Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The current supply and demand of lead are in a stalemate, and it is expected that the lead price will maintain a range-bound consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.15% month-on-month to 16,700 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract increased by 0.03% month-on-month to 16,850 yuan/ton; the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.12% to 1,981 US dollars/ton [14]. 2. Supply Side 2.1 Ore Tightness Pattern Not Alleviated, Import TC Decreased - The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat month-on-month at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the import lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 15 US dollars/dry ton to -80 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of ore tightness remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of August 8, the smelter profit (excluding by-product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 72.5 yuan/ton [32]. 2.2 Primary Lead开工率 Increased to 68.07% - The primary lead smelter that had undergone maintenance earlier has recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The total weekly output of major deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises is expected to be 52,075 tons [33][38]. 2.3 Recycled Lead开工率 Declined - As of August 15, the average price of waste batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, remaining flat month-on-month. The market - circulating supply of waste batteries is limited, and the quotation is relatively firm. As of August 15, large - scale recycled lead enterprises had a comprehensive loss of 444 yuan/ton, and small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises had a comprehensive loss of 1,023 yuan/ton. As of August 14, the raw material inventory of recycled lead was 132,400 tons, and the finished product inventory was 16,300 tons. The recycled lead enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 41%, and the weekly output decreased [46][49][56]. 3. Demand Side - The lead battery operating rate increased by 2.05 percentage points to 67.3%. From the terminal perspective, battery consumption is average, dealers are mainly consuming inventory, the peak - season effect has not yet appeared, and production enterprises are mainly producing based on sales [63]. 4. Import and Export - As of August 8, the refined lead export loss was about 2,400 yuan/ton. As of August 15, the import profit was -579.41 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [73]. 5. Inventory - As of August 14, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 71,700 tons, with a slight increase. As of August 15, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 64,800 tons, showing a month - on - month increase; as of August 14, the LME inventory was 261,100 tons, showing a decrease [82][85].

1. Report Title and Analyst Information - Report Title: Lead Weekly Report: Weak Supply and Demand, Lead Prices Maintain Range-bound Fluctuations [1] - Analyst: Chen Hansong - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 3. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with lead prices maintaining range-bound fluctuations. The consumption has not improved significantly, and the peak season performance is below expectations. Downstream enterprises only maintain rigid procurement, and the destocking of domestic social inventories is slow. However, the current domestic secondary lead smelters are all in a loss state, and the cost still provides some support for lead prices [4]. - Trading strategies include attempting high selling and low buying within the range for single-side trading, and temporarily observing for arbitrage and options trading [4]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic 4.1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply Side**: This week, the supply and demand of lead concentrates remained in a tight balance. The processing fee for domestic lead concentrates remained at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee for imported lead concentrates decreased by 20 US dollars/dry ton to -80 US dollars/dry ton. The scrap battery market's scrap volume changed little, and smelting enterprises purchased on demand. The prices of lead-containing waste materials changed little compared to the previous period [4]. - **Smelting End**: The average operating rate of SMM's three-province primary lead smelters increased by 0.66% to 68.07% compared to last week. The SMM's four-province weekly operating rate of secondary lead was 40.97%, a decrease of 0.14% from last week. The operating conditions of secondary lead smelting enterprises were relatively stable compared to last week, and the production of some enterprises fluctuated slightly with the arrival of raw materials, resulting in a slight decline in the regional operating rate [4]. - **Consumption End**: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five-province lead battery enterprises was 67.3%, an increase of 2.05% from last week. The operating rate of lead battery enterprises recovered this week because some enterprises that took high-temperature vacations last week resumed normal production, but some enterprises continued to take vacations, with a maximum vacation duration of 10 days. Therefore, the operating rate has not returned to the level of late July. Next week, as other enterprises' high-temperature vacations end, the weekly operating rate will continue to rise [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 14, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 71,700 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from August 11 and an increase of 600 tons from August 7. The LME inventory on August 14 decreased by 4,700 tons to 261,100 tons compared to August 8 [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single-side trading can attempt high selling and low buying within the range; temporarily observe for arbitrage and options trading [4]. 4.1.2 - 4.1.5 - The content mainly lists relevant data such as futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventories, but specific data analysis is not provided in the given text [5][8][11][15] 4.