1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed generally higher with performance divergence, large-cap blue-chip stocks outperformed small and mid-cap stocks. The market is in a random walk state this week with less macro data and fewer disturbances from domestic and overseas news. With the approaching of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, market trading is relatively dull. The previously announced economic data shows that the economy in August was still under pressure, and the real estate had an obvious drag on fixed investment. The marginal weakening of the "trade-in" policy also put pressure on social retail sales. It is necessary to wait for further policy efforts. Although Powell's hawkish remarks put short-term pressure on the RMB, the dot plot shows that there will be two more interest rate cuts this year, and the subsequent depreciation pressure on the RMB is expected to ease, which will also provide space for domestic policy easing. The market is expected to remain volatile before the policy is implemented. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2512) was at 4562.2, up 39.6; IF sub-main contract (2510) was at 4585.0, up 37.8. IH main contract (2512) was at 2953.6, up 15.4; IH sub-main contract (2510) was at 2953.8, up 14.6. IC main contract (2512) was at 7166.6, up 30.8; IC sub-main contract (2510) was at 7293.2, up 32.8. IM main contract (2512) was at 7281.8, down 6.6; IM sub-main contract (2510) was at 7444.6, down 10.2. There were also changes in various spreads and differences between different quarters and the current month [2] 3.2 Futures Positions - IF's top 20 net positions were -28,681.00, down 261.0; IH's top 20 net positions were -17,213.00, up 845.0. IC's top 20 net positions were -25,724.00, down 719.0; IM's top 20 net positions were -40,023.00, down 1530.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Prices - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was at 4593.49, up 27.4; the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 was at 2952.7, up 13.2. The CSI 500 was at 7341.3, up 17.6; the CSI 1000 was at 7506.5, down 27.7. There were also corresponding changes in the basis of each main contract [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 23,917.71, up 446.16; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 24,311.05, up 143.17. Northbound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 2861.33, down 384.30. There were also changes in reverse repurchase, main funds, MLF, the proportion of rising stocks, Shibor, option prices and implied volatilities, and various ratios [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A-shares were at 4.40, down 3.40; the technical aspect was at 2.70, down 5.50. The capital aspect was at 6.00, down 1.40 [2] 3.6 Industry News - On September 22, the loan prime rate (LPR) was announced, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year and above LPR at 3.5%. At the press conference, the CSRC Chairman Wu Qing introduced that the "science" content of the capital market has been further improved, and the market value of the A-share technology sector currently accounts for more than 1/4. As of the end of August, various medium and long-term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of the A-share floating market value, a 32% increase compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan", and foreign investors held 3.4 trillion yuan of A-share market value [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Black Metal R & D Report [1][5][10][12][22][31][38][50][60] - Report date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [4] Group 2: Market Information Thread Steel - Futures prices: RB05 at 3259 yuan/ton (-21), RB10 at 3126 yuan/ton (-29), RB01 at 3208 yuan/ton (-29) [3] - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian at 3260 yuan/ton (-20), Nanjing Xicheng at 3380 yuan/ton (-20), Shandong Shiheng at 3320 yuan/ton (0), Tangshan Tanggang at 3210 yuan/ton (-10) [3] - Profits: 05 - contract thread steel disk profit at 18 yuan/ton (-23), 10 - contract at - 104 yuan/ton (-28), 01 - contract at - 25 yuan/ton (-30) [3] Hot - Rolled Coil - Futures prices: HC05 at 3403 yuan/ton (-17), HC10 at 3416 yuan/ton (-3), HC01 at 3403 yuan/ton (-10) [3] - Spot prices: Tianjin Hegang at 3400 yuan/ton (-10), Lecong Rigang at 3450 yuan/ton (10), Shanghai Angang at 3450 yuan/ton (0) [3] - Profits: 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit at 163 yuan/ton (-19), 10 - contract at 186 yuan/ton (-2), 01 - contract at 170 yuan/ton (-11) [3] Group 3: Market Judgment - **Related prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel at 3260 yuan (-20), Beijing Jingye at 3260 yuan (-10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3450 yuan (-), Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3400 yuan (-10) [7] - **Trading strategy**: The black sector declined overall in the afternoon. Ferroalloys led the decline. Spot trading was generally weak, and speculative demand was weak. Steel production is resuming, with thread steel slightly reducing production and hot - rolled coil increasing. Five major steel products are accumulating inventory, and the inventory accumulation speed of thread steel is accelerating. Steel exports remain resilient, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is still strong. Affected by high temperatures and typhoons, the demand for construction steel is declining rapidly. The fundamentals of steel are peaking, and demand is seasonally declining. The focus of influencing prices will shift from policy to fundamentals. Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and there is still pressure before the military parade [8] - **Specific trading strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile and weak; it is recommended to continue holding thread steel positive spreads; it is recommended to wait and see for options [9] - **Important information**: In July 2025, China's rebar production was 15.182 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; the cumulative production from January to July was 113.387 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In July, the production of medium - thick wide steel strips was 18.414 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%; the cumulative production from January to July was 132.435 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In July, the production of wire rods (coils) was 11.375 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; the cumulative production from January to July was 78.959 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. The production schedule data for September shows that the domestic sales schedule for air conditioners is 5.082 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%, and the export schedule is 4.785 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6% [9][11] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include thread steel and hot - rolled coil price trends, basis, spreads, disk profits, cash profits, cost differences, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [15][19][25][27][29][34][36][41][45][53][57][59][62]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]