Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On the supply side, the production of primary lead is expected to increase slightly due to smelter overhauls, and the recovery of recycled lead production is limited by factors such as low raw - material inventory and transportation controls. Short - term lead ingot spot will remain tight. It is recommended to short at high prices. - On the demand side, after the holidays, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded, and the traditional consumption season has boosted demand. However, since September, the increasing Shanghai - London ratio and tariff - affected exports of lead - acid batteries have curbed demand growth. - Inventory has been decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and potential increase in recycled lead production, inventory may change. If the inventory depletion rate slows down, it will resist price increases. Overall, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 17,520 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,016.5 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars. - The 12 - 01 contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 129,190 lots, up 6,702 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 641 lots, up 2,153 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 23,048 tons, unchanged. - The SHFE inventory is 36,333 tons, down 5,368 tons; the LME lead inventory is 235,375 tons, down 4,375 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,440 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 270 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME lead spread (0 - 3) is - 36.64 dollars/ton, up 0.19 dollars. - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,671 yuan, up 275 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,170 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. - The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. 上游情况 - The average operating rate of primary lead is 81.64%, down 1.92 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.91 tons, up 0.18 tons. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is - 2.5 kilotons, up 3.1 kilotons. - The global lead ore output is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate is 380 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The monthly refined lead export volume is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons; the average price of waste batteries is 10,016.07 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 下游情况 - The monthly export volume of lead - acid batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries is 19,475 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 2,042.83 points, up 30.01 points; the monthly automobile output is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [2]. 行业消息 - Multiple political events are reported, including the US dispatching a carrier strike group, Trump - related events, and California governor's election plans. Also, the US may not release inflation data next month [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp rise in Shanghai lead prices is mainly driven by overseas funds, but there is a large expectation that the domestic fundamentals will gradually weaken, and overseas lead supply is not scarce. The upward trend of lead prices lacks sustainable driving force. In the short - term, lead may remain relatively strong, but the risk at high levels is increasing, and it is not advisable to chase the rise [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Content Overseas Market - The cancellation ratio of LME lead inventory warrants has exceeded 60%, and the risk of overseas warrants is relatively large. Although the LME lead inventory has decreased recently, it is still at a high level in recent years, and the overall supply - demand of lead is relatively loose, so the driving force at the spot warrant level is difficult to last [2] Domestic Market - **Supply Side**: Pre - maintenance primary lead enterprises are gradually resuming production, and the supply has increased month - on - month. The supply pressure of recycled lead is also expected to increase in the medium term. Since mid - October, the cost of waste batteries has decreased, the profit of recycled lead enterprises has been continuously repaired, and the willingness to resume production has increased. Although short - term environmental protection control has affected the transportation of recycled lead and adjusted the resumption plan of some refineries, the medium - term supply recovery momentum still exists [4] - **Demand Side**: The demand in the peak consumption season is lower than expected, and the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken [4] - **Inventory**: As of October 20, domestic lead inventory has continued to decline to 32,800 tons, at an absolute low in recent years, indicating that the supply side has not weakened yet. The vehicle control in Hebei has affected the transportation of waste batteries and lead ingots, and short - term environmental protection control has supported lead prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price strategy is cautiously bearish, and the option strategy is to sell calls [3][4] Core View - Due to the off - season of lead - acid battery consumption, weak downstream stocking willingness, and rising inventory, combined with the relatively tight lead ore resources, the lead price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the future. It is recommended to sell on rallies for hedging, with the selling range above 16,850 [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On June 3, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 22.17 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16375 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to - 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16425 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16400 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16450 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 75 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10125 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10000 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10325 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On June 3, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16650 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28541 lots, a decrease of 24390 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the