1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The current macro - environment is favorable, with positive signals from Sino - US economic and trade consultations and continuous efforts of domestic stable - growth policies. However, the demand side is gradually entering the off - season. The aluminum price's ability to break through above 21,500 yuan/ton remains to be seen, and the overall trend is expected to be strong with fluctuations. It is recommended to hold a small - position long position and wait for the price to rise, and spot enterprises can appropriately increase inventory [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The macro - environment is strong, and domestic main funds are bullish. But as the demand side enters the off - season, the aluminum price's upward momentum above 21,500 yuan/ton needs further observation, and it should be treated as strong with fluctuations [4][11]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy was to hold a small - position long position. This week, it is recommended that spot enterprises appropriately increase inventory [8]. 3.3 Overall View Supply - **Bauxite**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea has weakened, and ore shipments are increasing. There are expectations of local mine复产, so imported ore is expected to be abundant in the fourth quarter. Domestic mine governance policies will have long - term constraints on domestic ore, and supply is unlikely to improve significantly in the fourth quarter [9]. - **Alumina**: As of October 31, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 97.2 million tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 85.80%. The cost is lower than in the first half of the year, and the industry is still profitable. Alumina production capacity will drive continuous output growth, and the surplus will continue to expand [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In September, domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 3.6148 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.14% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. The annual net increase is expected to be less than 500,000 tons. In the fourth quarter, production may remain high but is unlikely to increase significantly [9]. Demand - **Aluminum Profiles**: The weekly operating rate of the domestic aluminum profile industry decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 53.5%. Construction profiles are still sluggish, and the industry is expected to enter the off - season in November [10]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 66.4%. As November enters the off - season, the operating rate will decline. The operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable at 71.9%, but there is a risk of weakening terminal demand [10]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The weekly operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 1 percentage point to 63.4%. It is expected to remain in a narrow - range fluctuation [10]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased by 0.2 percentage points to 59.2%, and is expected to gradually approach the annual high. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points to 59.1%, and is expected to remain stable or decline slightly in the short term [10]. Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Ingot**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 617,000 tons, remaining stable compared to last week, about 4% higher than the same period last year. It is expected to accumulate inventory again. The inventory of aluminum rods was 131,500 tons, a decrease of about 6% from last week and about 23% higher than last year [10]. - **LME Aluminum**: The LME aluminum inventory increased by about 18% from last week, about 24% lower than last year, and is still at a low level in recent years [10]. Profit - **Alumina**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,860 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 0 yuan/ton, down from about 20 yuan/ton last week [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,950 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 4,100 yuan/ton, up from 4,000 yuan/ton last week [11]. Market Expectation - The aluminum price is supported at 20,800 yuan/ton and faces pressure at 21,500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the fundamentals have limited impact on the aluminum price, but the macro - sentiment at home and abroad is still relatively optimistic [11]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - This week, the price of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased moderately. The price of domestic ore remained stable, while the price of imported Guinea ore decreased. The price of alumina continued to decline, and the cost support may increase after the dry season in the southwest region [12]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased slightly, while the inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum in some areas increased. The LME aluminum inventory increased significantly but is still at a low level [14][16]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.2%. Affected by multiple factors such as high aluminum prices, environmental protection restrictions, and seasonal changes, the operating rate is expected to decline slowly or fluctuate narrowly [24]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current futures price structure of Shanghai aluminum is weak [29]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,160 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively low level in recent years and has a moderately strong impact on electrolytic aluminum [36][37]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position continued to rise and is near the high level since April 2022. The overall market is still considered strong [39]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract first decreased and then increased, reaching a recent high. The main funds are bullish [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Bullish Oscillation" for the electrolytic aluminum industry [3][10] Core Viewpoints - The domestic electrolytic aluminum market will remain in a tight - balance state in the fourth quarter, with low domestic and foreign visible