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End 4.2.1 - 4.2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - Lists data related to global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, and domestic lead concentrate total supply and mine operating rates, but specific data analysis is not provided [21][25] 4.2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary - Mentions the prices of lead-containing waste materials and waste batteries, as well as the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but specific data analysis is not provided [32] 4.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End 4.3.1 Global Refined Lead - Lists data on global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but specific data analysis is not provided [39] 4.3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Lists data on import and export profits and losses, import and export volumes, and net export volumes, but specific data analysis is not provided [46] 4.3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits - Lists data on lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid benefits, and silver benefits, but specific data analysis is not provided [48] 4.3.4 Primary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate and production of primary lead smelting enterprises, as well as the production of electrolytic lead's main delivery brands, but specific data analysis is not provided [56] 4.3.5 - 4.3.6 Secondary Lead Supply - Lists data on the cost, profit, operating rate, and production of secondary lead enterprises, but specific data analysis is not provided [59][68] 4.3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Lists data on domestic lead ingot total supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net export, but specific data analysis is not provided [72] 4.4 Chapter 4: Demand End 4.4.1 Lead Batteries - Lists data on the operating rate of lead battery enterprises, dealers' finished product inventory, export and import volumes, and enterprises' finished product inventory, but specific data analysis is not provided [79] 4.4.2 Lead Alloys and Their Plates - Lists data on lead alloy prices, import and export of lead alloys and lead plates, but specific data analysis is not provided [82] 4.4.3 - 4.4.4 Automobiles, Motorcycles, Electricity, and Communications - Lists data on automobile production, export, production structure, motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power engineering, but specific data analysis is not provided [85][88]

Report Basic Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - No prominent contradictions, lead prices mainly range-bound [1] - Report Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The supply of lead concentrates remains tight, and the TC of lead concentrates rich in gold and silver and silver-lead ore with high silver content still has downward pressure; the price of scrap batteries is slightly loose but still firm [3] - The production of primary lead smelters that had undergone maintenance earlier has recovered, and the operating rate has increased; in the secondary lead sector, affected by sewage inspections in Anhui and tight raw materials, the operating rate of some smelters has declined, and the supply has tightened regionally [3] - The demand side is cautious in purchasing. Terminal consumption is average, and electric bicycle dealers stocked up a lot in July, so they are currently consuming inventory. The price increase atmosphere in the wholesale market has faded [3] - The price of secondary lead is inverted with that of electrolytic lead, and downstream buyers prefer electrolytic lead with high cost performance. As the production of electrolytic lead recovers, factory inventories accumulate while social inventories decline. Considering the transfer of futures deliveries, social inventories may accumulate again later [3] - It is expected that the lead price will maintain a range-bound trend in the short term, with the operating range referring to 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 1.06% to 16,725 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price increased by 0.66% to 16,845 yuan/ton; LME lead closing price (electronic board) increased by 1.49% to 2,003.5 US dollars/ton [14] 3.2 Raw Material Situation - The processing fee of domestic lead concentrates remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee of imported lead concentrates decreased by 5 US dollars/dry ton to -65 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weak trend [30] - As of August 8, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous period. The market circulation of scrap batteries is limited, and the quotation is relatively firm [46] 3.3 Supply Side - The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased by 3.3 percentage points to 67.4%. The weekly output of primary lead smelters that can be delivered for settlement was 52,775 tons in the week of August 8, an increase of 4,100 tons compared to the week of August 1 [31][36] - The operating rate of secondary lead smelters decreased by 3.3 percentage points to 41.1%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 46,600 tons, a decrease from the previous week [56] 3.4 Demand Side - The operating rate of lead-acid battery manufacturers decreased by 6.61 percentage points to 65.25%. High-temperature holidays in battery enterprises in Hebei, Zhejiang and other regions led to a significant decline in overall production [64] 3.5 Import and Export - As of August 1, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,400 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the import profit was -694.14 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [77] 3.6 Inventory - As of August 7, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 71,100 tons, a decrease in inventory. Due to downstream buyers' caution and the transfer of lead ingots before delivery, social inventories decreased slightly while factory inventories accumulated [88] - As of August 8, SHFE refined lead inventory was 62,300 tons, a decrease from the previous period; LME inventory was 265,800 tons, also