晨报 铝锭 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2025 年 8 月 26 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价高位运行。宏观上上周美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话强化 了 9 月降息的预期。他表示，美国就业市场的风险正在上升，但通胀仍是 一个威胁。国内 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【昨日铝价区间运行，后续关注多因素影响】昨日，铝价呈区间运行态势。宏观层面，周四美国数据虽 未动摇9月降息理由，但引发市场担忧，关税或在未来数月刺激通胀，改变今年剩余降息进程。交易员 倾向于下月降息25个基点，10月再降25个基点。 基本面来看，截至本周四，全国冶金级氧化铝建成总 产能11032万吨/年，运行总产能9179万吨/年，周度开工率上调0.63个百分点至83.20%，因部分企业检修 结束和利润驱动提产，运行产能回升。上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率微升0.1个百分点至58.7%。 铝线缆开工率持稳于61.8%，电网订单支撑需求，但行业复苏节奏不一，旺季特征未完全显现，预计8 月中旬开工率小幅回升。7月全国铝杆总产量36.05万吨，较6月降2.96万吨，开工率仅53.2%，环比降 6.89%，同比降6.7%。受厂内库存堆积、需求惨淡、铝价高企影响，铝杆厂家减产检修。 7月下旬以 来，铝价回落，8 - 9月终端提货预期增加，下游消费有望走出淡季，但当前铝杆厂内库存仍需消化，8 月铝杆供需格局预期改善。8月14日，国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存58 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【昨日铝价区间运行，后续关注多因素影响】昨日，铝价呈区间运行态势。宏观层面，周四美国数据虽 未改变9月降息预期，但引发市场担忧，关税或刺激通胀、改变后续降息进程。交易员倾向于下月和10 月各降息25个基点。 基本面看，截至本周四，全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能11032万吨/年，运行总产能 9179万吨/年，开工率升至83.20%，因部分企业检修结束及提产，运行产能回升。上周国内铝下游加工 龙头企业开工率微升至58.7%。 铝线缆开工率稳于61.8%，电网订单支撑需求，但行业复苏不一，旺季 特征未显，预计8月中旬开工率小涨。7月全国铝杆产量36.05万吨，较6月降2.96万吨，厂家开工率仅 53.2%，环比降6.89%，同比降6.7%。 受库存堆积、需求惨淡、铝价高企影响，铝杆厂家减产检修。7月 下旬以来铝价回落，8 - 9月终端提货或增加，下游消费有望走出淡季，8月铝杆供需格局预期改善。8月 14日电解铝锭库存58.8万吨，较周一和上周四均有上涨。 宏观降息预期支撑铝价，基本面矿端消息短期 提振价格，预计近期铝价高位运行，后续关注库消走势。预计价格短 ...

Group 1 - Aluminum prices remained high last week, supported by improved market sentiment due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum showed steady growth, while the shipment of bauxite from Guinea is expected to decline starting in August due to seasonal impacts [1] - Domestic downstream processing enterprises' operating rates slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%, with aluminum cable operating rates stable at 61.8% [1] Group 2 - The operating rate for aluminum foil decreased to 68.4%, influenced by declining demand for air conditioning foil and uncertainties in new energy policies [1] - The operating rate for recycled aluminum remained steady at 53.1%, facing downward pressure due to weak seasonal demand and high-temperature holidays [1] - As of August 11, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas reached 587,000 tons, reflecting fluctuations due to uneven arrivals [1] Group 3 - Short-term aluminum prices are expected to remain high, with attention needed on geopolitical crises, macroeconomic policy implementation, supply increases, and consumption recovery [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The short - term market is in a state of intense competition between "anti - involution" and the decline in social inventory out - flow during the off - season, and may be in a consolidation phase. The price of the SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 20,200 and 20,900 [5][13]. - In the medium term, due to factors such as the continuous decline in the out - flow rate of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory during the off - season, the lack of mention of alumina capacity clearance in the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027, and the production increase in Shanxi alumina, the supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being. However, there is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the "anti - involution" background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze with low warehouse receipts and a high virtual - to - real ratio. It is recommended to hold long positions at low levels in the medium term [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range oscillation. In the off - season, the out - flow rate of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory continues to decline. The supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being, but there is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the "anti - involution" background, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions at low levels in the medium term [5]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract was expected to oscillate between 20,500 and 21,100. It was advisable to appropriately arrange long positions near the lower end of the range [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The price may enter a wide - range oscillation phase. The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Hedging Recommendation for Spot Enterprises**: Consider appropriately allocating virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. 3. Overall View Supply - related - **Bauxite Market**: In the short term, the supply of domestic bauxite is limited, and the price is expected to remain stable. The inventory of imported bauxite at ports and alumina plants is high, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious in the short term. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter. If Guinea's shipments remain low and domestic bauxite inventory continues to decline, the price may turn upward in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Alumina Market**: In July, the operating capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina remained stable at about 88.27 million tons per year. There is a new production capacity project in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity may reach a new high in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to the rainy season in Guinea and the operating capacity of alumina under the "anti - involution" background [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: With the recovery of domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting profits this year, some production capacity that was cut last year has gradually resumed production. Currently, the utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has exceeded 95%. Due to the production capacity ceiling, there is limited new production capacity in the future [10]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,300 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been increasing. Although the growth rate has declined since April