inventories and anti - involution factors. The core driver of aluminum prices remains strong. Recently, the Sino - US tariff confrontation has eased, and there is an expected Fed rate cut at the end of the month, so the market at the end of the month should be treated bullishly [4][10] - The opening rates of different downstream aluminum processing sectors show differentiation. While the overall short - term opening rate will continue the stable trend [9][23] - The price of bauxite has slightly adjusted, coal prices have rebounded, and alumina prices have continued to decline in a volatile manner since mid - August due to over - capacity [11] Detailed Summaries by Catalog Overall Situation - The Guinea rainy - season impact on bauxite is weakening, with increased ore shipments and higher mine复产 expectations. The domestic bauxite supply is constrained by policies. The alumina production capacity is increasing, and the over - supply is widening. The growth of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited in the fourth quarter [8] - The opening rates of different downstream aluminum products vary. The overall short - term opening rate of the downstream processing industry will remain stable [9][23][24] - The current profit of alumina is about 10 yuan/ton, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum is about 4000 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively high level [10][18] - The market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate decision. Any positive or negative signals will strongly affect the sentiment of global risk assets [10] Price Changes - The price of bauxite has slightly adjusted. Coal prices have rebounded due to safety inspections and early heating starts. Alumina prices have continued to decline since mid - August due to over - capacity [11] - The prices of most aluminum - related products have increased week - on - week, such as the Shanghai Aluminum main - contract closing price, electrolytic aluminum A00, and aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 [11] Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased. The alumina inventory has continued to accumulate. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory has decreased slightly, and the LME aluminum inventory is at a low level and may continue to be sorted at a low level [14][16] Supply and Demand - The overall opening rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing has decreased slightly, showing the characteristics of "stable in the peak season and differentiated internally" [23] - The short - term opening rate of primary aluminum alloy will continue to rise steadily; the demand for aluminum strip is expected to weaken; the aluminum cable high - voltage department has guaranteed orders but limited new growth; automotive profiles are relatively stable, while construction profiles are sluggish, and photovoltaic profiles face production cuts; some aluminum foil orders have weakened; and the resilience of recycled aluminum orders still exists [23] Futures Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure is neutral [26] Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2180 yuan/ton, and the current spread has a moderately positive impact on electrolytic aluminum [33][34] Market Funds - The net long position of LME aluminum continues to rise and is near the high since April 2022. The overall market is still treated bullishly [36] - The net long position of the SHFE electrolytic aluminum remains stable at a recent high. The main funds are slightly bullish [39]

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum is undergoing a value reassessment, transitioning from being viewed as a "common metal" to being recognized as a strategic asset in the global energy transition, akin to copper [2][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global aluminum prices have surged over 6% since October, reaching nearly three-year highs, driven by structural changes in supply and demand [1][3]. - Domestic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, with a utilization rate of 99.41%, indicating limited room for future growth [4][5]. - The demand for aluminum is being bolstered by emerging industries such as electric vehicles and solar energy, which are offsetting declines in traditional sectors [4][5]. Price Influences - The recent price increase is linked to macroeconomic uncertainties, including the U.S. government shutdown and rising gold prices, which have positively impacted non-ferrous metal prices [3][8]. - The correlation between copper and aluminum prices is strong, with rising copper prices enhancing aluminum's market demand as a substitute [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that aluminum prices will likely remain high and may gradually increase, supported by stable supply and demand dynamics [7][8]. - The potential for aluminum to replace copper in various applications is growing, particularly in electrical wiring, due to its cost advantages [6][7]. - The global aluminum market is expected to face challenges from macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks, which could influence price stability [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish Oscillation" rating for the electrolytic aluminum industry [12] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The electrolytic aluminum market in China will remain in a tight - balanced state in the fourth quarter, and the domestic and foreign visible inventories are at historically low levels. However, Sino - US trade confrontation has cast a shadow over domestic demand. Recently, the market may continue the high - level oscillation pattern, with the AI2512 range expected to be between 20,600 and 21,300 [5][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to show a bullish oscillation. The core drivers of aluminum prices remain strong due to the tight - balanced state of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the fourth quarter, low visible inventories at home and abroad, and anti - involution. But Sino - US trade confrontation affects domestic demand. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Not mentioned in detail - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is advisable to wait and see. Consider grid trading based on the recent fluctuation range. If the price reaches 21,300 during the week, appropriate short - term long positions can be added [8] - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Maintain an appropriate inventory. If the price is below 20,000 yuan, consider replenishing the inventory [9] 3.3 Overall Viewpoints Supply - **Bauxite Market**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is weakening, and the ore shipment volume is increasing. The supply of imported ore is expected to be abundant in the fourth quarter. Domestic mine governance policies will restrict domestic ore supply in the long term, and the supply is unlikely to improve significantly in the fourth quarter [10] - **Alumina Market**: As of October 17, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 96.8 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 86.22%. Alumina plants are still profitable, and production will continue to increase, with the surplus expanding [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.14% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. The annual net increase in production is expected to be less than 0.5 million tons. In the fourth quarter, production may remain high but with limited growth [10] - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 2,340 yuan/ton. The export volume of unforged aluminum products decreased slightly in August and September, and the intensifying Sino - US trade confrontation may put pressure on exports from November to December [10] Demand - **Aluminum Profiles**: The weekly operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 53.5%. The photovoltaic profiles were significantly affected by the reduction in downstream component factory production. The operating rate is expected to be stable but weak in the short term [11] - **Aluminum Plate, Strip, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 68.0%, and is expected to decline gradually. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 72.3%, but may weaken due to weakening demand [11] - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The operating rate remained stable at 64%, and is expected to remain weakly stable [11] - **Alloys**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased by 0.4 percentage points to 58.4%, and is expected to continue to be stable. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 58.6%, and is expected to decline slightly in October [11] Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 626,000 tons, a decrease of about 4% from last week and about 3% from the same period last year. The supply pressure of aluminum ingots is limited. The inventory of aluminum rods was 143,100 tons, an increase of about 2% from last week and about 8% from the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by about 3% from last week and about 36% from the same period last year, and is expected to remain low [11][17] Profit and Market Expectation - **Alumina Profit**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,860 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 20 yuan/ton [12] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,000 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,800 yuan/ton [12] - **Market Expectation**: The market is likely to continue the high - level bullish oscillation at the beginning of the week. However, the downstream's willingness to chase high prices is insufficient after "Silver October" is half over. There is a risk of the price rising and then falling [12] 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of bauxite remained stable overall. The price of alumina continued to decline in an oscillatory manner. The price of thermal coal increased due to safety inspections and early heating in the north. The prices of electrolytic aluminum and alloys were adjusted to some extent [13][14] 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of imported bauxite at domestic ports increased slightly, and the supply is abundant. The overall inventory of alumina continued to accumulate. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased. The LME aluminum inventory decreased [15][17] 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises remained stable at 62.5%. The production of primary aluminum alloys was stable, while the procurement of aluminum plate and strip enterprises was cautious. The aluminum cable and wire industry was suppressed by multiple factors. The demand for aluminum profiles was weak, and the export of aluminum foil was affected by sanctions. The demand for recycled aluminum was weak [25] 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current futures price structure of Shanghai aluminum is weak [31] 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 was about - 2,160 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively low level in recent years and has a moderately positive impact on electrolytic aluminum [38][39] 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position continued to rise and is near the high level since April 2022. The long - position camp has been increasing positions since June, and the short - position camp has been on the sidelines since October [41] - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract increased slightly. The long - position camp increased positions slightly, and the short - position camp remained stable. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation increased slightly [44]

