| | 12月23日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 12.060.50 1 | +135.50 ↑ +1.14% | | 三个月期铝 | 2.939.00 | -2.50 J -0.08% | | 三个月期锌 | 3.093.50 1 | +8.50 ↑ +0.28% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,982.50 ↑ | +11.00 ↑ +0.56% | | 三个月期镇 | 15.739.00 1 | +463.00 ↑ +3.03% | | 三个月期锡 | 42,792.00 | -155.00 -0.36% | 12月23日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜再创历史新高，突破12,000美元大关，受助于美元走 软以及供应趋紧的预期，年底淡静的交投助推了投机性买盘势头。 伦敦时间12月23日17:00(北京时间12月24日01:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨135.5美元，或1.14%，收报每 吨12,060.5美元，盘中创历史新高12,159.50美元。 高盛预计，在关税不确定性挥之不去的 ...

| | 12月22日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 11,925.00 ↑ | +43.50 ↑ +0.37% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,941.50 ↓ | -3.50 J -0.12% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,085.00 1 | +12.50 ↑ +0.41% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,971.50 | -13.00 J -0.66% | | 三个月期镇 | 15,276.00 ↑ | +473.00 ↑ +3.20% | | 三个月期锡 | 42.947.00 J | -280.00 -0.65% | LME铜价今年已飙升近36%，主要受矿山问题造成明年供应短缺的担忧提振。 Commodity Market Analytics董事总经理Dan Smith表示："这在很大程度上与供应方面的紧张有关，但更 广泛的背景是，市场总体上相当活跃，这表明系统中存在大量流动性。" 12月22日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜创纪录新高，受助于投机性买盘及供应短缺担忧。 伦敦时间12月2 ...

伦敦时间12月19日17:00(北京时间12月20日01:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨103.50美元，或0.88%，收报每 吨11,881.50美元。盘中稍早，铜价一度上涨1.3%，高见11,928美元，距离上周创下的11,952美元的纪录 高位近在咫尺。 期铜本周累计上涨3.2%，2025年迄今涨幅超过35%。 | | 12月19日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张默帽 | | 三个月期铜 | 11,881.50 ↑ | +103.50 1 +0.88% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,945.00 ↑ | +29.00 ↑ +0.99% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,072.50 ↑ | +8.50 ↑ +0.28% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,984.50 1 | +21.00 ↑ +1.07% | | 三个月期镇 | 14.803.00 ↑ | +162.00 ↑ +1.11% | | 三个月期锡 | 43,227.00 | +300.00 ↑ +0.70% | 高盛（Goldman Sachs）在周四的一份报告中称：" ...

从具体数据来看，美国在10月减少10.5万个就业岗位，11月增加6.4万个。同时，美国劳工部还下修了8 月和9月的非农就业数据，两月合计新增就业岗位比此前公布的初值减少3.3万个。 12月16日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜收跌，投资者评估最新发布的美国就业数据，而年 底流动性稀缺加剧了铜价波动。 伦敦时间12月16日17:00(北京时间12月17日01:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌63.5美元，或0.54%，收报每吨 11,592美元。 | | 12月16日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 楽器 | | 三个月期铜 | | 11,592.00 - 63.50 -0.54% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,876.50 1 | +10.50 ↑ +0.37% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,041.50 - | -52.00 -1.68% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,942.00 ↑ | +1.00 ↑ +0.05% | | 三个月期镇 | 14,263.00 ↓ | -83.00 ↓ -0.58% | | 三个月期锡 | 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) experienced a significant drop of over 3%, reigniting concerns over a potential burst of the artificial intelligence bubble, leading to widespread sell-offs in risk assets [1]. Group 1: Copper Market Performance - On December 12, LME three-month copper fell by $357, or 3.01%, closing at $11,515 per ton, after hitting a record high of $11,952 earlier in the day [1][2]. - The price decline followed a two-week increase, with copper down 0.9% for the week, while Comex copper plummeted 4% to $5.21 per pound [3]. Group 2: Broader Metal Market Trends - All LME metals saw declines, with three-month aluminum down $31.5 (1.09%) to $2,868.5 per ton, three-month zinc down $78.5 (2.45%) to $3,125.0 per ton, and three-month lead down $20.5 (1.03%) to $1,968.0 per ton [2][4]. - Zinc inventories increased by 1,575 tons to 61,925 tons, the highest level since August, indicating potential supply concerns [4]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Analysts suggest that short-term supply disruptions may keep copper prices around $11,000 per ton, but stronger demand, particularly from China, will be crucial for sustaining price increases [3]. - There are signs of price sensitivity among buyers, indicating potential risks to demand [4].

