【文/观察者网 柳白】 "在韩国最大的钢铁工业园区，走300米就能看到三家关闭的工厂……" 韩国保守派媒体《朝鲜日报》11月19日报道注意到，遭到中国低价钢铁和美国高关税双重挤压的韩国钢 铁行业，正陷入数十年来最严重危机。不仅中小钢企普遍停工甚至待售，就连一些龙头企业也相继关闭 或无限期停产。钢铁业衰退还引发连锁反应，上下游配套企业遭受重创，为培育未来产业而打造的国家 工业园区也因企业缩减预算而闲置，造成预期就业目标难以实现。 但实际上，韩国钢铁业风光不再的根源是多方面的，根本原因在于其国内建筑业持续低迷等导致内需不 足，以及产业自身国际竞争力相对减弱的现实。将困境简单归咎于中国产品的价格竞争和美国的高关税 政策，无疑是一种"甩锅"行为。 报道称，韩国是全球第六大钢铁生产国，人均钢铁消费量以923.5公斤位居世界第一，凸显了钢铁行业 如何支撑韩国以制造业为中心的出口型经济。然而，如今的浦项制铁正面临自1973年浦项钢铁公司首次 炼铁以来最严重的危机，钢铁企业正迅速缩减或停止运营。 浦项制铁去年连续永久关闭了浦项1号炼钢厂和1号棒材轧钢厂，而非暂时停工。韩国第二大钢铁企业现 代制铁也在6月无限期停工了位于浦项的 ...

英国政府在声明中强调其对钢铁行业的支持，包括为英国钢企争取进入美国市场的优惠待遇，并称将继 续探索更强有力的贸易措施，以防止"不公平行为"冲击本国钢铁生产。"我们正持续与欧盟进行接触， 讨论其最新宣布的措施。" 知情人士未透露英国可能采取的具体反制手段，但任何升级都将标志着英国在过去几年中罕见地走向贸 易对抗。此前，英国一直试图避免卷入由特朗普政府关税政策引发的全球性贸易摩擦。 英国政府一位官员表示，欧盟提高对英国钢铁的关税，违反了双方今年 5 月达成的"重置协议"精神。当 时斯塔默与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在伦敦联合声明，强调两方致力于"自由、可持续、公平、开放的 贸易"及供应链安全。 欧盟方面则回应称，将与所有自贸伙伴"本着诚意"沟通相关措施及其影响，并继续强调寻求解决全球钢 铁产能过剩问题的"集体方案"。 智通财经APP获悉，英国政府正在研究在首相斯塔默无法与欧盟达成缓和钢铁关税影响的协议时，采取 反制措施，以应对欧盟拟议的钢铁保护升级。据知情人士透露，英国国内金属行业警告称，欧盟的计划 可能引发英国钢铁业"历史上最严重的危机"。 欧盟上月提出，将现有外来钢铁的免关税配额削减近一半，并把超额部分的关税提高 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the black sector by Shan Jin Futures, covering steel products such as rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore [1][2][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core Views Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - The market focus has shifted to verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonally, demand should pick up and inventory decline in the peak consumption season, but concerns remain due to the real estate market's slow recovery [2] - Rebar production has increased, apparent demand has slightly risen, factory inventory has decreased, and social inventory has increased for seven consecutive weeks. Total production and inventory of the five major steel products have risen, with an increase in apparent demand [2] - Technically, rebar and hot-rolled coils have reached near the lower Bollinger Band on the daily K-line chart, with potential strong support, but the pressure from the 10-day moving average above is significant [2] - The operation suggestion is to maintain a wait-and-see approach, short-sell on rallies, and avoid chasing prices [2] Iron Ore - Steel mills' profitability is fair, but the profit margin has adjusted, possibly due to the sharp increase in coke prices. Iron ore production has slightly increased and may rise further after the military parade, but the upside is limited due to high production levels and weak terminal demand [5] - Global iron ore shipments are at a high level, and future arrivals are expected to increase. Port inventory shows signs of stabilizing, with no obvious accumulation yet, but an increase during the peak season is possible [5] - Technically, the 01 contract is oscillating around the middle Bollinger Band on the daily K-line chart, with a narrowing band opening, indicating a high probability of mid-term oscillation and limited short-term upside [5] - The operation suggestion is to short-sell on rallies, conduct short-term trades, and set stop-loss and take-profit levels promptly [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils Price Data - Rebar futures prices have increased, with the main contract closing at 3,129 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from the previous day and 0.26% from last week. Hot-rolled coil futures prices have also increased, with the main contract closing at 3,372 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day and down 0.09% from last week [3] - Rebar spot prices in Shanghai remained unchanged at 3,290 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from last week. Hot-rolled coil spot prices in Shanghai increased to 3,410 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous day and down 0.29% from last week [3] Production and Inventory - National rebar production increased by 5.91 million tons to 220.56 million tons, a 2.75% increase. Hot-rolled coil production decreased by 0.50 million tons to 324.74 million tons, a 0.15% decrease [3] - The five major steel products' social inventory increased by 29.17 million tons to 1,046.38 million tons, a 2.87% increase. Rebar social inventory increased by 21.26 million tons to 453.77 million tons, a 4.92% increase. Hot-rolled coil social inventory increased by 3.23 million tons to 285.78 million tons, a 1.14% increase [3] - The five major steel products' factory inventory decreased by 2.33 million tons to 421.5 million tons, a 0.55% decrease. Rebar factory inventory decreased by 4.91 million tons to 169.62 million tons, a 2.81% decrease. Hot-rolled coil factory inventory increased by 0.79 million tons to 79.68 million tons, a 1.00% increase [3] Demand - The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 4.78 million tons to 857.77 million tons, a 0.56% increase. Rebar apparent demand increased by 9.41 million tons to 204.21 million tons, a 4.83% increase. Hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 0.55 million tons to 320.72 million tons, a 0.17% decrease [3] Iron Ore Price Data - Iron ore spot prices have increased, with Macfie powder at Qingdao Port at 766 yuan/wet ton, up 1.32% from the previous day and last week. The DCE iron ore main contract settlement price is 790.