Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In September, the domestic aluminum market is expected to show a stable - to - strong supply - demand situation. The operating rate of aluminum plants is expected to increase slightly, the proportion of molten aluminum is likely to rise, and the ingot casting volume is expected to decline. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" demand recovery period, downstream orders are expected to increase, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots is approaching the de - stocking inflection point, which is expected to support prices. The price of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, with an attempt to break through and stabilize at the 21,000 yuan/ton level, but attention should be paid to the fulfillment of peak - season expectations and macro - economic policy changes [5][12]. - Currently, the consumption side shows only marginal improvement, and it still takes time for inventory to be effectively reduced. However, due to the low total inventory, the aluminum price is likely to rise rather than fall in the traditional peak season of September, but there is still upward pressure [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: In September, the domestic aluminum plant capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly, the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to increase, and the ingot casting volume is expected to decline. The demand recovery expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October" is strong, downstream orders are expected to increase, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots is approaching the de - stocking inflection point, which is expected to start de - stocking around mid - September, forming support for prices. The supply - demand situation in September is stable and slightly strong [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider holding medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: For Shanghai Aluminum 2510 in the coming week, the support was seen at 20,600, and the resistance was seen at 20,900 - 21,000. It was advisable to wait and see [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: For Shanghai Aluminum 2510 in the coming week, the support is seen at 20,300, and the resistance is seen at 20,900. Short - term trading is advisable [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Maintain an appropriate inventory [9]. Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: The domestic bauxite inventory is at a high level, and raw material supply is abundant [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of September 5, the domestic alumina installed capacity is about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity is about 95.2 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 84.38% (85.58% last week), currently at the highest level since 2022. With the existence of smelting profits, the weekly output remains high, but the spot price has dropped to the high - marginal cost this week, increasing the risk of alumina plant production cuts [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: According to Steel Union data, the current domestic electrolytic aluminum installed capacity is about 45.45 million tons, the operating capacity is about 44.2 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 97%, at the average level since 2023. In September, with the commissioning of a small amount of replacement capacity, the operating capacity will increase slightly, and the output is expected to increase slightly. There is an expectation of a rebound in the proportion of molten aluminum in September [10]. - **Imports and Exports**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,200 yuan/ton (about 1,300 yuan/ton last week). According to customs data, aluminum exports have generally rebounded since March this year and are currently at a relatively high level in recent years. However, in general, the export growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half [10]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 61.7% this week, and the "Golden September" effect is gradually emerging. Different sectors have different performances, such as the slow recovery of the primary aluminum alloy sector, the strong performance of the aluminum strip due to order growth in the automotive and 3C fields, and the rebound of the aluminum cable due to concentrated grid order delivery [11][25]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 628,000 tons, an increase of about 1% compared with last week and about 21% lower than the same period last year. The weekly inventory accumulation pace has slowed down. The aluminum rod inventory is 136,500 tons, an increase of about 8% compared with last week and about 19% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory is basically stable and is still at a low level since 1990, and there is a high probability of further inventory accumulation in the future [11]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 270 yuan/ton (about 380 yuan/ton last week). The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,500 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton (3,100 yuan/ton last week), with profits at a relatively high level [12]. - **Market Expectation**: In September, with the arrival of the consumption peak season, the price of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, with an attempt to break through and stabilize at the 21,000 yuan/ton level, but attention should be paid to the fulfillment of peak - season expectations and macro - economic policy changes [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of most aluminum - related products have changed to varying degrees this week. For example, the price of Henan first - grade alumina decreased by 2.04% week - on - week, and the price of power coal decreased by 1.58% week - on - week. The price of pre - baked anodes in Henan increased by 1.48% week - on - week [13]. - The bauxite bulk cargo trading volume has increased slightly, and the price is expected to remain stable in the near future. The coal price has decreased slightly, and downstream customers are resistant to the current price. The alumina price has continued to decline slightly, with supply exceeding demand, inventory accumulation, and downward pressure on the spot price [13]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 2.16% week - on - week, and it is expected to continue to decline in early September. The overall alumina inventory has continued to accumulate, with the increase mainly coming from electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants [16][18]. - The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in 7 cities increased by 0.96% week - on - week, and the inventory accumulation pace has slowed down. The aluminum rod inventory increased by 7.91% week - on - week, mainly due to the full resumption of processing plants and weak downstream demand. