伦敦时间10月2日17:00(北京时间10月3日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨111.5美元，或1.07%，收报每吨 10,490.5美元，盘中触及10,531美元的去年5月以来最高价位。 10月2日（周四），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价攀升至16个月最高，受助于供应干扰引发的短缺担 忧， | | 10月2日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张默帽 | | 三个月期铜 | 10,490.50 | +111.50 +1.07% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,692.50 1 | +4.00 ↑ +0.15% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,020.50 ↑ | +32.90 ↑ +1.10% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,024.00 ↑ | +13.50 ↑ +0.67% | | 三个月期镇 | 15,317.00 1 | +133.00 ↑ +0.88% | | 三个月期锡 | 36.888.00 1 | +875.00 ↑ +2.43% | 数据来源：文华财经 有关供应的最新消息来自印尼，自由港（Freeport-McMoRa ...

Group 1: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices increased by $232.5, or 2.28%, closing at $10,414.0 per ton on September 29, driven by a weaker dollar and concerns over global supply due to an incident at the Grasberg copper mine [1][3] - The Grasberg mine has been suspended since September 8 following a fatal landslide, leading analysts to lower supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The copper market is expected to remain supported due to tightening conditions caused by disruptions at the Grasberg mine [3] Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - Three-month aluminum prices rose by $23.5, or 0.88%, to $2,679.0 per ton, while zinc prices increased by $52.0, or 1.80%, to $2,940.5 per ton [2] - Tin prices surged by $987.0, or 2.86%, closing at $35,490.0 per ton, reaching a high not seen since April 4 [4] Group 3: Industry Growth Projections - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, released a plan for the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in value-added output from 2025 to 2026 [3] - The plan includes goals for a 1.5% average annual growth in the production of ten non-ferrous metals, with significant progress expected in domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium [3]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by $56, or 0.56%, closing at $9,940.00 per ton, marking the lowest level since September 10 [1] - The decline in copper prices was attributed to profit-taking by traders following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut announcement and the subsequent strengthening of the US dollar [1][4] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 97.46, although it remains down approximately 10.2% year-to-date, making dollar-denominated metals more expensive for holders of other currencies [4] Group 2 - Among base metals, aluminum was the only one to see an increase, rising by $1.50, or 0.06%, to $2,684.50 per ton due to supply tightness [4] - LME three-month zinc prices decreased by $27, or 0.92%, closing at $2,916.50 per ton [5] - LME three-month lead prices fell by $6.50, or 0.32%, to $2,006.00 per ton [6] - LME three-month nickel prices dropped by $133, or 0.86%, to $15,272.00 per ton [7] - LME three-month tin prices decreased by $634, or 1.85%, to $33,711.00 per ton, reaching the lowest level since August 22 [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - On September 17, LME copper prices fell to a one-week low as traders reduced positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with demand from major metal-consuming countries being suppressed due to recent copper price increases [1][4] - LME three-month copper dropped by $130.5, or 1.29%, closing at $9,996.0 per ton, still above the 21-day moving average support level at $9,912 [1][2] - The copper price had previously reached a 15-month high of $10,192.50 per ton on Monday [1] Group 2: Other Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum decreased by $34, or 1.25%, closing at $2,683.0 per ton, after hitting a six-month high of $2,720 [2][5] - LME three-month zinc fell by $48.5, or 1.62%, closing at $2,943.5 per ton [2][6] - LME three-month lead increased by $2.5, or 0.12%, closing at $2,012.5 per ton [2][7] - LME three-month nickel declined by $23, or 0.15%, closing at $15,405.0 per ton [2][8] - LME three-month tin dropped by $536, or 1.54%, closing at $34,345.0 per ton [2][9] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Influences - Alastair Munro from Marex noted that China acted as a seller in the copper market this week, with a lack of systemic buying and bearish mean reversion sell signals contributing to the overall weakness in copper prices [4] - Neil Welsh from Britannia Global Markets indicated that traders are not only focused on the expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve but are also awaiting clarity on future policy directions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices reached a five-month high, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. and concerns over potential supply shortages [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On September 12, LME three-month copper rose by $16, or 0.16%, closing at $10,067.50 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,126, the highest since March 26 [1][2]. - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by approximately 15%, but have struggled to maintain levels above the psychological threshold of $10,000 [4]. - Concerns over supply are significant, particularly with the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia remaining suspended due to ongoing rescue operations for trapped workers [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - LME three-month aluminum increased by $16, or 0.6%, closing at $2,689.50 per ton [2][6]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $57, or 1.97%, closing at $2,957.00 per ton [2][7]. - LME three-month lead increased by $21, or 1.05%, closing at $2,017.50 per ton [2][8]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $241, or 1.59%, closing at $15,391.00 per ton [2][9]. - LME three-month tin increased by $277, or 0.8%, closing at $34,975.00 per ton [2][10]. Group 3: Production Insights - Peru, the world's third-largest copper producer, saw a 2% year-on-year decline in copper production in July, dropping to 228,007 tons [5].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices experienced fluctuations due to fund selling, with a closing increase observed before the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On August 20, LME three-month copper rose by $28.5, or 0.29%, closing at $9,720.5 per ton, after hitting a low of $9,670.50, the lowest since August 7 [1][2]. - Concerns over demand have led to spot copper trading at a discount of nearly $100 per ton compared to three-month copper, marking the deepest discount since February [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - Three-month aluminum prices closed at $2,576.5 per ton, up $13 or 0.51%, after earlier touching a two-week low of $2,558 per ton [2][4]. - The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reported that global primary aluminum production in July was 6.373 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with a daily average production of 205,600 tons [4].

