Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Volatility - The upcoming "Triple Witching Day" on Friday is expected to involve $6.5 trillion in options contracts expiring, marking one of the largest expirations in history [1] - Citigroup estimates that $5.8 trillion in open positions will expire, including $4.2 trillion in index options, $708 billion in ETF options, and $819 billion in individual stock options [3] - The current market is in a positive gamma state, but the expiration of options may shift market makers' hedging from stabilizing to amplifying, potentially leading to increased volatility if the S&P 500 index breaks the key 6000 level [4] Group 2: Hong Kong Dollar and Market Reactions - The Hong Kong dollar is approaching the weak-side convertibility guarantee level of 7.85, raising concerns about liquidity tightening in the market [5][6] - The rapid switch from strong to weak-side guarantees is attributed to significant inflows into Hong Kong stocks, with net purchases exceeding HKD 690 billion this year [9] - If the HKD reaches 7.85, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority is expected to withdraw liquidity, which could lead to a tightening of financing costs and impact the stock market, particularly in sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [12][20] Group 3: Market Performance and Trends - Following the HKD's approach to the weak-side guarantee, the innovative pharmaceutical sector in Hong Kong has experienced a decline, with related indices dropping over 10% [14][15] - Despite the market's concerns, there has been a net inflow of HKD 3.42 billion into ETFs tracking innovative pharmaceuticals during the recent downturn, indicating some investor confidence [17] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index showed a rebound, suggesting that market sentiment may not be as negative as previously thought [20]

随着美股期权市场的规模日益庞大，史上最大规模"三巫日"的头衔在过去几年已被屡次刷新。而本 周五，结束了周四"六月节"假期的美股投资者，也将纷纷为潜在规模可能高至6.5万亿的美股期权集 中到期"海啸"做好准备，这可能会令美股遭遇过往更大幅度的波动。 美股"三巫日"是指股指期货、股指期权和个股期权这三种合约同时到期。这一季度性事件每年 会遭遇四次，通常发生在三月、六月、九月和十二月的第三个星期五，并伴随着美国股市交易 量的放大和波动性的加剧。 由于计算任何一天到期的上市衍生品数量并没有一个业内统一的标准方法——这取决于在该数 字中包含了哪类资产类别和合约，因此华尔街各机构对于"三巫日"到期期权规模的统计数字往 往也各有差异。 不过， 从此次"三巫日"的情况看，一个共识是规模将相当巨大。 此外，研究公司Asym 500 LLC的创始人Rocky Fishman给出的数字更是达到了惊 人的6.5万亿美元，因其对股指期权到期规模的预估比花旗等投行都要多。Fishman 表示，周五的期权到期日将是"有史以来最大规模之一"。 "三巫日"会如何影响市场？ Fishman表示，自五月初以来，美国股市的日常波动相对受限，这种情况 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are preparing for the expiration of $6.5 trillion in nominal value U.S. options this Friday, which may lead to increased volatility in the stock market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The phenomenon known as "triple witching" occurs when multiple categories of derivative contracts expire simultaneously, which could result in sudden market fluctuations after the expiration date [1]. - Since early May, the U.S. stock market has experienced relatively mild intraday volatility, partly due to a "pinning effect" from a large number of put options established earlier in the year [1]. - The "pinning effect" refers to the tendency of stock prices to close near the strike prices of heavily traded options as expiration approaches, which has helped stabilize the market [1]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - In early April, many pessimistic investors bought hedging tools against market declines and financed these protective positions by selling call options slightly above the current level of the S&P 500 index (5981 points) [2]. - Market makers and brokers' actions to hedge their positions can significantly impact the stock market, contributing to overall market dynamics [2]. - The market is currently in a "positive gamma" state, where participants tend to sell on price increases and buy on declines, thus suppressing volatility [2]. Group 3: Special Significance of Upcoming Expiration - Research from Citigroup indicates that the upcoming triple witching day has "special significance," with an estimated $5.8 trillion in nominal outstanding equity options expiring, including $4.2 trillion in index options, $708 billion in U.S. ETF options, and $819 billion in individual stock options [3]. - The higher figure of approximately $6.5 trillion mentioned by Rocky Fishman includes the nominal value of index futures options, which will also expire on Friday [4].

智通财经APP获悉，投资者正为本周五即将到期的6.5万亿美元名义价值的美国期权做好准备，这可能 会让股市重新出现更大幅度的波动。 每个季度，多个不同类别的交易所衍生品合约会在同一天同时到期，这一现象在市场观察人士中被称 为"三巫日(triple witching)"。虽然市场并不预期周五当天就会出现剧烈波动，但这一天之后，股市可能 会重新面临突然波动的风险。 自5月初以来，美国股市的日内波动一直相对温和，这部分得益于年初大量建立的看跌期权交易所带来 的"钉仓效应"。所谓"钉仓效应(pinning)"，是指在期权到期日临近时，股价倾向于靠近成交量较大的期 权执行价附近收盘。在当时，标普500指数反弹至接近历史高点的可能性看起来非常渺茫。研究机构 Asym 500 LLC的创始人Rocky Fishman表示，这些交易帮助市场维持了稳定。 今年4月初，在关税引发市场剧烈波动之际，许多悲观的投资者买入了股市下跌的对冲工具，并通过在 标普500指数当前水平(5981点)稍上方卖出看涨期权，为这些保护性仓位融资。Rocky Fishman表示："过 去几个月我们一直在应对关税风波，当时很多人认为6000点这个水平难以触 ...