从半年报的已知表现来看，2025年上半年上市银行净息差约为1.33%，同比下降13个基点，虽仍处 下行通道，但降幅较去年同期（19个基点）有所收窄。 如何让息差下行坡度不要那么陡峭，平缓一点、降速慢一点，是各家银行在业绩发布会上一定会被问到的 问题。从全行业经营层面看，银行净息差收窄已是既定的、结构性趋势，主要受政策引导让利实体经济、 经济增速、LPR多次下调、存量房贷利率重定价等多重因素作用影响。 截至6月末，招商银行净息差为1.88%，较行业平均水平1.42%领先40多个基点。其副行长、首席财务官 彭家文对该行下半年净息差走势态度乐观，认为较上半年降幅会收窄，而这与该行负债、资产结构有关。 彭家文的理由是：一方面，该行活期存款占比超过50%，意味着可压降空间更小；另一方面，一直对高成 本存款严格控制，因此占比较低，意味着活期存款、高成本存款的可压降空间较小。另外，该行零售业务 占比一直在50%以上，零售业务收益较高，如果需求不足，对贷款收益的影响也更大。 彭家文还进一步表示，从趋势来看，息差虽然承压，但有利趋势同样存在：如经济增长的确定性在增强， 会对信贷需求带来支撑；提振消费措施，对接下来的信用卡消费贷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in deposit rates, coupled with the concentration of fixed deposits maturing, is expected to significantly improve the cost of liabilities for banks [1][8]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - Recent reports indicate a trend of residents moving deposits from banks to other financial products such as funds and wealth management products [2][3]. - As of mid-2025, the total personal deposit balance of 13 major commercial banks reached 112.07 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.9 trillion yuan year-on-year [4][5]. - The average cost of deposits for these banks in the first half of 2025 was 1.61%, a decrease of 34 basis points compared to the same period in 2024 [12]. Group 2: Wealth Management Business Growth - The shift of deposits to wealth management products has led to significant growth in banks' wealth management income, with Agricultural Bank's wealth management income increasing by 62.3% [6]. - The total scale of bank wealth management products reached 30.67 trillion yuan by the end of June, with an estimated increase of about 2 trillion yuan by the end of July [6]. Group 3: Interest Margin and Cost of Liabilities - Despite the reduction in deposit costs, banks are still facing pressure on net interest margins, which have decreased to 1.42% as of the second quarter of 2025 [15][16]. - The average net interest margin for the 13 banks was 1.5%, down from 1.62% year-on-year [15]. - The decline in net interest margins is attributed to factors such as the reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and adjustments in existing mortgage rates [17][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the concentration of maturing fixed deposits will lead to a significant reduction in the cost of liabilities for banks in the coming years, with expected decreases of 17 to 24 basis points across different types of banks [11]. - The trend of increasing fixed deposits is expected to continue, with the proportion of fixed deposits among total deposits rising to approximately 59.7% in the first half of 2025 [9][10].

Group 1 - Major banks including the four state-owned banks and China Merchants Bank are set to announce their interim results on August 29 [1] - Brokerages are primarily focused on the impact of the expected continued narrowing of net interest margins in Q2 on net interest income [1] - The injection of capital into banks by the "national team" in the first half of the year is anticipated to influence the profitability and dividend outlook for banks in the second half of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous narrowing of net interest margins (NIM) in China's commercial banks is significantly impacting their profitability, driven by factors such as declining market interest rates, intensified competition, and insufficient credit demand [1][2]. Summary by Sections Net Interest Margin Trends - China's commercial banks' NIM has decreased to 1.43% in Q1 2025, down 9 basis points from 1.52% at the end of Q4 2024. Different types of banks show varying NIM performance, with private banks and rural commercial banks facing the most pressure [2][3]. - The overall NIM for listed banks fell by 13 basis points year-on-year to 1.43%, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6 basis points [2]. Causes of NIM Decline - The decline in NIM is attributed to lower yields on loans and bond investments on the asset side, and a trend towards longer-term deposits on the liability side, which increases costs [3][4]. - Forecasts suggest that NIM will continue to face downward pressure in 2025, but the negative impact on income and net profit growth is expected to gradually diminish [3]. Challenges for Small and Medium Banks - Small and medium banks are facing the greatest challenges in the current low NIM and low-interest-rate environment, with issues related to profitability and competition from larger banks [4][5]. - Strategies for these banks include focusing on localized and differentiated development, digital transformation, and optimizing asset-liability management [4][5]. Strategies for Improvement - Small banks are advised to enhance their asset-liability management, increase the proportion of medium- to long-term assets, and implement differentiated pricing models for loans [4][5]. - Initiatives such as dynamic monitoring of deposit interest rates and targeted marketing strategies are being employed to improve customer acquisition and retention [5][6]. - The shift towards digitalization and innovative product offerings is seen as a crucial step for banks to find new growth opportunities amidst the challenges posed by low NIM [5][6].

今天傍晚，四大行和招行，都陆续公布了一季报，从各个维度看，坦率来说，这应该都是四大行史上最差的一季报了：工行和建行一季度净利润 增速都是-3.99%，历史最低；中行是-2.9%，和去年一季度并列史低；农行一季度净利润倒是增长了2.2%，但后面会讲到，其实都是非常规业务 导致的。 今天港股的四大行，早上冲高后，纷纷跳水，工行和建行日内跌幅都在2个点附近。 下图 ，我自己做了一个表，把五家银行的一季报，喂给了Deepseek，让它整理了一下，部分数据如果有误，都是deepseek的锅。 | 银行名称 | 营收同比 | 李度净利 | 净利润同 | 净利息收入 | 非利息收入 | 非利息收入中: | 非利息收入中:公分 价值变动绝对值(债 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 润(亿) | 比 | 同比 | 合计同比 | 净手续费及佣金 收入同比 | 券和基金投资收益 | | | | | | | | | 等) | | 工商银行 | -3.22% | 847.09 | -3.99% | -2.86% | -4.20% | -1.18% | - ...