加密货币业务的明确进展和海外市场的强劲表现，为富途带来了超越传统券商业务周期的结构性增长潜力。大摩认为，这种增长前景的明朗化足以支撑 更高的估值倍数，意味着市场可能对富途进行"价值重估"。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利21日发布研报，将富途控股的目标价从160美元大幅上调至210美元，并重申其为"行业首选"。 此举背后有两大核心驱动力：首先，富途的加密货币业务展现出强劲的增长势头和清晰的长期战略，正成为其关键的结构性增长引擎；其次，其海外扩 张战略成果显著，尤其在新加坡和日本市场，新增客户资产贡献显著提升。 与此同时，巴克莱在21日的研报中全面上调了对富途的财务预测。对2025财年的调整后净收入预测上调了22.0%，2026财年则上调了36.4%。报告维持 了15倍EV/名义EBITDA的目标估值倍数不变，从而将富途的目标价从176美元大幅上调32%至232美元，并重申"增持"评级。 更重要的是，富途公布了名为"RACE"的长期战略，为其加密业务的未来发展提供了清晰蓝图： 管理层同时表示，当前在香港市场的低费率旨在鼓励用户接纳，未来随着渗透率提升，有足够空间上调费率。这些细节强化了大摩的观点，即加密货币 将成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Morgan Stanley's electronic equity options market-making business by Citadel Securities signifies a shift in the trading landscape, where high-frequency trading firms are taking over markets traditionally dominated by investment banks [1][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Citadel Securities has acquired Morgan Stanley's electronic equity options market-making business, which includes designated market maker (DPM) positions on major exchanges such as Cboe, Nasdaq, NYSE, and MIAX [3][5]. - The transaction was completed in July, although the price remains undisclosed [3]. - Morgan Stanley was the last major bank actively involved in electronic market-making on Wall Street [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Citadel processed over 20% of U.S. stock trading volume in Q1 2025, generating profits of $1.7 billion during the same period [5]. - Citadel has become the leading market maker in U.S. equity options, reflecting a broader trend of banks exiting high-frequency market-making due to regulatory reforms post-2008 financial crisis [5][7]. - High-frequency trading firms like Citadel, Jane Street, and Susquehanna have rapidly gained market share due to their technological and scale advantages [5][7]. Group 3: Retail Trading Trends - Options trading has surged in popularity among retail investors, with Citadel capturing approximately one-third of the payment for order flow (PFOF) market, compared to Morgan Stanley's 6% [7]. - The growth in retail options trading is driven by the low-cost and high-leverage characteristics of options, attracting significant participation from retail investors [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Citadel's acquisition is part of a broader strategy to expand into more asset classes, positioning itself as a new core player in Wall Street's financial infrastructure [7]. - The exit of traditional banks like Morgan Stanley from electronic market-making indicates a declining role for these institutions in this sector, while high-frequency trading firms are increasingly embedding algorithm-driven trading systems into market structures [7][10].

随着美股期权市场的规模日益庞大，史上最大规模"三巫日"的头衔在过去几年已被屡次刷新。而本 周五，结束了周四"六月节"假期的美股投资者，也将纷纷为潜在规模可能高至6.5万亿的美股期权集 中到期"海啸"做好准备，这可能会令美股遭遇过往更大幅度的波动。 美股"三巫日"是指股指期货、股指期权和个股期权这三种合约同时到期。这一季度性事件每年 会遭遇四次，通常发生在三月、六月、九月和十二月的第三个星期五，并伴随着美国股市交易 量的放大和波动性的加剧。 由于计算任何一天到期的上市衍生品数量并没有一个业内统一的标准方法——这取决于在该数 字中包含了哪类资产类别和合约，因此华尔街各机构对于"三巫日"到期期权规模的统计数字往 往也各有差异。 不过， 从此次"三巫日"的情况看，一个共识是规模将相当巨大。 此外，研究公司Asym 500 LLC的创始人Rocky Fishman给出的数字更是达到了惊 人的6.5万亿美元，因其对股指期权到期规模的预估比花旗等投行都要多。Fishman 表示，周五的期权到期日将是"有史以来最大规模之一"。 "三巫日"会如何影响市场？ Fishman表示，自五月初以来，美国股市的日常波动相对受限，这种情况 ...

Group 1 - The current interest rate environment, with rates above 5%, is creating both challenges and opportunities in the market, particularly affecting growth stock valuations in the US and liquidity in Hong Kong stocks [1][3] - Companies with strong cash flow, such as subscription-based software firms and industrial giants, are well-positioned to navigate the current economic climate, with Microsoft averaging over $60 billion in operating cash flow annually over the past three years [3] - In the Hong Kong market, investors should focus on "interest rate immune" stocks, such as Macau gaming stocks, which are benefiting from consumer recovery and have already absorbed pressure from dollar-denominated debt [3] Group 2 - Asset allocation strategies should involve a "dynamic balancing" approach, increasing exposure to high-dividend Hong Kong state-owned enterprises when US Treasury yields rise, and gradually shifting to US biotech stocks when interest rate expectations ease [3][5] - Currency fluctuations can be leveraged as a tool for investment, with Hong Kong dollar-denominated assets providing natural hedging advantages, such as Southeast Asian REITs listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3] - Investors are encouraged to view the interest rate cycle as a stress test for their portfolios, utilizing intelligent allocation systems to identify valuation discrepancies across markets, such as the historical dividend premium of Hong Kong telecom giants [5]

想对冲美股风险，多市场投资，对于短线情绪流和主升感兴趣，想精准踏准柿场节奏的可以关注"周期 雪爷"。一位职业女选手，擅长情绪和趋势周期。对大A短线和主升方面有一定深入研究。 老舅低吸笔记 炒股的朋友一定要关注，理工科博士背景的老舅，奉行"逻辑为王"，最擅长低位挖掘逻辑硬核的优 质个股。最关键的是，看他文章，有肉吃！！ 6月快到了，全球市场都在瑟瑟发抖。上周五，特朗普的新言论一出，美股欧股当场扑街，大家又都疯 狂抢黄金避险。这场景眼熟不？还记得此前的4月2日吗？那天全球股市被血洗，黄金直接窜天。现在 大伙都在猜：6月1日会不会再上演一次"黑色星期四"？ 不过，不要慌，高盛分析师Alec Phillips在最新报告中提醒，美国国 际贸易法院将在未来几周内就一项 初步禁令动议作出裁决，该禁令可能会废除特朗普在4月2日公布的关税。虽然法院批准初步禁令的可 能性不大，但这是市场普遍忽视的潜在利好风险。 不想踩坑，除了必须要看的美股研究社外， 这几个硬核账号也可以赶紧关注起来： 老徐聊海外 十年美股期权玩家，从财报套利到组合风控，只讲能落地的实战策略： 各类套利、波动率交易等策 略拆解，期权链深度分析，以及美股中线交易。 ...