil and steel/iron ore prices are projected to remain weak [1] - Silicon product prices are expected to see a slight increase [1] - The investment enthusiasm for bulk commodities is likely to persist amid liquidity easing and countries strengthening their efforts to secure key resources [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are weakening, and the futures market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the expected trading range for next week is 8,200 - 8,700 yuan/ton [6]. - For polysilicon, policy expectations still exist. One can look for buying opportunities at low prices. The expected trading range for next week is 51,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon's futures price showed a weak and volatile trend, with the spot price falling. The futures closed at 8,430 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was reported at 8,750 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan week-on-week), and Inner Mongolia 99 silicon at 8,950 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan week-on-week) [1]. - Polysilicon's futures price showed a strong and volatile trend, with the spot price remaining stable. The futures closed at 52,340 yuan/ton on Friday. The upstream's offer remained firm, while the downstream was still in a wait - and - see state [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply side**: The weekly industry inventory increased. The production in Xinjiang increased, and the southwest is expected to gradually reduce production from the end of October. The estimated production in October is 440,000 tons. The social inventory increased by 17,000 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 200 tons this week [2]. - **Demand side**: The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors support consumption. Polysilicon's production is high in October but will decline in November. Organic silicon has short - term maintenance, and the demand from the aluminum alloy end is mainly for rigid orders. The export market is stable [3]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Supply side**: The short - term weekly production remains high. Some idle production capacities are planned to resume production in October, with an estimated production of about 135,000 tons. Southwest leading factories will reduce production from November, and the inventory increased this week [3]. - **Demand side**: The silicon wafer production increased more than expected in October. The silicon wafer inventory is relatively low, and the average raw material inventory is close to 2 - 3 months. Silicon wafer manufacturers are in a wait - and - see state for procurement [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand are weakening. The supply is expected to decrease month - on - month from November, and the demand will also decline. The futures price has limited upside space and is likely to decline. It is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to the futures warehouse receipt volume [6]. 3.3.2 Polysilicon - There are still policy expectations. The supply and demand are in a weak state. The supply will shrink from November, and the demand from the silicon wafer end needs to be observed in November - December. It is recommended to buy at low prices and pay attention to the actual procurement price and the establishment time of the platform company [7]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon Price Data - The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from September 19, 2025, to October 17, 2025 [10]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Supply - Side Charts - Multiple charts show the inventory, production, profit, export and import volume, and raw material prices of industrial silicon, including social inventory, factory inventory, monthly production, profit calculation, etc. [12][13][15] 3.6 Industrial Silicon Consumption - Side Charts 3.6.1 Downstream Polysilicon - Charts show the spot price, production, industry profit, and related consumption data of polysilicon, such as the price of different types of polysilicon, monthly production, and industry profit calculation [21] 3.6.2 Downstream Organic Silicon - Charts show the average price, industry start - up rate, production, inventory, and profit of domestic DMC, as well as the export volume of primary - form polysiloxane [22][24] 3.6.3 Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Charts show the price, industry start - up rate, profit, and related consumption data of recycled aluminum ADC12, as well as the monthly sales volume of domestic automobiles [24][26]