周一，美国交易所运营商Cboe Global Markets正寻求延长美股股权期权的交易时段，进一步推动美国市 场向"接近全天候"交易靠拢。根据向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交的文件，Cboe计划在常规9:30-16:00 之外新增两个时段，即7:30-9:25的早盘延长时段，以及16:00-16:15的收盘后时段。 新冠疫情之后，延长交易时段需求大幅抬升，因投资者需要在夜间及时应对突发市场事件。多家交易平 台已陆续支持延长交易。Robinhood(HOOD.US)和盈透(IBKR.US)等券商目前已经允许投资者在场外系 统(如Blue Ocean与Bruce Markets)实现美股"24小时×5天"交易。 Cboe今年早些时候也曾提案，拟将其股票交易从周日晚持续至周五晚，仅在周末停止。如果未来要让 全天候交易真正登陆纳斯达克或纽交所等交易所层面，则需清算机构DTCC及SIP(证券信息处理系统)基 础设施同步升级。DTCC已宣布将从明年第二季起延长清算窗口，SIP也正在评估将交易数据覆盖扩展 至"准24小时"。 此举契合美国交易时段延长的大趋势，交易所正尝试配合海外投资者需求，以及扩展与标的股票市场交 易 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming "Triple Witching Day" on Friday is set to be the largest in history, with over $5 trillion in U.S. stock options and futures contracts expiring, which is expected to inject more uncertainty into market trends [1] - "Triple Witching Day" occurs on the third Friday of each quarter, when stock index futures, stock index options, and individual stock options all expire simultaneously [1] - Goldman Sachs options expert John Marshall estimates that over $5.3 trillion in nominal value of options will expire this Friday, including $3 trillion in S&P 500 index options and $935 billion in individual stock options [1] - The total nominal value of expiring options is equivalent to 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 index, marking the highest scale for September's "Triple Witching Day" in history [1] - According to options analysis firm SpotGamma, nearly 90% of the expiring positions are call options, and as these positions are closed, the long stock positions held by traders for hedging will be unwound, indicating a significant loss of market buying support [1] - For short-term market trends, Goldman Sachs predicts that the market's rebound momentum is likely to continue until the options expiration event is completed, which is typically associated with a "gamma squeeze" effect before expiration, followed by a pullback in the following week [1]

Core Insights - The upcoming "Triple Witching Day" on Friday is set to be the largest in history, with over $5 trillion in U.S. stock options and futures contracts expiring on the same day, introducing significant uncertainty to market trends [1] - Goldman Sachs estimates that more than $5.3 trillion in nominal value of options will expire, including $3 trillion in S&P 500 index options and $935 billion in individual stock options [1] - This expiration represents 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 index, marking the highest scale for a September "Triple Witching Day" [1] Market Dynamics - According to options analysis firm SpotGamma, nearly 90% of the expiring positions are call options, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [1] - As these positions expire, the long stock positions held by traders for hedging will be unwound, suggesting a significant loss of market buying support [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the market's rebound momentum is likely to continue until the options expiration event is completed, typically associated with a "gamma squeeze" effect before the expiration, followed by a potential pullback the following week [1]

Core Viewpoint - Futu Holdings is experiencing structural growth potential beyond traditional brokerage cycles, driven by clear advancements in its cryptocurrency business and strong performance in overseas markets [1][10]. Cryptocurrency Business Progress - Morgan Stanley highlights that Futu's cryptocurrency business, although in its early stages, is showing rapid progress with key data indicating significant growth [2][4]. - The company has introduced a long-term strategy named "RACE" to guide the future development of its cryptocurrency business, emphasizing user adoption and potential fee increases as market penetration grows [4][18]. - In Q2 2025, the value of customer-held cryptocurrency assets increased by 40% quarter-over-quarter, reaching HKD 4 billion, while daily trading volume doubled from approximately USD 20 million to USD 40 million [5]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Barclays has raised its financial forecasts for Futu, increasing the adjusted net income predictions for FY 2025 by 22% and for FY 2026 by 36.4%, maintaining a target valuation multiple of 15x EV/nominal EBITDA [14]. - Morgan Stanley has updated its valuation model, raising the target price for Futu from USD 160 to USD 210, reflecting a potential revaluation of the company based on its growth prospects [1][11]. Overseas Market Expansion - Futu's global strategy is yielding results, with significant contributions from overseas markets, particularly in Singapore and Japan, where client assets and trading volumes have seen substantial increases [8][10]. - In Q2 2025, client assets in Singapore grew by 26% quarter-over-quarter, while trading volumes in Japan surged by 50%, driven by localized products and AI tools [10]. Revenue and Profitability Projections - The removal of a previously applied 50% discount on revenue contributions from the cryptocurrency business has led to an 8% increase in revenue forecasts and an 11% increase in net profit projections for 2027 [18]. - The new target price of USD 210 corresponds to a P/E ratio of 25x based on expected earnings for 2026, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on future cash flow growth [18].

