沪铅弱势难改 基本面变化 加工费：2025年10月铅精矿进口量为98342吨实物量，环比下降34.69%，进口量跌至中等均值水平。国内冬季铅精矿市场需求高 涨，国内矿端紧张格局紧张加剧，SMM显示国内外铅精矿加工费低位进一步下滑。11月国内月度加工费250-350元/吨，月度环比 下降50元；进口月度加工费位-150--100美元/干吨，月度环比下降10美元。现货加工费方面，国内铅矿周度加工费为250-350元 /吨，周度环比持平；进口周度加工费为-150--120美元/干吨，周度环比持平。 供应：SMM显示10月全国电解铅产量小幅下滑，环比减少0.56%，环比上升2.66%；10月再生铅产量明显上升，环比增加9.24%， 同比去年增加11.86%。上周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂的平均开工率为67.7%，环比增加0.13%。上周河南地区原生铅冶炼厂产量边际 波动带来小幅增量；此前检修计划原定于11月底的华东地区某冶炼厂本周将进入常规检修，但对电解铅产线影响相对有限，或 将小幅减产。原料端压力凸显，后期原生铅开工率变化不大。SMM再生铅四省周度开工率为50.52%，环比减少2.28%。安徽地区 再生铅周度开工率变化 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent announcements of share reduction plans by major shareholders of Hunan Silver indicate a strategic move following a significant increase in the company's stock price, which has risen over 100% this year [1][6] Shareholder Reduction Plans - China Great Wall Asset Management Co., Ltd. (Great Wall Asset) plans to reduce its holdings by up to 55 million shares, accounting for 1.95% of Hunan Silver's total share capital, from December 11, 2025, to March 10, 2026 [1][2] - The second largest shareholder, Chenzhou State-owned Capital Holding Group Co., Ltd. (Chenzhou Guokong), announced a plan to reduce its holdings by up to 56.46 million shares, representing 2% of the total share capital, from November 10, 2025, to February 9, 2026 [2][3] Shareholding Background - Both Great Wall Asset and Chenzhou Guokong acquired their shares through Hunan Silver's 2020 restructuring plan, with Chenzhou Guokong holding 210 million shares and Great Wall Asset holding 159 million shares [3][4] - The investment amounts for the restructuring were approximately 266.7 million yuan for Chenzhou Guokong and 146.05 million yuan for Great Wall Asset [4] Financial Performance - As of November 19, 2025, Hunan Silver's closing price was 6.34 yuan, with a market capitalization exceeding 17 billion yuan [5] - Chenzhou Guokong's shares are valued at approximately 1.33 billion yuan, about five times its investment, while Great Wall Asset's shares are valued at around 729 million yuan, also about five times its investment [5] - If both shareholders proceed with their planned reductions at the current price, they would realize cash amounts of approximately 358 million yuan and 348.7 million yuan, respectively [5] Business Overview - Hunan Silver's main business includes the smelting and sales of non-ferrous and precious metals such as silver, electrolytic lead, gold, and copper products [6] - The company has seen rapid growth in performance this year, with a revenue of 8.594 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59.56%, and a net profit of 159 million yuan, up 28.44% [6] - The company adjusted its share repurchase price limit from 5 yuan to 8 yuan per share due to the rising stock price [6]

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Silver's stock has shown strong performance this year, with a maximum increase of over 100%, prompting major shareholders to announce share reduction plans [2][6]. Group 1: Shareholder Reduction Plans - China Great Wall Asset Management Co., Ltd. (Great Wall Asset Management), the fourth largest shareholder, plans to reduce its holdings by up to 55 million shares, accounting for 1.95% of Hunan Silver's total share capital, between December 11, 2025, and March 10, 2026 [2][3]. - The second largest shareholder, Chenzhou State-owned Capital Holding Group Co., Ltd. (Chenzhou State Control), announced a plan to reduce its holdings by up to 56.46 million shares, representing 2% of the total share capital, from November 10, 2025, to February 9, 2026 [3][4]. Group 2: Shareholding Background - Both Great Wall Asset Management and Chenzhou State Control acquired their shares through Hunan Silver's 2020 restructuring plan, with Chenzhou State Control holding 210 million shares and Great Wall Asset Management holding 159 million shares [4][5]. - The restructuring involved a court ruling in November 2020, allowing these entities to acquire shares as part of the capital reserve adjustment process, with Chenzhou State Control investing 266.7 million yuan and Great Wall Asset Management investing 146.05 million yuan [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - As of November 19, 2025, Hunan Silver's closing price was 6.34 yuan, giving it a market capitalization of over 17 billion yuan [5]. - Chenzhou State Control's 210 million shares are valued at approximately 1.3314 billion yuan, about five times its investment, while Great Wall Asset Management's 115 million shares are valued at approximately 729.1 million yuan, also about five times its investment [5]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Hunan Silver reported revenue of 8.594 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.56%, and a net profit of 159 million yuan, up 28.44% [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, with electrolytic lead supply rising to 33.47 tons and recycled refined lead supply increasing to 28.58 tons. However, the import window for lead ingots is closed, and battery consumption remains resilient. As a result, social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [2][70] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Lead Market Review - In October, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly, reaching a mid - month high of 17,660 yuan/ton and finally closing at 17,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.66%. London lead continued to oscillate widely, closing at 2,025 US dollars/ton at the end of October, with a monthly increase of 1.96% [7] II. