在行业调整的"至暗时刻"，这份逆势增长的合同负债背后，是渠道对行业、对酒企的信心坚守。那么，究竟是什么支撑了这份信心？哪些举措缓解了渠道压 力？记者将通过数据拆解与案例分析，探寻白酒渠道信心的来源，以及厂商关系正在发生的深层变革。业绩低迷背后现暖意： 白酒合同负债逆势增至390亿 头部酒企成增长主力 近年来，在产能增长与需求放缓、消费动能不足与价格下行、消费场景弱化与产业增长压力等多重背景之下，"高库存""内卷"成为白酒行业年度关键词。 从存货周转时间来看，截至2025年三季度末，21家白酒上市公司存货总额攀升至1709.96亿元，同比增长11.32%。值得关注的是，所有公司的存货周转天数 均出现延长，平均存货周转天数达到1424天，较去年同期的862天大幅提升65.21%。 10月30日晚间，A股白酒行业2025年第三季度业绩报告悉数披露，堪称"近十年最差"。 | 证券代码 | 证券同称 | 存货 | 存货 | 存货周转率 | 在货周转率 | 存货周转大数 | 存货周转天 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 今年1-9月 | 去 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kweichow Moutai's recent stock buyback and share repurchase actions indicate a response to declining stock prices and market confidence, raising questions about the company's long-term performance and market strategy [1][3][5]. Group 1: Buyback and Shareholding Actions - Kweichow Moutai announced its first-ever stock buyback, investing 6 billion yuan to repurchase shares, which were subsequently canceled, reducing the total share capital and increasing the value of remaining shares [1][3]. - The major shareholder, Moutai Group, plans to increase its stake by 3 to 3.3 billion yuan, signaling confidence in the company's future despite recent stock price declines from 2600 yuan to around 1200 yuan [3][5]. - The timing of the buyback coincided with a significant drop in stock price, raising suspicions about whether this move reflects genuine confidence or a desperate attempt to stabilize the market [5][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Concerns - For the first three quarters of 2025, Kweichow Moutai reported revenue of 130.9 billion yuan, a growth of 6.32%, and a net profit of 64.6 billion yuan, up 6.25%, but the growth rate has significantly slowed, with Q3 revenue growth at only 0.35% [9][11]. - The company's product line shows uneven performance, with Moutai liquor revenue increasing by 7.26%, while series liquor sales plummeted by 34%, indicating a failure to establish a second growth curve [11][13]. - The wholesale channel saw a 14.39% increase, but direct sales dropped by 14.87%, with the once-promising "i Moutai" revenue halving, suggesting reliance on distributors for performance rather than direct sales [11][15]. Group 3: Industry Context and Challenges - The challenges faced by Kweichow Moutai reflect broader issues within the Chinese liquor industry, which is experiencing a downturn characterized by reduced consumption and high inventory levels [13][15]. - High-end liquor prices are under pressure, with competitors like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao seeing significant price drops, indicating a tough market environment [15][17]. - Despite a 38% market share for top brands, the sustainability of Kweichow Moutai's premium pricing and brand reputation is in question if high-end consumption does not recover [15][17].

为满足中秋家宴的饮品需求，京东七鲜自有品牌饮品销量迎来爆发式增长。其中，七鲜NFC鲜榨果汁凭 借无添加、口感纯正的特点，成为家庭聚餐的首选饮品，东哥同款的七鲜自有品牌皮尔森原浆啤酒也受 到不少消费者喜爱，麦芽香气浓郁，度数适中，适合家人朋友小酌。 国产大闸蟹也进入销售旺季，阳澄湖大闸蟹新鲜上市，京东七鲜通过与产地直连，挑选膏满黄肥的阳澄 湖大闸蟹，满足消费者对中秋应季食材的需求。与此同时，梭子蟹、海白虾、龙胆石斑鱼等鲜活海产也 是家宴食材的热门之选。不少消费者表示，七鲜的水产新鲜度有保障，而且工作人员可提供宰杀、处理 等贴心服务，省去了回家处理食材的麻烦。 秋天是瓜果飘香的季节，中秋家宴的餐桌自然少不了新鲜果蔬的点缀。京东七鲜特地推出众多时令水果 礼盒，还享受2件88折的优惠。不仅有清甜多汁、肉质细腻的人参果，有晒足2000小时以上充足日照、 颗颗饱满爆汁的突尼斯软籽石榴，还有寓意"平安"，浓香四溢、脆粉两吃的花牛苹果，以及从舌尖甜入 心窝的双色密语葡提组合等。 中秋佳节，阖家围坐共享家宴，是国人刻在骨子里的团圆仪式。随着中秋脚步日益临近，消费者筹备团 圆家宴的热情持续攀升，京东七鲜凭借众多源头直采、产地直供 ...

