Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the opening rate of tire enterprises is expected to have little overall fluctuation. The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,400 yuan/ton [2]. - Next week, after the restart of Yanshan Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical, and Heze Kexin, the domestic supply increment will gradually appear, and the inventory of production enterprises is expected to increase. In terms of demand, the current production of enterprises tends to be stable, and orders in the middle and late ten - days are expected to increase slightly, which will still have a small driving effect on the overall opening [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,285 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 410 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 48,828, with a week - on - week increase of 237 [2]. - The spread between August and September of synthetic rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber is 2,390 tons, with no change [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,000 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,000 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 225 yuan/ton; the price of Brent crude oil is 65.25 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 US dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 820 US dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 68.51 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,100 US dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.77 million tons, with no change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.96%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 20,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,600 tons; the opening rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 47.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.17 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 65.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 percentage points [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 632 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 106 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 32,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 25,650 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 850 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 330 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The opening rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 75.99%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.07 percentage points; the opening rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.1%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.262 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.523 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 40.85 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.18 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.18 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 days [2]. Industry News - As of July 23, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.22% compared with the previous period [2]. - As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a week - on - week increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points [2]. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short - term, the br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,400 yuan/ton. Last week, influenced by the weak raw material market and continuous shipping pressure, domestic cis - butadiene rubber enterprise inventories decreased slightly. However, downstream shipping pressure remains high, and production enterprise and trading enterprise inventories are expected to increase slightly. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, but this week, as enterprise maintenance ends, it will enter the production recovery phase, which will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,310 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 27,783 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 250 lots. The spread between August and September for synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 1,600 tons, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,400 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The basis of synthetic rubber is 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is $70.15 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of $0.57; the price of WTI crude oil is $68.33 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of $0.4. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is $820 per ton, with no week - on - week change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is $586.5 per ton, with a week - on - week increase of $9.5; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is $1,060 per ton, with no week - on - week change. The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 300 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 147,800 tons, with no week - on - week change; the utilization rate of butadiene production capacity is 70.91%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.16 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 22,330 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,120 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 44.97%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Production and Inventory of Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber production capacity is 66.98%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.56 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 164 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 414 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 33,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons; the weekly enterprise inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,350 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 430 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.64 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 63.75%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.89 percentage points. The monthly production of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 40.45 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.48 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.67 days [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of July 3, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,200 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous period (June 25, 2025), a week - on - week decrease of 2.56%. As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 64.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.85 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.96 percentage points. In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold approximately 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% from May and a year - on - year increase of approximately 29%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were approximately 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of approximately 6% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost support for butadiene rubber production has weakened due to relatively sufficient supply of raw material butadiene and weak cost - side and bearish macro - economic expectations. Traders are selling at a negative spread, with a slight increase in producers' inventory and a slight decrease in traders' inventory last week. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline last week. Although the output of some enterprises will gradually return to normal as they restart after maintenance, the overall order performance of tire enterprises is average, the de - stocking pace of finished products is slow, and some enterprises still have maintenance plans, which will limit the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. - The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 22,981, a decrease of 1,899; the synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 5,780 tons, a decrease of 170 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies (Qilu, Daqing, and Maoming) in different regions (Shandong, Shanghai, and Guangdong) was in the range of 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the basis of synthetic rubber was 350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 68.02%, a decrease of 1.28 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 27,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 47%, an increase of 0.91 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 12.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.68 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 67.25%, a decrease of 6.29 percentage points; the weekly production profit was - 882 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory was 3.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 28,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons; the trader's inventory was 5,680 tons, a decrease of 680 tons [2]. - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.86%, a decrease of 4.39 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.47%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 41.87 days, a decrease of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 45.84 days, a decrease of 0.38 days [2]. 4. Industry News - As of June 5, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.40 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons from the previous period (May 28, 2025), a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. - As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.58 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.80%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.40 percentage points. - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April and a year - on - year increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2].