Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On the 9th, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,450 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.82%. The position increased by 17,899 lots to 295,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,458 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 400 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 49,370 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.17%. The position increased by 413 lots to 38,347 lots. The price of N-type recycled silicon material from Baichuan reached 53,650 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 53,650 yuan/ton. The spot premium narrowed to 4,280 yuan/ton. Yunnan manufacturers entered the delivery period of the last batch of orders before the festival, and production will be gradually reduced across the board this week. Xinjiang continued to reduce production and output. Currently, term merchants are still actively selling goods, and downstream inventory replenishment is coming to an end. There is no driving force for price increases before the festival. New orders in the crystalline silicon market have stagnated before the festival. Silicon wafers have entered a one-order-one-negotiation mode. Except for component traders selling goods at reduced prices due to capital pressure, other links have temporarily stabilized in the stalemate of transactions. Before the festival, around the logic of capital recovery, the crystalline silicon market continued to be weak, and the market contradiction shifted to the game of post-festival expected confidence [2]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,450 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 8,360 yuan/ton. The prices of most spot products remained stable, with only the prices of some oxygenated 553 silicon products decreasing by 50 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable product price remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 50 yuan to 400 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 12 to 16,749, and the social inventory increased by 16,500 tons to 439,350 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 85 yuan/ton to 49,370 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract remained unchanged at 49,490 yuan/ton. The price of N-type recycled silicon material increased by 50 yuan/ton to 53,650 yuan/ton, and the current lowest deliverable product price also increased by 50 yuan/ton to 53,650 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased by 35 yuan to 4,280 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 8,610, and the social inventory increased by 0.9 tons to 34.1 tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of most organic silicon products remained stable, with only the price of dimethyl silicone oil increasing by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: The charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and coking coal prices [6][8][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][16]. - **Inventory**: The charts show the futures inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventory of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory change of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC [18][21]. - **Cost and Profit**: The charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of aluminum alloy [24][26][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In February, the industrial silicon market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side is expected to contract significantly due to the planned halting of production at a large factory in the northwest and the full shutdown of production enterprises in Sichuan. Although the balance sheet is expected to improve to some extent, the upward drive is insufficient in the context of a weak commodity market atmosphere, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the duration of the large factory's shutdown and the price adjustment caused by market sentiment [14]. - For polysilicon, in February, a leading enterprise will maintain full - scale shutdown, and the supply will continue to decrease. The silicon wafer production schedule is expected to remain stable, and the high inventory in the silicon material segment is expected to be slightly reduced. The spot price game continues, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand feedback and spot price after the Spring Festival [17]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industrial Silicon** - As of January 30, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, with a flat month - on - month change; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, and the discounted futures price was 8,850 yuan/ton, also with a flat month - on - month change [13][22]. - In January 2026, the industrial silicon output was 320,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 21,400 tons or 7.18% [13][30]. - The cost in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 9,718.00 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 8,960.00 yuan/ton [13][45]. - The inventory at the end of January was 509,100 tons, including 250,400 tons in factory inventory, 189,000 tons in market inventory, and 69,700 tons in registered warehouse receipts [13][48]. - **Polysilicon** - As of January 30, 2026, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 51.3 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 50.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0 yuan/kg [16][25]. - In January, the polysilicon output was 100,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.78% [13][16][53]. - The production cost was 44,102.42 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 6,766.00 yuan/ton, with a profit decline [16][62]. - The inventory at the end of January was 332,100 tons according to Baichuan Yingfu and 333,000 tons according to SMM, with factory inventory accumulating [15][17][59]. - **Downstream Products** - In January, the silicon wafer output was 45.93GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.03GW and a year - on - year decrease of 0.15% [15][65]. - The battery cell output was 41.44GW, a month - on - month decrease of 5.32GW and a year - on - year decrease of 14.01%; the photovoltaic battery operating rate was 42.52%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.59 percentage points [15][73]. - The component output was 35.2GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5GW and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%; the component operating rate was 34.