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to August 2025, the global lead concentrate output was 295.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.29%. It is predicted that global lead mine supply will grow by 0.7% to 457 tons in 2025 and 2.2% to 467 tons in 2026. In China, the lead concentrate output from January to September was 124.91 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.54%. With the cold weather, the monthly output is expected to decline month - on - month but remain positive year - on - year [10][11] - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and silver concentrate imports decline month - on - month**: In November, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, down 50 yuan/metal ton month - on - month. The average import processing fee decreased as well. In September, lead concentrate imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Silver concentrate imports in September decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and future imports are expected to be under pressure [17][18] 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead output was 881.3 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.31%. It is predicted that global refined lead output will increase by 2% to 1,334 tons in 2025 and 0.98% to 1,347.2 tons in 2026 [22] - **Refineries are in a state of reduction and resumption, and the monthly supply of electrolytic lead continues to rise**: In October, electrolytic lead output was 32.6 tons. In November, with the resumption of production in multiple regions, the output is expected to increase to 33.47 tons [27] - **The price of waste batteries is stable with a slight increase, and the supply of recycled lead increases marginally**: In October, the average price of waste batteries increased slightly. The output of recycled refined lead in October was 27.29 tons. In November, with the resumption of production of refineries and the output of new capacities, the output is expected to increase to 28.58 tons [33][34] 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead consumption was 875.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.2%. It is predicted that global refined lead demand will grow by 1.8% to 1,325 tons in 2025 and 0.9% to 1,337 tons in 2026. The overseas lead - acid battery market has some resilience but is difficult to improve significantly [45][46] - **At the end of the month, battery enterprises cut production, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises declined**: In October, the operating rate of battery enterprises first rose and then fell. In November, it is expected to rise slightly but not significantly [48][49] - **The Shanghai - London ratio is favorable for lead product imports, and high overseas tariffs and anti - dumping measures put pressure on battery exports**: In September, lead exports decreased month - on - month, and imports increased. Battery exports decreased. It is expected that lead exports will remain low in October, and imports will increase significantly [50][51] - **Terminal growth is slow, and energy storage performs well**: In the automotive sector, production and sales are growing well. In the electric bicycle sector, the new national standard is expected to increase lead consumption. The energy storage battery market continues to grow [58][60] 2.4 Global Visible Inventory Drops from High Levels - In October, LME inventory first increased and then decreased, and the end - of - year high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve significantly. Social inventory continued to decline in October and is expected to stop falling and rise in November [64] III. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, but the import window for lead ingots is closed. Battery consumption remains resilient. Social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [70]

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Silver has seen a significant stock price increase of 137% this year, but its second-largest shareholder, Chenzhou State-owned Assets Holding Group, plans to reduce its stake by up to 56.46 million shares, representing 2.00% of the total share capital [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Chenzhou State-owned Assets Holding Group intends to reduce its holdings between November 10, 2025, and February 9, 2026, through centralized bidding and block trading [1]. - The total market value of the shares to be sold, based on the closing price of CNY 8.04 per share on October 17, is approximately CNY 450 million [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - Hunan Silver, originally known as Chenzhou Jingu Silver Industry Co., Ltd., was established in 2004 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2014, focusing on the smelting and sales of precious and non-ferrous metals [3]. - The company has experienced significant fluctuations in performance, reporting losses in 2022 and 2023, but is projected to recover in 2024 with revenue and net profit expected to grow by 61.76% and 205.65%, respectively [3]. - In the first half of 2025, Hunan Silver reported total revenue of CNY 4.529 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 62.2 million, up 7.01% year-on-year [3].