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.93% from the previous day and 2.33% from last week [5] Supply and Demand - Australian iron ore shipments increased by 261.3 million tons to 1,719 million tons, a 17.93% increase. Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased by 188.2 million tons to 748.1 million tons, a 20.10% decrease [5] - Northern six-port arrivals decreased by 99.5 million tons to 1,153 million tons, a 7.94% decrease. The average daily port clearance volume decreased by 5.76 million tons to 341.04 million tons, a 1.66% decrease [5] - Port inventory increased by 25.93 million tons to 13,845.2 million tons, a 0.19% increase. Trade ore inventory increased by 19.80 million tons to 9,213.33 million tons, a 0.22% increase [5] Technical Analysis - The 01 contract is oscillating around the middle Bollinger Band on the daily K-line chart, with a narrowing band opening, indicating a high probability of mid-term oscillation and limited short-term upside [5] 4. Industry News - China plans to cut steel production from 2025 to 2026 to address overcapacity and meet carbon emission peak targets. In the first seven months of this year, China's crude steel production decreased by 3.1% year-on-year to 594.47 million tons [7] - As of the week ending August 28, rebar production increased, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased for the seventh consecutive week, with apparent demand increasing for the second consecutive week [7] - Since August 25, 2025, six blast furnaces of foundry pig iron enterprises in Shandong and Henan have been shut down for maintenance due to environmental protection and low downstream demand, affecting daily production by about 0.44 million tons. Two more blast furnaces are planned to shut down on August 30 and September 1, increasing the daily impact to 0.85 million tons [7] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 55 yuan/ton. The average profit per ton of quasi-primary coke in Shanxi is 75 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 128 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia is -17 yuan/ton, and in Hebei is 80 yuan/ton [7] - As of August 28, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.63% week-on-week to 62.566 million heavy boxes, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.31%. The inventory days decreased by 0.5 days to 26.7 days [8]

Group 1 - In 2024, China's crude steel production reached 1.005 billion tons, accounting for 53.38% of global output, marking five consecutive years as a billion-ton steel powerhouse [2] - Among the top 10 steel producers, six are Chinese companies, highlighting China's dominance in steel production despite efforts to curb excess capacity [2] - The most profitable four listed steel companies in China (Baowu, CITIC Special Steel, Nanjing Steel, and Huazhong Steel) combined net profits in 2024 were still lower than Japan's Nippon Steel, which indicates a disparity in profitability despite higher production [2][5] Group 2 - Japan's Nippon Steel faced overcapacity issues in the late 1990s and significant losses in 2018, but successfully turned around its fortunes by 2020, demonstrating effective management strategies [5][20] - Key strategies employed by Japanese steel companies included securing low-cost iron ore supplies, focusing on high-value steel products, and government support for industry upgrades [14][18] - In 2020, Japan's crude steel production was 83.19 million tons, with special steel accounting for approximately 20.96% of total production, compared to China's 12.31% for special steel in the same year [30] Group 3 - China's steel industry is heavily reliant on imported iron ore, with 1.237 billion tons imported in 2024 at an average price of $106.9 per ton, making it vulnerable to international price fluctuations [37] - The Chinese steel sector is undergoing supply-side reforms aimed at transitioning to higher-value production, with notable advancements in technology and product quality [38] - The establishment of projects like the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea aims to enhance China's self-sufficiency in high-grade iron ore, potentially increasing domestic supply by 3-5% [37][38]