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.4 percentage points [15][82]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon** - The report provides charts of industrial silicon spot and futures prices and the basis of the main contract, showing the price trends from 2022 to 2026 [21]. - **Polysilicon** - The report provides charts of polysilicon spot and futures prices and the basis of the main contract, showing the price trends from 2024 to 2026 [24]. 3. Industrial Silicon - **Total Output** - In January 2026, the industrial silicon output was 320,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 21,400 tons or 7.18% [30]. - **Output in Main Production Areas** - The report provides charts of industrial silicon output in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu from 2021 to 2026 [32][34][37]. - **Production Cost** - As of January 30, 2026, the electricity price in the main production areas was flat month - on - month, and the silica price was stable month - on - month. The silicon - coal price in Xinjiang decreased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. The average cost in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 9,718.00 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 8,960.00 yuan/ton [42][45]. - **Visible Inventory** - At the end of January, the industrial silicon inventory was 509,100 tons, including 250,400 tons in factory inventory, 189,000 tons in market inventory, and 69,700 tons in registered warehouse receipts [48]. 4. Polysilicon - **Output** - In January, the polysilicon output was 100,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.78% [53]. - **Operating Rate and Production Schedule** - The operating rate in January was 34.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17 percentage points. The expected output in February was 79,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease [56]. - **Inventory** - At the end of January, the polysilicon inventory was 332,100 tons according to Baichuan Yingfu and 333,000 tons according to SMM, with factory inventory accumulating [59]. - **Cost and Profit** - The production cost was 44,102.42 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 6,766.00 yuan/ton, with a profit decline [62]. - **Silicon Wafer** - In January, the silicon wafer output was 45.93GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.03GW and a year - on - year decrease of 0.15%. The inventory at the end of January was 27.29GW, a month - on - month increase. The predicted output in February was 45.31GW, basically stable month - on - month [65][68]. - **Battery Cell** - In January, the battery cell output was 41.44GW, a month - on - month decrease of 5.32GW and a year - on - year decrease of 14.01%; the operating rate was 42.52%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.59 percentage points. The inventory at the end of January was 9.17GW. The expected output in February was 36.7GW, a continued month - on - month decline [73][76]. - **Component** - In January, the component output was 35.2GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5GW and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%; the operating rate was 34.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.4 percentage points. The inventory at the end of January was 26.1GW. The expected output in February was 29.8GW, a continued decline from January [82][85]. 5. Organic Silicon - **Output** - In January, the DMC output was 189,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 18.16% [92]. - **Price and Profit** - As of January 30, 2026, the average price of organic silicon was 13,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton. The DMC gross profit was 1,859.38 yuan/ton [95]. - **Inventory** - At the end of January, the DMC inventory was 40,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,500 tons [98]. 6. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export - **Aluminum Alloy** - As of January 30, 2026, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 24,780 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,960 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 24,290 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,780 yuan/ton. In 2025 from January to December, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 19.297 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.156 million tons or 19.55% [103]. - At the end of January, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.9% [106]. - **Export** - In 2025 from January to December, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 708,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13,500 tons or 1.94% [109].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon has inventory destocking, and attention should be paid to the implementation of upstream production cuts. The fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand, with a greater reduction in supply than in demand, and the monthly balance turns to destocking. It is recommended to look for buying points at low levels, and the expected trading range next week is 8,500 - 9,300 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Polysilicon shows a pattern of weak supply and strong demand. Although it is in a high - inventory state, the bottom of the futures price is supported. It is not recommended to participate in futures, and options can be considered. The expected trading range next week is 47,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [9]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from January 12 - 30, 2026 remained stable. For example, the reference price of Si5530 in East China was 9,250 yuan/ton during this period [12]. 2. Supply Side of Industrial Silicon - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: Upstream may significantly cut production. Xinjiang's production decreased this week due to some factories' large - scale furnace shutdowns. Southwest China has entered the dry season, with high production costs and very low operating rates. The estimated cost of the dry season in Southwest China is 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price) [3]. - Inventory: SMM statistics show that the social inventory increased by 0.2 tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.41 tons, and the overall industry inventory decreased by 0.6 tons this week. Future attention should be paid to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [3]. 3. Consumption Side of Industrial Silicon - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: In January 2026, polysilicon manufacturers passively cut production due to inventory pressure. The weekly output decreased, and the inventory increased. The current factory inventory is around 330,000 tons, and the overall industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to 5 months of consumption. The average full - cost is estimated to be in the range of 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Demand: The silicon wafer production schedule increased week - on - week in January. However, due to the increase in costs such as silver prices, the battery and component sectors cannot further increase production, resulting in inventory accumulation pressure on the silicon wafer side, and there may be a downward trend in the future [7]. 