2025年10月5日，比特币冲上125,689美元，历史新高。市场炸了锅，有人喊"数字黄金登顶"，也有人冷 笑"又一轮泡沫"。但真正值得琢磨的，是这波涨势背后那些没人细看的逻辑。 这不是2021年那种散户疯抢、社交媒体带节奏的行情。这次，是机构真金白银在买。多只比特币现货 ETF连续几周净流入，资金不是赌一把就跑，而是稳稳扎进来的。渣打银行的Geoffrey Kendrick甚至 说，接下来几周可能冲13.5万。 为什么？因为宏观环境变了。美国政府又快关门了，预算僵局、债务上限、两党扯皮，老戏码重演。每 次这种时候，美元信用就会被短暂打个问号。不是说美元要崩，而是短期不确定性上升，聪明钱会找 点"不依赖政府"的东西对冲。比特币恰好符合：去中心化、总量固定、全球可转移。它未必是终极答 案，但在某些时刻，成了最顺手的工具。 这背后其实是信任机制的迁移。传统金融靠央行、靠法律、靠国家信用背书。但当债务高企、通胀顽 固、地缘冲突不断，这套系统的"信任成本"在上升。人们开始问：有没有另一种方式，不依赖某个中心 节点，也能实现价值存储和转移？比特币不一定完美，但它提供了一个选项，哪怕只是作为"压力测 试"下的备胎。 有意 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful completion of the LG2507 futures contract delivery marks a significant milestone for the wood futures market, validating the contract rules and regulatory framework, and laying a solid foundation for future market functionality and industry development [1][7]. Delivery Performance - The LG2507 contract operated for 169 trading days, with a total trading volume of 4.3411 million contracts and a transaction value of 321.328 billion yuan, averaging 25,700 contracts traded daily [1]. - In July, 1,281 contracts were delivered, equivalent to 115,290 cubic meters of wood, with total delivery value around 95.33 million yuan [2]. Industry Response - Companies like Shandong Tengnuo Wood Industry Co., Ltd. have utilized the futures market to hedge against rising raw material prices, achieving cost and profit margin stabilization through early delivery [3]. - Jiangsu Huihong International Group implemented a sell hedge strategy on the LG2507 contract, successfully completing 85 contracts, which helped smooth their revenue curve [4]. Quality and Efficiency Improvements - The introduction of standardized measurement and inspection processes has enhanced the quality assurance of delivered wood, reducing subjective quality assessments and improving delivery efficiency [4][5]. - Taicang Xinhai Port Development Co., Ltd. achieved a delivery efficiency of 20 minutes per contract, with a daily average of 30 contracts delivered during peak periods [5]. Market Development Initiatives - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has taken proactive measures to ensure smooth delivery operations, including organizing mock deliveries and enhancing training for market participants [6]. - Future plans include strengthening market regulation, expanding delivery resources, and promoting best practices to enhance industry participation in hedging and trading activities [7].

金十数据8月1日讯，高盛信贷策略师近日向客户发出警告，建议对冲风险。策略团队指出："近期美国 与其贸易伙伴达成的一系列贸易协议，使关税前景更加明朗，投资者愿意忽略短期内经济增长的疲软， 只要衰退风险仍处于可控范围。"但他们同时警告，切勿因此掉以轻心。周四全球投资级企业债的信用 利差已收窄至79个基点，为2007年7月以来最低水平，彼时正值全球金融危机爆发前夕。尽管信用利差 持续收窄，且标普500指数本周再创历史新高，但美联储并未释放即将降息的明确信号，表明其仍需更 多数据来确认通胀风险不会持续。高盛策略师强调："当前仍存在足够多的下行风险，值得投资者在投 资组合中保留部分对冲措施。经济增长可能进一步低于预期，反通胀压力可能减弱，或对美联储独立性 的担忧重燃，均可能引发长债收益率大跌。" 高盛：全球信用利差收窄至2007年以来最低水平 建议做好对冲 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite a strong rebound in the U.S. stock market following a 25% decline earlier this year, short positions in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices continue to rise, indicating that investors may be employing a contrarian strategy to hedge risks or express doubts about the sustainability of the recovery [1] Group 1: Short Position Trends - According to S3 Partners, the short position in the S&P 500 has increased from 5.4% at the beginning of the year to 5.8% [1] - The short position in the Nasdaq 100 has expanded from less than 5.2% to approximately 6.1% [1] Group 2: Market Performance Comparison - The S&P 500 index has seen a year-to-date increase of only 6%, which is significantly lower than the average gains of 15%-20% in major global markets [1] - S3 Partners highlights that only a few major global indices have underperformed the S&P 500, contributing to its lagging growth compared to the global average [1]

当下，美国正深陷"关税—通胀—衰退"三角困局。在这个历史 转折点上，中国打出的这张牌可谓中美博弈下的政策组合拳 ——它是一次有力度的"宽信用+对冲风险"组合。 作者：欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 非常时期非常政策。 当美联储主席鲍威尔在华盛顿反复强调"需要更多数据"，而人民币汇率在"五一"假期表现出足够 的底气时，中国央行率先出手，宣布"双降"（降准与降息），宽松政策先于美联储落地。 5月7日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局（下称"金融 监管总局"）、中国证券监督管理委员会三大金融管理部门联合发布"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳 预期"的措施。 中国人民银行宣布，下调政策操作利率10个基点，下调再贷款利率0.25个百分点，下调个人住房公 积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，将科技创新与技术改造再贷款额度从5000亿元提升至8000亿元，设 立5000亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"等10项增量政策。 这10项政策可归为三大类：一是数量型政策，通过降准等措施，直接增加流动性供应，降低存款 准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；二是价格型政策，7天期逆回购 利率下调10个 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a "double reduction" policy, which includes a cut in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, ahead of the Federal Reserve's actions, indicating a proactive approach to monetary policy [1][2] - The PBOC announced a 10 basis point reduction in policy operation rates and a 0.25 percentage point cut in both the re-lending rate and the personal housing provident fund loan rate, alongside increasing the re-lending quota for technological innovation from 500 billion to 800 billion yuan [2][3] - A total of ten new policies were introduced, categorized into three types: quantity-based policies to increase liquidity, price-based policies to lower funding costs, and structural policies to support key sectors such as technology and consumption [2][3] Group 2 - The financial regulatory authorities in China are set to introduce eight new policies aimed at adapting financing systems to new real estate development models and supporting small and micro enterprises [3][4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focusing on stabilizing the market and promoting long-term capital inflow, with measures including enhancing operations by the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. and reforming the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [3][4] - The coordinated efforts of the three major financial management departments reflect a break from previous market concerns regarding delayed or hesitant policy responses [3][5] Group 3 - The current economic environment in the U.S. is characterized by a "tariff-inflation-recession" triangle, which is challenging the independence of monetary policy and creating initial cracks in the dollar's hegemonic foundation [5][6] - The Chinese government's recent policy measures are seen as a strategic move in the context of U.S.-China economic negotiations, aiming to create a "policy buffer" ahead of high-level talks [6][7] - The A-share market responded positively to the policy announcements, indicating market confidence in the measures taken, although the reaction was more rational compared to previous policy-induced exuberance [6][7]