Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the diminishing safe-haven appeal of gold amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, highlighting the contrasting performance of oil and gold prices during this geopolitical turmoil [2]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold's Diminished Safe-Haven Status - The US-Iran conflict has reached a stalemate, limiting the intensity and scope of the conflict, which has reduced the upward momentum for gold prices [2]. - The "see-saw effect" between oil and gold prices is evident, where rising oil prices due to supply shocks lead to increased inflation concerns, subsequently diminishing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which negatively impacts gold prices [6]. Group 2: Limited Downside for Gold - The trading dynamics suggest that when the implied volatility (IV) of gold exceeds 30%, the maximum short-term drawdown is typically around 20%-25%. Recent data indicates that gold's IV reached 31%, with a maximum drawdown of 24.4% observed [8]. - The policy environment indicates that significant further declines in gold prices below $4,000 per ounce would require a sustained increase in interest rate hike expectations, which are currently not anticipated by the market [10]. Group 3: Weak Foundations for Short-Term Gold Rebound - Current oil supply shocks are identified as a major risk factor, with recent events causing Brent crude oil prices to approach $120 per barrel, leading to a rapid decline in gold prices from over $5,000 per ounce to around $4,500 [13]. - Efforts by the US to stabilize oil prices through the easing of sanctions on Iranian oil are deemed insufficient, as the release of 140 million barrels would only cover global consumption for 1-2 days [17]. - The low cost of blocking the Strait of Hormuz by Iran poses a challenge for restoring oil flow to pre-conflict levels, complicating the outlook for gold prices amid persistent inflation concerns [19].

Market Observation - The market is questioning the safe-haven property of gold as its price has not reacted positively to the recent US-Iran conflict, which has led to a significant rise in oil prices and the US dollar[1] - The current geopolitical situation has caused gold's safe-haven appeal to diminish, primarily due to the conflict being largely contained between the US, Israel, and Iran[11] Reasons for Limited Downside in Gold - The maximum drawdown for gold has reached 24.4%, nearing the critical threshold of 25%, suggesting limited further downside potential[17] - Historical data indicates that when the implied volatility (IV) of gold options exceeds 30%, the maximum drawdown typically ranges from 20% to 25%[17] - The market has priced in no interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for 2026, and any significant drop below $4,000 per ounce may require an increase in interest rate expectations[20] Short-Term Rebound Concerns - The foundation for a short-term rebound in gold is considered weak due to the ongoing oil supply shocks, which have led to oil prices nearing $120 per barrel, negatively impacting gold prices[22] - The US's measures to stabilize oil prices are deemed insufficient, as the release of 140 million barrels of Iranian oil would only cover global consumption for 1-2 days[25] - The probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to pre-conflict flow levels is now below 30%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures that could challenge gold's rebound sustainability[25] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to adopt a strategy of "slow rise, fast fall" in gold investments, focusing on buying during short-term dips to lower long-term holding costs[28] Risk Factors - Potential aggressive policies from the Trump administration could lead to stagflation or recession in the US, increasing economic risks[29] - Unexpected tariff expansions could slow global economic growth significantly, impacting market stability[29] - Rising geopolitical tensions may lead to increased asset price volatility, complicating investment strategies[29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Emphasize the tail risk of the Iran situation, which has a significant impact on the prices of crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and may drive up the prices of oil - chemical and oilseed products, while also causing concerns about inflation and economic recession [1] - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds after the Two Sessions. The US economy shows signs of slowdown, and China's economic data shows some positive trends [2] - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and Israel carried out an air strike on Iran on February 28, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a large - scale counter - attack. The conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day expectation of the US and Israel, and there is a risk of the US increasing troops. The tail risk of the Iran situation has risen sharply [1] - The conflict has damaged energy and production facilities in the Middle East and surrounding areas, disrupted the production and supply chain, and severely blocked the passage of the Strait of Hormuz. The continuous rise in oil prices has driven up oil - chemical and oilseed products and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession [1] - Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated that Iran will not give up revenge, will continue to take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and may open new fronts if necessary [1][6] Domestic Two Sessions - The 2026 government work report proposed an economic growth target of 4.5% - 5%, a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan (an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year), and a general public budget expenditure scale of 30 trillion yuan for the first time (an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan from the previous year). An ultra - long - term special treasury bond of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued [2] - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure. After the Two Sessions, the stock index rebounds, especially the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2] Commodity Market - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. The non - ferrous metal sector, precious metals, and oil prices are inversely correlated. Rising inflation reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts and increases the risk of recession [3] - The IEA has approved the release of a record - high 4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. Japan will release about 80 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, Germany will release 2.4 million tons of reserves, and the US will start releasing SPR next week [3][6] - The conflict has led to the largest - ever supply disruption, with a daily reduction of 8 million barrels in global oil supply this month and a more than 90% drop in the transit flow of the Strait of Hormuz [3][6] - Oil price increases have a significant driving effect on oil - chemical products such as pure benzene, EB, PVC, PTA, ethylene glycol, and methanol, and the oilseed products in the agricultural sector are also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices [3] - The black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3] Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [4]