Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice on November 20, emphasizing the need for member units to maintain market stability and implement risk control measures due to recent market volatility [1] - Gold prices have experienced a correction since reaching a historical high of $4,381.484 per ounce on October 20, but remain elevated, with a year-to-date increase of 55.36% as of November 19 [2] - Analysts expect gold prices to continue fluctuating at high levels, influenced by upcoming U.S. employment data and statements from Federal Reserve officials, indicating a likely lack of a clear trend in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - Major state-owned banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and China Construction Bank (CCB), have suspended certain gold accumulation services due to macroeconomic policy changes and fluctuations in gold prices, indicating a need for risk management adjustments in the banking sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Business Adjustments - ICBC announced the suspension of its "Ruyi Gold Accumulation" services, including real-time purchases and physical gold exchanges, but later restored these services on the same day [1][2]. - CCB also suspended its "Easy Storage Gold" services for real-time purchases and physical gold exchanges, while existing customers' plans remain unaffected [2][3]. - Banks are raising investment thresholds for gold accumulation services; for instance, ICBC increased the minimum investment from 850 yuan to 1000 yuan, while Industrial Bank raised its threshold from 1000 yuan to 1200 yuan [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The adjustments in banking services are attributed to recent announcements from the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation regarding gold tax policies, necessitating banks to adapt their systems and operations [3]. - Global economic conditions have led to significant fluctuations in international gold prices, increasing market risks and uncertainties [3][4]. Group 3: Investor Guidance - Banks have issued warnings to investors about the heightened volatility in gold prices, advising them to manage their investment positions carefully and consider their financial situations and risk tolerance [4]. - Investment experts suggest that while short-term gold prices may face downward pressure, there is potential for a rebound in the medium to long term [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - The international gold price is fluctuating at a high level, which is expected to promote gold jewelry consumption due to its value preservation and appreciation attributes. After the public gradually accepts high gold prices, terminal consumption is likely to rebound [10][15] - The luxury goods market in China is showing signs of recovery, with significant performance differentiation among luxury groups in Q3. LVMH and Prada exceeded expectations, indicating a positive trend in the luxury sector [4][33] Summary by Sections Gold and Jewelry - The international gold price is currently at 935.60 RMB per gram as of October 24, 2025. The expectation of a continuous interest rate cut cycle in the U.S. supports a bullish outlook on gold prices, which may lead to a recovery in terminal consumption as the public adapts to high prices [10][15] - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies with a high proportion of fixed-price products, such as Laopu Gold, which benefits from stable pricing amid rising gold prices. Other companies to watch include Chaohongji and Mankalon [15] Duty-Free and Tourism - The new duty-free policies in Hainan are expected to significantly boost tourist flow and consumption. The policies include expanding the range of duty-free goods and allowing more categories of domestic products to be sold duty-free [19][21] - The tourism sector is recovering, with domestic travel increasing by 18.0% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 4.85 trillion RMB in spending. Companies like Changbai Mountain and Dalian Shengya are recommended for investment, especially during the upcoming winter tourism season [27][29] Luxury Goods - Prada reported a revenue of 1.33 billion euros in Q3 2025, with an 8% year-on-year increase, maintaining a strong growth momentum for 19 consecutive quarters. The brand Miu Miu was a significant growth driver with a 28.6% increase [33][34] - LVMH's revenue reached 18.28 billion euros in Q3 2025, marking a 1% growth, with notable improvements in various business segments, particularly in the beauty sector, which is expected to drive future growth [64][69] - Kering Group's revenue declined by 5% in Q3 2025, but the decrease was less severe than expected, indicating a potential recovery in the luxury market [40][46]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals futures continue to show strong performance, with Shanghai silver futures rising over 2%. Analysts indicate that the main short-term market disturbance factors remain tariff policies, and it is expected that the silver price's upward trend will continue, while gold prices are likely to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term [1]. Group 1 - Precious metals futures are performing strongly, particularly with Shanghai silver futures increasing by more than 2% [1] - Short-term market disturbances are primarily driven by tariff policies [1] - The upward trend in silver prices is expected to persist [1] - Gold prices are anticipated to continue experiencing high-level fluctuations in the short term [1]