due to tariff disturbances, overall, it shows resilience [10]. Demand - related - **Aluminum Profiles**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum profile enterprises remained stable at 50.5% this week. The new orders for construction profiles are weak, and the overall operating rate of industrial profiles remained stable. In the off - season, the market is difficult to achieve significant growth and is expected to remain stable in the short term [12]. - **Aluminum Sheet, Strip and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 69.6%. With the upcoming high - temperature holidays in August, some upstream production enterprises may make production - cut plans, and the operating rate of the aluminum foil industry will continue to remain low in the short term. The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises remained stable at 63.2%, and it will maintain a low - level operation under the weak domestic and overseas demand [12]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.6% this week. Although it is still at a low level in the short term, there are signs of marginal improvement, and the operating rate is expected to enter a recovery phase in August [12]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 54.0%. The industry is in a game between "aluminum water allocation - led" and "aluminum price suppressing demand". Although the export volume data is better than expected recently, the export situation may still be deeply adjusted, and substantial recovery depends on clear policies and alleviation of cost pressure. The operating rate of leading secondary aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1% this week. Affected by factors such as declining demand, difficult raw material replenishment, and profit inversion, the operating rate is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [12]. Inventory - related - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The latest inventory of aluminum ingots is 512,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 35% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 137,800 tons, a decrease of about 10% from last week and an increase of about 5% from the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July and is still at a low level since 1990 [12]. Profit - related - **Alumina Profit**: Currently, the average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton, compared with about 550 yuan/ton last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: Currently, the average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton, the same as last week, and the profit is at a relatively high level [13]. Market Expectation and Outlook - **Market Expectation**: There is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal of alumina under the "anti - involution" background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze. However, considering that the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027 does not mention alumina capacity clearance and the production increase in Shanxi alumina, the supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being. Attention should be paid to the supply - side clearance policy, and beware of the downward trend if the expectation is not met. In the short term, the long - short game is intense [13]. - **Personal View**: The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is the lowest in the whole year. August is the window period for the conversion between the off - season and the peak season. With the easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. With the implementation of domestic "anti - involution" and stable - growth policies, the supply - demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically. In the next week, due to the continuous decline in the out - flow rate of aluminum ingots during the off - season, the "anti - involution" expectation has cooled down, and the price may enter a wide - range oscillation phase. The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900 [13]. - **Key Concerns**: Whether the inventory of LME and domestic electrolytic aluminum accumulates more than expected and the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [13]. - **Direction**: The market is in a large - range oscillation and is expected to strengthen slightly in August [13]. 4. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The downstream purchasing enthusiasm for bauxite is average. In August, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to be reflected in the domestic bauxite supply, and imports are expected to decline. The price of imported bauxite is expected to oscillate between 70 - 75 US dollars per dry ton in the short term. The coal price continued to rise steadily this week, and there is an expectation of marginal tightening of domestic supply before September. The alumina price rose first and then fell, and there is no obvious sign of a trend reversal [14]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum rose first and then fell this week, and was blocked again at the 21,000 level. The short - term market may be in a consolidation phase [15]. 5. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite continued to increase slightly. The inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The LME aluminum inventory continued to increase, mainly due to weak overseas demand and the new position - limit rule of LME's near - month contracts [17][19]. 6. Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit Situation**: This week, the average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton. The theoretical loss of alumina imports is about 100 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton. The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Downstream Processing Enterprises**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline slightly next week [25][26]. 7. Futures - Spot Structure - The overall price structure of SHFE aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the strength has weakened compared with last month [30]. 8. