固定收益 | 固定收益定期 可转债周报 20250824 证券研究报告 临期转债"百态" 转债周度专题 截至 8 月 22 日，2025 年内共有 82 只转债退市，其中 20 只为到期退市， 6 只到期退市转债的实际到期兑付比例低于 1%，3 只到期兑付比例高于 90% （核建转债、好客转债、智能转债），其余到期兑付比例集中在 20%-60%。 年内已到期退市转债的促转股与到期兑付之路存在差异：中信转债发行金 额 400 亿元，但最终兑付比例不足 1%，其促转股之路较为丰富：第一，控 股股东率先将转债溢价转股。第二，正股阶段性"异动"，负溢价率转股。 2024 年 12 月开始，银行股持续上行，中信转债的转股价值明显高于到期 价值，叠加银行发行转债补充一级核心资本的目标导向，转债转股节奏加 快。民企转债多数（11/18）在存续期曾下修过转股价，如好客转债、合兴 转债在到期前半年左右均提议下修过转股价，但下修均未实现有效促转股。 截至 8 月 22 日，年内即将到期转债还有 14 只。规模较高的如金能转债、 浦发转债、海亮转债、烽火转债、鹰 19 转债、建工转债等。金能转债 8 月 12 日刚下修过转股价，公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of bank stocks has led to multiple bank convertible bonds triggering mandatory redemption clauses, resulting in a reduction of available convertible bonds in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bank Convertible Bonds - Qilu Bank's convertible bond (Qilu Convertible Bond) will have its last trading day on August 8, with mandatory redemption occurring on August 14, following a significant rise in the bank's stock price [2]. - This year, five bank convertible bonds have triggered mandatory redemption clauses, with four already delisted [3]. - The Qilu Convertible Bond was originally set to mature in 2028 but was redeemed early due to the stock price exceeding 130% of the conversion price for 15 trading days [2][3]. Group 2: Stock Performance - As of August 7, Qilu Bank's stock price has increased by nearly 16% this year, contributing to the bond's early redemption [2]. - The Shenwan Primary Bank Index has risen over 14% this year, with several banks, including Pudong Development Bank and Agricultural Bank, seeing stock price increases of 30% or more [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The supply of bank convertible bonds is decreasing, which is changing market dynamics and triggering a search for alternative investments among institutional investors [4]. - Analysts suggest that the advantages of bank convertible bonds, such as easier issuance and lower financing costs, make them important tools for capital replenishment in the banking sector [3].

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of bank stocks has led to multiple bank convertible bonds triggering mandatory redemption clauses, resulting in a reduction of available convertible bonds in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Convertible Bonds and Redemption - Qilu Bank announced that August 8 is the last trading day for Qilu convertible bonds, with mandatory redemption occurring on August 14 [1]. - This year, four bank convertible bonds have already been delisted due to triggering strong redemption clauses, with Qilu and Pudong Development Bank bonds set to exit the market soon [1][2]. - As of August 7, Qilu convertible bonds were trading at 123.69 yuan, with an unconverted balance of 453 million yuan, representing 5.67% of the total [2]. Group 2: Bank Performance and Market Trends - Qilu Bank reported a 5.76% year-on-year increase in operating income for the first half of 2025, totaling 6.782 billion yuan, and a 16.48% increase in net profit, amounting to 2.734 billion yuan [2]. - The banking sector has seen significant stock price increases, with the Shenwan first-level bank index rising over 14% this year, and several banks, including Pudong Development Bank and Qingdao Bank, experiencing gains of nearly 40% and over 36%, respectively [2]. - The supply of bank convertible bonds is decreasing, which is changing market dynamics and prompting institutional investors to seek alternative assets to fill the gap left by reduced convertible bond allocations [3].