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal market is experiencing a downturn, with aluminum futures showing slight strength, closing at 20,880.00 CNY/ton, up 0.10% [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates short-term pressure on the domestic economy, with slowing consumption and investment growth, but there are structural highlights in domestic demand [1] - Future macro policies are expected to maintain a "steady progress" approach, relying on coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize growth [1] Group 2 - Supply side analysis shows that the upstream industry remains relatively loose, but domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is characterized by limited growth, with new capacity mainly from hydropower aluminum in the southwest [1] - The demand side is experiencing structural differentiation, with weak performance in construction materials dragging down overall consumption, while sectors like aluminum cables and plates are seeing slight recovery due to policy stimulus [1] - Looking ahead, market sentiment is influenced by changes in Trump's tariff policies, with expectations of limited aluminum price fluctuations and a preference for a stable oscillation in prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In September, the domestic aluminum market is expected to show a stable - to - strong supply - demand situation. The operating rate of aluminum plants is expected to increase slightly, the proportion of molten aluminum is likely to rise, and the ingot casting volume is expected to decline. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" demand recovery period, downstream orders are expected to increase, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots is approaching the de - stocking inflection point, which is expected to support prices. The price of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, with an attempt to break through and stabilize at the 21,000 yuan/ton level, but attention should be paid to the fulfillment of peak - season expectations and macro - economic policy changes [5][12]. - Currently, the consumption side shows only marginal improvement, and it still takes time for inventory to be effectively reduced. However, due to the low total inventory, the aluminum price is likely to rise rather than fall in the traditional peak season of September, but there is still upward pressure [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: In September, the domestic aluminum plant capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly, the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to increase, and the ingot casting volume is expected to decline. The demand recovery expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October" is strong, downstream orders are expected to increase, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots is approaching the de - stocking inflection point, which is expected to start de - stocking around mid - September, forming support for prices. The supply - demand situation in September is stable and slightly strong [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider holding medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: For Shanghai Aluminum 2510 in the coming week, the support was seen at 20,600, and the resistance was seen at 20,900 - 21,000. It was advisable to wait and see [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: For Shanghai Aluminum 2510 in the coming week, the support is seen at 20,300, and the resistance is seen at 20,900. Short - term trading is advisable [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Maintain an appropriate inventory [9]. Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: The domestic bauxite inventory is at a high level, and raw material supply is abundant [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of September 5, the domestic alumina installed capacity is about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity is about 95.2 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 84.38% (85.58% last week), currently at the highest level since 2022. With the existence of smelting profits, the weekly output remains high, but the spot price has dropped to the high - marginal cost this week, increasing the risk of alumina plant production cuts [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: According to Steel Union data, the current domestic electrolytic aluminum installed capacity is about 45.45 million tons, the operating capacity is about 44.2 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 97%, at the average level since 2023. In September, with the commissioning of a small amount of replacement capacity, the operating capacity will increase slightly, and the output is expected to increase slightly. There is an expectation of a rebound in the proportion of molten aluminum in September [10]. - **Imports and Exports**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,200 yuan/ton (about 1,300 yuan/ton last week). According to customs data, aluminum exports have generally rebounded since March this year and are currently at a relatively high level in recent years. However, in general, the export growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half [10]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 61.7% this week, and the "Golden September" effect is gradually emerging. Different sectors have different performances, such as the slow recovery of the primary aluminum alloy sector, the strong performance of the aluminum strip due to order growth in the automotive and 3C fields, and the rebound of the aluminum cable due to concentrated grid order delivery [11][25]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 628,000 tons, an increase of about 1% compared with last week and about 21% lower than the same period last year. The weekly inventory accumulation pace has slowed down. The aluminum rod inventory is 136,500 tons, an increase of about 8% compared with last week and about 19% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory is basically stable and is still at a low level since 1990, and there is a high probability of further inventory accumulation in the future [11]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 270 yuan/ton (about 380 yuan/ton last week). The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,500 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton (3,100 yuan/ton last week), with profits at a relatively high level [12]. - **Market Expectation**: In September, with the arrival of the consumption peak season, the price of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, with an attempt to break through and stabilize at the 21,000 yuan/ton level, but attention should be paid to the fulfillment of peak - season expectations and macro - economic policy changes [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of most aluminum - related products have changed to varying degrees this week. For example, the price of Henan first - grade alumina decreased by 2.04% week - on - week, and the price of power coal decreased