—高能环境(603588)公司深度报告 进军矿业开采&赴港上市，资源化龙头扬帆起航 证券研究报告 公司研究 2026 年 2 月 4 日 [Table_CoverAuthor] 郭雪 环保公用联席首席分析师 吴柏莹 环保行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮箱：guoxue@cindasc.com 邮箱：wuboying@cindasc.com [公司深度报告 Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 高能环境(603588) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [高能Table_T 环境：itle]进军矿业开采&赴港上市，资源化龙头扬帆起 航 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 2 月 4 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [Table_Summary ummary] ] ➢ 行情回顾：截至 5月 9日收盘，水治理板块上涨 3.75%，水务板块上 涨 1.79%；大气 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent stock suspensions for companies like Fenglong Co. and Jiamei Packaging indicate significant price deviations from their fundamentals, raising concerns about potential rapid declines in stock prices due to market speculation and irrational trading behavior [1][2][4]. Group 1: Fenglong Co. - Fenglong Co. announced a stock suspension for investigation starting January 26, citing that its stock price has significantly deviated from its fundamental situation, with a static P/E ratio of 4735.09 and a P/B ratio of 22.89, both substantially higher than the industry averages of 44.90 and 4.2 respectively [2]. - The company experienced an 18-day consecutive price increase from December 17, 2025, to January 23, 2026, with a total gain of 456%, raising its market capitalization from 3.9 billion to 21.7 billion [2]. - The company confirmed that its main business activities remain unchanged, focusing on the research, production, and sales of garden machinery parts, automotive parts, and hydraulic components [2]. Group 2: Jiamei Packaging - Jiamei Packaging's stock also faced suspension due to a price increase of 408.11% from December 17, 2025, to January 23, 2026, indicating a significant deviation from its fundamentals [4]. - The company reported a static P/E ratio of 132.58 and a P/B ratio of 9.61, both of which are considerably higher than the industry averages of 44.61 and 3.24 respectively [4]. - Jiamei Packaging anticipates a noticeable decline in its operating performance for the fiscal year 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating potential further risks [6]. Group 3: Hunan Baiyin and Weichai Heavy Machinery - Hunan Baiyin reported a cumulative price increase of 104.86% over ten trading days, indicating severe abnormal trading behavior and a significant deviation from market trends [7]. - The company expressed uncertainty regarding the future market prices of its silver products, which are influenced by recent increases in international silver prices [7]. - Weichai Heavy Machinery clarified that rumors about entering the North American gas engine market are unfounded, stating that its operations remain normal without any significant changes [8].

Core Insights - The State Council has issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Governance Action Plan," setting key targets for solid waste management by 2030, including a comprehensive utilization of 4.5 billion tons of major solid waste and 510 million tons of recycled resources annually, marking a significant policy shift for the industry [1] - The solid waste resource utilization industry is experiencing accelerated policy benefits, with a focus on enhancing the supply capacity of secondary key resources and establishing a stable domestic supply system for secondary resources [3] Company Insights - High Energy Environment (603588.SH) is positioned as a leader in the solid waste and hazardous waste resource utilization sector, leveraging its full-chain layout and technological advantages to implement the policies effectively [1] - The company has established a comprehensive metal resource recovery chain, significantly improving resource recovery efficiency and profitability, with independent lines for copper, lead, and nickel industrial waste [1] - High Energy Environment's subsidiaries have substantial production capacities, including 100,000 tons of cathode copper and 5,000 tons of copper annually, and it has become a major player in the recovery of platinum group metals [2] - The company has invested in 11 waste incineration power plants, generating 1.3 billion kWh of electricity annually, contributing to urban energy structure transformation [2] - High Energy Environment is expanding internationally, having been selected as a supplier for environmentally friendly waste-to-energy projects in Indonesia and winning a waste incineration project in Thailand [2] Industry Trends - The solid waste resource utilization industry is transitioning from mere environmental governance to becoming a crucial support for resource security in China, with a focus on both domestic resource recovery and the cautious import of high-quality recycled resources [3] - High Energy Environment is evolving from an "environmental service provider" to a "resource value creator," aligning its development path with the trends in the solid waste resource utilization industry [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rebound momentum of lead is insufficient, and it may continue to fluctuate. The short - term supply pressure of lead is relieved, and the low domestic inventory continuing to decline is beneficial to lead prices. However, due to the year - end closing of downstream enterprises, weak demand, and the pressure of imported lead inflow, there is a lack of continuous upward momentum in the domestic market. But with the increase in costs, there is strong support at the bottom, so it may move in a fluctuating manner. Later, attention should be paid to the production dynamics of recycled lead and downstream demand [1][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - In 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrate in physical quantity, a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The import volume was at the average level in recent years. Due to the high demand in the domestic lead concentrate market in winter, the tight situation at the domestic mine end intensified, and the processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates further declined at low levels [2] - In December, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 400 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, a monthly decrease of 20 US dollars. