美联储在2026年面临六大关键挑战，从独立性到货币政策框架改革，这些问题将深刻影响全球金融市场 走向和投资者预期。 市场对下任美联储主席的关注持续升温，但这只是美联储今年面临的诸多挑战之一。政治干预、利率调 整空间、资产负债表规模、银行监管改革、稳定币监管以及货币政策框架等六大议题，都将考验这家全 球最具影响力央行的决策能力。 这些议题具有系统性影响。若政治压力侵蚀市场对美联储抗通胀承诺的信心，可能引发严重的预期脱锚 与波动；同时，美联储在利率政策、资产负债表管理等技术性问题上的选择，也将直接影响市场波动性 和金融稳定。 美联储主席鲍威尔此前表示，经过去年三次25个基点的降息后，货币政策现已处于"中性利率的合理估 计区间内"。然而，新任主席如何在政治压力下保持决策独立性，并在多重挑战中推进协调一致的政策 与监管改革，将成为贯穿全年的核心观察主线。 政治独立性面临考验 特朗普试图影响利率走向的举动，正对美联储的独立性构成实质威胁。即使下任美联储主席愿意按照特 朗普的偏好进一步降息，这一政策路径也远非确定。主席必须获得联邦公开市场委员会支持，否则将面 临信誉受损与市场沟通失效的风险。事实上，在FOMC成员、美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - PNC Financial Services has received regulatory approval for its $4.1 billion acquisition of FirstBank, marking a significant step in expanding its operations in the Rocky Mountain region and Southwest [2][3][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition has been approved by the Federal Reserve System, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), and the Colorado Division of Banking [2]. - PNC anticipates closing the transaction around January 5, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions, with full customer integration expected by mid-next year [3]. - FirstBank is recognized as one of the largest privately held lenders in the U.S., and this acquisition will enhance PNC's scale in Colorado and Arizona [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - PNC's CEO highlighted that recent efforts by federal banking regulators to reduce regulatory burdens will significantly benefit banks, potentially saving "hundreds and hundreds" of full-time equivalents (FTEs) [4][5]. - The OCC plans to continue regulatory reforms in 2026, focusing on liquidity risk management and compliance with the Bank Secrecy Act/anti-money laundering regulations [6]. - These reforms are seen as a necessary step to address regulatory policies established after the 2008 financial crisis that have impacted effective supervision of the banking system [7].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chair for Bank Supervision, Michelle Bowman, announced plans to restructure the agency's supervision and examination department, reducing its staff by approximately 30% [1] - The overall size of the Supervision and Regulation (S&R) department is expected to shrink to about 350 employees from nearly 500, with the target completion date set for the end of 2026 [1] - This restructuring aligns with Bowman's and other U.S. regulators' efforts to relax a series of bank capital regulations and refocus bank supervision [1][2] Summary by Sections Restructuring Plans - Bowman's internal meeting indicated that the staff reduction will primarily occur through natural attrition, retirements, and voluntary departure incentives [1] - The restructuring is part of a broader goal for the Federal Reserve to reduce its overall workforce by about 10% in the coming years [1] Regulatory Focus - Bowman emphasized that the department's employees should concentrate on "substantive risks" to banks rather than being distracted by procedural matters that do not materially affect bank safety and soundness [1] - Other requirements include relying on the primary federal regulators' examination work to avoid unnecessary duplication of oversight [1] Regulatory Changes - Since taking office in June, Bowman has been recognized for her efforts to reduce regulations and adjust regulatory approaches, including weakening several Biden-era regulatory measures [2] - A revised proposal presented by the Federal Reserve to other U.S. regulators estimates that the new plan will lower the overall capital increase for most large banks to between 3% and 7%, significantly below the 19% increase proposed in 2023 [2] - The Federal Reserve also plans to reform bank stress tests, allowing Wall Street to have advance knowledge of standards and provide feedback [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss government has initiated a formal consultation regarding a significant banking regulation overhaul, allowing UBS seven years to fully capitalize its foreign units [1] Group 1 - The Swiss government is proposing a larger banking regulation overhaul [1] - UBS will have a seven-year period to capitalize on its foreign units [1]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve is holding a meeting to discuss comprehensive reforms to banking regulations [1] - The meeting includes discussions among regulators, bankers, industry lawyers, and other experts regarding the stricter banking rules implemented after the 2008 financial crisis [1] - Potential outcomes of the meeting could lead to significant capital cost savings for large banks, allowing them to engage in more lending and other activities [1] - Skeptics warn that these changes may reduce banks' resilience to future shocks [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need for effective collaboration among different parts of the capital framework to maintain a safe and sound banking system [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is seeking feedback on proposed reforms to its regulatory framework for large banks, which aims to make it easier for these institutions to be classified as "well-managed" and thus less subject to operational restrictions [1] Group 1 - The proposed reforms will adjust the regulatory framework for large banks [1] - The changes are intended to facilitate a classification of "well-managed" for large banks [1] - The reforms will potentially reduce operational restrictions on large banks [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is exerting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, suggesting a one percentage point cut, while also hinting at potential changes in leadership at the Fed [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - Trump announced that the appointment of the next Federal Reserve chairman will be revealed soon, indicating he has a candidate in mind who is well-respected [2]. - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, is considered a strong candidate for the next chairman, as he has publicly supported Trump's criticisms of the Fed [2][3]. - There are concerns that Trump's intervention in the Fed's leadership could undermine the independence of the institution, affecting future monetary policy effectiveness [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - Trump criticized current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, labeling him as a disaster and urging for a significant reduction in interest rates, claiming that the U.S. has not followed Europe in making necessary cuts [4]. - The Fed has maintained the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50% for three consecutive meetings, with officials expressing concerns over economic uncertainties stemming from Trump's policies [5]. - Recent employment data indicates a slowdown in job growth, which may influence the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates [4][5]. Group 3: Regulatory Changes - Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision, Randal Quarles, is advocating for a comprehensive review and relaxation of banking regulations, arguing that many rules have become overly burdensome [6][7]. - The Fed plans to reassess regulations for large banks, aiming to allow for "orderly failures" without threatening the stability of the banking system [6]. - Quarles emphasized the need for a more sensible approach to bank ratings, focusing on significant risks rather than subjective judgments [7].