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by $40.5, or 0.41%, closing at $9,733.0 per ton on August 18, influenced by a stronger dollar and uncertainty surrounding key events in the U.S. [1] - The three-month aluminum price decreased by $18.5, or 0.71%, closing at $2,588.5 per ton, while zinc and lead also saw declines of 0.64% and 0.53% respectively [2][6] - The only metal to see an increase was tin, which rose by $8, or 0.02%, closing at $33,702 per ton, supported by low inventory levels [6] Group 2 - ING commodity strategist Ewa Manthey noted that the market is cautious ahead of the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, as well as the upcoming Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole meeting [4] - The U.S. has expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum, which officially took effect on August 18, impacting various products and potentially affecting metal prices [6] - Peru's copper production increased by 7.1% year-on-year in June, reaching 228,932 tons, indicating a positive trend in copper supply [5]

Group 1 - LME copper prices declined due to a stronger US dollar and investor caution regarding tariffs, the Russia-Ukraine situation, and US interest rates [1][4] - On August 14, LME three-month copper fell by $37, or 0.38%, closing at $9,766.00 per ton [1][2] - The strong dollar, influenced by high US producer price inflation, makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [4] Group 2 - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up by $3.50 (0.13%), zinc up by $19.50 (0.69%), and lead up by $1.50 (0.08%), while tin and nickel saw declines [2] - Market analysts are closely watching upcoming events, including the Jackson Hole meeting and the FOMC's release of July meeting minutes, for potential market-moving information [4] - There is potential for market upside, but a triggering factor is needed to break the current trading range of $9,500 to $9,900 [4]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose to a two-week high due to easing trade concerns and a decline in the US dollar following inflation data, closing at $9,840.5 per ton, up $109 or 1.12% [1] - LME copper touched a peak of $9,855 per ton, the highest level since July 28 [1] - The increase in LME copper inventory by over 70% since the end of June, reaching 155,000 tons, has put pressure on copper prices and alleviated supply concerns [3] Group 2 - The US and China agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs on each other's goods for 90 days starting August 12, which may positively impact market sentiment [3] - The US consumer prices showed a moderate increase, enhancing expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could stimulate demand for dollar-denominated metals [3] - LME spot copper has widened its discount to three-month copper to $84 per ton, the largest since February [3]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose to a one-week high, closing at $9,778.50 per ton, up $112.00 or 1.16% due to increased investor risk appetite and bargain buying [1][2] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up 2.00% to $2,629.50, zinc up 2.98% to $2,818.50, and lead up 1.88% to $2,010.00 [2] - BHP Group reported a slight increase in copper production for the fourth quarter, reaching 516,200 tons, up 2.25% year-on-year, and an annual copper production of 2,016,700 tons, an 8% increase from the previous fiscal year [4] Group 2 - Analysts noted that U.S. economic data has improved, boosting hopes for better copper demand and reducing the likelihood of immediate interest rate cuts [4] - LME copper inventories have been rising, particularly in Asian warehouses, as some traders bet on increased buying following recent price declines, though uncertainty remains about whether this will materialize [4] - Peru's copper production fell by 4.6% year-on-year in May, totaling 220,849 tons, highlighting challenges in one of the world's largest copper-producing countries [5] Group 3 - Nickel prices underperformed due to rising inventories and weak demand, with Commerzbank lowering its nickel price forecast for the end of 2025 from $18,000 to $16,000 per ton [6] - Three-month aluminum reached a three-week high of $2,637 per ton, reflecting positive market sentiment [7]