需求方面，目前处于季节性消费淡季，且春节假期临近，近期铝价反复不定，需求端表现疲软，市场现 货交投整体陷入冷淡观望格局，下游企业接货意愿低迷，铝加工企业开工率持续下滑。库存方面，自去 年12月下旬以来，国内铝锭社库持续累积，当前库存水平已高于近两年同期，持续累库对铝价上行有一 定压制。 对于当前走势，新湖期货表示，价格暴跌刺激一定备库行为，不过临近春节，消费总体趋弱，来自终端 厂商的订单减少，下游铝加工企业开工率下降。而供应依旧变化不大，国内产量轻微爬升，进口量有一 定波动。供需基本面趋弱，库存攀升。不过当前库存压力暂有限。当前盘面受宏观情绪影响较大，前期 大幅上涨后转为大跌，短期或继续大幅波动。短线建议谨慎操作。 此前沪铝资金炒作流入了大量资金，昨日在宏观情绪转向，贵金属大跌背景下，恐慌情绪浓郁，使得资 金快速流出，沪铝期价大幅回调，在日盘情绪集中释放后，隔夜主力合约高开，早盘偏弱震荡，午后跌 幅缩窄，收跌0.96%。铝基本面并未出现明显变化，短期受淡季及假期临近影响，需求偏弱，社库累 积，但中长期供需格局仍偏强。 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum calendar spread long [9] Core Views - For electrolytic aluminum, overseas supply and demand are not in an oversupply situation, and domestic fundamentals are stable. Although the recent price increase lacks fundamental support, the price is undervalued, and a deep decline is unlikely. If inventory reduction is smooth, the price may break through upwards. For alumina, the supply pressure remains high, the over - supply pattern persists, and the price is undervalued, but there may be overseas disturbances. [6][8] Key Data Summary Aluminum Spot - On November 12, 2025, the East China A00 aluminum price was 21,670 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 21,550 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 21,530 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On November 12, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 21,660 yuan/ton, closed at 21,880 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 223,798 lots and a position of 420,066 lots [2] Inventory - As of November 12, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 627,000 tons, up 5,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 63,818 tons, down 324 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 544,075 tons, down 1,150 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On November 12, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, Shandong was 2,795 yuan/ton, Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 2,930 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 2,950 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 320 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On November 12, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,815 yuan/ton, closed at 2,821 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.18%, with a trading volume of 267,963 lots and a position of 412,758 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 12, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 17,000 yuan/ton, the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 17,200 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quotation was 21,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The aluminum alloy social inventory was 72,800 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 59,900 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,042 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 142 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - Overseas supply and demand are not in an oversupply situation, and domestic fundamentals are stable. The recent price increase lacks fundamental support, but the price is undervalued. Be vigilant against short - term corrections, and pay attention to the inventory reduction rhythm [6] Alumina - The supply pressure of bauxite remains high, the over - supply pattern persists, and the price is undervalued. However, there may be overseas disturbances [7][8]

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal market is experiencing a downturn, with aluminum futures showing slight strength, closing at 20,880.00 CNY/ton, up 0.10% [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates short-term pressure on the domestic economy, with slowing consumption and investment growth, but there are structural highlights in domestic demand [1] - Future macro policies are expected to maintain a "steady progress" approach, relying on coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize growth [1] Group 2 - Supply side analysis shows that the upstream industry remains relatively loose, but domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is characterized by limited growth, with new capacity mainly from hydropower aluminum in the southwest [1] - The demand side is experiencing structural differentiation, with weak performance in construction materials dragging down overall consumption, while sectors like aluminum cables and plates are seeing slight recovery due to policy stimulus [1] - Looking ahead, market sentiment is influenced by changes in Trump's tariff policies, with expectations of limited aluminum price fluctuations and a preference for a stable oscillation in prices [2]