随着美股期权市场的规模日益庞大，史上最大规模"三巫日"的头衔在过去几年已被屡次刷新。而本 周五，结束了周四"六月节"假期的美股投资者，也将纷纷为潜在规模可能高至6.5万亿的美股期权集 中到期"海啸"做好准备，这可能会令美股遭遇过往更大幅度的波动。 美股"三巫日"是指股指期货、股指期权和个股期权这三种合约同时到期。这一季度性事件每年 会遭遇四次，通常发生在三月、六月、九月和十二月的第三个星期五，并伴随着美国股市交易 量的放大和波动性的加剧。 由于计算任何一天到期的上市衍生品数量并没有一个业内统一的标准方法——这取决于在该数 字中包含了哪类资产类别和合约，因此华尔街各机构对于"三巫日"到期期权规模的统计数字往 往也各有差异。 不过， 从此次"三巫日"的情况看，一个共识是规模将相当巨大。 此外，研究公司Asym 500 LLC的创始人Rocky Fishman给出的数字更是达到了惊 人的6.5万亿美元，因其对股指期权到期规模的预估比花旗等投行都要多。Fishman 表示，周五的期权到期日将是"有史以来最大规模之一"。 "三巫日"会如何影响市场？ Fishman表示，自五月初以来，美国股市的日常波动相对受限，这种情况 ...

当美联储的加息节奏像钟摆般规律敲打市场时，聪明的水手已经开始调整风帆。眼下利率站上5%高 位，美元成为吸金漩涡，美股成长股估值压缩，港股流动性承压——但这片看似汹涌的海域，实则暗藏 黄金航路。理解加息周期的本质，就像看懂潮汐规律：资金成本上升冲刷掉市场泡沫，却也使优质资产 的礁石显露真容。 在美股战场，不妨关注"现金流战士"。那些能自己造血的企业，比如拥有订阅制护城河的软件公司、垄 断细分市场的工业巨头，正凭借稳定自由现金流穿越风暴。举个例子，微软近三年经营性现金流年均超 600亿美元，这比任何分析师预测都更有说服力。而港股市场则要寻找"利率免疫"标的，比如澳门博彩 股受益于消费复苏，其美元债压力已被提前消化，反而在加息末期显现弹性。 资产配置需要"动态平衡术"。当10年期美债收益率冲高时，可适度增配港股高股息率国企，这些"现金 奶牛"的6-8%股息率比银行理财更诱人；待加息预期缓和时，再逐步增加美股生物科技仓位，该板块市 销率已跌至十年均值下方30%。记住，别和美联储对着干，但要比市场早半步——就像冲浪者捕捉浪 头，要在力量将尽未尽时切入。 Doo Financial建议投资者，不妨把加息周期当作投资组合的 ...

想对冲美股风险，多市场投资，对于短线情绪流和主升感兴趣，想精准踏准柿场节奏的可以关注"周期 雪爷"。一位职业女选手，擅长情绪和趋势周期。对大A短线和主升方面有一定深入研究。 老舅低吸笔记 炒股的朋友一定要关注，理工科博士背景的老舅，奉行"逻辑为王"，最擅长低位挖掘逻辑硬核的优 质个股。最关键的是，看他文章，有肉吃！！ 6月快到了，全球市场都在瑟瑟发抖。上周五，特朗普的新言论一出，美股欧股当场扑街，大家又都疯 狂抢黄金避险。这场景眼熟不？还记得此前的4月2日吗？那天全球股市被血洗，黄金直接窜天。现在 大伙都在猜：6月1日会不会再上演一次"黑色星期四"？ 不过，不要慌，高盛分析师Alec Phillips在最新报告中提醒，美国国 际贸易法院将在未来几周内就一项 初步禁令动议作出裁决，该禁令可能会废除特朗普在4月2日公布的关税。虽然法院批准初步禁令的可 能性不大，但这是市场普遍忽视的潜在利好风险。 不想踩坑，除了必须要看的美股研究社外， 这几个硬核账号也可以赶紧关注起来： 老徐聊海外 十年美股期权玩家，从财报套利到组合风控，只讲能落地的实战策略： 各类套利、波动率交易等策 略拆解，期权链深度分析，以及美股中线交易。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB4.4 billion, an increase of 87% from RMB2.4 billion in Q4 2023, with full year revenue growing to RMB13.6 billion, up 36% year over year [16] - Brokerage commission and handling charge income was RMB2.1 billion, up 128% year over year and 35% quarter over quarter [17] - Interest income was RMB2 billion, up 52% year over year and 19% quarter over quarter [18] - Total gross profit was RMB3.7 billion, an increase of 89% from RMB1.9 billion in Q4 2023, with a gross margin of 82.5% [21] - Net income increased by 113% year over year and 42% quarter over quarter to RMB1.9 billion, with a net income margin of 42.2% [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total client assets were HKD343 billion, up 43% year over year and 7% quarter over quarter [10] - Total trading volume jumped by 202% year over year and 52% quarter over quarter to HKD2.89 trillion [11] - In the U.S., stock trading volume grew by 36% sequentially to a historic high of HKD2.08 trillion [12] - Hong Kong stock trading volume grew by 117% sequentially to HKD75 billion [13] - Total client assets in wealth management increased 93% year over year and 14% quarter over quarter to HKD111 billion [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Client acquisitions accelerated across all markets, adding 215,000 paying clients in Q4 alone, totaling over 2.4 million paying clients, a 41% year over year increase [5] - In Singapore, total line assets grew by 19% quarter over quarter, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of sequential growth [10] - The overseas markets recorded the highest quarterly net asset inflow, almost equivalent to the full year 2023 inflow [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to guide for 800,000 new paying clients in 2025, focusing on existing markets without new market entries [5][29] - The company aims to enhance its product offerings, including rolling out crypto trading and expanding wealth management services [37][55] - The management emphasized the importance of AI integration to improve operational efficiency and client-facing capabilities [42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the trading opportunities in both Hong Kong and U.S. markets remain robust, with high engagement from retail investors [34] - The company expects continued strong net asset inflow in 2025, driven by client engagement and market conditions [85] - The management highlighted the potential for further penetration in the crypto market as regulatory frameworks become clearer [53] Other Important Information - The company underwrote 40 Hong Kong IPOs in 2024, ranking first among all brokers for the third consecutive year [14] - The new digital IPO settlement platform introduced by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is expected to enhance retail participation and market liquidity [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on new paying clients for 2025 - Management clarified that the guidance of 800,000 new paying clients does not include new markets, focusing on existing markets with robust growth potential [28] Question: Client acquisition cost (CAC) increase - Management indicated that the target CAC for 2025 is HKD2,500 to HKD3,000, with increased spending on brand equity to enhance long-term user loyalty [29] Question: Current trading volume and market conditions - Management noted that despite setbacks in U.S. stocks, trading volumes remain robust due to increased volatility and client engagement [48] Question: Breakdown of AUM and market impact - Management reported that 24% of asset inflow came from non-Great China areas, indicating strong overseas market engagement [59] Question: Operating expenses and outlook - Management explained the increase in G&A expenses was due to year-end bonuses and one-off professional expenses, with headcount growth expected to be in the low to middle single digits [65] Question: Interest income breakdown - Management stated that approximately 40% to 45% of interest income was derived from idle cash deposits, with the remainder from margin financing and securities lending [81]