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Silver (002716) announced adjustments to its share repurchase plan to ensure the smooth implementation of its restricted stock incentive plan, raising the maximum repurchase price to 8 CNY per share and adjusting the total repurchase amount to between 92.6 million CNY and 123 million CNY [1][2] Group 1: Share Repurchase Plan - The company plans to repurchase between 17.55 million and 21.38 million shares based on the number of shares already repurchased and the initial grant of the restricted stock incentive plan [1] - The previous repurchase price limit was raised from 5 CNY to 7 CNY per share on September 5, with the new price effective from September 5, 2025 [1] - As of October 16, the company had repurchased 17.55 million shares, accounting for 0.35% of the total share capital, with a total transaction amount of 92.6 million CNY [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Hunan Silver's stock price has surged over 124% since June 1, with the latest closing price at 7.71 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 21.8 billion CNY [2] - The adjustment in the repurchase plan is a cautious decision based on recent stock price performance and market conditions, ensuring no adverse impact on the company's debt servicing ability or ongoing operations [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Hunan Silver reported a revenue of 4.529 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 35.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 62.2 million CNY, up 7.01% [4] - The company achieved a significant increase in its net profit excluding non-recurring items, which rose by 367.41% to 50.9 million CNY, attributed to focused management and cost control efforts [4] - The overall market prices for precious metals, including silver and gold, have been on a continuous rise, contributing to the company's improved financial performance [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The lead market is experiencing wide - range fluctuations. The cost side supports the lead price, but the supply is gradually recovering while the demand fails to meet expectations, increasing the pressure for the lead price to fall after a rise [2][67][68] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Lead Market Review - In September, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated greatly. It rose above 17,000 yuan/ton mid - month due to pre - holiday stocking but fell at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.36%. The center of the London lead price shifted slightly upward, with a monthly decrease of 0.55% [7] 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to July 2025, the global lead concentrate output was 257.5 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. Overseas output is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons, and domestic output is expected to increase by about 70,000 tons [9][10] - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the demand for silver concentrate imports is increasing**: In October, domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees decreased. The import volume of lead concentrate and silver concentrate increased in August. The demand for silver concentrate imports is expected to remain high [15][16] 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to July 2025, global refined lead output was 7.702 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The annual output is expected to be 13.272 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [18] - **Repairing smelters resume production, and electrolytic lead output recovers in October**: In September, electrolytic lead output was 327,800 tons, and it is expected to reach 335,000 tons in October [23] - **The price adjustment space of waste batteries is limited, and the improvement of smelter profits is beneficial to supply recovery**: In September, the price of waste batteries stopped falling and stabilized. The output of secondary refined lead in September was 236,800 tons, and it is expected to reach 256,100 tons in October [28][29] 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to July 2025, global refined lead consumption was 7.676 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. The annual demand is expected to reach 13.19 million tons, with a surplus of 82,000 tons [39] - **Lead battery operation is stable, and the peak consumption season is weak**: In September, the operating rate of lead battery enterprises was slightly better year - on - year but still did not meet expectations. After the holiday, the operating rate will gradually return to the pre - holiday level [42][43] - **The Shanghai - London ratio is favorable for lead product imports, and high overseas tariffs and anti - dumping measures suppress battery exports**: In August, the export volume of refined lead increased, but it is expected to remain low in September. The import volume of refined lead increased, and the export of batteries was under pressure [44][45] - **The terminal sector demand growth is slow, and sector performance is differentiated**: The demand for lead batteries in the automotive and electric bicycle sectors is relatively stable, and the demand in the energy storage sector is expected to grow [57][58][60] 2.4 Global Visible Inventory Drops from a High Level - In September, LME inventory continued to decline from a high level, and social inventory also dropped from a high level. However, inventory is expected to increase again due to the supply - demand mismatch [63][66] 3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The lead ore shortage situation is difficult to ease in the fourth quarter, supporting the lead price. The supply of electrolytic lead and secondary lead is expected to increase in October, but the demand is less than expected. Overall, the lead price is under increasing pressure to fall after a rise [67][68]