4. Consumption Side of Industrial Silicon - Downstream Organic Silicon - Supply: The weekly production of organic silicon decreased this week, and there are plans for further production cuts in the future to support prices. - Demand: It is currently the off - season for demand, and the inventory of organic silicon is at a medium level. The cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1 may lead to pre - emptive export behavior, bringing some consumption increments. Attention should be paid to the price transmission situation [4]. 5. Consumption Side of Industrial Silicon - Downstream Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers have a reasonable inventory of industrial silicon. They have a high enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices and a strong wait - and - see attitude at other times. The overseas demand in the export market has not improved [4].

Report Date - The report is dated January 25, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Industrial silicon inventory continues to accumulate, but upstream production cuts are driving supply reduction. The supply reduction is greater than the demand reduction, leading to a shift to de - stocking in the monthly balance. It is recommended to wait for low - valuation opportunities to go long. The expected trading range for the next week is 8200 - 9300 yuan/ton [6][7] - The polysilicon market is in a state of wide - range oscillation. The supply is weak while the demand is strong. The bottom of the market has support, but the market liquidity has been decreasing. It is not recommended to participate in futures, but options can be considered. The expected trading range for the next week is 48000 - 55000 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from January 6 to 23, 2026, remained stable. For example, the price of Si5530 in East China was 9250 yuan/ton during this period [10] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Materials - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.1 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.56 million tons, with a total industry inventory increase of 0.66 million tons. The overall weekly production decreased slightly. In the southwest, due to the dry season, the cost is 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price), and the local production has dropped to a very low level. Some factories in Xinjiang also have a driving force to cut production due to raw material issues [3][11] - **Price and Profit**: The report provides historical data and trends of industrial silicon's monthly opening rate, monthly production, export and import volume, trade - link inventory - to - sales ratio, and the prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, electrodes, and electricity in major production areas [13][15][17][22] 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - **Market Conditions**: The polysilicon market showed wide - range oscillation this week. The upstream price quotation may be loose, and attention should be paid to the downstream restocking node in late January. The short - term weekly production decreased, and the inventory increased. The average full - cost is about 45000 - 46000 yuan/ton. The silicon wafer production increased week - on - week, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future [2][4][5] - **Data Trends**: The report presents historical data and trends of polysilicon's spot price, production volume and year - on - year change, industry opening rate, import and export volume, industry profit, single - crystal silicon wafer export volume, domestic photovoltaic monthly new - installed capacity, and new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity [18][19][21][23][25] 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Organic Silicon - **Market Conditions**: This week, the weekly production of organic silicon decreased, and the self - discipline plan may further cut production to support prices. The cancellation of export tax rebates after April 1 may lead to pre - emptive exports and some consumption increase [4] - **Data Trends**: The report shows historical data and trends of the average price, monthly opening rate, production volume and monthly year - on - year change, factory inventory, export volume and year - on - year change, and industry profit of domestic DMC [25][26] 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - **Market Conditions**: Aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers stock up on industrial silicon at a reasonable level. They have a relatively high enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices and a high degree of wait - and - see sentiment during other periods. Overseas demand in the export market has not improved [4] - **Data Trends**: The report provides historical data and trends of the price seasonality, monthly opening rate, average profit of the recycled aluminum industry, and the seasonality of domestic automobile monthly sales [27][28][32]

Group 1: Investment Rating - Industry investment rating for industrial silicon: Short at high prices [1] - Industry investment rating for polysilicon: Pessimistic sentiment [2] Group 2: Core View - The report provides detailed fundamental data for industrial silicon and polysilicon, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, profits, and inventories. It also mentions a macro and industry news about export control, and gives the trend strength for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2605 closing price decreased by 445 yuan/ton compared to T - 1, and PS2605 closing price decreased by 4,690 yuan/ton compared to T - 1. Si2605 trading volume was 8,535,666,115 hands, and PS2605 trading volume was 39,605 hands. PS2605 open interest decreased by 9,751 hands compared to T - 1 [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +715 yuan/ton, and polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was +1890 yuan/ton [2] - **Prices**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 55,500 yuan/ton [2] - **Profits**: Silicon factory profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) was - 2,791.5 yuan/ton, and polysilicon enterprise profit was 11.1 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventories**: Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.2 million tons, and polysilicon - factory inventory was 30.2 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: Silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and graphite electrode was 12,450 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - On January 6, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce announced strengthened export control of dual - use items to Japan. Currently, industrial silicon products are not restricted [3] 3. Trend Strength - Industrial silicon trend strength: - 1; Polysilicon trend strength: - 1 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the inventory has increased, and the supply is expected to be disrupted in the short - term. The fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the output - cut and price - support actions of upstream factories. It is expected that short - term sentiment speculation may drive up the futures price, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to go short after a rebound and set a stop - profit at a low level, with the expected price range next week between 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton. Upstream industrial silicon plants are recommended to conduct short hedging [7][8][9]. - For polysilicon, the futures price fluctuates in a range. The price - support of silicon materials is gradually transmitted to downstream sectors. The supply and demand are both weak. The market may focus on the improvement of supply - demand relationship brought by future output cuts. The bottom support of the futures price is obvious. It is expected that the price range next week will be between 55000 - 65000 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses of industrial silicon from December 12, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided, with the prices of Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 in different regions remaining relatively stable during this period [11]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Sides - Supply: The weekly production of the industrial silicon industry has a slight increase. The start - up in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia has increased, while that in the southwest has decreased. In December, the output decreased month - on - month due to the significant output cut in the southwest and the limited resumption of production in Xinjiang. The SMM statistics show that the social inventory has increased by 0.2 million tons, the factory inventory has increased by 0.68 million tons, and the overall industry inventory has increased by 0.88 million tons this week. Attention should be paid to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [3]. - Cost: The cost of the southwest region in the dry season is estimated to be between 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton based on the dry - season electricity price, and the local start - up has dropped to a very low level [3]. 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The short - term weekly output of polysilicon has decreased month - on - month. Although some manufacturers resumed production in December, the overall monthly output did not decrease significantly, with an estimated output of 11.35 million tons. In January 2026, it is expected that silicon material manufacturers will start to cut output in an orderly manner to relieve the high - inventory problem. The current manufacturer inventory has reached 30 million tons. The average full cost is estimated to be in the range of 55000 - 56000 yuan [4]. - Demand: The weekly production scheduling of silicon wafers has decreased, mainly affected by the decline in terminal demand. The silicon wafer inventory is at a relatively reasonable level, which can support the firm price of silicon wafers. The price increase of silicon wafers is transmitted to downstream batteries and components. The key is the terminal acceptance of the high price of components [6]. 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Silicone - Supply: The weekly production of silicone has decreased, and some monomer plants have continued to operate at a reduced load. Since December, silicone enterprises have cut output to support prices, but the actual sustainability remains to be verified. - Demand: Considering the current off - season demand and high inventory of silicone, the logic of price - support is difficult to be realized [4]. 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers make reasonable inventory of the industrial silicon market, with high enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices and strong wait - and - see sentiment at other times [4]. 6. Export Market - After the advance delivery of some orders in the third quarter, the export volume in the fourth quarter has significantly shrunk, and overseas demand has not improved [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Short on rallies [1] - Polysilicon: Range-bound [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The trend strength of industrial silicon is -1, indicating a bearish outlook; the trend strength of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2605 closing price is 8,690 yuan/ton, with changes of -45 (T - 1), -255 (T - 5), -700 (T - 22); PS2605 closing price is 60,245 yuan/ton, with changes of 945 (T - 1), 3,055 (T - 5) [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon spot premium/discount varies for different grades; polysilicon spot premium/discount (against N - type reinvestment) is -8245 yuan/ton, with changes of -945 (T - 1), -3,055 (T - 5) [2] - **Prices**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,750 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton; polysilicon - N - type reinvestment is 52,400 yuan/ton [2] - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang new - standard 553 is -2,636.5 yuan/ton, for Yunnan new - standard 553 is -4,974 yuan/ton; polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.1 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon - social inventory is 55.3 tons, enterprise inventory is 19.3 tons, industry inventory is 74.6 tons, and futures warehouse receipt inventory is 4.5 tons; polysilicon - manufacturer inventory is 29.3 tons [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: Silicon ore prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan, wash coal prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia, and prices of petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. are presented [2] - **Polysilicon (Photovoltaic)**: Prices of polysilicon - related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc. are provided, along with their profit data [2] - **Organic Silicon**: DMC price is 13,600 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is 1,690 yuan/ton [2] - **Aluminum Alloy**: ADC12 price is 21,700 yuan/ton, and recycled aluminum enterprise profit is -120 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - On December 13, 2025, the Turkish Ministry of Trade issued Announcement No. 2025/41, making a positive preliminary anti - dumping ruling on photovoltaic aluminum frames originating from China, imposing a temporary anti - dumping duty/margin of 14.79% - 31.40% on the CIF price [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon: Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies and pay attention to supply disruptions. The inventory has decreased, and the supply is expected to decline from December. The demand from downstream remains weak, and the short - term emotional speculation may drive up the price, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the expected trading range next week between 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton. Upstream industrial silicon plants are recommended for selling hedging [1][7][8][9]. - Polysilicon: The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and it is currently in a pattern of inventory accumulation. The establishment of the platform company boosts market confidence, but the upside is limited due to weak demand. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the expected trading range next week between 55000 - 65000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon plants are recommended for selling hedging [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas of industrial silicon and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses have remained relatively stable from December 1 to December 19, 2025 [11]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - The weekly industrial silicon inventory decreased by 0.25 million tons, with a 0.8 - million - ton decrease in social inventory and a 0.55 - million - ton increase in factory inventory. The production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia decreased this week, and the overall weekly production decreased slightly. In the southwest region, entering the dry season, the cost is estimated to be between 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton, and the local production capacity continues to decline. Although some Xinjiang factories resumed production, the scale of production reduction in the southwest is larger, resulting in a decrease in the overall production from November to December [3][12]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - **Price and Market**: This week, the polysilicon futures price fluctuated widely, with the center of gravity rising, and the spot price was stable. The upstream quotation was firm, and the downstream had a small amount of restocking [2]. - **Supply**: The weekly production decreased slightly in the short term. Although some factories resumed production in December, the overall monthly production did not decrease significantly. The production in November was 114,600 tons, and it is expected to be 113,500 tons in December. The current factory inventory has reached 300,000 tons, and the cost is expected to rise compared to October [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly production schedule of silicon wafers decreased, mainly affected by the decline in terminal demand. The silicon wafer inventory is at a relatively reasonable level, which can support the firm quotation [4]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Silicone - **Price and Market**: The average price of DMC has fluctuated, and the industry's monthly operating rate has shown a certain trend. The production in December increased after some monomer plants resumed production after maintenance. Enterprises have been reducing production to support prices since December, but the actual sustainability remains to be verified. Considering the off - season demand and high inventory, the price - support logic is difficult to follow through [3][23][25]. - **Production and Inventory**: The monthly production of DMC and its year - on - year change are presented, and the factory inventory shows a seasonal pattern [26]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloys - **Price and Market**: The price of recycled aluminum ADC12 shows a seasonal pattern, and the monthly operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry has changed over time. Aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers stock up on industrial silicon reasonably, with high purchasing enthusiasm at low prices and strong wait - and - see sentiment at other times [3][26]. - **Profit and Sales**: The average profit of the recycled aluminum industry is calculated, and the monthly sales volume of domestic automobiles shows a seasonal pattern [27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon continues to accumulate inventory, with short - term supply disruptions. The supply in the northwest will gradually resume production, but the overall supply will still decline from December. The demand side remains in a state of weak rigid demand, and the fundamentals are in a state of both supply and demand weakness, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to short industrial silicon on rallies, with the expected trading range of the next - week's industrial silicon futures at 8,000 - 8,800 yuan/ton [5]. - The polysilicon futures price fluctuates at a high level. The supply and demand are both weak. The platform company's plan to compress total production capacity gives the market an expectation of supply reduction, while the terminal demand is weak, resulting in a decline in production scheduling in December. The establishment of the platform company boosts market confidence. It is expected that the next - week's polysilicon futures will trade in the range of 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [5]. - For cross - period trading, no recommendations are provided; for hedging, it is recommended that upstream industrial silicon plants and polysilicon plants conduct short hedging [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The futures price first fell and then rose, with the overall center of gravity moving down, and the spot price declined. On Friday, the futures closed at 8,435 yuan/ton. The SMM - reported price of Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon was 8,750 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan), and that of Inner Mongolia 99 - grade silicon was 8,850 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan) [1]. - Polysilicon: The futures price opened low and closed high, with the center of gravity rising. On Friday, the futures closed at 57,190 yuan/ton. The upstream spot price remained firm [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory continued to accumulate. The production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia increased, but the production in the southwest decreased due to the dry