据"君品习酒"微信公众号消息，9月27日至28日，习酒集团董事长汪地强到陕西、天津市场走访调研。 此前9月初，汪地强与习酒集团总经理万波已分别前往河南、山东、陕西、浙江、北京、重庆、云南、 辽宁、吉林、黑龙江和贵州省内等市场开展调研。 习酒集团董事长汪地强近日赴陕西、天津市场走访调研，此前，汪地强与习酒集团总经理万波已深入调 研河南、山东等全国十余个重点市场。 习酒高层如此密集走访一线，动作不同寻常…… 密集调研背后 君品习酒五年批价跌幅最大 图片来源："君品习酒"微信公众号 据悉，此次系列调研旨在"深入了解市场前沿动态"，进一步分析形势、找准问题、统一思想、凝聚共 识，推动习酒市场营销迈上新台阶。 习酒高层如此密集走访一线，折射出企业应对市场压力的紧迫与深意。中国酒业协会联合毕马威发布的 《2025中国白酒市场中期研究报告》显示，在T9白酒品牌中，君品习酒近五年批发价格累计跌幅达 39.82%，为该阵营中跌幅最大的单品之一。数据显示，其批价从2021年6月的955元/瓶，持续下行至目 前约683元/瓶。（注：报告原文相关计算存在误差，但君品习酒在T9品牌中价格跌幅最大的情况未 变。） 此次纳入对比的其他主流 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing consumer enthusiasm for preparing family reunion dinners during the Mid-Autumn Festival, with a significant rise in demand for high-quality ingredients from JD's 7Fresh [1][9] - Various categories, including traditional mooncake gift boxes, fresh seafood, seasonal fruits and vegetables, and private label beverages, are experiencing rapid sales growth [1][5] Fresh Seafood and Seasonal Fruits - Fresh seafood, such as small blue lobsters, Boston lobsters, and king crabs, are becoming popular choices for family dinners, with JD 7Fresh ensuring freshness through direct sourcing [3] - Seasonal fruits are also in high demand, with JD 7Fresh offering various fruit gift boxes and discounts, featuring products like jujubes and pomegranates, all sourced through direct procurement to maintain freshness [5] Beverages and Gift Boxes - The sales of 7Fresh's private label beverages, particularly NFC fresh juice and craft beer, have surged, catering to family gatherings [7] - In the gift market, traditional mooncake gift boxes and themed gift sets are performing well, appealing to both corporate buyers and younger consumers [9] Supply Chain and Shopping Experience - To ensure high-quality food supply for the Mid-Autumn Festival, 7Fresh has enhanced supply chain efficiency through direct sourcing and digital inventory management [9] - Consumers can enjoy a convenient shopping experience with options for quick delivery through the JD app, making 7Fresh a preferred platform for family reunion dinner ingredients [9]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the evolving consumer demand for Mid-Autumn Festival gift boxes, focusing on innovation, health, and emotional value rather than just traditional food items [1][5][9] Group 1: Product Offerings - JD Seven Fresh offers a variety of traditional and innovative mooncakes, including brands like Maxim's and Beijing Daoxiangcun, as well as unique flavors such as black truffle and cheese [1][3] - The company has introduced health-oriented products like daily nut energy packs and ready-to-eat flower glue soup, catering to the growing trend of health consciousness among consumers [5] - Various meat and fruit gift boxes are available, including live crab vouchers from Yangcheng Lake and premium Australian beef, ensuring freshness and quality [7] Group 2: Cultural Significance - Alcohol and tea are highlighted as traditional gifts for the Mid-Autumn Festival, with JD Seven Fresh offering direct supply of quality liquor and tea products that carry cultural significance [9] - The article notes that the gift boxes serve not only as food items but also as carriers of respect and blessings, enhancing emotional connections during the festival [9] Group 3: Service Innovations - JD Seven Fresh has implemented measures to ensure timely delivery of gift boxes, allowing consumers to receive their orders within 30 minutes through various platforms [9] - The company aims to redefine the Mid-Autumn gift experience by combining health, innovation, and convenience, appealing to modern consumer preferences [9]