Core Insights - The collaboration between Glencore and Jinli Group has been ongoing since 2007, with Jinli Group emerging as a benchmark enterprise in energy conservation and comprehensive recycling in the non-ferrous metal industry [3][4] - Glencore, a global leader in natural resources, reported an estimated total revenue of approximately $240 billion for 2024, ranking 24th in the Fortune Global 500 [3] - The city of Jiyuan, where Jinli Group is located, is a significant hub for non-ferrous metals in China and Asia, contributing 20.2% of the national electrolytic lead production and 23.8% of silver production in 2024 [3][4] Company Overview - Jinli Group has an annual production capacity of 650,000 tons of lead, 200,000 tons of zinc, and 2,000 tons of silver, with a comprehensive recycling capability of nearly 27,000 tons of precious metals [3][4] - Glencore operates in over 60 countries, covering various sectors including minerals, energy, metals, and agricultural products, and is committed to sustainable resource development and efficient utilization [3] Strategic Collaboration - The partnership focuses on resource utilization, technological innovation, and green low-carbon initiatives, leveraging Jiyuan's advanced smelting technologies and complete industrial chain from lead and zinc to precious metals [4] - The collaboration is seen as a model for commercial win-win scenarios and a practical implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to transform Jiyuan from a "raw material city" to a "new materials strong city" [4]

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics reports that China's lead production in August 2025 reached 667,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% despite some production cuts due to maintenance and raw material shortages [1] Group 1: Electrolytic Lead Production - In August, domestic electrolytic lead production increased as medium and large electrolytic lead smelting enterprises in Central, North, and East China resumed operations after maintenance [1] - Although some smelting companies faced production cuts due to maintenance and insufficient ore supply, the overall electrolytic lead output saw a rise [1] Group 2: Recycled Lead Production - Recycled lead production also increased due to the resumption of operations at several smelting plants and the release of new capacity, despite some companies facing raw material shortages and significant losses leading to production halts [1] - The report indicates that while some large smelting plants in East and North China plan to reduce or halt production, the overall recycled lead output remains positively impacted by new capacity coming online [1] Group 3: Outlook for September - Looking ahead to September, SMM notes an increase in maintenance among electrolytic lead smelting enterprises, which may offset some production declines due to resumed operations in Northeast and North China [1] - The supply of waste batteries in North China is expected to be tight during the September 3 military parade, which may lead to limited raw material availability for smelting plants until mid-September [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company held a half-year performance briefing on September 16, 2025, to provide insights into its operational results and financial status, addressing investor concerns and questions [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Outlook - The company acknowledges both opportunities and challenges in the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry, with a positive outlook for 2025 driven by high demand in the automotive and electric bicycle sectors, as well as increased consumption in energy storage [3]. - The price of non-ferrous metals is expected to fluctuate widely throughout the year, while precious metals will be influenced by various factors including monetary policy, global economic uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions [3]. Group 2: Recent Performance - As of December 31, 2024, the company reported total assets of 17.607 billion yuan and net assets of 5.509 billion yuan, with a total operating revenue of 39.345 billion yuan and a net profit of 808 million yuan for the year [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 22.441 billion yuan, an increase of 18.93% year-on-year, with a total profit of 626 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 17.27% [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 485 million yuan for the first half of 2025, which is a 15.12% increase compared to the previous year [5]. Group 4: Competitive Advantages - The company leads in domestic lead smelting technology and has been recognized as a benchmark enterprise for energy efficiency in the non-ferrous metal industry, with several internationally advanced core technologies [6]. - The company has developed proprietary technologies that significantly reduce energy consumption and emissions, positioning itself as a leader in environmentally friendly lead smelting practices [6]. Group 5: Environmental Practices - The company has consistently improved its lead smelting processes and is recognized for its advanced environmental protection measures, being the first in the country to adopt several innovative techniques [6]. Group 6: Product Applications and Quality - The company’s silver products are widely used in various industries, and its main products have achieved high market share and quality recognition, receiving multiple awards for product excellence [7]. Group 7: Profitability Challenges - The company is actively exploring ways to improve profitability in lead products by enhancing the recovery of by-products and focusing on sustainable practices to maximize efficiency [8].