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,430 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,330 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the price of electrolytic aluminum [37][38]. 9. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has been rising slightly in the past 11 weeks. Since May, the short side has been reducing positions overall, and the long side has been increasing positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [40]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has decreased slightly. Both the long and short sides have increased positions slightly in the past week. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation first increased and then decreased, generally remaining at the same level as last week. The net short position of funds mainly from mid - downstream enterprises has decreased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range fluctuations, with an overall upward - biased trend in July and August [5][13]. - In the short term, aluminum prices may fluctuate with a slight upward bias, with the upper pressure level around 21,000 yuan [13]. - Considering the current off - season and weak downstream new orders, the spot premium continues to decline, which may put pressure on aluminum prices in the next 1 - 2 weeks. However, due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation, anti - involution, a 45 million - ton supply ceiling, and uncertainties in overseas mine disturbances, the downside space is limited. The range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 in the next week is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900 yuan [5][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range fluctuation, expected to be upward - biased in July and August. Although the spot premium decline may pressure aluminum prices in the next 1 - 2 weeks, the downside space is limited due to multiple factors [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level fluctuating market [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The expected fluctuation range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract last week was 20,300 - 20,800 yuan, and short - term trading was recommended [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The expected range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 this week is 20,200 - 20,900 yuan. Appropriate long positions can be arranged near the lower end of the range [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. 3.3 Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Ore Market**: From August, China's bauxite imports from Guinea are expected to decrease. The annual import volume in the second half of the year may decline compared to the first half, with a risk of a supply - demand gap. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter and may turn upward in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Alumina Market**: As of July 11, the domestic metallurgical alumina production capacity was about 111.75 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 91.9 million tons and an operating rate of about 82%. There is room for the operating capacity to reach a new high in the third quarter. The 95% percentile cash cost and full cost are in the ranges of [2800, 3000] and [3000, 3200] yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative production from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity was 96% at the end of June, remaining stable month - on - month and 0.32% higher than the same period last year [11]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1350 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been growing, and although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, they still show resilience [11]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of the aluminum profile industry remained stable at 49.5%. The operating rate of the aluminum plate and strip industry decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 63.2%, and that of the aluminum foil industry remained stable at 69.6%. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 61.6%. The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 54.0%, and that of the recycled aluminum industry remained stable at 53.6% [12]. - **Inventory**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 465,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from the previous two weeks and about 41% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 156,800 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and about 8% from the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased slightly this week [12]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 550 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,500 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3300 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Expectation**: Affected by the frequent adjustment of US tariff policies, the commodity market is more volatile. The supply side is stable, the demand side is weak, and the spot basis has widened. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short term, with the upper pressure level around 21,000 yuan [13]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The price of bauxite from Guinea decreased slightly, while the prices of bauxite from Australia and Indonesia remained stable. The price of alumina increased slightly, and the price of electrolytic aluminum was relatively strong. The price of aluminum alloy and aluminum rods also increased slightly [14]. - The overall supply of domestic alumina is in surplus, but due to uncertainties in the mine end and anti - involution, the downside space is limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 2800 - 3300 yuan [14]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum is supported by strong costs and restricted by weak demand. It is expected that the price of ADC12 will maintain a weak and narrow - range fluctuation pattern in July [14]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased slightly, the alumina inventory increased slightly, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the aluminum rod inventory