Group 1 - The A-share market is strengthening, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, leading to a rise in the convertible bond market, which is experiencing a wave of forced redemptions and delistings [1][2] - It is anticipated that the scale of the convertible bond market may gradually shrink to below 600 billion yuan in the second half of the year due to a lack of new issuance and increased forced redemptions [1][6] - The recent trend shows that over 50 convertible bonds have been delisted this year, with more than 80% exiting through forced redemption, indicating a significant increase compared to previous years [3][4] Group 2 - The recent tightening of refinancing policies has led to a prolonged review period for convertible bond issuances, resulting in a notable decline in new supply [5][8] - The banking sector is a major contributor to the decline in convertible bonds, with at least six bank bonds exiting the market this year, primarily through forced redemptions [6][7] - The total outstanding amount of convertible bonds has decreased from nearly 300 billion yuan to below 150 billion yuan, with the market share dropping from 40% to about 20% [7][8] Group 3 - The market for convertible bonds is expected to continue to shrink due to the scarcity of new issuances and the ongoing trend of forced redemptions, with estimates suggesting that the total market balance may fall below 600 billion yuan by year-end [6][8] - The performance of the convertible bond market is closely linked to the A-share market, with a strong correlation observed between market conditions and the exit of convertible bonds [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, the scale of fixed - income plus funds continued to grow, and the inflow of funds was expected to continue due to the bond market under - allocation and the upward movement of equities. Convertible bond funds and fixed - income plus funds still had strong support [4][6]. - Brokers significantly increased their positions in convertible bonds, while public funds and insurance funds actively reduced their positions on the whole. The behavior of brokers was different from that of public funds and insurance funds, with brokers more likely to increase positions in a bull market and the latter reducing positions when the convertible bond valuation was high [10][12]. - Public funds continued to reduce their positions in bank convertible bonds and sought bottom - position substitutes. Other convertible bonds in the financial sector and those in the public utilities sector received certain increases in positions [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Growth of Fixed - Income Plus Fund Shares with Market Support - In Q2 2025, fixed - income plus funds had a net subscription of 56.41 billion shares. Among them, first - tier bond funds had a net subscription of 52.548 billion shares, second - tier bond funds had a net subscription of 7.774 billion shares, and partial - debt hybrid funds had a net redemption of 3.68 billion shares, with the net redemption volume further decreasing compared to Q1 2025. Convertible bond funds had a net redemption of 2.164 billion shares, slightly higher than that in Q1 2025 but with relatively low net redemption pressure compared to Q4 2024 [4][6]. - In Q2 2025, the positions of convertible bond funds and fixed - income plus funds in equity - related assets decreased slightly. The reasons might include the tariff event in early April, profit - taking in May and June, and the reduction in the scope of investable targets in the convertible bond market [8]. 3.2. Public Funds and Insurance Funds Reduce Positions Marginally, while Brokers Increase Positions in Convertible Bonds - Brokers significantly increased their positions in convertible bonds in February, March, May, and June 2025, while public funds and insurance funds actively reduced their positions when the convertible bond valuation was high. With the convertible bond market hitting a new high and the equity market at a relatively high level, there was a need to be cautious about possible valuation drops [10][12]. - From January to June 2025, the positions of funds, insurance, and social security in convertible bonds decreased, while those of brokers' self - operation and asset management increased. The positions of convertible bond ETFs had net outflows in April and May and recovered significantly after late June [12][13][15]. 3.3. Analysis of Public Fund Holdings - In terms of industry distribution, public funds continued to reduce their positions in bank convertible bonds in Q2 2025 due to the forced redemption of Nanyin Convertible Bond, Hangyin Convertible Bond, Qilu Convertible Bond, and the approaching maturity of Pufa Convertible Bond. Other convertible bonds in the financial sector and those in the public utilities sector received certain increases in positions [19]. - Public funds increased their positions in some high - elasticity varieties such as those in the electronics, computer, communication, pharmaceutical, and food and beverage sectors, which might benefit from the structural market of technology, medicine, and consumption sectors. The positions in convertible bonds of the basic chemical and building materials industries also increased [21]. - In addition to financial bottom - position convertible bonds such as bank convertible bonds, public funds increased their positions in high - prosperity and high - elasticity targets such as Outong Convertible Bond, Wentai Convertible Bond, Shenma Convertible Bond, and Hengbang Convertible Bond [26].

Group 1 - Recently, SPDB announced that Cinda Investment increased its holdings of the bank's convertible bonds by approximately 118 million shares, accounting for 23.57% of the total issuance, and completed the conversion in just three days, attracting significant market attention [1] - Similar actions occurred in 2023 when China Huarong significantly increased its stake in Everbright Bank, indicating a trend of asset management companies (AMCs) actively investing in commercial banks [1] - The regulatory requirement for AMCs to "return to their main business" has led to contradictory behaviors, such as China Huarong exiting its stake in Huarong Xiangjiang Bank and Cinda Asset putting its stake in Changjiang Huaxi Bank up for sale [1] Group 2 - Commercial banks urgently need the "rescue" from AMCs; for instance, SPDB's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 8.38% as of the end of Q1 this year, down from the previous year, and its convertible bonds are due for redemption in October [2] - Prior to Cinda's intervention, the conversion rate of SPDB's convertible bonds was only 0.01%, similar to the situation faced by Everbright Bank [2] Group 3 - AMCs can alleviate performance pressure by increasing their holdings in bank stocks, as Cinda Asset's net profit has decreased from 13.2 billion yuan in 2020 to 3 billion yuan in 2024, while bank stocks have shown strong performance and increasing dividend levels [3] - For example, SPDB's cash dividend ratio for 2024 is 30.16%, up by 0.11 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a