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.75% week - on - week and is still at a low level since 1990 [11][16][18]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure remains neutral. Although the inventory has accumulated recently, the near - month contracts maintain a premium over the far - month contracts, and the futures side is still relatively resistant to decline [31]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,960 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,830 yuan/ton last week. Currently, the spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at the mid - axis level in recent years, and the current spread has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [38][39]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long positions of overseas funds have remained stable in the past three weeks. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's significant interest - rate cut frequency, the price may show a strong - biased volatile trend in the near future [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: This week, the net long positions of the main force remained stable, and both the long and short camps continued to reduce their positions since July. The net long positions of funds with a financial speculation background rebounded slightly, but the camp differentiation is still obvious. The net long positions of funds with a mid - downstream enterprise background remained stable. The market is expected to be dominated by wide - range fluctuations in the near future [44].

Reporting Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a large range, with the price likely to move between 29,500 and 21,300. The lower limit is supported by the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September, domestic anti - involution policies, and the possible invalidation of Trump's tariffs by the US Court of Appeals after mid - October. The upper limit is restricted by the realization of overseas hidden inventories and concerns about the decline in China's export growth in the second half of the year. In the short term, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is likely to continue to accumulate, and the market will be in a state of wide - range oscillation [5][13]. Summary According to the Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 29,500 - 21,300. Buying mid - term long positions can be considered when the price is below 20,000 [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the next week, the support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 is seen at 20,600, and the resistance level is between 20,900 - 21,000. It is advisable to wait and see [8]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: In early September, aluminum prices may still be relatively strong, and the resistance at 21,000 - 21,300 will test the substantial improvement in demand. The support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 for the next week is 20,600, and the resistance level is 20,900 - 21,000 [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 for the next week is 20,600, and the resistance level is 20,900 - 21,000. It is advisable to wait and see. Spot enterprises are recommended to maintain appropriate inventories [8][9]. Overall View - **Supply - side**: China's bauxite inventory has reached the highest level in the same period, and the supply can basically meet the production needs for the year. The alumina capacity utilization rate is at a high level since 2022. The electrolytic aluminum production is at the average level since 2923, and the production ceiling is controllable. The current import of electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical loss of about 1,300 yuan/ton, and the export growth rate is expected to decline in the second half of the year [10]. - **Demand - side**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased. The operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum strips, and aluminum foils is expected to rise, while the growth of primary aluminum alloy is limited. The operating rate of aluminum cables is expected to enter an upward channel, and the orders of some building profiles have increased [12]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased by about 5% compared with last week and is about 23% lower than the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods has increased by about 6% compared with last week and is about 15% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [12][19]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 380 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3,100 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Expectation**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is greater than 80%, and there is a trillion - level infrastructure stimulus and anti - involution support in China. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable and rising, the demand has peak - season expectations but no substantial improvement, and the inventory pressure is prominent, so the aluminum price will oscillate [13]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - **Bauxite**: The price of bauxite is expected to remain stable in the near future, with a slight increase in bulk cargo transactions this week [14]. - **Coal**: Due to the approaching major event, the market is in a wait - and - see state, and the procurement demand is postponed to after September [14]. - **Alumina**: The price continues to decline slightly, with oversupply, inventory accumulation, and a bearish fundamental situation [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has stabilized, the market sentiment has strengthened, and the purchasing willingness has increased [15]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - **Domestic**: The inventory of bauxite in domestic ports has increased slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is likely to continue to accumulate in the short term [17][19]. - **Overseas**: The LME aluminum inventory has basically remained flat in the past two weeks, and it is still at a low level since 1990. It is likely to continue to accumulate in the future [19]. Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit**: The profit of the alumina industry is about 380 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum is about 3,100 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,300 yuan/ton [21]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. Different sectors have different trends, with some expected to rise and some with limited growth [26]. Futures - Spot Structure The current futures price structure of Shanghai Aluminum remains neutral. Although the inventory has accumulated recently, the near - month contract has a premium over the far - month contract, and the futures side is still relatively resistant to decline [31]. Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,830 yuan/ton this week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [38][39]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position is stable. Due to the increasing market divergence, the market will be in a wide - range oscillation in the near future [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has been reduced. The market will be in a wide - range oscillation, and the adjustment pressure in the next week is slightly higher [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，价格重心下移、偏弱运行 [1][2] -铝锭预计价格短期高位震荡，短期内消费仅边际改善，近期区间运行为主 [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Building Materials (Finished Products) -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省部分短流程钢厂停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [1][2] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [2] -成材供需双弱、市场情绪悲观、冬储低迷，价格震荡下行创近期新低 [2] 3.2. Aluminum -宏观上美联储主席讲话强化9月降息预期，国内政策托底但传导至消费需时间 [1] -上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业整体开工率环比升0.8个百分点至59.5%，部分领域开工率有升有降 [2] -预计8月下旬铝线缆、铝板带延续回升，“金九银十”拉动铝箔、铝型材需求 [2] -8月25日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存61.60万吨，较上周四增2.0万吨，较上周一涨0.9万吨，库存回升采购情绪转弱 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that aluminum prices are currently in a range-bound state, influenced by macroeconomic factors and domestic production dynamics [1] - As of this week, the total production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina in the country is 110.32 million tons per year, with an operational capacity of 91.79 million tons per year, reflecting a weekly increase in the operating rate by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% due to the end of maintenance and profit-driven production increases [1] - The operating rate of major domestic aluminum processing enterprises has slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%, while the operating rate for aluminum wire and cable remains stable at 61.8%, supported by demand from power grid orders [1] Group 2 - In July, the total production of aluminum rods was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June, with an operating rate of only 53.2%, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 6.89% and a year-on-year decline of 6.7% due to inventory accumulation, weak demand, and high aluminum prices [1] - Since late July, aluminum prices have retreated, and expectations for terminal deliveries have increased for August and September, suggesting that downstream consumption may recover from the off-season, although current inventory levels at aluminum rod manufacturers still need to be addressed [1] - As of August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas is 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from the previous Thursday, indicating a short-term support for aluminum prices from macroeconomic easing expectations [1]

Group 1 - Aluminum prices exhibited a range-bound movement, influenced by macroeconomic factors and market sentiment regarding potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] - As of Thursday, the total built capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina in the country reached 110.32 million tons per year, with an operational capacity of 91.79 million tons per year, resulting in a utilization rate of 83.20% [1] - The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum processing enterprises slightly increased to 58.7%, while the aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%, supported by demand from power grid orders [1] Group 2 - In July, the national aluminum rod production was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June, with a manufacturer operating rate of only 53.2%, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 6.89% and a year-on-year decline of 6.7% [1] - Factors such as inventory accumulation, weak demand, and high aluminum prices have led aluminum rod manufacturers to reduce production and conduct maintenance [1] - As of August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 588,000 tons, showing an increase compared to the previous Monday and the Thursday of the previous week [1] Group 3 - The macroeconomic expectation of interest rate cuts is supporting aluminum prices, while short-term news from the mining sector is providing a boost to prices [1] - It is anticipated that aluminum prices will remain high in the short term, with a focus on inventory trends and macroeconomic sentiment [1] - Future considerations include macroeconomic expectations, geopolitical factors, mining sector recovery, and consumer demand release [1]

Group 1 - Aluminum prices remained high last week, supported by improved market sentiment due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum showed steady growth, while the shipment of bauxite from Guinea is expected to decline starting in August due to seasonal impacts [1] - Domestic downstream processing enterprises' operating rates slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%, with aluminum cable operating rates stable at 61.8% [1] Group 2 - The operating rate for aluminum foil decreased to 68.4%, influenced by declining demand for air conditioning foil and uncertainties in new energy policies [1] - The operating rate for recycled aluminum remained steady at 53.1%, facing downward pressure due to weak seasonal demand and high-temperature holidays [1] - As of August 11, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas reached 587,000 tons, reflecting fluctuations due to uneven arrivals [1] Group 3 - Short-term aluminum prices are expected to remain high, with attention needed on geopolitical crises, macroeconomic policy implementation, supply increases, and consumption recovery [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The short - term market is in a state of intense competition between "anti - involution" and the decline in social inventory out - flow during the off - season, and may be in a consolidation phase. The price of the SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 20,200 