地球知识局 文字 | 绯红之猪 制图 | 果 校对 | 朝乾 编辑 | e 2024年，中国粗钢产量10.05亿吨，在全球占比53.38%，连续5年成为十亿钢铁大国。产量榜TOP10中， 中国钢企独占6席。在产量这块，中国钢铁恐怖如斯。 这还是全国到处在抓过剩产能、落后产能的大环境下实现的。不过中国钢企也同时存在大而不够强、产 量多而不赚钱的阿喀琉斯之踵。 在净利润这块，中国最挣钱的四家上市钢企（宝钢、中信特钢、南钢、华菱钢铁），24年的净利润加在 一起，却还没有日本排第一的日本制铁高。 ▼ 上世纪末，日本制铁也曾遇到过产能过剩的情况，2018年甚至出现严重亏损。但短短几年，日本制铁就 成功扭亏为盈、大赚特赚，还出资149亿美元收购了美国钢铁（USS）。 日本制铁24年粗钢产量3964万吨，而中国宝武集团的产能则高达1.3亿吨，但日本制铁的净利润竟然如 此之高，究竟是咋搞的呢？ 在战后的1946年，彼时的日本不说是回到石器时代，那也是彻底去工业化和城市化了。当年，日本钢产 量只有56.4万吨，而美国同期则高达6600万吨。 不过，日本钢铁产业很快就吃到了朝鲜战争爆发、国内工业化城镇化推进，以及全球化的红利，在 ...

铁矿石进口激增8%！矿价为何还能连续第5个交易日上涨？中澳或联手应对钢铁产能过剩，这对矿价意 味着什么？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Coking Coal and Coke Daily Review [1] - Date: June 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Conditions 1.1 Futures Market - On May 30, the main contract J2509 of coking coal futures hit a new low since January 2017 for the September contract, with the decline narrowing. The main contract JM2509 of coking coal futures saw an enlarged decline, hitting a new low since July 2016 for the September contract [5]. - J2509: The previous closing price was 1332 yuan/ton, opening at 1333 yuan/ton, with a high of 1334.5 yuan/ton, a low of 1295.5 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 1308 yuan/ton, down 2.13%. The trading volume was 31,257 lots, and the open interest was 56,074 lots, a decrease of 358 lots, with a capital outflow of 0.36 billion yuan [5]. - JM2509: The previous closing price was 759 yuan/ton, opening at 757 yuan/ton, with a high of 759.5 yuan/ton, a low of 726 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 726 yuan/ton, down 5.28%. The trading volume was 875,062 lots, and the open interest was 552,525 lots, an increase of 12,197 lots, with a capital outflow of 1.08 billion yuan [5]. 1.2 Spot Market - On May 30, the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1340 yuan/ton, with no change. The price in Tangshan was 1270 yuan/ton, also unchanged [8]. - The aggregated price of low - sulfur primary coking coal in Tangshan was 1275 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Lvliang, it was 1150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Linfen, it was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Handan, it was 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Heze, it was 1320 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Pingdingshan, it was 1460 yuan/ton, unchanged [8]. 2. Technical Analysis - On May 30, the daily KDJ indicators of the coking coal 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values turning up and the D value continuing to decline, showing a potential golden cross. The daily KDJ indicators of the coking coal 2509 contract continued to diverge downward. The daily MACD green bars of the coking coal 2509 contract continued to expand slightly, while those of the coking coal 2509 contract expanded further [8]. 3. Outlook 3.1 Coking Coal - In the past 5 weeks, the coking coal production of independent coking plants has slightly declined after hovering near the highest level since early August last year. The coking coal production of steel mills has also slightly declined compared to late April. In the past 6 weeks, the coking coal inventory at ports has significantly decreased, but the de - stocking speed of steel mills is slow, and the inventory of coking plants has started to accumulate, adding new downward pressure on coking coal prices. The profit per ton of coking coal has been in the red for 2 consecutive weeks, mainly due to two rounds of price cuts for coking coal in mid - and late May, hitting a new low in recent years [10]. 3.2 Coking Coal - From January to April, the year - on - year growth of imports turned negative, but the absolute value of imports remained high, and the overall loose supply pattern was difficult to reverse. The raw coal inventory of coal washing plants first increased and then decreased, and the clean coal inventory rose again to a relatively high level. In the past 6 weeks, the inventory of independent coking plants has significantly decreased, and the port inventory has also returned to the normal level before early August last year, but the steel mill inventory has increased steadily. With steel mills still having relatively sufficient inventory, if coking plants also adopt a de - stocking strategy, coking coal prices are likely to fall rather than rise [10]. 