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 150 - - 120 US dollars/dry ton, also with no change week - on - week [2] Supply - In November, the national electrolytic lead output increased slightly, a month - on - month increase of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.61 percentage points; the output of recycled refined lead increased by 8.5% month - on - month and 10.13% year - on - year [3] - Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 67.35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.82%. The operating rates in Henan and Hunan remained stable. Some smelters in Hunan mentioned that environmental inspections affected the start - up of crude lead, but the electrolytic volume last week could maintain stable production. It is expected that the electrolytic lead output may decline slightly this week. A medium - large - scale smelter in Yunnan continued to increase production after the end of maintenance, and a small - scale smelter resumed production and slightly increased production. Other smelters maintained normal operation. A smelter in East China that had stopped production for maintenance has not resumed yet and is expected to resume at the end of December [3] - The weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 41.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%. Due to severe air pollution in many places in East and North China last week, environmental management was implemented. Anhui smelting enterprises significantly reduced production, and the regional operating rate decreased by 11.88% month - on - month; the operating rates in Henan and Jiangsu remained the same as last week. A recycled lead smelter in Inner Mongolia temporarily stopped production due to equipment part replacement and resumed normal production last week, and the regional operating rate rebounded, but local smelters said that the pressure on production due to raw material supply shortages still existed [3] - This week, the price of waste batteries continued to rise, the profit of recycled lead enterprises narrowed, and combined with the large environmental protection disturbances of recycled lead, the supply pressure of recycled lead was relieved. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London price ratio improved, the import window for refined lead remained open, and the profit increased [3] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 74.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%. Since December, the new national standard for electric bicycles has been officially implemented in the terminal market, but the actual consumption has not improved significantly due to the increase in the weight of the whole vehicle. Instead, due to consumers being in the adaptation period, the sales volume of the whole vehicle declined, dragging down battery consumption. Some lead - acid battery enterprises have slightly reduced production or planned to reduce production, dragging down the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises this week [4] - The automotive battery market has entered the traditional consumption peak season. Except for some export - oriented enterprises with poor orders due to factors such as tariffs, the operating rates of other medium - and large - scale enterprises are relatively stable. Near the end of the year, traders and battery enterprises are closing their accounts at the end of the year, and the inventory preparation of battery enterprises for the New Year's Day holiday is average. The spot trading is weak, and most downstream enterprises have stopped purchasing, resulting in low market transactions [4] Spot - As of the week of December 19, the domestic lead spot basis premium increased, and the lead spot basis was at a premium of 130 yuan at the end of last week. The LME lead spot continued to be in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 45.23 US dollars at the end of last week [4] Inventory - As of the week of December 18, the LME lead weekly inventory increased by 23,875 tons to 258,600 tons, and the LME inventory continued to rise from a high level; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 4,352 tons to 27,900 tons. As of December 22, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five places decreased to 19,100 tons, and the inventory continued to decline, reaching an absolute low level in the past four years [4]

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Weak Supply and Demand, Lead Price in Range-bound Fluctuation [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic lead market shows weak supply and demand. The low inventory and reduced production of recycled lead support the Shanghai lead price, while the weakening consumption restricts the upward space of the lead price. It is expected that the lead price will maintain range-bound fluctuations [4]. - Trading strategies suggest a range-bound approach for single-sided trading, and temporary observation for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply Side**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee this week reached 300 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM weekly processing fee for imported lead concentrate reached -135 US dollars/dry ton. Near the end of the year, the lead concentrate market remained inactive. For imported ores, some bids were as low as -200 US dollars/dry ton, with only a small amount of rigid-demand transactions. The processing fees