11月24日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜企稳，交易商称市场预期美国下月将降息以及美元 走软支撑了市场人气。 伦敦时间11月24日17:00(北京时间11月25日01:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌4.5美元，或0.04%，收报每吨 10,773.0美元。10月29日一度触及11,200美元的历史新高，因对供应和短缺的担忧加剧。 | | 11月24日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张紫幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 10,773.00 ↓ | -4.50 ↓ -0.04% | | 三个月期铝 | 2.812.00 ↑ | +26.00 ↑ +0.93% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,000.00 ↑ | +11.00 ↑ +0.37% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,984.00 | -1.00 J -0.05% | | 三个月期镇 | 14,699.00 ↑ | +244.00 ↑ +1.69% | | 三个月期锡 | 37,384.00 ↑ | +489.00 ↑ +1.33% | 数据来源：文华财经 从技术角度来看，铜价阻 ...

WisdomTree大宗商品策略师Nitesh Shah表示，对需求疲软的担忧持续存在。 周四的海关数据显示，中国2025年10月精炼铜进口量为323,144.72吨，环比下降13.62%，同比下降 16.32%。 | | 11月20日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 张跃 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 10,738.50 = -14.00 ↓ -0.13% | | 三个月期铝 | 2.814.00 ↑ +13.00 ↑ +0.46% | | 三个月期锌 | 3.016.00 ↑ +35.00 ↑ +1.17% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,010.50 -4.50 ↓ -0.22% | | 三个月期镇 | 14,501.00 - - 149.00 -1.02% | | 三个月期锡 | 37,068.00 ↑ +115.00 ↑ +0.31% | 数据来源：文华财经 LME期铜今年以来上涨约22%，但从10月29日创下的11,200美元纪录高位回落。 11月20日（周四），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜下跌，受累于美元走强和对需求疲软的担忧。 美元持坚， ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices increased slightly, while other base metals mostly declined, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding the reopening of the U.S. government [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On November 13, LME three-month copper rose by $12, or 0.11%, closing at $10,956 per ton [2]. - During the trading session, copper prices briefly surpassed the psychological threshold of $11,000, reaching $11,018 per ton for the first time this month before retracting [1]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - Three-month aluminum increased by $2, or 0.07%, closing at $2,896.50 per ton [2]. - In contrast, three-month zinc decreased by $20, or 0.65%, to $3,055.00 per ton, and three-month lead fell by $17.50, or 0.84%, to $2,078.00 per ton [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Analysts emphasize that strong demand, particularly from major consumer countries, is crucial for sustaining price increases [4]. - Investors are awaiting key economic data from China, including new home prices, retail sales, and industrial output [5]. - The Minneapolis Federal Reserve President noted mixed economic signals, with inflation around 3% and pressures in certain labor market sectors [5]. Group 4: Aluminum Price Forecast - ANZ raised its short-term aluminum price target from $2,700 to $2,900 per ton due to strong demand from manufacturing, construction, and automotive sectors [5]. - The bank forecasts aluminum prices could reach $3,000 per ton by June 2026, driven by tightening supply against rising demand [5].

Group 1 - LME copper prices continued to decline due to weak demand expectations, a strong dollar, and profit-taking after reaching record highs [1] - As of October 31, LME three-month copper fell by $29.5, or 0.27%, closing at $10,887.5 per ton, marking a drop for the second consecutive day after hitting $11,200 [1][2] - In October, copper prices have increased by $619, or 6.03%, marking the third consecutive month of gains [3] Group 2 - China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.0% in October, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index rose slightly to 50.1% [5] - ING's commodity strategist noted that the sentiment in the base metals market is poor, with supply disruptions expected to keep prices around $10,000 per ton, but strong demand growth is needed for further price increases [5] - Citigroup analysts remain optimistic about copper prices, predicting an increase by 2026 due to cyclical demand expectations and constrained mine supply [5] - A stronger dollar index has added pressure to the market, making dollar-denominated assets more expensive for holders of other currencies [5] - Marex warned that copper prices may further decline, suggesting caution as some indicators hint at potential price corrections [5]

Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - On October 29, LME three-month copper futures reached a record high of $11,183.50 per ton, driven by increasing concerns over copper supply shortages [1][4] - Glencore has revised its 2025 copper production guidance down to between 850,000 and 875,000 tons, exacerbating market worries about supply [4] - Analysts indicate that the market is significantly tighter than at the beginning of the year, with supply issues supporting copper prices [6] Group 2: Other Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum closed at $2,887.00, down $2.00 or 0.07%, after reaching a peak of $2,917.00, the highest since May 2022 [6] - Three-month zinc futures rose by $24.50 or 0.8%, closing at $3,082.50 per ton, with current LME zinc inventory at 35,200 tons, close to the lowest level since March 2023 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw most base metals decline, with copper hitting a one-week low, influenced by concerns over credit pressures in U.S. regional banks, leading to a negative sentiment in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 17, LME three-month copper fell by $42.5, or 0.4%, closing at $10,604.5 per ton, with an intraday low of $10,430, marking a 2% drop and the lowest since October 10 [1][2]. - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down by $11.00 (0.39%), zinc down by $39.50 (1.33%), and tin down by $735.00 (2.05%) [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Copper is viewed as a barometer for the global economy, with recent supply concerns pushing prices to a 16-month high of $11,000 per ton last week [1]. - Recent reports indicate a temporary easing of supply concerns, as copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 550 tons, reaching the highest level since April [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The environment is characterized by a general risk aversion, with high-risk assets under pressure due to concerns over the U.S. economic situation [4]. - The spread between spot copper contracts and three-month forward contracts widened, indicating a decrease in immediate demand for copper [4].