3.3 Overall - Although the weak market for coking coal and coke futures continues, and there may still be new lows in early June, positive factors in the fundamentals and news are accumulating. Attention should be paid to whether a turnaround in the market can occur around early June due to changes in tariff policies and the recovery of confidence in the steel market [10]. 4. Industry News - On May 29, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on improving the market - based allocation system for resource and environmental factors, aiming to improve the carbon market coverage and other aspects by 2027 [11]. - The third - round and fourth - batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections were launched, targeting 5 provinces and 3 central enterprises [11]. - Zhang Guoqing emphasized safety production at the launch ceremony of the 2025 National "Safety Production Month" [12]. - Sansteel Minguang's production, capacity replacement, fuel procurement, and sales situation were introduced, and it believed that relevant production - restriction policies were reasonable and necessary [12]. - Shanxi Coking Coal International Energy will focus on its main business in 2025 and optimize resource allocation [12]. - Shaanxi Energy's profit decline in the first quarter was due to lower power generation and coal sales prices [12]. - As of May 30, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 6.75 million tons, showing different changes compared to the previous week, month, and year [13]. - Yitai B - share completed the tender offer for ST Xinchao's controlling stake [13]. - Tongbao Energy will manage its coal inventory according to market conditions [13]. - From January to April 2025, China's shipbuilding industry maintained its leading position globally, and the industry's boom cycle is expected to continue [13]. - The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily suspended the ruling against Trump's tariff measures [14]. - The OECD report pointed out that planned capacity expansion may exacerbate global steel over - capacity [14]. - Clean energy accounted for an increasing proportion of US power generation in March and April [14]. - Turkey's coal imports in April 2025 increased year - on - year and month - on - month [14]. - Bayan Resources' coal sales volume in the first quarter of this year increased significantly, but the average selling price was lower than expected [14]. 5. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the aggregated price of primary coking coal, the production and capacity utilization of coking plants and steel mills, the daily average pig iron production, the inventory of coking coal and coke at ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the profit per ton of coking coal, the production and operating rate of coal washing plants, the raw coal and clean coal inventory of coal washing plants, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [16][17][22]

Core Insights - The OECD report highlights a worsening overcapacity in the global steel industry, predicting that by 2027, excess capacity will reach 721 million tons with a capacity utilization rate dropping to 73% [1][2] - The report indicates a significant increase in steel production capacity, with an expected growth of 6.7% (approximately 165 million tons) from 2025 to 2027, predominantly driven by Asian countries [1][2] - Global steel demand is projected to grow at a sluggish rate of 0.7% annually until 2030, with varying growth prospects across regions [1][2] Industry Challenges - The steel industry is currently facing three major challenges: overcapacity, supply surplus, and price pressure, leading to a significant reduction in profit margins [2] - The report estimates that between 2013 and 2021, member countries of the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity (GFSEC) lost approximately 113,000 jobs due to overcapacity [2] - The anticipated reliance on high-emission production processes for 40% of new capacity from 2025 to 2027 poses a threat to decarbonization efforts [2] Shifts in Investment Focus - The investment focus in the steel industry is shifting from OECD economies to emerging markets, with about 16% of new capacity post-2025 driven by cross-border investments, primarily in Asia [1][2] - The share of OECD economies in global steel production has halved over the past two decades, projected to drop to 22% by 2024 [1][2]