中信证券研报称，根据我们测算，2025年7月末，银行理财规模环比超预期增长约2万亿元至32.67万亿 元，主要缘于三年期高利率存款集中到期引发的存款再配置，以及存款利率降幅快于理财收益率降幅， 抬升了理财产品的相对吸引力。非银存款高增与理财规模增长有较大关系，由于增量资金多为现金理财 和短期固收产品，配置存款的规模较大，预计至少在8000亿以上。结构上，现金类贡献较低，"固收 +"成为黑马，映射市场风险偏好提升。8月理财规模有望突破33万亿，预计全年理财规模有望达到33.5 万亿元以上。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The bank wealth management market experienced steady growth in the first half of 2025, with a total scale of 30.67 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.53%. The scale of wealth management companies reached 27.48 trillion yuan, up 12.98% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to the migration of funds due to low deposit interest rates, indicating potential for continued stable expansion [6][14] - The structure of wealth management products shows that fixed-income products account for 97.20% of the total scale, with a slight decrease of 0.13 percentage points since the beginning of the year. This decline is expected to be related to bond market volatility and improved conditions in the equity market [6][16] - In terms of asset allocation, there has been an increase in cash and deposit assets as well as public funds, while allocations to bonds and interbank certificates of deposit have decreased. Specifically, the allocation ratios for bonds, interbank certificates, and equity assets have decreased by 1.7%, 0.6%, and 0.5% to 41.8%, 13.8%, and 2.4%, respectively [6][20] Wealth Management Product Yield - The yield of cash management wealth management products has continued to decline, with a 7-day annualized yield of 1.44% in July, down 6 basis points from the previous month and 40 basis points from December of the previous year. In comparison, the yield of money market funds was 1.25%, down 9 basis points month-on-month and 31 basis points year-on-year [8][24] - The average annualized yield for short-term pure fixed-income wealth management products was 2.15%, up 0.03 percentage points from the previous month, while the yields for medium-term and long-term products decreased [9][27] - The overall break-even rate for fixed-income + wealth management products increased to approximately 2.4% in July, indicating a rise from the previous month, although the number of deeply discounted products remains low [10][35] Market Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of 13.49% and an absolute return of 25.64%, indicating strong performance compared to the market benchmark [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese banking wealth management market is experiencing significant growth, with the total scale exceeding 31 trillion yuan as of May 20, reflecting a transformation in banking operations amid a low-interest-rate environment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - As of May 20, the wealth management market's total scale has surpassed 31 trillion yuan, marking an increase of approximately 1.6 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [1]. - The bond market's declining interest rates have contributed to the recovery of wealth management product yields, with average annualized yields for open-ended fixed-income products rising to 3.21% in April, an increase of 1.41 percentage points [1]. - The trend of "deposit migration" has been observed, with wealth management scale growing by over 2 trillion yuan in April alone, driven by lower deposit rates [2]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rates - The reduction in deposit rates has led to a significant interest rate differential between savings and wealth management products, prompting investors to shift funds towards the latter [2]. - Major banks have initiated a new round of deposit rate cuts, with one-year fixed deposit rates generally falling below 1.35% [2]. - Wealth management products are increasingly offering stable returns through investments in high-yield credit bonds and non-standard assets, appealing to investors seeking better returns [2]. Group 3: Product Innovation and Sales Strategies - Banks are actively adjusting product structures and sales strategies in response to declining deposit rates, focusing on closed-end and periodically open products to secure long-term funds [2]. - The promotion of net value-type and short-duration wealth management products has been intensified, enhancing liquidity and meeting diverse customer needs [3]. - The expansion of sales channels through partnerships with other banks and internet platforms has effectively captured funds flowing out of the deposit market [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue growing, with predictions that the wealth management scale may exceed 32 trillion yuan by the end of the year, driven by further reductions in deposit rates and improved investor expectations [4]. - The differentiation within the wealth management market is anticipated to intensify, with net value-type products and diversified asset allocation becoming core competitive advantages [4]. - Financial institutions are expected to innovate and enhance services to meet the growing demand for wealth management products, leading to a richer variety of offerings [4].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous growth of bank wealth management products is driven by the recent decrease in deposit interest rates, which has created short-term benefits while posing long-term challenges for the industry [1][4]. Group 1: Wealth Management Scale Growth - As of May 20, the total scale of bank wealth management products reached 31.28 trillion yuan, following a peak of 31.1 trillion yuan at the end of April [1]. - The decline in deposit interest rates has lowered the short-term funding costs for bank wealth management, leading to increased attractiveness of fixed-income products [2][4]. - The rapid growth of short-term wealth management products is evident, with daily open products reaching approximately 11.3 trillion yuan and products with a maturity of one month or less growing by over 800 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The decrease in deposit rates is identified as the primary short-term driver for the growth of wealth management scales, alongside seasonal patterns and the overall stability of the capital market [4]. - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market and the stabilization of the bond market have contributed to the continuous rise in bank wealth management scales [4]. - Investors are advised to diversify their asset allocation and consider short-term cash management products and fixed-income products for liquidity management [3]. Group 3: Product Strategy and Future Outlook - Many banks are focusing on "equity-linked" products as a key area for future development, with a significant increase in the issuance of such products compared to the previous year [5]. - The trend of "fixed income plus" products is gaining traction, as clients seek higher returns amid declining market interest rates [5]. - Experts suggest that while low-risk fixed-income products are currently favored, there is a strategic opportunity to increase equity asset allocation in the long term [5].