Group 1 - London copper prices opened strongly this week, reaching a historical high due to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and supply tightness [1] - The three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was reported at $11,706 per ton, up 0.74%, with an earlier peak of $11,771 [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's main copper contract closed up 1.54% at 92,970 yuan per ton, with an intraday high of 93,300 yuan, marking a historical high [1] Group 2 - Market expectations indicate a 0.25 percentage point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, with only 19 out of 108 analysts predicting no change in policy [1] - Analysts expect a "hawkish rate cut" from the Fed, suggesting that future rate cuts may face higher thresholds [1] - A decrease in supply has been noted, with Shanghai Futures Exchange reporting a 9.22% drop in deliverable copper stocks, marking the second consecutive week of decline [1] Group 3 - COMEX copper inventories continued to rise, reaching a total of 436,853 short tons (396,306 metric tons) after hitting a historical high at the end of November [2] - A report indicated that the rise in copper prices is due to a structural mismatch between supply and available inventory, with a premium on COMEX-LME driving metal flows to the U.S. [2] - Citigroup analysts forecast copper prices to rise to an average of approximately $13,000 per ton by the second quarter of next year, up from a previous estimate of $12,000 [2] Group 4 - China's copper ore and concentrate imports in November were 2.526 million tons, with a cumulative total of 27.614 million tons from January to November, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year increase [2] - In November, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 570,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 5.589 million tons from January to November, down 9.2% year-on-year [2] - Most base metal prices increased, with three-month aluminum up 0.45% to $2,910.50 per ton, zinc up 0.7% to $3,119, and lead up 0.4% to $2,010 [2]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices fell on December 2 due to a stronger dollar, decreased risk appetite, and profit-taking after reaching record highs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 2, three-month copper closed at $11,145.00 per ton, down $107.00 or 0.95%, after hitting a historical high of $11,334.00 per ton on the previous day [1][2] - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 27%, primarily driven by concerns over potential shortages [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Factors - Market sentiment remains high for copper, but a correction is anticipated; prices are expected to have upward potential as long as they stay above $11,000 per ton [3] - The strong dollar has made dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies, impacting demand [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The market is assessing the impact of major Chinese smelters' plans to reduce production by 10% next year, which could tighten refined copper supply [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the smelters' reduction plans reinforce the outlook for a tighter refined copper supply [5]

Group 1 - LME copper prices stabilized on November 24, supported by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the US next month and a weaker dollar [1][4] - On November 24, LME three-month copper closed at $10,773.00 per ton, down $4.50 or 0.04%, after reaching a historical high of $11,200 on October 29 due to supply concerns [1][2] - The dollar has been under pressure since comments from New York Fed President Williams indicated that the Fed could lower rates without jeopardizing inflation targets, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut from 40% to 75% [4] Group 2 - The weakening dollar makes metals priced in dollars cheaper for holders of other currencies, potentially boosting demand [4] - Technical analysis indicates that copper's resistance level is near the 21-day moving average at approximately $10,836, with support around $10,625, the 50-day moving average [4] - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that while copper prices may remain capped at $11,000 per ton in the 2026/2027 fiscal year due to oversupply, a supply shortage is expected later in the decade driven by resource constraints and increased demand from key industries [4]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices have declined due to a strong dollar and concerns over weak demand, despite a year-to-date increase of approximately 22% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 20, LME three-month copper fell by $14, or 0.13%, closing at $10,738.50 per ton [1][2]. - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up by $13 (0.46%) and three-month zinc up by $35 (1.17%), while three-month lead fell by $4.50 (0.22%) [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Concerns over weak demand persist, highlighted by a 13.62% month-on-month and 16.32% year-on-year decline in China's refined copper imports for October 2025 [5]. - Cochilco has raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to historical highs due to weak production, now expecting an average price of $4.45 per pound for 2025 and $4.55 per pound for 2026 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices increased slightly, while other base metals mostly declined, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding the reopening of the U.S. government [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On November 13, LME three-month copper rose by $12, or 0.11%, closing at $10,956 per ton [2]. - During the trading session, copper prices briefly surpassed the psychological threshold of $11,000, reaching $11,018 per ton for the first time this month before retracting [1]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - Three-month aluminum increased by $2, or 0.07%, closing at $2,896.50 per ton [2]. - In contrast, three-month zinc decreased by $20, or 0.65%, to $3,055.00 per ton, and three-month lead fell by $17.50, or 0.84%, to $2,078.00 per ton [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Analysts emphasize that strong demand, particularly from major consumer countries, is crucial for sustaining price increases [4]. - Investors are awaiting key economic data from China, including new home prices, retail sales, and industrial output [5]. - The Minneapolis Federal Reserve President noted mixed economic signals, with inflation around 3% and pressures in certain labor market sectors [5]. Group 4: Aluminum Price Forecast - ANZ raised its short-term aluminum price target from $2,700 to $2,900 per ton due to strong demand from manufacturing, construction, and automotive sectors [5]. - The bank forecasts aluminum prices could reach $3,000 per ton by June 2026, driven by tightening supply against rising demand [5].