1.1 核心矛盾 当前铅市正处于典型的"现实缺货，预期过剩"的背离阶段。强现实（支撑）： SMM数据显示，国内 铅锭社会库存已降至15个月低位，叠加冶炼厂库存同处低位，构成了铅价最坚实的防线。这一"双低"状态 直接对冲了年末消费转淡的利空。供应端呈现结构性分化：原生铅检修恢复带来增量，但再生铅企业因废电 瓶原料紧张及环保因素被迫减产，供应端并未出现所谓的"崩塌式"宽松。弱预期（压制）： 虽然短期紧 缺，但远期过剩阴云不散。市场对26年铅平衡均预期供应过剩，且海外供应增速大于需求增速。结论： 极低 的库存和再生铅的成本亏损底限制了下方空间，但缺乏新增消费驱动且远期过剩确立，价格难以形成趋势性 上涨，维持高位区间震荡格局。 铅定价逻辑 source： SMM,南华研究 元/吨 元/金属吨 国产铅精矿价格 再生精铅-平均价 SMM 1#铅锭-平均价 铅精矿加工费（国产）(右轴) 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 10000 12500 15000 17500 20000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 LME铅0:3收盘价和沪铅主力合约收盘价 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the lead market is experiencing a stable yet weak demand-supply balance, with no significant positive factors to boost lead prices in the near term [1] - On August 27, 2025, LME lead spot premium was reported at -$38.74 per ton, while SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased to 16,775 RMB per ton, a drop of 25 RMB per ton from the previous change [1] - The Shanghai, Guangdong, Henan, and Tianjin regions showed corresponding changes in lead spot prices and premiums, while the price difference between lead scrap and refined lead remained unchanged [1] Group 2 - The futures market saw the main Shanghai lead contract open at 16,925 RMB per ton and close at 16,890 RMB per ton, reflecting a decrease of 40 RMB per ton, with a total trading volume of 49,426 lots and an open interest of 49,915 lots [1] - The night session opened at 16,885 RMB per ton and closed at 16,875 RMB per ton, down 15 RMB per ton from the afternoon close [1] - As of August 27, 2025, SMM lead ingot inventory totaled 68,000 tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons compared to the same week last year, while LME lead inventory was reported at 267,475 tons, down by 1,500 tons [1] Group 3 - The strategy remains neutral, with the lead market expected to oscillate between 16,300 and 17,050 RMB per ton due to a lack of significant bullish factors in the fundamentals, despite macroeconomic factors favoring the non-ferrous sector [1] - The options strategy suggested is to sell wide spreads, with risk factors including a significant increase in domestic supply, lower-than-expected consumption, and tightening overseas liquidity [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. The high - level operation of domestic primary lead smelters has increased the demand for raw materials, but the import of lead concentrates has decreased, leading to a decline in processing fees. The high price of lead - containing waste materials has caused secondary lead smelters to remain in a loss state, and the supply side may tighten. Although the traditional peak season for lead - acid batteries is approaching, it is still in the off - season currently, and the battery enterprises' procurement and production are still cautious. Therefore, lead prices are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Transaction Logic and Strategy - **Industrial Supply and Demand**: Domestic primary lead smelters' high - level operation has increased the demand for lead concentrates, with domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees decreasing. The recycling of lead - containing waste materials is difficult, and waste prices have risen slightly. The operating rates of primary and secondary lead smelters have declined. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has increased slightly. Lead inventories in some regions have changed. Due to the tight supply of raw materials and high waste prices, the supply side may tighten. Although the peak season for lead - acid batteries is approaching, it is still in the off - season currently, and the operating rate has not increased significantly. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, lead prices may maintain range - bound fluctuations [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the short - term, lead prices will fluctuate within a range. One can buy a small number of far - month long positions at low prices. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Chapter 2: Raw Material End - **Primary Raw Material Supply**: The report mentions global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, and import profits and losses [16]. - **Secondary Raw Material Supply**: It includes the price of lead - containing waste materials and the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters [24]. Chapter 3: Smelting End - **Global Refined Lead**: Covers the balance, production, and demand of global refined lead [30][32][34]. - **Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export**: Involves import and export profits and losses, import and export volumes, and net export volumes [36]. - **Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profit**: Includes lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid revenue, and silver revenue [37]. - **Primary Lead Supply**: Comprises the operating rate and production of primary lead smelting enterprises, and the production of major electrolytic lead delivery brands [39][40]. - **Secondary Lead Enterprise Cost and Profit**: Mentions the comprehensive cost and profit of scale and small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises [41][45]. - **Secondary Lead Supply**: Covers the operating rate and production of secondary lead smelting enterprises, and the production of secondary crude lead [49][50]. - **Domestic Lead Ingot Supply**: Consists of the total supply of domestic lead ingots, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and net exports of refined lead [51][52]. Chapter 4: Demand End - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: It includes the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, dealer and enterprise finished - product inventories, and import and export volumes [57][58]. - **Lead Alloys and Their Plates**: Involves lead alloy prices, import and export of lead alloys, lead plates, and other lead plates [59][60]. - **Automobiles**: Covers Chinese automobile production, exports, and the production structure of traditional fuel vehicles and new - energy vehicles [61][62]. - **Motorcycles, Electricity, and Communications**: Includes motorcycle production, power engineering, grid engineering, communication construction volume, and power supply engineering [63][64].