【解剖大盘】 黄金也不错，智通12月金股中国黄金国际(02099)再涨1.47%；紫金黄金国际(02259)也很强，原因是公司 成本低，平均黄金资源采购成本为每盎司61.3美元，而2019至24年的行业平均水平为每盎司92.9美元， 公司在南美洲、澳洲、非洲和中亚均拥有黄金项目，其去年黄金储量和产量在全球采矿业排名第9位和 第11位。今天涨超3%。 国际铜价在上周五和本周一连续突破新高。原因是是9月美国自由港麦克莫兰公司在印尼的Grasberg矿 区发生山体滑坡，导致多人遇难，该矿区随后暂停运营。Grasberg是全球最大的铜金矿之一，年产铜17 亿磅，黄金140万盎司。Grasberg矿区预计在2026年上半年才能逐步恢复生产，这对国际铜市场来说意 味着短期内存在巨大的产能缺口。需求端，数据中心的建设热潮正在大规模地寻求铜材料，新能源产业 以及电网升级进一步增加了对铜的需求，多家分析机构将2026年精炼铜的缺口展望上调至30万至40万吨 量级。相关个股五矿资源(01208)、洛阳钼业(03993)均涨幅超涨3%。铝业也很坚挺，详见板块聚焦。 这行情太难了，猫一天狗一天的，完全没有预期。这就属于垃圾交易时间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively pursuing the mining rights for the Duolong copper mine, with the application having been submitted and currently under review by the relevant authorities [1] Group 1 - The Duolong copper mine mining rights application was officially obtained on September 10, 2025 [1] - The approval opinion from the Ali Regional Administrative Office has been received, and the application has been submitted to the Tibet Autonomous Region Natural Resources Department for further approval [1] - Duolong Company is making every effort to expedite the processing of the mining rights [1]

Group 1 - Chile's copper production in September decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, totaling 456,663 tons [1] - Chile, as the world's largest copper producer, saw its manufacturing output increase by 5% year-on-year in September, which was below economists' expectations of a 6.9% growth [1] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing reliance on foreign upstream resources, excess capacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" in both Chinese and English [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37.864 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.45% [1] - The company is benefiting from rising copper and gold prices, which are expected to continue driving performance growth [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Zijin Mining reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.572 billion yuan, up 57.14% year-on-year and 11.02% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The average gross profit per ton of copper increased by 6% to 38,000 yuan/ton in Q1-Q3 [1] - The average gross profit per gram of gold surged by 64% to 448 yuan/gram in Q1-Q3 [1] Project Development - The lithium carbonate project is progressing steadily and is expected to contribute to performance growth [1] - The company is expanding its resource endowment through both internal growth and external acquisitions, which is likely to enhance copper and gold production [1] Future Outlook - The net profit forecasts for Zijin Mining for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 51.1 billion, 62.1 billion, and 72.9 billion yuan, respectively [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the same period are set at 1.92, 2.34, and 2.74 yuan per share, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.5, 12.7, and 10.9 times [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these projections [1]

Summary of China Gold International Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on China Gold International, a company engaged in gold and copper mining, highlighting its growth potential and investment value in the current economic environment [2][3][10]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Balanced Gold and Copper Strategy**: In the current uncertain economic environment, a balanced allocation between gold and copper is advantageous, especially during a rate-cutting cycle where economic direction is unclear [2][3]. 2. **High Growth Potential**: - Gold production is expected to increase from 5 tons in 2025 to 6.6 tons by 2028, representing a 32% growth. - Copper production is projected to rise from 67,000 tons to 100,000 tons, indicating a 50% increase [2][3]. 3. **Operational Improvements at Changshan Gold Mine**: - Transitioning from open-pit to underground mining, with a new resource report expected to be released next year. - Cost control measures are effective, with cash costs rising due to one-time tax payments but overall costs expected to remain stable [4][5]. 4. **Development at Jiama Copper-Gold Mine**: - The mine has a robust production plan with three phases of capacity expansion expected to double overall production by 2027. - New contracts are improving pricing coefficients, and operational costs are decreasing due to rising prices of by-products [6][7]. 5. **Strong Financial Performance in 2025**: - The company is projected to achieve a profit of approximately 3 billion yuan, with significant contributions from both Jiama and Changshan mines [7]. 6. **Valuation and Market Position**: - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is around 15, indicating a completed valuation recovery. - The company’s valuation is similar to Zijin Mining, benefiting from overall copper stock valuation increases and strong earnings per share (EPS) growth potential [8][9]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Economic Policy Impact**: Recent fiscal and monetary easing policies are expected to boost demand expectations, enhancing the overall valuation of copper stocks [8][9]. 2. **Investment Highlights for the Sector**: - The balanced business model of gold and copper aligns with market demands. - High growth potential from expansion and resource planning in key mining areas. - Strong EPS growth expectations and improving P/E ratios suggest a positive outlook for both China Gold International and the broader non-ferrous metals sector [10].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, Barrick produced 797,000 ounces (24.79 tons) of gold, a 5% increase quarter-over-quarter but a 16% decrease year-over-year. Gold sales were 770,000 ounces (23.95 tons), up 3% quarter-over-quarter but down 19% year-over-year [1][2] - Copper production reached 59,000 tons in Q2 2025, marking a 34% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 37% increase year-over-year. Copper sales were 54,000 tons, up 6% quarter-over-quarter and 29% year-over-year [3][4] - The average realized gold price in Q2 2025 was $3,295 per ounce, a 14% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 41% increase year-over-year [2][7] - The average realized copper price was $4.36 per pound, reflecting a 3% decrease quarter-over-quarter and a 4% decrease year-over-year [4][6] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 2025 was $3.681 billion, an 18% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 16% increase year-over-year [7][20] - Net profit for Q2 2025 was $811 million, a 71% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 119% increase year-over-year [7][20] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was $800 million, up 33% quarter-over-quarter and 44% year-over-year [7][20] - Operating cash flow for Q2 2025 was $1.329 billion, a 10% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 15% increase year-over-year [8][20] Key Business Developments - Barrick is involved in a dispute regarding mining conventions with the Malian government concerning the Loulo-Gounkoto complex, which has led to temporary operational halts [10] - The company completed the sale of its 50% interest in the Donlin gold project for $1 billion, recognizing $745 million in sales proceeds in Q2 2025 [11] - Barrick announced the sale of the Alturas project in Chile, receiving an upfront cash payment of $50 million [12] - A new stock buyback program was authorized, with $268 million of shares repurchased in Q2 2025 [13] 2025 Guidance - Barrick expects gold production in 2025 to be between 3.15 million and 3.50 million ounces, with cost guidance for gold remaining unchanged [16][22] - Copper production is projected to be between 200,000 and 230,000 tons, with cost metrics also provided [18][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the increase in copper prices has a positive impact on the company's performance [1] - The company expects a copper production of 82,000 tons from its mines in 2024 [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, the company's copper production is projected to be 18,900 tons [1]