Group 1 - Shandong is a major province for the production and sales of Chinese liquor, with a market size of approximately 55 billion yuan in 2024, making it a competitive battleground for brands [1] - Langjiu Group's chairman, Wang Junlin, is leading efforts to strengthen the company's presence in Shandong over the next three years, despite facing challenges such as high inventory and price inversion in the industry [1] - The white liquor market is currently undergoing a deep adjustment period, with continuous price declines observed in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Langjiu's product matrix includes key items such as Qinghua Lang, Honghua Lang, and Hongyun Lang, with a focus on premium and high-end products [3] - The pricing structure of Langjiu's flagship product, Qinghua Lang, has shown significant weakness, with a price drop of 21.79% over the past five years [4] - The overall trend in the white liquor market indicates a decline in prices, with Moutai's price dropping by 36.15% since 2022, reflecting changes in consumer behavior and market dynamics [3][4] Group 3 - The competitive landscape in Shandong shows that the majority of consumers prefer strong aroma liquor, with over 70% of low-alcohol consumption in certain regions, posing a challenge for Langjiu's primarily sauce-flavored product lineup [11] - Langjiu's market position in Shandong is relatively weak compared to other brands, with a need to surpass the 1 billion yuan threshold to compete effectively [13] - The market is dominated by established brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, creating a challenging environment for new entrants like Langjiu [13][15]

Group 1: 2024 Market Characteristics - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period in 2024, showing a "declining volume but increasing profit" trend, with production down 1.8% to 4.145 million kiloliters, while sales revenue increased by 5.3% to 796.38 billion yuan [1][21][22] - The profit total reached 250.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with A-share listed liquor companies reporting a total revenue of 442.23 billion yuan, up 7.3% [1][22] - The CR6 companies (Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, and Gujinggong) accounted for 86% of the industry's total profit, indicating a significant increase in industry concentration [1][22][27] Group 2: 2025 Market Conditions - In Q1 2025, liquor production fell by 7.2% to 1.032 million kiloliters, continuing the trend of declining production [2][40] - Listed companies showed resilience with a revenue of 153.42 billion yuan, up 1.7%, and a net profit of 64.91 billion yuan, up 2.3% [2][40] - The industry faces challenges with "declining volume and price, and rising costs," as 59.7% of companies reported reduced operating profits [2][49] Group 3: Market Environment Changes and Competitive Landscape - The revised regulations in May 2025 expanded the ban on alcohol consumption, impacting market sentiment and causing a 2-3% overall decline in the liquor sector [3] - The CR6 brands accounted for 87.6% of the revenue of the 20 A-share liquor brands in Q1 2025, indicating further concentration in the market [4] - The younger consumer demographic is emerging, with those born between 1985 and 1994 becoming a key market segment, although business and management personnel still represent 85.1% of the consumer base [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Development Suggestions - Companies are adopting pragmatic strategies, with 64.9% focusing on core products and 40.4% targeting the mass market [5] - Recommendations for industry health include optimizing capacity and focusing on high-quality development, with a shift from quantity-driven growth to quality-driven strategies [6] - Emphasis on digital marketing and technological innovation is crucial, with 34.9% of companies prioritizing instant retail channel expansion [7] Group 5: Online Sales and Consumer Behavior - Online sales in the first five months of 2025 exceeded 60 million bottles, generating over 30 billion yuan, although national brands are struggling with growth [2][53] - The average online sales revenue for A-share listed companies was 5.0% of total revenue, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [53] - Consumer behavior is shifting, with a notable decline in traditional consumption scenarios, leading to a decrease in demand during holiday periods [63][70]

行 业 研 究 投资摘要： 每周一谈：消费预期有望逐步回升 关注大众品修复机会 消费预期有望逐步回升，白酒龙头厂家主动调整增长节奏。上周食品饮料指数 涨幅居前，在近期市场整体回升背景下，低估值的顺周期板块有望逐步受到市 场重视。政策把提振消费摆到更加突出位置，我们认为后续宏观增量政策空间 或主要在于促消费领域，食品饮料各子行业需求改善可期。根据 21 世纪经济 报道消息，房地产市场有所复苏，春节后重点一二线城市的供应量、看房量、 交易量等在快速回升，部分城市房价有所提升。同时，宏观经济指标中社零和 CPI 等有望提振，或将带动消费板块投资情绪回升。 消费预期有望逐步回升 关注大众品修复 部分酒企核心大单品前期相继宣布停货、控货，我们认为酒企控货动作或逐步 推动批价企稳回升。目前白酒行业价格及库存压力仍存，旺季短期上量后渠道 仍将处于去库存周期中，龙头厂家主动调整增长节奏，年内报表压力或逐季度 得到释放。分场景看，宴席和商务场景在 2025 年的回补有望带动各价位带全 国化代表品牌、地产酒和大众价位的出货。白酒板块建议从场景承接、区域格 局优化、渠道率先出清、分红率提升角度寻找白酒投资标的，关注徽酒苏酒等 地产 ...