for domestic ores were mostly for pre-sales in 2026, and remained stable in December [4]. - **Smelting Side**: The weekly operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters was 67.35%, a 1.82% increase from last week. The operating rates in Henan and Hunan remained stable. Although some smelters in Hunan were affected by environmental inspections, the electrolytic lead production remained stable this week, and is expected to decline slightly next week. A medium - large - scale smelter in Yunnan increased production after maintenance, and a small - scale smelter also slightly increased production. The SMM weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 41.61%, a 3.75% decrease from last week. Due to air pollution control in East and North China, smelting enterprises in Anhui significantly reduced production. If the control is lifted this weekend, normal production will resume [4]. - **Consumption Side**: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five - province lead - acid battery enterprises was 74.23%, a 0.41% decrease from last week. Since December, the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles has not significantly improved actual consumption. Instead, due to consumers being in the adaptation period, the decline in vehicle sales has dragged down battery consumption, leading some enterprises to reduce or plan to reduce production. The automotive battery market has entered the traditional consumption peak season, and the operating rates of most medium - and large - scale enterprises are relatively stable [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of December 18, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 20,500 tons, basically unchanged from December 11 and a decrease of 1,400 tons from December 15 [4]. 1.2 - 1.5 - These sections cover information on futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the text [5][8][11][15] Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 - 2.3 - These sections involve raw material supply, including global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, imports of silver concentrates, and the supply of recycled lead raw materials such as lead - containing waste and waste batteries. However, specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the text [20][24][32] Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 - 3.7 - These sections cover aspects such as the global refined lead balance, domestic refined lead imports and exports, primary lead smelting enterprise profits, primary and recycled lead supply, and domestic lead ingot supply. However, specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the text [39][46][47] Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 - 4.4 - These sections analyze the demand for lead, including lead - acid batteries, lead alloys and their plates, the automotive industry, and industries such as motorcycles, electricity, and communication. However, specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the text [71][74][79][82]

Core Viewpoint - Recent lead prices have shown a slight recovery, influenced by inventory levels, cost factors, and macroeconomic conditions [1] Inventory Factors - As of December 2, the average spot price for lead was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.29%) and a year-on-year decrease of 125 yuan/ton (0.73%) [1] - Downstream demand has led to a reduction in domestic warehouse receipts, with current lead ingot warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange being less than 20,000 tons, which has provided some support for lead prices [1] Cost Factors - The price of recycled batteries had previously faced downward pressure, making it difficult for recyclers to purchase at low prices, but there has been a slight recovery in battery prices, which has supported the bottom line for lead prices [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have increased, leading to a weaker US dollar, which has generally supported the performance of non-ferrous metals [1] - However, there are short-term expectations of weakening demand, which may limit the upward potential for lead prices [1]

Economic Development - The GDP of Geermu City is projected to increase from 36.714 billion yuan in 2021 to 45.519 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a steady upward trend in economic development [4] - The city aims to establish a high-quality development benchmark in the western region by focusing on innovation, structural optimization, and urban-rural integration [4] Industrial Growth - Geermu is enhancing its modern industrial system by focusing on the "magnesium-lithium-potassium salt" industry, with a target of achieving an industrial output value exceeding 34 billion yuan by 2024 [5][6] - The city has established significant production capacities, including 8 million tons of potassium fertilizer, 106,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and 100,000 tons of metallic magnesium [6] Renewable Energy - Geermu has a total installed power capacity of 12.1131 million kilowatts, with renewable energy accounting for 91% of this capacity, solidifying its position in clean energy generation [7] - The city is developing the world's largest liquid air energy storage project, which will have a power output of 60,000 kilowatts and an annual transmission capacity of approximately 180 million kilowatt-hours [8] Tourism and Culture - The city received 17.4669 million tourists and generated a total tourism revenue of 10.072 billion yuan, with a significant increase in visitor numbers and revenue in 2025 [9] - Geermu has developed 56 key cultural tourism projects with a total investment of 1.825 billion yuan, enhancing its tourism infrastructure [9] Agricultural Development - Geermu has successfully developed 103,000 acres of goji berry cultivation, generating an annual output value of 799 million