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Morgan Stanley's electronic equity options market-making business by Citadel Securities signifies a shift in the trading landscape, where high-frequency trading firms are taking over markets traditionally dominated by investment banks [1][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Citadel Securities has acquired Morgan Stanley's electronic equity options market-making business, which includes designated market maker (DPM) positions on major exchanges such as Cboe, Nasdaq, NYSE, and MIAX [3][5]. - The transaction was completed in July, although the price remains undisclosed [3]. - Morgan Stanley was the last major bank actively involved in electronic market-making on Wall Street [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Citadel processed over 20% of U.S. stock trading volume in Q1 2025, generating profits of $1.7 billion during the same period [5]. - Citadel has become the leading market maker in U.S. equity options, reflecting a broader trend of banks exiting high-frequency market-making due to regulatory reforms post-2008 financial crisis [5][7]. - High-frequency trading firms like Citadel, Jane Street, and Susquehanna have rapidly gained market share due to their technological and scale advantages [5][7]. Group 3: Retail Trading Trends - Options trading has surged in popularity among retail investors, with Citadel capturing approximately one-third of the payment for order flow (PFOF) market, compared to Morgan Stanley's 6% [7]. - The growth in retail options trading is driven by the low-cost and high-leverage characteristics of options, attracting significant participation from retail investors [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Citadel's acquisition is part of a broader strategy to expand into more asset classes, positioning itself as a new core player in Wall Street's financial infrastructure [7]. - The exit of traditional banks like Morgan Stanley from electronic market-making indicates a declining role for these institutions in this sector, while high-frequency trading firms are increasingly embedding algorithm-driven trading systems into market structures [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "Triple Witching Day" in the U.S. stock market is expected to be unprecedented in scale, with potential options expiring worth up to $6.5 trillion, which could lead to significant market volatility [1][6]. Group 1: Scale of Options Expiration - The latest "Triple Witching Day" is projected to see over $6 trillion in index, stock, and ETF options expiring, marking it as potentially the largest in history [2]. - Citigroup estimates that $5.8 trillion in notional value of open positions will expire, including $4.2 trillion in index options, $708 billion in ETF options, and $819 billion in individual stock options [2]. - Goldman Sachs' derivatives expert estimates that over $5.9 trillion in notional options exposure will expire, including $4 trillion in S&P 500 index options and $925 billion in individual stock options [2]. Group 2: Market Impact and Dynamics - The expiration of options may lead to a "pinning effect," where stock prices tend to close near the strike prices of actively traded options as the expiration date approaches [7]. - The S&P 500 index is currently close to the 6000-point mark, which is a significant psychological level for traders, influencing their options strategies [8]. - The concentration of S&P 500 options expiration around key round numbers like 6000 could lead to substantial market impacts as market makers hedge their positions [9]. Group 3: Unique Circumstances of This Triple Witching Day - This "Triple Witching Day" is unique as it follows a market holiday, which has not occurred since at least 2000, adding complexity to market participants' strategies [10]. - The combination of a holiday and a high-volume expiration day may lead to unusual volatility, as trading volumes could be lower due to participants taking extended weekends [10]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Iran conflict, have contributed to increased market volatility, pushing the VIX index above 20, which may affect options pricing [10][11].

Group 1 - The current interest rate environment, with rates above 5%, is creating both challenges and opportunities in the market, particularly affecting growth stock valuations in the US and liquidity in Hong Kong stocks [1][3] - Companies with strong cash flow, such as subscription-based software firms and industrial giants, are well-positioned to navigate the current economic climate, with Microsoft averaging over $60 billion in operating cash flow annually over the past three years [3] - In the Hong Kong market, investors should focus on "interest rate immune" stocks, such as Macau gaming stocks, which are benefiting from consumer recovery and have already absorbed pressure from dollar-denominated debt [3] Group 2 - Asset allocation strategies should involve a "dynamic balancing" approach, increasing exposure to high-dividend Hong Kong state-owned enterprises when US Treasury yields rise, and gradually shifting to US biotech stocks when interest rate expectations ease [3][5] - Currency fluctuations can be leveraged as a tool for investment, with Hong Kong dollar-denominated assets providing natural hedging advantages, such as Southeast Asian REITs listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3] - Investors are encouraged to view the interest rate cycle as a stress test for their portfolios, utilizing intelligent allocation systems to identify valuation discrepancies across markets, such as the historical dividend premium of Hong Kong telecom giants [5]

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing volatility, with significant declines in both US and European stocks following recent comments from Trump, leading to a surge in gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - There is speculation about a potential repeat of the "Black Thursday" scenario on June 1, similar to the market turmoil witnessed on April 2 [1] - Goldman Sachs analyst Alec Phillips highlights a potential positive risk that the US International Trade Court may rule on a preliminary injunction that could nullify tariffs announced by Trump on April 2, although the likelihood of approval is low [1] Group 2 - Recommendations for following key accounts for investment insights include "Lao Xu Talks Overseas," which focuses on practical strategies in options trading and market analysis [2] - "Cycle Snow Master" is suggested for those interested in hedging against US stock risks and understanding market sentiment and trends [3] - "Lao Jiu's Low Buy Notes" emphasizes a logical approach to identifying undervalued stocks, while "Value Investment Old Ghost" focuses on long-term value and avoiding market pitfalls [4]