Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The copper market is facing a structural shortage from 2026 due to the growth of electrification demand outpacing new supply, and geopolitical intervention is a major factor. The copper price has been oscillating at a high level and is at a crossroads for a directional move, so short-term cautious observation is advised [6][10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Shanghai copper continued to oscillate. Overnight, Fed Governor Waller advocated for continued rate - cuts based on the job market, weakening the US dollar index and briefly boosting the copper price. However, the decline in US stocks dampened market sentiment, and the copper price remained in high - level oscillation. The spot price rose 95 to 92240, the spot discount narrowed by 10, the import loss remained over a thousand yuan, the refined - scrap copper price difference was over 4000, and domestic social inventories increased by 0.13 to 16.58 million tons. The market is waiting for the Bank of Japan's interest - rate meeting on Friday. Given the week - long high - level oscillation, the copper price is at a point of directional choice, and short - term cautious observation is recommended [10] 2. Industry News - BloombergNEF pointed out that starting from 2026, the copper market will face a structural supply shortage as electrification demand growth outpaces new supply. Geopolitical intervention is the biggest single factor affecting the metal market. By 2045, energy - transition - related copper demand will triple. If investment and recycling do not increase significantly, the market will face a continuous shortage. BloombergNEF estimates that without new mines or a significant increase in scrap - copper recycling, the copper shortage could reach 19 million tons by 2050 [10] - The Bank of Nova Scotia plans to restart its metal trading department that was dissolved during the peak of the pandemic. It has hired a recruitment agency to build a team for the new department, which will engage in trading, lending, and hedging of precious and base metals, with an initial focus on precious metals. This move comes as the prices of gold, copper, and silver have hit record highs, and market interest in metal trading has resurfaced [10][11]

Core Insights - The International Copper Study Group Secretary General forecasts a 2.3% increase in global copper mine production by 2026, alongside a 2.1% rise in refined copper consumption, leading to an estimated supply shortage of approximately 150,000 tons in the global copper market [1] Industry Summary - Global copper mine production is expected to grow by 2.3% by 2026 [1] - Refined copper consumption is projected to increase by 2.1% [1] - The global copper market is anticipated to experience a supply shortage of around 150,000 tons [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices stabilized on November 24, supported by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the US next month and a weaker dollar [1][4] - On November 24, LME three-month copper closed at $10,773.00 per ton, down $4.50 or 0.04%, after reaching a historical high of $11,200 on October 29 due to supply concerns [1][2] - The dollar has been under pressure since comments from New York Fed President Williams indicated that the Fed could lower rates without jeopardizing inflation targets, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut from 40% to 75% [4] Group 2 - The weakening dollar makes metals priced in dollars cheaper for holders of other currencies, potentially boosting demand [4] - Technical analysis indicates that copper's resistance level is near the 21-day moving average at approximately $10,836, with support around $10,625, the 50-day moving average [4] - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that while copper prices may remain capped at $11,000 per ton in the 2026/2027 fiscal year due to oversupply, a supply shortage is expected later in the decade driven by resource constraints and increased demand from key industries [4]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains the view that the copper market will transition to a supply shortage by 2026 [1] Group 1 - The analysis indicates a significant shift in the copper market dynamics, predicting a supply deficit in the coming years [1]