yuan, transforming previously barren land into a recognized quality production area [11][12] - The goji berry industry has created over a thousand direct jobs and indirectly benefited more than ten thousand people, contributing to rural revitalization [12] Innovation and Technology - The city has established 11 national and provincial R&D platforms and has invested 2.789 billion yuan in R&D, accounting for 6.13% of its GDP [13] - Geermu has implemented over 260 policies to support enterprises, significantly improving its business environment and facilitating digital reforms [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint The lead market remains weak. Although there is a slight de - stocking in domestic inventory in the short term, if the supply of secondary lead continues to increase steadily while the boost from the consumption peak season is limited, social inventory may end the de - stocking trend and start to accumulate again, and the weak decline of lead prices is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to the production dynamics of secondary lead and changes in domestic inventory in the later stage [6]. Summary by Related Content Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In October 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate was 98,342 tons in physical quantity, a month - on - month decrease of 34.69%. The domestic lead concentrate market demand soared in winter, intensifying the tight supply situation. The domestic monthly processing fee in November was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 50 yuan; the import monthly processing fee was - 150 - - 100 US dollars/dry ton, a monthly decrease of 10 US dollars. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the import weekly processing fee was - 150 - - 120 US dollars/dry ton, also unchanged week - on - week [2]. - **Supply**: In October, the national electrolytic lead production decreased slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 2.66%; the secondary lead production increased significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 9.24% and a year - on - year increase of 11.86%. The average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces last week was 67.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. An eastern region smelter will enter regular maintenance this week, with a relatively limited impact on the electrolytic lead production line. The pressure on the raw material side is prominent, and the operating rate of primary lead will not change much in the later stage. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces was 50.52%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28%. SMM expects the operating rate of secondary lead to continue to increase this week. Recently, the domestic - foreign price ratio has risen, and lead imports have a small profit [3]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises remained stable last week. The terminal consumption of the lead - acid battery market has not changed significantly recently. The electric bicycle battery market will enter the traditional off - season, and the demand for automobile batteries has recovered but with limited boost. High battery inventory means that battery enterprises have insufficient motivation to increase production significantly in the short term. Whether the seasonal recovery of automobile battery consumption in winter can drive overall inventory reduction remains to be observed. Some enterprises have actively reduced production in November, and major enterprises will maintain the production - based - on - sales model before new orders recover. The spot market atmosphere has declined, lead prices have continued to be weak, and downstream buyers are mostly waiting and watching except for some with rigid demand, resulting in a decline in spot transactions [4][5]. - **Spot**: As of the week of November 21, the domestic lead spot basis fluctuated. The lead spot basis was at a premium of 65 yuan at the end of last week. The LME lead spot remained at a discount, with a discount of - 22.41 US dollars at the end of last week [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of November 21, the LME lead weekly inventory increased by 40,375 tons to 222,900 tons, and the LME inventory has rebounded for two consecutive weeks at a high level; the SHFE lead weekly inventory decreased by 3,869 tons to 38,900 tons. As of November 17, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 35,300 tons, with a slight decline but still at an absolute low level in the past four years [5]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas lead supply and demand are relatively loose, with high LME lead inventory and a discounted spot price. The import of lead concentrate decreased significantly in October, and the demand for winter - stored lead concentrate in China is high, intensifying the expectation of tight lead concentrate supply. The production of primary lead is restricted by raw materials, and the operating rate will not change much. The smelting profit of secondary lead enterprises has improved, and the supply of raw materials has improved, but there is still uncertainty in environmental protection disturbances in winter. The domestic - foreign price ratio of lead ingots has risen, and domestic imports have a small profit. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weakening, and the terminal consumption of automobile batteries is not strong. Lead prices are weak, and downstream buyers are mostly waiting and watching. In the short term, lead supply recovery is less than expected, and domestic inventory is slightly decreasing. However, if the supply of secondary lead continues to increase steadily while the consumption peak season has limited boost, social inventory may start to accumulate again, and the weak decline of lead prices is expected to continue [6].