position was 55547 lots, an increase of 2217 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16685 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16525 yuan/ton. In the night session, the opening price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16575 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16635 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On June 3, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 5.0 million tons, an increase of 0.05 million tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 283150 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Shanghai lead is "volatile", with a wide - range oscillation mainly within the range of 16,800 - 18,500 yuan/ton [3][4][71]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support from waste batteries and demand limit the upside of lead prices. In the second quarter, lead prices may shift to wide - range oscillations. However, due to the persistent shortage of raw materials, the probability of a sharp decline in lead prices in the second quarter is low. It is advisable to adopt a low - buying strategy in the medium - term, and pay attention to the actual performance and sustainability of replacement demand and energy storage increments [4][71]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Performance in Q1 2025 - Lead prices showed a generally bullish trend in Q1 2025, with two cycles of "sustained rise and periodic sharp decline". After the Spring Festival, lead prices soared due to expectations of demand recovery and low inventory accumulation in the industry chain, then fluctuated around 17,000 yuan/ton. Subsequently, there were sharp declines and rebounds due to various factors such as rumors of downstream production cuts, inventory accumulation, and changes in supply - demand relationships [5][8]. 2. Overseas Lead Mine Supply - In 2024, the global lead concentrate production was basically flat year - on - year. In Q1 2025, overseas disturbances decreased significantly, and production was expected to be basically flat quarter - on - quarter. In Q2 2025, there might be an obvious recovery due to the low base in the previous year. The expected overseas lead mine increment in 2025 is about 103,000 metal tons, but the improvement will be less than that of zinc [12][13][14]. 3. Domestic Lead Mine Supply - In 2024, the domestic lead mine shifted from shortage to tight balance. It is expected that the domestic lead mine increment in 2025 will be about 20,000 metal tons, mainly in the second half of the year. In Q1, the lead concentrate import window remained open, and in Q2, imports may decrease quarter - on - quarter but increase year - on - year. The TC has an expectation of increase in the medium - term, but the increase is highly limited [20][24]. 4. Domestic Primary Lead Production - Overseas primary lead production in 2024 was 1.454 million tons (YoY + 1%), and in January 2025, the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons. Domestic primary lead production from January to February was 568,000 tons (YoY - 0.2%), and in March, production increased significantly by 40,000 - 50,000 tons. In Q1 2025, production was expected to be 913,000 tons (YoY + 5.7%). In Q2, there is an expectation of raw material inventory consumption, and it is difficult to repair smelting profits [28]. 5. Domestic Secondary Lead Production - It is estimated that the secondary lead production in Q1 2025 was 725,000 tons (YoY - 6.4%). Waste batteries are expected to be in a more severe shortage in 2025 compared to last year. With the operating loss of secondary lead smelters, there is a possibility of large - scale production cuts in the second quarter when demand weakens [36][47]. 6. Lead Demand - **Initial - stage demand**: After the Spring Festival, the start - up of battery enterprises was generally lower than expected. In April, the traditional lead - acid battery demand entered the off - season, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production arrangements of large enterprises in the future. Energy storage batteries showed obvious growth, and lead - carbon battery manufacturers had sufficient production orders [49][51]. - **Terminal demand**: In Q1, terminal demand may have reached its peak and will weaken marginally in Q2. Electric two - wheelers' replacement demand has recovered due to policies, but the lithium - for - lead substitution process may continue in the long - term. The automotive market was strong in Q1 but weakened in Q2. The communication base station equipment production decreased in 2024 and is expected to improve in 2025. Energy storage will contribute obvious increments [52][58]. - **Overseas demand**: The export of lead - acid batteries in 2024 slowed down. From January to February 2025, exports declined significantly. It is expected that the annual export growth rate of batteries will be adjusted down to - 1%. Exports to Belt and Road countries may increase quarter - on - quarter in Q2 [59]. 7. Inventory and Import - **LME inventory**: There was a concentrated delivery in the LME in mid - March, and the overseas consumption capacity of lead ingots remains weak. - **Domestic social inventory**: After the Spring Festival, the supply recovery rate exceeded demand, and the social inventory is currently at a seasonally neutral - to - high level. In April, social inventory may continue to rise in the short - term. - **Lead ingot import**: In Q1, the import profit and loss was close to the import window of crude lead, and some crude lead flowed in. It is possible that crude lead will continue to flow in Q2 [67]. 8. Second - Quarter Fundamental and Trading Logic Outlook - **Primary lead**: In Q2, primary lead smelters will continue to produce. Pay attention to the overseas mine repair progress and the limitations of raw materials and costs on smelting capacity. - **Secondary lead**: The shortage of waste batteries will continue. Secondary lead smelters may cut production after demand weakens. - **Demand**: Policy - driven replacement demand and high - speed growth in the energy storage sector will offset some of the weakening automotive demand and high - ratio - suppressed export demand. Demand may run stably in Q2. - **Trading logic**: Lead prices may shift to wide - range oscillations in Q2. It is advisable to adopt a low - buying strategy in the medium - term, and pay attention to inter - period positive spreads and internal - external reverse spreads [69].