a decrease [91]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lead is "Oscillating Bullish" [3] Core Viewpoints - Overall, the losses of primary and secondary lead enterprises have widened, but there have been few production cuts or restarts, resulting in little marginal change in supply. On the demand side, the peak season is not obvious, dealers' inventories are high, and inventory reduction is poor. The recent marginal variable comes from the sewage inspection in Anhui, where individual secondary smelters have slightly reduced production. The overall production of primary and secondary smelters is normal, and there is no significant change in supply increment. The rigid cost of concentrates and waste batteries supports the bottom of the lead price, and the lead price is mainly in a strong oscillation, with weak monthly spread/ratio drivers [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Company Production and News - Pan American Silver Corp's zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 12,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and lead concentrate production was 6,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22% [6]. - GatosSilver's zinc metal production in Q2 2025 was about 7,300 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29%. Its 2025 zinc production guidance was raised to 52 - 56 million pounds [6]. - Nyrstar received 135 million Australian dollars in support from the Australian government to promote the reconstruction of smelters and the development of key metals [6]. 2. Lead Concentrate Processing Fees - The national average price of lead concentrate processing fees this week was 435 yuan/metal ton, a month-on-month decrease of 55 yuan/ton [3][8]. 3. Lead Concentrate Imports - In June 2025, the import volume of lead ore and its concentrates was about 118,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 13.54% and a year-on-year increase of 26.90% [9]. - As of August 1, the port inventory was 17,700 tons, with a slight increase. The tender price of imported lead ore was inverted by over 100 US dollars, and smelters had poor acceptance [13]. 4. Futures Prices - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton, with a high of 17,010 yuan/ton, a low of 16,820 yuan/ton, and closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.8%. Structurally, Shanghai lead maintained a C structure with small monthly spread contradictions [15]. - Last week, London lead opened at 2,010 US dollars/ton, with a high of 2,042 US dollars/ton, a low of 1,994 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2,040 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.42%. Structurally, the outer market maintained a Contango structure, and the LME lead 0 - 3 spread strengthened, operating around -20 US dollars/ton [18]. 5. Industry Profits - The profit of the primary lead industry was a loss of 800 yuan/ton, with the loss widening month-on-month. There were both production cuts and restarts in primary lead, and after offsetting, production was expected to maintain an increase [25]. - The profit of the secondary lead industry was a loss of 1,000 yuan/ton, with the loss widening month-on-month. Some smelters in Anhui and Hebei planned to end maintenance, and secondary lead supply would increase slightly [27]. 6. Waste Battery Supply - This week, the tax-excluded price of waste electric batteries in most regions was maintained at 9,900 - 9,950 yuan/ton. The market found it difficult to purchase at this price, and the overall price of waste batteries was slightly weak [30]. 7. Inventories - As of August 6, the LME lead ingot inventory was 269,400 tons, unchanged month-on-month [34]. - As of August 1, the SHFE lead inventory was 63,300 tons, unchanged month-on-month [35]. - As of Thursday this week, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 71,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,800 tons [38]. 8. Lead-Zinc Ratio - As of Thursday this week, the domestic lead-zinc ratio was 0.75, and the foreign lead-zinc ratio was 0.71 [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the lead market will see an increase in both supply and demand, with marginal improvement in fundamentals and strong support from the raw material end. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen, operating in the range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to focus on range - based operations [85]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Lead Market Review: Oscillating Downward - In July, consumption was average, lead prices fell from highs, and the price center shifted down. In the middle and late June, tight lead concentrate and scrap batteries led to reduced supply at the ingot end and rising lead prices. In early July, high lead prices suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and prices stabilized. In mid - July, the traditional peak season underperformed, downstream purchasing did not improve substantially, and inventories accumulated, causing lead prices to fall. After the 07 contract delivery, the slow resumption of primary lead and tight scrap batteries led to a temporary supply shortage, and lead prices stopped falling and rebounded slightly but weakened again at the end of the month [9]. - As of July 31, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,675 yuan/ton, down 1.62% from the end of June and 14.05% from the same period last year; the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 1.04% from the end of June and 13.47% from the end of last year; the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16,735 yuan/ton, down 2.70% from the end of June and 11.01% from the same period last year; the closing price of LME three - month lead (electronic trading) was 1,969.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.53% from the end of June and 6.19% from the same period last year [3][10]. 