increased. The LME aluminum inventory continued to increase [16][17]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - For the whole year of 2025, the domestic aluminum supply - demand is expected to be tighter than in 2024. It may experience seasonal surplus in July and tighten up after August [18]. - The domestic alumina supply is in surplus in 2025, and the year - on - year growth rate of production is expected to be higher than that of demand in the third quarter [20]. - The overall operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6%. Different sectors showed different trends, but generally faced downward pressure [25]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still relatively strong, but the strength has weakened compared to June. Aluminum prices may fluctuate at a high level in mid - to late July [30]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1260 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [37][38]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - For the LME aluminum variety, the net long position has continued to rise slightly. Since May, the short position has been reduced, and the long position has increased slightly since early June. The market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [40]. - For the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum variety, the net long position of the main force has continued to increase slightly. The long - position camp has remained stable, and the short - position camp has decreased slightly. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has decreased slightly, and the net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has remained stable. The market may fluctuate at a high level next week [43].

Company Overview - Ningbo KBE Electrical Technology Co., Ltd. is a company established from the transformation of a limited liability company into a joint-stock company, with its establishment date on March 5, 2004 [1][2] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of automotive cables, serving as a secondary supplier in the automotive supply chain [2][3] - The company has a total share capital of 134,951,140 shares and is listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange under the stock code 300863 [1][2] Business Operations - The main products include various types of automotive cables such as conventional cables, aluminum cables, twisted pair cables, shielded cables, new energy cables, and multi-core sheathed cables [2][3] - The company has obtained certifications from major automotive manufacturers and is recognized as a high-tech enterprise, holding 52 patents as of March 31, 2025 [2][3] Financial Performance - The total assets of the company for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 were 358,912.47 million, 374,696.60 million, and 281,635.52 million respectively [5] - The company reported operating revenues of 294,840.82 million in 2022, 345,193.07 million in 2023, and 364,801.63 million in 2024 [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 14,005.17 million in 2022, 16,594.46 million in 2023, and 16,165.45 million in 2024 [5] Market Position - The automotive wiring harness market is highly concentrated, with the top five companies holding approximately 60%-70% of the market share [11] - The company has established long-term stable supply relationships with major automotive wiring harness manufacturers, including Volkswagen, BMW, and Toyota [2][11] Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to high customer concentration, with over 60% of sales coming from the top five customers [11] - Fluctuations in copper prices can significantly impact the company's profit margins and working capital requirements [10][11] - The company must continuously innovate and adapt to meet the evolving technical requirements of automotive manufacturers [12][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term trend of electrolytic aluminum is a large - range oscillation. New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level oscillation market. The future week's fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract is expected to be between 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton, and short - term trading is recommended. Spot enterprises can consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventories at low prices [5][8]. - Domestically, supportive policies continue to be implemented, but the electrolytic aluminum production is approaching the bottleneck with limited incremental output this year. Overseas, there is high macro - uncertainty. The global primary aluminum production growth rate in 2025 is expected to be only 1.9%. The export of aluminum products in the second half of the year has great uncertainties [5][9]. - Affected by the off - season, aluminum processing enterprises generally have weak new orders, and the operating rate is under pressure. It is expected that the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing will continue to decline slightly next week [10][24][25]. - The aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. The price of the aluminum rod market next week is expected to oscillate between 20000 - 20800 yuan/ton [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The mid - term trend presents a large - range oscillation. Domestic supportive policies continue to be implemented, production is approaching the bottleneck with limited incremental output this year, but overseas macro - uncertainty is high. New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level oscillation market [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the future week was expected to be between 20300 - 20900 yuan/ton [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the future week is expected to be between 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton, and short - term trading is recommended. Spot enterprises can consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventories at low prices [8]. Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Bauxite Market**: In June, China's aluminum bauxite production decreased by 3.2% month - on - month and increased by 4.1% year - on - year. Recently, domestic production has declined due to inspections and is expected to recover after the inspections end. In July, the arrival of imported aluminum bauxite in China is expected to remain high, but the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to gradually emerge [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of July 3, China's alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, the operating capacity was 88.63 million tons, and the weekly national operating rate was 79.97%, a decrease of 0.31% from last week. In the second half of the year, both domestic and overseas supply and demand will be in an oversupply situation, but the degree of oversupply has narrowed compared with the first quarter [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of the end of June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.82 million tons, and the production in June increased by 1.57% year - on - year. The resumption of production in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places is nearing completion, and new production capacity is difficult to release due to environmental protection policies and energy consumption dual - control. Overseas production is limited by high energy costs, and the overall capacity utilization rate is high. The global primary aluminum production growth rate in 2025 is expected to be only 1.9% [9]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1350 yuan/ton. The export of aluminum products in the second half of the year has great uncertainties. It may maintain a certain resilience or even perform better than expected, but it may also face significant downward pressure [9]. - **Demand**: The national profile operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% this week. Affected by the off - season, aluminum processing enterprises generally have weak new orders and the operating rate is under pressure [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased by about 3% compared with the previous week and decreased by about 39% compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate next week. The inventory of aluminum rods increased by about 9% compared with last week and was about 9% higher than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased slightly in the past two weeks [10][14][15]. - **Profit**: Currently, the average cash cost of China's alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 500 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17400 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3300 yuan/ton, which is at a relatively high level [11]. - **Market Expectation**: Domestically, favorable policies continue to be strengthened, and the direction of promoting consumption remains unchanged. Overseas, the macro - situation is mixed with risks. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate at a high level in the short term, and the price of the aluminum rod market next week will oscillate between 20000 - 20800 yuan/ton [11]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of domestic aluminum ore remain stable, and the spot trading in the imported ore market is light. The price of动力煤is expected to remain strong in the short term. The spot price of alumina has increased slightly, and the price of the aluminum rod market next week is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3050 yuan/ton [12]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported aluminum bauxite has decreased slightly. The alumina inventory has remained relatively stable. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas is expected to continue to accumulate, and the inventory of aluminum rods has increased significantly. The LME aluminum inventory has continued to accumulate [14][15][16]. Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 500 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17400 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3300 yuan/ton [18]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week. Affected by factors such as high aluminum prices, insufficient profits, and weak downstream demand, it is expected that the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing will continue to decline slightly next week [24][25]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the market has low expectations for the upward space of the aluminum price in the second half of the year [29]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1260 yuan/ton, which is lower than last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [35][36]. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of the LME aluminum variety has continued to rise slightly in the past 8 weeks. The short - selling camp has reduced positions in the past month, and the long - buying camp has increased positions in the latest period. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝价预计短期区间震荡，关注宏观情绪、下游开工、宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况和消费释放情况 [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1.成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响建筑钢材总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [4] -成材在供需双弱格局下价格震荡下行创近期新低，今年冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2.