Core Insights - Iron ore imports have surged by 8%, raising questions about the sustainability of rising prices for the fifth consecutive trading day [1] - Australia and China may collaborate to address the issue of excess steel production capacity, which could have implications for iron ore prices [1] Group 1 - The increase in iron ore imports indicates a strong demand in the market, despite rising prices [1] - The continuous rise in iron ore prices over five trading days suggests a bullish sentiment among investors [1] - Potential collaboration between Australia and China to tackle steel overcapacity could stabilize or influence future iron ore pricing dynamics [1]

Report Information - Report Type: Coking Coal and Coke Daily Review [1] - Date: June 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Conditions 1.1 Futures Market - On May 30, the main contract J2509 of coking coal futures hit a new low since January 2017 for the September contract, with the decline narrowing. The main contract JM2509 of coking coal futures saw an enlarged decline, hitting a new low since July 2016 for the September contract [5]. - J2509: The previous closing price was 1332 yuan/ton, opening at 1333 yuan/ton, with a high of 1334.5 yuan/ton, a low of 1295.5 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 1308 yuan/ton, down 2.13%. The trading volume was 31,257 lots, and the open interest was 56,074 lots, a decrease of 358 lots, with a capital outflow of 0.36 billion yuan [5]. - JM2509: The previous closing price was 759 yuan/ton, opening at 757 yuan/ton, with a high of 759.5 yuan/ton, a low of 726 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 726 yuan/ton, down 5.28%. The trading volume was 875,062 lots, and the open interest was 552,525 lots, an increase of 12,197 lots, with a capital outflow of 1.08 billion yuan [5]. 1.2 Spot Market - On May 30, the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1340 yuan/ton, with no change. The price in Tangshan was 1270 yuan/ton, also unchanged [8]. - The aggregated price of low - sulfur primary coking coal in Tangshan was 1275 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Lvliang, it was 1150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Linfen, it was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Handan, it was 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Heze, it was 1320 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Pingdingshan, it was 1460 yuan/ton, unchanged [8]. 2. Technical Analysis - On May 30, the daily KDJ indicators of the coking coal 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values turning up and the D value continuing to decline, showing a potential golden cross. The daily KDJ indicators of the coking coal 2509 contract continued to diverge downward. The daily MACD green bars of the coking coal 2509 contract continued to expand slightly, while those of the coking coal 2509 contract expanded further [8]. 3. Outlook 3.1 Coking Coal - In the past 5 weeks, the coking coal production of independent coking plants has slightly declined after hovering near the highest level since early August last year. The coking coal production of steel mills has also slightly declined compared to late April. In the past 6 weeks, the coking coal inventory at ports has significantly decreased, but the de - stocking speed of steel mills is slow, and the inventory of coking plants has started to accumulate, adding new downward pressure on coking coal prices. The profit per ton of coking coal has been in the red for 2 consecutive weeks, mainly due to two rounds of price cuts for coking coal in mid - and late May, hitting a new low in recent years [10]. 3.2 Coking Coal - From January to April, the year - on - year growth of imports turned negative, but the absolute value of imports remained high, and the overall loose supply pattern was difficult to reverse. The raw coal inventory of coal washing plants first increased and then decreased, and the clean coal inventory rose again to a relatively high level. In the past 6 weeks, the inventory of independent coking plants has significantly decreased, and the port inventory has also returned to the normal level before early August last year, but the steel mill inventory has increased steadily. With steel mills still having relatively sufficient inventory, if coking plants also adopt a de - stocking strategy, coking coal prices are likely to fall rather than rise [10]. 