Group 1 - Major commercial banks have initiated a new round of deposit rate cuts, leading to a renewed focus on bank wealth management products [1] - As of May 20, the total scale of bank wealth management products reached 31.28 trillion yuan, continuing the growth trend from April [1] - Bank wealth management is increasingly seen as an attractive alternative to deposits, with expectations for continued growth in scale [1] Group 2 - Many banks and wealth management subsidiaries are launching short-term high-yield products to attract investors, including fee reductions and new product offerings [2] - For example, Bank of China reduced the service fee for a specific wealth management product from 0.30% to 0.10% annually [2] - Huaxia Wealth Management also introduced a temporary fee reduction for its cash management products, lowering the rate to 0.10% per year [2] Group 3 - Short-term high-yield wealth management products are gaining popularity due to their strong liquidity and relatively controllable risks, aligning with investors' needs for flexibility [3] - Some products have reported annualized returns of up to 5.04%, with a focus on short holding periods [3] - Investors are advised to balance liquidity and returns while paying attention to the stability of underlying assets [3] Group 4 - The decline in deposit rates is identified as a key short-term driver for the growth of wealth management scales, as residents seek to increase investment returns [4] - April is traditionally a strong month for wealth management growth, influenced by seasonal patterns and banks' quarterly assessments [4] - The current market environment, characterized by a "dual bull" market in stocks and bonds, has also contributed to the continuous rise in wealth management scales [4] Group 5 - The top three institutions in wealth management scale as of the end of April are 招银理财, 兴银理财, and 信银理财, with expectations for the scale to reach 33 trillion yuan this year [5] - The new round of deposit rate cuts is expected to help banks control interest costs while increasing the difficulty of attracting deposits [5] Group 6 - There is a growing interest in "fixed income plus" strategies that incorporate a small amount of equity assets, reflecting a shift in investor preferences [6] - Wealth management subsidiaries are launching products focused on Hong Kong stocks, with a mix of equity and fixed income [7] - The overall proportion of equity assets in wealth management products is expected to remain low, with a focus on maintaining stable returns [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after the recent reduction in deposit rates by major commercial banks, bank wealth management products have regained market attention, with the total scale reaching a historical high of 31 trillion yuan in April [1][2] - The growth in bank wealth management scale is driven by three main factors: the "seesaw" effect between stocks and bonds, the migration of funds from maturing fixed deposits to wealth management products, and increased marketing efforts by banks in the second quarter [1][2] - The weighted average annualized yield of bank wealth management products in April was 2.70%, with cash management products yielding 1.50%, pure bond products yielding 3.34%, and "fixed income +" products yielding 3.01% [1] Group 2 - As of May 20, the total scale of bank wealth management products continued to expand, reaching 31.28 trillion yuan, with expectations for further growth due to the recent reduction in deposit rates [2] - The decline in deposit rates is seen as the most significant short-term driver for the growth of wealth management products, with lower interest rates enhancing the attractiveness of these products compared to traditional deposits [2] - Despite the current growth, challenges are anticipated for the overall annual growth of bank wealth management products due to low credit bond yields and potential net asset value fluctuations [2] Group 3 - Bank wealth management subsidiaries are encouraged to enhance their asset allocation capabilities, focusing on bond investments and diversifying into multi-asset strategies [3] - To improve bond investment capabilities, wealth management subsidiaries should explore credit research, quantitative investment, and utilize government bond futures for hedging or arbitrage [3] - There is a need for building a comprehensive multi-asset allocation capability, including developing diverse asset research capabilities and establishing a collaborative investment team for new product and strategy development [3]