铝锭 -海外市场担心美国政府赤字及贸易协议不确定性，国内利好政策促进消费 [3] -截至6月30日，氧化铝行业理论利润248元/吨，山西、河南部分产能理论已亏损，成本支撑将体现 [4] -6月铝加工行业PMI综合指数40.1%，跌至荣枯线以下，环比降9.7个百分点，同比降1.5% [4] -上周铝线缆龙头企业开工下降，国网订单匹配慢，采购节奏放缓 [4] -6月30日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存46.8万吨，较上周四增0.5万吨，环比上周一增0.4万吨 [4] -7月上旬国内铝锭库存预计稳中小增，关注到货和累库持续性 [4] -海外宏观不稳定，低库存支撑铝价但库存走势反复，几内亚雨季影响矿石价格，需求端淡季限制上行空间 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Alumina**: The supply - side impact of Guinea's cancellation of mining licenses is limited, with overseas ore supply strengthening and domestic bauxite supply becoming less tight. Demand growth is limited as the utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum capacity is over 96%. With low inventory providing some support at the bottom, alumina is expected to remain in a weak oscillating state in June, with a reference operating range of [2800 - 3400], and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [8]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is running at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate has exceeded 96%. Although downstream consumption has rebounded to some extent under policy stimulation, exports are still weak. With the continuous decline of social inventory to a six - year low, electrolytic aluminum is expected to oscillate in June, with a reference operating range of [19500 - 20300] [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Alumina**: Supply - side disturbances in Guinea have limited impact, overseas supply is strong, and demand growth is limited. Low inventory provides support, but overall, it will be in a weak oscillating state in June [8]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: High - level capacity operation, slow demand recovery, and extremely low inventory support prices, with an expected oscillating trend in June [8]. 3.2 Review of Market Performance - As of May 30, LME aluminum showed a strong oscillation, rising 2.24% compared to April. SHFE aluminum rebounded after hitting the bottom and then oscillated, rising 1.08% compared to April. Alumina first rose and then fell, rising 8.76% compared to April [12][16]. 3.3 Supply Situation of the Aluminum Industry Chain - **Domestic Bauxite**: In April, the output was 544000 tons, a decrease of 31000 tons from the previous month, remaining at a relatively low level in the past four years. It is expected to remain at an extremely low level [21]. - **Overseas Bauxite**: In April, the total bauxite shipment volume increased slightly compared to the previous month, with an increase of 124400 tons in shipments from Guinea to 822410 tons and a decrease of 66440 tons in shipments from Australia to 285560 tons [26]. - **Bauxite Imports**: In March, the import volume was 20.684 million tons, a significant increase of 4.2183 million tons from the previous month, remaining at the highest level in the past five years. It is expected to continue to rise [30]. - **Alumina Production**: In April, the production capacity utilization rates in major production areas mostly declined, and the output was 7.225 million tons, a decrease of 224000 tons from the previous month, but still at the highest level in the past six years [34]. - **Alumina Imports**: From April to mid - May, the import profit and loss was stable at around - 260 yuan/ton. The net import volume remained at a low level, and the net export state will continue [39]. - **Costs**: By May 23, the alumina production cost dropped to 2831.8 yuan/ton, and the profit was about 280 yuan/ton. In April, the electrolytic aluminum production cost was 14737 yuan/ton, and the profit was 3731 yuan/ton [43]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In April, the capacity utilization rate rose slightly to 96.73%, and the output was 3.6205 million tons, a slight decrease of 108300 tons from the previous month, but an increase of 3.21% year - on - year, remaining at the highest level in the past six years [48]. - **Aluminum Rod Production**: In April, the operating rate was 58.16%, remaining at an extremely high level in the past five years, and the output was 1.4885 million tons, remaining at the highest level in the past three years [53]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Trade**: In April, the net import volume was - 251600 tons, an increase of 17.46% year - on - year, maintaining the net export state [57]. 3.4 Downstream and Terminal Performance of the Aluminum Industry - **Downstream Operating Rates**: In April, affected by policies, the operating rates of various downstream sectors increased to varying degrees. The aluminum profile operating rate rose to 50.59%, the aluminum rod operating rate rose to 62%, and the aluminum plate, strip, and foil operating rate decreased slightly to 73.31% [62]. - **Aluminum Product Exports**: Due to domestic and overseas policies, the overall export of aluminum products slowed down. From January to April, the cumulative export volume of aluminum profiles was 267400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.15%; the cumulative export volume of aluminum cables was 82800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%; the cumulative export volume of aluminum plates and strips was 983000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.77%; and the cumulative export volume of aluminum foil was 457300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.55% [66][71]. - **Real Estate**: From January to April, the cumulative real - estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 23.8% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 16.9% year - on - year [76]. - **Automobiles**: In April, the production was 2.6188 million vehicles, the sales were 2.5896 million vehicles, and the production - to - sales ratio was 0.9889, a slight increase from March [80]. - **White Goods**: From January to April, the cumulative refrigerator production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year, the cumulative washing machine production increased by 10.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative air - conditioner production increased by 7.2% year - on - year [84]. 3.5 Aluminum Industry Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of May 23, the port inventory was 25.46 million tons, an increase of 88000 tons compared to April, rising to a relatively low level in the past five years [89]. - **Alumina**: As of May 30, the inventory was 3.794 million tons, a decrease of 5.01% compared to April, remaining at the lowest level in the past four years [93]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of May 30, the social inventory was 51900 tons, a decrease of 14500 tons compared to the end of April, at the lowest level in the past six years [97]. - **Exchange Inventories**: As of May 30, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 17445 tons compared to April, and the LME inventory decreased by 43050 tons compared to April, both at the lowest levels in the past six years [102].