Core Viewpoint - Recent announcements of share reduction plans by major shareholders of Hunan Silver indicate a strategic move following a significant increase in the company's stock price, which has risen over 100% this year [1][6] Shareholder Reduction Plans - China Great Wall Asset Management Co., Ltd. (Great Wall Asset) plans to reduce its holdings by up to 55 million shares, accounting for 1.95% of Hunan Silver's total share capital, from December 11, 2025, to March 10, 2026 [1][2] - The second largest shareholder, Chenzhou State-owned Capital Holding Group Co., Ltd. (Chenzhou Guokong), announced a plan to reduce its holdings by up to 56.46 million shares, representing 2% of the total share capital, from November 10, 2025, to February 9, 2026 [2][3] Shareholding Background - Both Great Wall Asset and Chenzhou Guokong acquired their shares through Hunan Silver's 2020 restructuring plan, with Chenzhou Guokong holding 210 million shares and Great Wall Asset holding 159 million shares [3][4] - The investment amounts for the restructuring were approximately 266.7 million yuan for Chenzhou Guokong and 146.05 million yuan for Great Wall Asset [4] Financial Performance - As of November 19, 2025, Hunan Silver's closing price was 6.34 yuan, with a market capitalization exceeding 17 billion yuan [5] - Chenzhou Guokong's shares are valued at approximately 1.33 billion yuan, about five times its investment, while Great Wall Asset's shares are valued at around 729 million yuan, also about five times its investment [5] - If both shareholders proceed with their planned reductions at the current price, they would realize cash amounts of approximately 358 million yuan and 348.7 million yuan, respectively [5] Business Overview - Hunan Silver's main business includes the smelting and sales of non-ferrous and precious metals such as silver, electrolytic lead, gold, and copper products [6] - The company has seen rapid growth in performance this year, with a revenue of 8.594 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59.56%, and a net profit of 159 million yuan, up 28.44% [6] - The company adjusted its share repurchase price limit from 5 yuan to 8 yuan per share due to the rising stock price [6]

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Silver's stock has shown strong performance this year, with a maximum increase of over 100%, prompting major shareholders to announce share reduction plans [2][6]. Group 1: Shareholder Reduction Plans - China Great Wall Asset Management Co., Ltd. (Great Wall Asset Management), the fourth largest shareholder, plans to reduce its holdings by up to 55 million shares, accounting for 1.95% of Hunan Silver's total share capital, between December 11, 2025, and March 10, 2026 [2][3]. - The second largest shareholder, Chenzhou State-owned Capital Holding Group Co., Ltd. (Chenzhou State Control), announced a plan to reduce its holdings by up to 56.46 million shares, representing 2% of the total share capital, from November 10, 2025, to February 9, 2026 [3][4]. Group 2: Shareholding Background - Both Great Wall Asset Management and Chenzhou State Control acquired their shares through Hunan Silver's 2020 restructuring plan, with Chenzhou State Control holding 210 million shares and Great Wall Asset Management holding 159 million shares [4][5]. - The restructuring involved a court ruling in November 2020, allowing these entities to acquire shares as part of the capital reserve adjustment process, with Chenzhou State Control investing 266.7 million yuan and Great Wall Asset Management investing 146.05 million yuan [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - As of November 19, 2025, Hunan Silver's closing price was 6.34 yuan, giving it a market capitalization of over 17 billion yuan [5]. - Chenzhou State Control's 210 million shares are valued at approximately 1.3314 billion yuan, about five times its investment, while Great Wall Asset Management's 115 million shares are valued at approximately 729.1 million yuan, also about five times its investment [5]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Hunan Silver reported revenue of 8.594 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.56%, and a net profit of 159 million yuan, up 28.44% [6].