Core Insights - LME copper prices experienced a slight increase, supported by a weaker dollar, but market sentiment was dampened by trade tensions and ongoing U.S. government shutdown uncertainties [1][4] - Concerns over supply tightness due to mining disruptions pushed copper prices to a 16-month high of $11,000 per ton last week [1] Price Movements - LME three-month copper rose by $6, or 0.06%, closing at $10,647 per ton [2] - Other base metals also saw price changes, with three-month aluminum increasing by $42.5 (1.55%) to $2,788.5 per ton, and three-month zinc rising by $25 (0.85%) to $2,973 per ton [2] Economic Impact - The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown could lead to economic losses of up to $15 billion per week, putting pressure on the dollar [4] - Concerns regarding manufacturing growth and demand have led some companies betting on rising copper prices to reduce their positions [4] Market Outlook - Analysts from Goldman Sachs expect the market to remain in a temporary surplus, with current high copper prices reflecting investor optimism for 2026, driven by anticipated Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence [4] - Significant increases in copper demand are anticipated in data centers and power infrastructure investments over the coming years [4] Aluminum Market - Concerns about tightness in the LME aluminum market have led to spot contracts trading at a premium over three-month aluminum, with premiums rising to over $21 per ton, the highest since February [4]

Core Insights - Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached a 16-month high due to supply disruptions causing concerns over shortages [1][4] - The three-month copper contract rose by $111.5, or 1.07%, closing at $10,490.5 per ton, with an intraday peak of $10,531, the highest since May of the previous year [1][2] Price Movements - Three-month copper: $10,490.50, up $111.50 (+1.07%) [2] - Three-month aluminum: $2,692.50, up $4.00 (+0.15%) [2] - Three-month zinc: $3,020.50, up $32.90 (+1.10%) [2] - Three-month lead: $2,024.00, up $13.50 (+0.67%) [2] - Three-month tin: $36,888.00, up $875.00 (+2.43%) [2] Supply Disruptions - Recent supply issues stem from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which halted operations after a deadly landslide on September 8 [4] - Other significant disruptions occurred earlier this year at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the El Teniente mine in Chile [4] Economic Factors - The rise in copper prices is also attributed to pressure on the US dollar due to a government shutdown and economic slowdown concerns [4] - The ongoing partisan divide has led to a lack of funding agreements, resulting in a partial government shutdown [4] Zinc Market Dynamics - LME zinc inventories have decreased by 66% since mid-July, reaching the lowest level since March 2023 at 40,350 tons [4] - Concerns over zinc supply have led to a significant premium for spot zinc over the three-month contract, reaching around $80 per ton, the highest in three years [4]

Group 1: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices increased by $232.5, or 2.28%, closing at $10,414.0 per ton on September 29, driven by a weaker dollar and concerns over global supply due to an incident at the Grasberg copper mine [1][3] - The Grasberg mine has been suspended since September 8 following a fatal landslide, leading analysts to lower supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The copper market is expected to remain supported due to tightening conditions caused by disruptions at the Grasberg mine [3] Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - Three-month aluminum prices rose by $23.5, or 0.88%, to $2,679.0 per ton, while zinc prices increased by $52.0, or 1.80%, to $2,940.5 per ton [2] - Tin prices surged by $987.0, or 2.86%, closing at $35,490.0 per ton, reaching a high not seen since April 4 [4] Group 3: Industry Growth Projections - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, released a plan for the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in value-added output from 2025 to 2026 [3] - The plan includes goals for a 1.5% average annual growth in the production of ten non-ferrous metals, with significant progress expected in domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium [3]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by $56, or 0.56%, closing at $9,940.00 per ton, marking the lowest level since September 10 [1] - The decline in copper prices was attributed to profit-taking by traders following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut announcement and the subsequent strengthening of the US dollar [1][4] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 97.46, although it remains down approximately 10.2% year-to-date, making dollar-denominated metals more expensive for holders of other currencies [4] Group 2 - Among base metals, aluminum was the only one to see an increase, rising by $1.50, or 0.06%, to $2,684.50 per ton due to supply tightness [4] - LME three-month zinc prices decreased by $27, or 0.92%, closing at $2,916.50 per ton [5] - LME three-month lead prices fell by $6.50, or 0.32%, to $2,006.00 per ton [6] - LME three-month nickel prices dropped by $133, or 0.86%, to $15,272.00 per ton [7] - LME three-month tin prices decreased by $634, or 1.85%, to $33,711.00 per ton, reaching the lowest level since August 22 [8]