and 20,900 [5][13]. - In the medium term, due to factors such as the continuous decline in the out - flow rate of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory during the off - season, the lack of mention of alumina capacity clearance in the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027, and the production increase in Shanxi alumina, the supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being. However, there is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the "anti - involution" background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze with low warehouse receipts and a high virtual - to - real ratio. It is recommended to hold long positions at low levels in the medium term [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range oscillation. In the off - season, the out - flow rate of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory continues to decline. The supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being, but there is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the "anti - involution" background, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions at low levels in the medium term [5]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract was expected to oscillate between 20,500 and 21,100. It was advisable to appropriately arrange long positions near the lower end of the range [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The price may enter a wide - range oscillation phase. The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Hedging Recommendation for Spot Enterprises**: Consider appropriately allocating virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. 3. Overall View Supply - related - **Bauxite Market**: In the short term, the supply of domestic bauxite is limited, and the price is expected to remain stable. The inventory of imported bauxite at ports and alumina plants is high, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious in the short term. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter. If Guinea's shipments remain low and domestic bauxite inventory continues to decline, the price may turn upward in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Alumina Market**: In July, the operating capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina remained stable at about 88.27 million tons per year. There is a new production capacity project in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity may reach a new high in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to the rainy season in Guinea and the operating capacity of alumina under the "anti - involution" background [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: With the recovery of domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting profits this year, some production capacity that was cut last year has gradually resumed production. Currently, the utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has exceeded 95%. Due to the production capacity ceiling, there is limited new production capacity in the future [10]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,300 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been increasing. Although the growth rate has declined since April due to tariff disturbances, overall, it shows resilience [10]. Demand - related - **Aluminum Profiles**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum profile enterprises remained stable at 50.5% this week. The new orders for construction profiles are weak, and the overall operating rate of industrial profiles remained stable. In the off - season, the market is difficult to achieve significant growth and is expected to remain stable in the short term [12]. - **Aluminum Sheet, Strip and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 69.6%. With the upcoming high - temperature holidays in August, some upstream production enterprises may make production - cut plans, and the operating rate of the aluminum foil industry will continue to remain low in the short term. The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises remained stable at 63.2%, and it will maintain a low - level operation under the weak domestic and overseas demand [12]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.6% this week. Although it is still at a low level in the short term, there are signs of marginal improvement, and the operating rate is expected to enter a recovery phase in August [12]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 54.0%. The industry is in a game between "aluminum water allocation - led" and "aluminum price suppressing demand". Although the export volume data is better than expected recently, the export situation may still be deeply adjusted, and substantial recovery depends on clear policies and alleviation of cost pressure. The operating rate of leading secondary aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1% this week. Affected by factors such as declining demand, difficult raw material replenishment, and profit inversion, the operating rate is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [12]. Inventory - related - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The latest inventory of aluminum ingots is 512,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 35% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 137,800 tons, a decrease of about 10% from last week and an increase of about 5% from the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July and is still at a low level since 1990 [12]. Profit - related - **Alumina Profit**: Currently, the average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton, compared with about 550 yuan/ton last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: Currently, the average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton, the same as last week, and the profit is at a relatively high level [13]. Market Expectation and Outlook - **Market Expectation**: There is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal of alumina under the "anti - involution" background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze. However, considering that the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027 does not mention alumina capacity clearance and the production increase in Shanxi alumina, the supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being. Attention should be paid to the supply - side clearance policy, and beware of the downward trend if the expectation is not met. In the short term, the long - short game is intense [13]. - **Personal View**: The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is the lowest in the whole year. August is the window period for the conversion between the off - season and the peak season. With the easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. With the implementation of domestic "anti - involution" and stable - growth policies, the supply - demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically. In the next week, due to the continuous decline in the out - flow rate of aluminum ingots during the off - season, the "anti - involution" expectation has cooled down, and the price may enter a wide - range oscillation phase. The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900 [13]. - **Key Concerns**: Whether the inventory of LME and domestic electrolytic aluminum accumulates more than expected and the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [13]. - **Direction**: The market is in a large - range oscillation and is expected to strengthen slightly in August [13]. 4. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The downstream purchasing enthusiasm for bauxite is average. In August, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to be reflected in the domestic bauxite supply, and imports are expected to decline. The price of imported bauxite is expected to oscillate between 70 - 75 US dollars per dry ton in the short term. The coal price continued to rise steadily this week, and there is an expectation of marginal tightening of domestic supply before September. The alumina price rose first and then fell, and there is no obvious sign of a trend reversal [14]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum rose first and then fell this week, and was blocked again at the 21,000 level. The short - term market may be in a consolidation phase [15]. 5. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite continued to increase slightly. The inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The LME aluminum inventory continued to increase, mainly due to weak overseas demand and the new position - limit rule of LME's near - month contracts [17][19]. 6. Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit Situation**: This week, the average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton. The theoretical loss of alumina imports is about 100 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton. The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Downstream Processing Enterprises**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline slightly next week [25][26]. 7. Futures - Spot Structure - The overall price structure of SHFE aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the strength has weakened compared with last month [30]. 8. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,430 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,330 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the price of electrolytic aluminum [37][38]. 9. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has been rising slightly in the past 11 weeks. Since May, the short side has been reducing positions overall, and the long side has been increasing positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [40]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has decreased slightly. Both the long and short sides have increased positions slightly in the past week. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation first increased and then decreased, generally remaining at the same level as last week. The net short position of funds mainly from mid - downstream enterprises has decreased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range fluctuations, with an overall upward - biased trend in July and August [5][13]. - In the short term, aluminum prices may fluctuate with a slight upward bias, with the upper pressure level around 21,000 yuan [13]. - Considering the current off - season and weak downstream new orders, the spot premium continues to decline, which may put pressure on aluminum prices in the next 1 - 2 weeks. However, due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation, anti - involution, a 45 million - ton supply ceiling, and uncertainties in overseas mine disturbances, the downside space is limited. The range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 in the next week is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900 yuan [5][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range fluctuation, expected to be upward - biased in July and August. Although the spot premium decline may pressure aluminum prices in the next 1 - 2 weeks, the downside space is limited due to multiple factors [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level fluctuating market [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The expected fluctuation range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract last week was 20,300 - 20,800 yuan, and short - term trading was recommended [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The expected range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 this week is 20,200 - 20,900 yuan. Appropriate long positions can be arranged near the lower end of the range [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. 3.3 Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Ore Market**: From August, China's bauxite imports from Guinea are expected to decrease. The annual import volume in the second half of the year may decline compared to the first half, with a risk of a supply - demand gap. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter and may turn upward in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Alumina Market**: As of July 11, the domestic metallurgical alumina production capacity was about 111.75 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 91.9 million tons and an operating rate of about 82%. There is room for the operating capacity to reach a new high in the third quarter. The 95% percentile cash cost and full cost are in the ranges of [2800, 3000] and [3000, 3200] yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative production from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity was 96% at the end of June, remaining stable month - on - month and 0.32% higher than the same period last year [11]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1350 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been growing, and although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, they still show resilience [11]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of the aluminum profile industry remained stable at 49.5%. The operating rate of the aluminum plate and strip industry decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 63.2%, and that of the aluminum foil industry remained stable at 69.6%. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 61.6%. The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 54.0%, and that of the recycled aluminum industry remained stable at 53.6% [12]. - **Inventory**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 465,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from the previous two weeks and about 41% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 156,800 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and about 8% from the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased slightly this week [12]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 550 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,500 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3300 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Expectation**: Affected by the frequent adjustment of US tariff policies, the commodity market is more volatile. The supply side is stable, the demand side is weak, and the spot basis has widened. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short term, with the upper pressure level around 21,000 yuan [13]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The price of bauxite from Guinea decreased slightly, while the prices of bauxite from Australia and Indonesia remained stable. The price of alumina increased slightly, and the price of electrolytic aluminum was relatively strong. The price of aluminum alloy and aluminum rods also increased slightly [14]. - The overall supply of domestic alumina is in surplus, but due to uncertainties in the mine end and anti - involution, the downside space is limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 2800 - 3300 yuan [14]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum is supported by strong costs and restricted by weak demand. It is expected that the price of ADC12 will maintain a weak and narrow - range fluctuation pattern in July [14]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased slightly, the alumina inventory increased slightly, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the aluminum rod inventory increased. The LME aluminum inventory continued to increase [16][17]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - For the whole year of 2025, the domestic aluminum supply - demand is expected to be tighter than in 2024. It may experience seasonal surplus in July and tighten up after August [18]. - The domestic alumina supply is in surplus in 2025, and the year - on - year growth rate of production is expected to be higher than that of demand in the third quarter [20]. - The overall operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6%. Different sectors showed different trends, but generally faced downward pressure [25]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still relatively strong, but the strength has weakened compared to June. Aluminum prices may fluctuate at a high level in mid - to late July [30]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1260 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [37][38]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - For the LME aluminum variety, the net long position has continued to rise slightly. Since May, the short position has been reduced, and the long position has increased slightly since early June. The market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [40]. - For the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum variety, the net long position of the main force has continued to increase slightly. The long - position camp has remained stable, and the short - position camp has decreased slightly. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has decreased slightly, and the net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has remained stable. The market may fluctuate at a high level next week [43].

Company Overview - Ningbo KBE Electrical Technology Co., Ltd. is a company established from the transformation of a limited liability company into a joint-stock company, with its establishment date on March 5, 2004 [1][2] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of automotive cables, serving as a secondary supplier in the automotive supply chain [2][3] - The company has a total share capital of 134,951,140 shares and is listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange under the stock code 300863 [1][2] Business Operations - The main products include various types of automotive cables such as conventional cables, aluminum cables, twisted pair cables, shielded cables, new energy cables, and multi-core sheathed cables [2][3] - The company has obtained certifications from major automotive manufacturers and is recognized as a high-tech enterprise, holding 52 patents as of March 31, 2025 [2][3] Financial Performance - The total assets of the company for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 were 358,912.47 million, 374,696.60 million, and 281,635.52 million respectively [5] - The company reported operating revenues of 294,840.82 million in 2022, 345,193.07 million in 2023, and 364,801.63 million in 2024 [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 14,005.17 million in 2022, 16,594.46 million in 2023, and 16,165.45 million in 2024 [5] Market Position - The automotive wiring harness market is highly concentrated, with the top five companies holding approximately 60%-70% of the market share [11] - The company has established long-term stable supply relationships with major automotive wiring harness manufacturers, including Volkswagen, BMW, and Toyota [2][11] Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to high customer concentration, with over 60% of sales coming from the top five customers [11] - Fluctuations in copper prices can significantly impact the company's profit margins and working capital requirements [10][11] - The company must continuously innovate and adapt to meet the evolving technical requirements of automotive manufacturers [12][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term trend of electrolytic aluminum is a large - range oscillation. New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level oscillation market. The future week's fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract is expected to be between 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton, and short - term trading is recommended. Spot enterprises can consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventories at low prices [5][8]. - Domestically, supportive policies continue to be