3.2 Raw Materials & Profits: Strong Cost Support 3.2.1 Primary Lead: Lead Concentrate Remains Tight, TC Drops Slightly - As of July 31, the average price of domestic lead concentrate was 16,175 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from the end of June and 14.19% from the same period last year; the average price of imported lead concentrate was 16,031.29 yuan/ton, down 3.09% from the end of June and 5.71% from the same period last year [25]. - In May 2025, global lead concentrate production was 38.28 tons, up 1.46% month - on - month and down 0.05% year - on - year. From January to May, the cumulative production was 181.11 tons, up 2.51% year - on - year. In July, Xinjiang and Qinghai mines increased production, but domestic lead concentrate was still in short supply due to refineries' preference for domestic ore. In June, domestic lead concentrate production was 15.31 tons, up 2.55% month - on - month and 14.94% year - on - year [27]. - Imported lead concentrate had little bulk cargo, and port inventory was basically zero. As of July 31, the profit of imported lead concentrate was 143.71 yuan/ton. In June, lead concentrate imports were 11.80 tons, up 13.54% month - on - month and 26.90% year - on - year [28]. - Refineries' lead concentrate inventory remained high. As of the end of June, refineries' lead concentrate inventory was 41.70 tons, and the raw material inventory days were 26 days. Due to tight ore supply, lead concentrate processing fees declined, but refinery profits improved due to by - product revenues [39]. - As of July 31, primary lead smelting profit (processing) was 46.8 yuan/ton. As of July 25, domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee was - 60 US dollars/dry ton. As of July 27, the average sulfuric acid price in East China was 630 yuan/ton, and the average price of No. 1 silver on July 31 was 8,939 yuan/kg [40]. 3.2.2 Recycled Lead: The Peak Scrap Battery Season Didn't Materialize, Scrap Battery Prices Remained Firm - In July, the peak scrap battery season did not arrive. Recyclers adopted a "quick - in, quick - out" model, and prices were firm. However, recycled lead refineries faced cost inversion and were cautious in purchasing, resulting in a stalemate in the scrap battery market. - As of July 31, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, the comprehensive cost of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 17,257 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was 17,482 yuan/ton. The profit of recycled lead refineries was - 1,174 yuan/ton [43][44]. 3.3 Supply Side: Slight Accumulative Increase 3.3.1 Primary Lead: Slight Decline in Operating Rate - In May 2025, global refined lead production was 111.16 tons, down 0.98% month - on - month and up 3.18% year - on - year. In July in China, primary lead operating rate first declined and then recovered. It is estimated that July production was 32.37 tons, down 1.49% month - on - month and up 5.44% year - on - year [54][55]. 3.3.2 Recycled Lead: Slow Resumption of Operating Rate - Since mid - April, recycled lead operating rate declined due to tight raw materials and weak demand. In July, with the approaching peak season and raw material replenishment, the operating rate slowly recovered. However, high scrap battery prices and weak demand led to light spot trading and increasing finished - product inventory. It is estimated that July production was 25.8 tons, up 13.96% month - on - month and 1.30% year - on - year [60]. 3.4 Demand Side: In the Off - Peak Season 3.4.1 Low Downstream Purchasing in the Consumption Off - Peak Season - In July, the lead - acid battery market was in the transition period between off - peak and peak seasons. Some enterprises planned to stock up, but high inventory levels limited the stocking intensity. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was relatively stable. Electric bicycle battery demand increased, while automobile battery production was based on sales. Due to cost factors, downstream buyers preferred primary lead [68]. 3.4.2 Continuous Closure of the Export Window - In June 2025, lead - acid battery exports were 1,874.46 million units, down 6.69% month - on - month and 20.53% year - on - year. From January to June, cumulative exports were 11,304.30 million units, down 6.61% year - on - year [71]. 3.5 Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - In July, primary lead production was stable, and recycled lead production increased. Demand entered the peak season, and some downstream enterprises stocked up. Primary lead inventory decreased, while recycled lead inventory increased at the end of the month. Social inventory increased due to high spot - futures spreads. - As of July 31, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory was 7.30 tons, up 29.66% from the end of June and 72.99% from the same period last year. SHFE lead inventory was 6.33 tons as of July 25, and LME lead inventory was 27.53 tons as of July 31 [75]. 3.6 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In July, market trading was average, and lead prices oscillated downward. In August, lead prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen due to peak - season expectations and raw material issues. - Macroscopically, China's "anti - involution" sentiment still lingers, and the US inflation restricts the Fed's interest - rate cut path. However, the weak employment data in July increased the expectation of a September interest - rate cut, reducing the pressure on non - ferrous metals. The US has reached 10% - 41% tariff rates with more trading partners, and the effective date of reciprocal tariffs has been postponed to August 7. - Fundamentally, raw material issues strongly support lead prices. Lead concentrate remains tight, and scrap battery supply is limited. On the supply side, primary lead refineries will resume production in August, and recycled lead will resume production slowly. On the demand side, it will enter the traditional peak season, but exports may be affected by tariffs [83][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with the lead price expected to maintain a volatile pattern between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton. Although there is regional tight - supply in primary lead due to maintenance, overall terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the reminder of peak - season demand is not obvious. However, in a generally positive macro - sentiment