season. The cost in the southwest during the dry season is estimated to be 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton. The overall production from November to December decreased month - on - month. This week, the social inventory increased by 0.3 tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.45 tons, and the overall industry inventory increased by 0.75 tons [2]. - Demand side: The downstream rigid demand is weak. In the polysilicon sector, the weekly production scheduling decreased; in the organic silicon sector, the weekly production decreased, and many organic silicon monomer plants reduced their production loads. The aluminum alloy sector has a reasonable inventory of industrial silicon, with high procurement enthusiasm at low prices and a wait - and - see attitude at other times. The export volume in the fourth quarter decreased significantly [2]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly production decreased month - on - month. In December, some polysilicon manufacturers reduced production, while some others resumed production, so the overall monthly production did not decrease significantly. The November production was 114,600 tons, and the estimated December production is 113,500 tons. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers increased this week, reaching 290,000 tons [3]. - Demand side: The weekly production scheduling of silicon wafers increased month - on - month. The silicon wafer price stabilized after a decline in December, and the production scheduling decreased month - on - month due to the decline in terminal demand. The silicon wafer inventory is at a relatively reasonable level [3]. 3.3 Market Data - The report provides the reference prices of industrial silicon in mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices in three major ports/warehouses from November 24 to December 12, 2025 [7]. - The report also includes multiple charts showing the inventory, production, price, and other data of industrial silicon, polysilicon, DMC, and regenerated aluminum, as well as the relevant data of single - crystal silicon wafer exports, domestic photovoltaic new - installed capacity, and domestic automobile monthly sales [9][10][20][23][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the fundamentals are bullish, with supply-side production scheduled to decrease, demand recovery at a low level, and cost support increasing. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8990 - 9170 [5][8]. - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are neutral, with continuous decreases in supply-side production scheduling and overall demand showing a continuous decline, while cost support remains stable. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 51880 - 53430 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase from the previous week, indicating a slight uptick in demand [5]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygenated 553 silicon was 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On November 17, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 270 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 546,000 tons, a 1.08% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 172,600 tons, a 0.35% increase; and the main port inventory was 127,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [8]. - Market: The MA20 was upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with a decrease in short positions [8]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, a 0.74% decrease from the previous week. The predicted production in November is 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 13.12GW, a 2.45% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 184,200 tons, a 5.13% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduled for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N-type polysilicon is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On November 17, the basis of the 01 contract was -355 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [10]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 267,000 tons, a 3.08% increase from the previous week, at a historically low level [10]. - Market: The MA20 was upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [10]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon [21][22]. 3.4 Polysilicon Market Price Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the price, trading volume, and basis of the PS main contract [24][25]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Inventory - The report displays the historical trends of the inventory in delivery warehouses and ports, SMM sample enterprise weekly inventory, and registered warehouse receipts [27]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The report presents the historical trends of SMM sample enterprise weekly production, industrial silicon monthly production by specification, and SMM sample enterprise operating rate [28][29][30][31][33]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang [35][36]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report presents the historical trends of the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [37][38]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the historical trends of the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [40][41]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC Price and Production Trends - The report presents the historical trends of DMC daily capacity utilization, profit - cost trends, weekly production, and price [43][44]. 3.11 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - Downstream Price Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the average prices of 107 rubber, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [45][46]. 3.12 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - Import - Export and Inventory Trends - The report presents the historical trends of DMC monthly import and export volumes and inventory [49][50]. 3.13 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation - The report shows the historical trends of waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, China's unforged aluminum alloy import - export situation, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit [52][53]. 3.14 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Inventory and Production Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [55][56]. 3.15 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Demand (Automobiles and Wheel Hubs) - The report shows the historical trends of automobile monthly production, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel hub export [57][58][59][60]. 3.16 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, operating rate, and monthly demand [62][63].