by 1.58% week - on - week. The price of pre - baked anodes in Henan increased by 1.48% week - on - week [13]. - The bauxite bulk cargo trading volume has increased slightly, and the price is expected to remain stable in the near future. The coal price has decreased slightly, and downstream customers are resistant to the current price. The alumina price has continued to decline slightly, with supply exceeding demand, inventory accumulation, and downward pressure on the spot price [13]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 2.16% week - on - week, and it is expected to continue to decline in early September. The overall alumina inventory has continued to accumulate, with the increase mainly coming from electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants [16][18]. - The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in 7 cities increased by 0.96% week - on - week, and the inventory accumulation pace has slowed down. The aluminum rod inventory increased by 7.91% week - on - week, mainly due to the full resumption of processing plants and weak downstream demand. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.75% week - on - week and is still at a low level since 1990 [11][16][18]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure remains neutral. Although the inventory has accumulated recently, the near - month contracts maintain a premium over the far - month contracts, and the futures side is still relatively resistant to decline [31]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,960 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,830 yuan/ton last week. Currently, the spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at the mid - axis level in recent years, and the current spread has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [38][39]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long positions of overseas funds have remained stable in the past three weeks. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's significant interest - rate cut frequency, the price may show a strong - biased volatile trend in the near future [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: This week, the net long positions of the main force remained stable, and both the long and short camps continued to reduce their positions since July. The net long positions of funds with a financial speculation background rebounded slightly, but the camp differentiation is still obvious. The net long positions of funds with a mid - downstream enterprise background remained stable. The market is expected to be dominated by wide - range fluctuations in the near future [44].

Reporting Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a large range, with the price likely to move between 29,500 and 21,300. The lower limit is supported by the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September, domestic anti - involution policies, and the possible invalidation of Trump's tariffs by the US Court of Appeals after mid - October. The upper limit is restricted by the realization of overseas hidden inventories and concerns about the decline in China's export growth in the second half of the year. In the short term, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is likely to continue to accumulate, and the market will be in a state of wide - range oscillation [5][13]. Summary According to the Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 29,500 - 21,300. Buying mid - term long positions can be considered when the price is below 20,000 [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the next week, the support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 is seen at 20,600, and the resistance level is between 20,900 - 21,000. It is advisable to wait and see [8]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: In early September, aluminum prices may still be relatively strong, and the resistance at 21,000 - 21,300 will test the substantial improvement in demand. The support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 for the next week is 20,600, and the resistance level is 20,900 - 21,000 [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 for the next week is 20,600, and the resistance level is 20,900 - 21,000. It is advisable to wait and see. Spot enterprises are recommended to maintain appropriate inventories [8][9]. Overall View - **Supply - side**: China's bauxite inventory has reached the highest level in the same period, and the supply can basically meet the production needs for the year. The alumina capacity utilization rate is at a high level since 2022. The electrolytic aluminum production is at the average level since 2923, and the production ceiling is controllable. The current import of electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical loss of about 1,300 yuan/ton, and the export growth rate is expected to decline in the second half of the year [10]. - **Demand - side**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased. The operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum strips, and aluminum foils is expected to rise, while the growth of primary aluminum alloy is limited. The operating rate of aluminum cables is expected to enter an upward channel, and the orders of some building profiles have increased [12]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased by about 5% compared with last week and is about 23% lower than the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods has increased by about 6% compared with last week and is about 15% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [12][19]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 380 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3,100 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Expectation**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is greater than 80%, and there is a trillion - level infrastructure stimulus and anti - involution support in China. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable and rising, the demand has peak - season expectations but no substantial improvement, and the inventory pressure is prominent, so the aluminum price will oscillate [13]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - **Bauxite**: The price of bauxite is expected to remain stable in the near future, with a slight increase in bulk cargo transactions this week [14]. - **Coal**: Due to the approaching major event, the market is in a wait - and - see state, and the procurement demand is postponed to after September [14]. - **Alumina**: The price continues to decline slightly, with oversupply, inventory accumulation, and a bearish fundamental situation [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has stabilized, the market sentiment has strengthened, and the purchasing willingness has increased [15]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - **Domestic**: The inventory of bauxite in domestic ports has increased slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is likely to continue to accumulate in the short term [17][19]. - **Overseas**: The LME aluminum inventory has basically remained flat in the past two weeks, and it is still at a low level since 1990. It is likely to continue to accumulate in the future [19]. Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit**: The profit of the alumina industry is about 380 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum is about 3,100 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,300 yuan/ton [21]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. Different sectors have different trends, with some expected to rise and some with limited growth [26]. Futures - Spot Structure The current futures price structure of Shanghai Aluminum remains neutral. Although the inventory has accumulated recently, the near - month contract has a premium over the far - month contract, and the futures side is still relatively resistant to decline [31]. Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,830 yuan/ton this week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [38][39]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position is stable. Due to the increasing market divergence, the market will be in a wide - range oscillation in the near future [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has been reduced. The market will be in a wide - range oscillation, and the adjustment pressure in the next week is slightly higher [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，价格重心下移、偏弱运行 [1][2] -铝锭预计价格短期高位震荡，短期内消费仅边际改善，近期区间运行为主 [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Building Materials (Finished Products) -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省部分短流程钢厂停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [1][2] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [2] -成材供需双弱、市场情绪悲观、冬储低迷，价格震荡下行创近期新低 [2] 3.2. Aluminum -宏观上美联储主席讲话强化9月降息预期，国内政策托底但传导至消费需时间 [1] -上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业整体开工率环比升0.8个百分点至59.5%，部分领域开工率有升有降 [2] -预计8月下旬铝线缆、铝板带延续回升，“金九银十”拉动铝箔、铝型材需求 [2] -8月25日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存61.60万吨，较上周四增2.0万吨，较上周一涨0.9万吨，库存回升采购情绪转弱 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that aluminum prices are currently in a range-bound state, influenced by macroeconomic factors and domestic production dynamics [1] - As of this week, the total production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina in the country is 110.32 million tons per year, with an operational capacity of 91.79 million tons per year, reflecting a weekly increase in the operating rate by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% due to the end of maintenance and profit-driven production increases [1] - The operating rate of major domestic aluminum processing enterprises has slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%, while the operating rate for aluminum wire and cable remains stable at 61.8%, supported by demand from power grid orders [1] Group 2 - In July, the total production of aluminum rods was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June, with an operating rate of only 53.2%, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 6.89% and a year-on-year decline of 6.7% due to inventory accumulation, weak demand, and high aluminum prices [1] - Since late July, aluminum prices have retreated, and expectations for terminal deliveries have increased for August and September, suggesting that downstream consumption may recover from the off-season, although current inventory levels at aluminum rod manufacturers still need to be addressed [1] - As of August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas is 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from the previous Thursday, indicating a short-term support for aluminum prices from macroeconomic easing expectations [1]

Group 1 - Aluminum prices exhibited a range-bound movement, influenced by macroeconomic factors and market sentiment regarding potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] - As of Thursday, the total built capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina in the country reached 110.32 million tons per year, with an operational capacity of 91.79 million tons per year, resulting in a utilization rate of 83.20% [1] - The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum processing enterprises slightly increased to 58.7%, while the aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%, supported by demand from power grid orders [1] Group 2 - In July, the national aluminum rod production was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June, with a manufacturer operating rate of only 53.2%, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 6.89% and a year-on-year decline of 6.7% [1] - Factors such as inventory accumulation, weak demand, and high aluminum prices have led aluminum rod manufacturers to reduce production and conduct maintenance [1] - As of August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 588,000 tons, showing an increase compared to the previous Monday and the Thursday of the previous week [1] Group 3 - The macroeconomic expectation of interest rate cuts is supporting aluminum prices, while short-term news from the mining sector is providing a boost to prices [1] - It is anticipated that aluminum prices will remain high in the short term, with a focus on inventory trends and macroeconomic sentiment [1] - Future considerations include macroeconomic expectations, geopolitical factors, mining sector recovery, and consumer demand release [1]