environment, the lead price may not decline significantly under the influence of the non - ferrous metals sector [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Analysis Mine End - In the week of July 25, the lead concentrate market remained in a tight supply - demand balance with obvious regional differentiation. In Hunan, the processing fee for silver - lead ore was negative, and actual market transactions were scarce. In contrast, supply was relatively loose in Henan and Inner Mongolia, and most smelters were less willing to adjust the pb50 processing fee. Regarding the silver pricing coefficient, only the coefficient of low - silver ore (200 - 500g/ton) was raised to 0.8, while that of high - silver ore remained unchanged [1] Primary Lead - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the primary lead industry dropped to 63.37%, a week - on - week decline of 2.45 percentage points. Supply in Henan was tight due to delayed resumption of maintenance enterprises and production fluctuations in another smelter. Operations in Hunan and Yunnan were basically stable, with only minor output adjustments in individual small and medium - sized plants. Maintenance was the main factor restricting capacity release [1] Recycled Lead - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the recycled lead industry rebounded to 40.68%, a week - on - week increase of 2.84 percentage points. The resumption of an Anhui smelter drove a 6.6 - percentage - point increase in the regional operating rate, and a large - scale enterprise in Inner Mongolia was about to start production. Production in Henan and Jiangsu remained stable, but the recovery volume of waste batteries still restricted capacity release. With the approaching of the traditional peak consumption season, enterprises' production willingness is gradually increasing, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise slightly next week. Tight waste material supply is the main constraint [2] Consumption - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the lead - acid battery industry slightly rose to 71.86%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 percentage points. The market showed structural differentiation: some electric bicycle battery enterprises had an operating rate of up to 90% due to peak - season stocking demand, while automobile battery enterprises' operating rates fluctuated between 70 - 80% under the dual influence of weak domestic consumption and tariff policies, and some enterprises achieved full production by seizing export orders. Overall terminal demand has not improved significantly [2] Inventory - As of July 24, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased to 7.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.24 tons. Affected by continuous maintenance of primary lead and losses in recycled lead, the supply side remained tight. The narrowing price difference between recycled lead and primary lead prompted downstream to turn to primary lead procurement, resulting in a decrease in factory inventory and a slight increase in social inventory [2] Strategy - Given the current situation, the lead price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the price range estimated to be between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint The primary lead production rate declined slightly, while the secondary lead production rate increased from a low level, maintaining a relatively loose supply of lead ingots. The price of lead-acid batteries stopped falling and stabilized, and with the approaching peak season, the purchasing of downstream battery manufacturers improved slightly. However, according to SMM information, the Middle East will impose anti-dumping duties ranging from 25% to 70% on some Chinese or Chinese-invested lead-acid battery enterprises, which will suppress the consumption expectation of lead ingots to some extent. Overall, the supply and demand of lead ingots are slightly in surplus, and there are deliveries in both domestic and overseas inventories. It is expected that the domestic lead price will run weakly [11]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: The Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.36% at 16,958 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 106,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 2.5 to $2,030.5/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 140,700 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, and the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, with a flat price difference between refined and scrap lead. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: According to Steelhome data, the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 65,800 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was recorded at 60,000 tons, with an internal primary basis of -135 yuan/ton and a spread of -30 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts and the first consecutive contract. Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was recorded at 269,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were recorded at 70,800 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was -$24.27/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$58.2/ton. Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was recorded at 1.17, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was -834.57 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Data: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 14,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 439,000 tons, equivalent to 26.4 days. The imported TC of lead concentrates was -$60/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 500 yuan/metal ton. The primary production rate was recorded at 63.37%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. At the secondary end, the scrap lead inventory was 89,000 tons, the weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 32,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 10,000 tons. At the demand end, the operating rate of lead - acid batteries was 71.86% [11]. 