3.3 Overall - Although the weak market for coking coal and coke futures continues, and there may still be new lows in early June, positive factors in the fundamentals and news are accumulating. Attention should be paid to whether a turnaround in the market can occur around early June due to changes in tariff policies and the recovery of confidence in the steel market [10]. 4. Industry News - On May 29, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on improving the market - based allocation system for resource and environmental factors, aiming to improve the carbon market coverage and other aspects by 2027 [11]. - The third - round and fourth - batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections were launched, targeting 5 provinces and 3 central enterprises [11]. - Zhang Guoqing emphasized safety production at the launch ceremony of the 2025 National "Safety Production Month" [12]. - Sansteel Minguang's production, capacity replacement, fuel procurement, and sales situation were introduced, and it believed that relevant production - restriction policies were reasonable and necessary [12]. - Shanxi Coking Coal International Energy will focus on its main business in 2025 and optimize resource allocation [12]. - Shaanxi Energy's profit decline in the first quarter was due to lower power generation and coal sales prices [12]. - As of May 30, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 6.75 million tons, showing different changes compared to the previous week, month, and year [13]. - Yitai B - share completed the tender offer for ST Xinchao's controlling stake [13]. - Tongbao Energy will manage its coal inventory according to market conditions [13]. - From January to April 2025, China's shipbuilding industry maintained its leading position globally, and the industry's boom cycle is expected to continue [13]. - The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily suspended the ruling against Trump's tariff measures [14]. - The OECD report pointed out that planned capacity expansion may exacerbate global steel over - capacity [14]. - Clean energy accounted for an increasing proportion of US power generation in March and April [14]. - Turkey's coal imports in April 2025 increased year - on - year and month - on - month [14]. - Bayan Resources' coal sales volume in the first quarter of this year increased significantly, but the average selling price was lower than expected [14]. 5. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the aggregated price of primary coking coal, the production and capacity utilization of coking plants and steel mills, the daily average pig iron production, the inventory of coking coal and coke at ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the profit per ton of coking coal, the production and operating rate of coal washing plants, the raw coal and clean coal inventory of coal washing plants, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [16][17][22]

Core Insights - The OECD report highlights a worsening overcapacity in the global steel industry, predicting that by 2027, excess capacity will reach 721 million tons with a capacity utilization rate dropping to 73% [1][2] - The report indicates a significant increase in steel production capacity, with an expected growth of 6.7% (approximately 165 million tons) from 2025 to 2027, predominantly driven by Asian countries [1][2] - Global steel demand is projected to grow at a sluggish rate of 0.7% annually until 2030, with varying growth prospects across regions [1][2] Industry Challenges - The steel industry is currently facing three major challenges: overcapacity, supply surplus, and price pressure, leading to a significant reduction in profit margins [2] - The report estimates that between 2013 and 2021, member countries of the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity (GFSEC) lost approximately 113,000 jobs due to overcapacity [2] - The anticipated reliance on high-emission production processes for 40% of new capacity from 2025 to 2027 poses a threat to decarbonization efforts [2] Shifts in Investment Focus - The investment focus in the steel industry is shifting from OECD economies to emerging markets, with about 16% of new capacity post-2025 driven by cross-border investments, primarily in Asia [1][2] - The share of OECD economies in global steel production has halved over the past two decades, projected to drop to 22% by 2024 [1][2]