implemented, but the electrolytic aluminum production is approaching the bottleneck with limited incremental output this year. Overseas, there is high macro - uncertainty. The global primary aluminum production growth rate in 2025 is expected to be only 1.9%. The export of aluminum products in the second half of the year has great uncertainties [5][9]. - Affected by the off - season, aluminum processing enterprises generally have weak new orders, and the operating rate is under pressure. It is expected that the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing will continue to decline slightly next week [10][24][25]. - The aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. The price of the aluminum rod market next week is expected to oscillate between 20000 - 20800 yuan/ton [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The mid - term trend presents a large - range oscillation. Domestic supportive policies continue to be implemented, production is approaching the bottleneck with limited incremental output this year, but overseas macro - uncertainty is high. New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level oscillation market [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the future week was expected to be between 20300 - 20900 yuan/ton [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the future week is expected to be between 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton, and short - term trading is recommended. Spot enterprises can consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventories at low prices [8]. Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Bauxite Market**: In June, China's aluminum bauxite production decreased by 3.2% month - on - month and increased by 4.1% year - on - year. Recently, domestic production has declined due to inspections and is expected to recover after the inspections end. In July, the arrival of imported aluminum bauxite in China is expected to remain high, but the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to gradually emerge [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of July 3, China's alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, the operating capacity was 88.63 million tons, and the weekly national operating rate was 79.97%, a decrease of 0.31% from last week. In the second half of the year, both domestic and overseas supply and demand will be in an oversupply situation, but the degree of oversupply has narrowed compared with the first quarter [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of the end of June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.82 million tons, and the production in June increased by 1.57% year - on - year. The resumption of production in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places is nearing completion, and new production capacity is difficult to release due to environmental protection policies and energy consumption dual - control. Overseas production is limited by high energy costs, and the overall capacity utilization rate is high. The global primary aluminum production growth rate in 2025 is expected to be only 1.9% [9]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1350 yuan/ton. The export of aluminum products in the second half of the year has great uncertainties. It may maintain a certain resilience or even perform better than expected, but it may also face significant downward pressure [9]. - **Demand**: The national profile operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% this week. Affected by the off - season, aluminum processing enterprises generally have weak new orders and the operating rate is under pressure [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased by about 3% compared with the previous week and decreased by about 39% compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate next week. The inventory of aluminum rods increased by about 9% compared with last week and was about 9% higher than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased slightly in the past two weeks [10][14][15]. - **Profit**: Currently, the average cash cost of China's alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 500 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17400 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3300 yuan/ton, which is at a relatively high level [11]. - **Market Expectation**: Domestically, favorable policies continue to be strengthened, and the direction of promoting consumption remains unchanged. Overseas, the macro - situation is mixed with risks. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate at a high level in the short term, and the price of the aluminum rod market next week will oscillate between 20000 - 20800 yuan/ton [11]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of domestic aluminum ore remain stable, and the spot trading in the imported ore market is light. The price of动力煤is expected to remain strong in the short term. The spot price of alumina has increased slightly, and the price of the aluminum rod market next week is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3050 yuan/ton [12]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported aluminum bauxite has decreased slightly. The alumina inventory has remained relatively stable. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas is expected to continue to accumulate, and the inventory of aluminum rods has increased significantly. The LME aluminum inventory has continued to accumulate [14][15][16]. Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 500 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17400 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3300 yuan/ton [18]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week. Affected by factors such as high aluminum prices, insufficient profits, and weak downstream demand, it is expected that the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing will continue to decline slightly next week [24][25]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the market has low expectations for the upward space of the aluminum price in the second half of the year [29]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1260 yuan/ton, which is lower than last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [35][36]. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of the LME aluminum variety has continued to rise slightly in the past 8 weeks. The short - selling camp has reduced positions in the past month, and the long - buying camp has increased positions in the latest period. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [37].