02. Primary Supply - Import and Production Data: In June 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 118,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 31.7% and a month - on - month change of 13.6%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 669,400 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.6%. In June 2025, the net import of silver concentrates was 126,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of -1.2% and a month - on - month change of -7.5%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 847,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.6%. In June 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 153,100 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 14.9% and a month - on - month change of 2.5%. From January to June, the total production of lead concentrates was 787,000 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.1%. In June 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 121,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 740,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.0% [15][17]. - Total Supply: In June 2025, the total supply of Chinese lead concentrates was 274,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.3% and a month - on - month change of 3.1%. From January to June, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 1,527,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.9%. In April 2025, the global lead ore production was 380,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.3% and a month - on - month change of 0.0%. From January to April, the total production of lead ore was 1,483,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [19]. - Inventory and Processing Fees: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 14,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 439,000 tons, equivalent to 26.4 days. The imported TC of lead concentrates was -$60/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 500 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - Smelting Data: The primary production rate was recorded at 63.37%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In June 2025, China's primary lead production was 328,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.2% and a month - on - month change of -0.8%. From January to June, the total production of primary lead ingots was 1,884,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.2% [26]. 03. Secondary Supply - Raw Material and Production: At the secondary end, the scrap lead inventory was 89,000 tons. The weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 32,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 10,000 tons. In June 2025, China's secondary lead production was 286,600 tons, a year - on - year change of -13.6% and a month - on - month change of 2.4%. From January to June, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 1,933,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -0.1% [31][33]. - Import and Total Supply: In June 2025, the net export of lead ingots was -7,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 43.5% and a month - on - month change of -22.1%. From January to June, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was -43,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 448.2%. In June 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 622,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 3,862,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.3% [35]. 04. Demand Analysis - Battery Demand: At the demand end, the operating rate of lead - acid batteries was 71.86%. In June 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 624,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.0% and a month - on - month change of 4.5%. From January to June, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 3,826,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.5% [38]. - Battery Export: In June 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,825,850 units, and the net export weight was 99,200 tons. It is estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 62,000 tons, a year - on - year change of -16.9% and a month - on - month change of -5.0%. From January to June, the total net export of lead in batteries was 366,300 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries increased by -3.1% year - on - year [41]. - Inventory Days: In June 2025, the enterprise finished - product inventory days slightly decreased to 26 days, and the distributor inventory days slightly increased to 39.88 days [44]. - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries with lithium - iron phosphate starting batteries, the current high vehicle ownership and high replacement demand for existing vehicles support the relatively high operating rate of starting batteries and domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the rapid development of communication technology and the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations across the country drive the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 05. Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Balance: In June 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a surplus of 0 tons [62]. - Global Balance: In April 2025, the global refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 6,900 tons. From January to April, the cumulative global refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 3,700 tons [65]. 06. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: According to Steelhome data, the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 65,800 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was recorded at 60,000 tons, the internal primary basis was -135 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first consecutive contract was -30 yuan/ton [70]. - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was recorded at 269,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were recorded at 70,800 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was -$24.27/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$58.2/ton [73]. - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was recorded at 1.17, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was -834.57 yuan/ton [76]. - Position Analysis: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead turned to net short, the net long positions of LME lead investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises increased. The position perspective indicates a bearish trend [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Shanghai lead is "volatile", with a wide - range oscillation mainly within the range of 16,800 - 18,500 yuan/ton [3][4][71]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support from waste batteries and demand limit the upside of lead prices. In the second quarter, lead prices may shift to wide - range oscillations. However, due to the persistent shortage of raw materials, the probability of a sharp decline in lead prices in the second quarter is low. It is advisable to adopt a low - buying strategy in the medium - term, and pay attention to the actual performance and sustainability of replacement demand and energy storage increments [4][71]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Performance in Q1 2025 - Lead prices showed a generally bullish trend in Q1 2025, with two cycles of "sustained rise and periodic sharp decline". After the Spring Festival, lead prices soared due to expectations of demand recovery and low inventory accumulation in the industry chain, then fluctuated around 17,000 yuan/ton. Subsequently, there were sharp declines and rebounds due to various factors such as rumors of downstream production cuts, inventory accumulation, and changes in supply - demand relationships [5][8]. 2. Overseas Lead Mine Supply - In 2024, the global lead concentrate production was basically flat year - on - year. In Q1 2025, overseas disturbances decreased significantly, and production was expected to be basically flat quarter - on - quarter. In Q2 2025, there might be an obvious recovery due to the low base in the previous year. The expected overseas lead mine increment in 2025 is about 103,000 metal tons, but the improvement will be less than that of zinc [12][13][14]. 3. Domestic Lead Mine Supply - In 2024, the domestic lead mine shifted from shortage to tight balance. It is expected that the domestic lead mine increment in 2025 will be about 20,000 metal tons, mainly in the second half of the year. In Q1, the lead concentrate import window remained open, and in Q2, imports may decrease quarter - on - quarter but increase year - on - year. The TC has an expectation of increase in the medium - term, but the increase is highly limited [20][24]. 4. Domestic Primary Lead Production - Overseas primary lead production in 2024 was 1.454 million tons (YoY + 1%), and in January 2025, the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons. Domestic primary lead production from January to February was 568,000 tons (YoY - 0.2%), and in March, production increased significantly by 40,000 - 50,000 tons. In Q1 2025, production was expected to be 913,000 tons (YoY + 5.7%). In Q2, there is an expectation of raw material inventory consumption, and it is difficult to repair smelting profits [28]. 5. Domestic Secondary Lead Production - It is estimated that the secondary lead production in Q1 2025 was 725,000 tons (YoY - 6.4%). Waste batteries are expected to be in a more severe shortage in 2025 compared to last year. With the operating loss of secondary lead smelters, there is a possibility of large - scale production cuts in the second quarter when demand weakens [36][47]. 6. Lead Demand - **Initial - stage demand**: After the Spring Festival, the start - up of battery enterprises was generally lower than expected. In April, the traditional lead - acid battery demand entered the off - season, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production arrangements of large enterprises in the future. Energy storage batteries showed obvious growth, and lead - carbon battery manufacturers had sufficient production orders [49][51]. - **Terminal demand**: In Q1, terminal demand may have reached its peak and will weaken marginally in Q2. Electric two - wheelers' replacement demand has recovered due to policies, but the lithium - for - lead substitution process may continue in the long - term. The automotive market was strong in Q1 but weakened in Q2. The communication base station equipment production decreased in 2024 and is expected to improve in 2025. Energy storage will contribute obvious increments [52][58]. - **Overseas demand**: The export of lead - acid batteries in 2024 slowed down. From January to February 2025, exports declined significantly. It is expected that the annual export growth rate of batteries will be adjusted down to - 1%. Exports to Belt and Road countries may increase quarter - on - quarter in Q2 [59]. 7. Inventory and Import - **LME inventory**: There was a concentrated delivery in the LME in mid - March, and the overseas consumption capacity of lead ingots remains weak. - **Domestic social inventory**: After the Spring Festival, the supply recovery rate exceeded demand, and the social inventory is currently at a seasonally neutral - to - high level. In April, social inventory may continue to rise in the short - term. - **Lead ingot import**: In Q1, the import profit and loss was close to the import window of crude lead, and some crude lead flowed in. It is possible that crude lead will continue to flow in Q2 [67]. 8. Second - Quarter Fundamental and Trading Logic Outlook - **Primary lead**: In Q2, primary lead smelters will continue to produce. Pay attention to the overseas mine repair progress and the limitations of raw materials and costs on smelting capacity. - **Secondary lead**: The shortage of waste batteries will continue. Secondary lead smelters may cut production after demand weakens. - **Demand**: Policy - driven replacement demand and high - speed growth in the energy storage sector will offset some of the weakening automotive demand and high - ratio - suppressed export demand. Demand may run stably in Q2. - **Trading logic**: Lead prices may shift to wide - range oscillations in Q2. It is advisable to adopt a low - buying strategy in the medium - term, and pay attention to inter - period positive spreads and internal - external reverse spreads [69].