stable income source for AMCs [3] Group 4 - The collaboration between AMCs and banks in the disposal of non-performing assets is strengthened by recent regulatory support, allowing banks to transfer eligible risk assets to AMCs [4] - In 2023, SPDB disposed of non-performing assets worth 108.7 billion yuan, marking a historical high, which aligns with the needs of both parties [4] Group 5 - The significant investment by AMCs in commercial banks reflects a broader policy intent from the central government to maintain stability in the banking system, with AMC executives taking board positions in these banks [5] - This strategic move not only provides capital support to banks but also offers AMCs a stable income and new avenues for business collaboration, indicating a deeper partnership in managing financial risks [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In Q2 2025, the convertible bond market generally followed the trend of the equity market, with the convertible bond index rising. However, the scale of convertible bonds held by funds decreased, and the convertible bonds of the banking industry were significantly reduced. Different types of funds showed different trends in holding convertible bonds, and the performance of convertible bond funds was stronger than that of the Wind All - A Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index [2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Q2 Market Review - Most major market indices rose, except for the Shenzhen Component Index. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.3%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.2%, the Wind All - A Index rose 3.0%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 3.3%. The convertible bond market generally followed the trend of the equity market, and the conversion premium rate decreased from 46.58% on April 1 to 44.09% on June 30 [2][14]. 3.2 Fund Holding Convertible Bond Behavior Analysis 3.2.1 Fund Holding Convertible Bond Total Scale Change - As of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of the convertible bond market was 660.618 billion yuan, a decrease of 40.389 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter. The scale of convertible bonds held by funds was 272.825 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.457 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 3.35%. The proportion of the market value of convertible bonds held by funds to the balance of the convertible bond market was 41.30%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points compared with Q1 2025 [16][17]. 3.2.2 Various Types of Funds Holding Convertible Bond Scale Change - In Q2 2025, the secondary hybrid bond funds held the largest scale of convertible bonds, with a market value of 8.5867 billion yuan, followed by the primary hybrid bond funds with a market value of 7.2656 billion yuan. The secondary hybrid bond funds reduced their holdings of convertible bonds by 8.14 billion yuan, while the primary hybrid bond funds increased their holdings by 6.05 billion yuan [23][29]. 3.2.3 Fund Positioning Behavior Analysis - **Industry Distribution**: The convertible bonds of the banking sector were still the main allocation direction of funds. In Q2 2025, the top five industries with the largest scale of convertible bonds held by funds were banking, power equipment, basic chemicals, electronics, and non - ferrous metals. The convertible bonds of the banking industry were significantly reduced by over 14 billion yuan, while those of basic chemicals, non - banking finance, electronics, automotive, and pharmaceutical biology industries were increased by over 500 million yuan [37][40]. - **Individual Bond Distribution**: At the end of Q2 2025, among the top 5 convertible bonds held by funds, 4 were bank - related convertible bonds. The Bank of Shanghai Convertible Bond was the individual bond with the largest increase in holdings, followed by the Hebang Convertible Bond [45][47]. - **Rating Situation**: Among the convertible bonds held by funds, the proportion of AA - rated convertible bonds was relatively high, with 143 bonds, accounting for 30.82% [53]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Fund Holding Convertible Bond Behavior Analysis 3.3.1 Convertible Bond Fund Scale Change - As of the end of Q2 2025, there were 38 convertible bond funds in existence, holding a scale of 40.229 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.201 billion yuan from the previous quarter [56]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bond Fund Positioning Behavior Analysis - **Industry Distribution**: Convertible bond funds held the largest market value of bank - related convertible bonds, with a scale of 6.917 billion yuan. The convertible bonds of the non - banking finance industry were increased by 413 million yuan, while those of the banking industry were reduced by 1.583 billion yuan [57][59]. - **Performance**: In Q2 2025, the average return rate of convertible bond funds was 3.50%, the median return rate was 3.43%, and the average return rate of the top 10 convertible bond funds was 4.98%. The performance of convertible bond funds was stronger than that of the Wind All - A Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 25Q2, the scale of convertible bonds held by public - offering funds accounted for 42.44% of the total market value of convertible bonds, with a slight decrease in positions. The convertible bond market showed a net outflow trend due to large - scale bond delistings and an increase in forced redemptions [2][12]. - The market value and proportion of convertible bonds held by first - tier bond funds increased, while those of second - tier bond funds, other funds, partial - debt hybrid funds, and flexible allocation funds decreased [2][13]. - The market value of convertible bonds held by convertible bond funds decreased by 3.42% quarter - on - quarter, but the convertible bond position and leverage ratio increased slightly. The average return of convertible bond funds in 25Q2 was slightly lower than the CSI Convertible Bond Index [4][23][29]. - Public - offering funds significantly increased their positions in industries such as social services, non - bank finance, beauty care, food and beverage, and basic chemicals, and reduced their positions in industries such as steel, banks, and household appliances [6][35]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Public - Offering Fund Convertible Bond Holdings - In 25Q2, the balance of the convertible bond market was 642.481 billion yuan, a 7.16% decrease from 25Q1. Public - offering funds held convertible bonds worth 272.661 billion yuan, accounting for 42.44% of the total market value of convertible bonds, a 1.65 - percentage - point increase from 25Q1. The position of public - offering funds in convertible bonds was 0.73%, a 0.09 - percentage - point decrease from 25Q1 [2][12]. - First - tier bond funds increased their holdings of convertible bonds by 6517 million yuan (+3.56%), while second - tier bond funds decreased their holdings by 7933 million yuan (-1.06%), other funds by 1991 million yuan (-0.55%), partial - debt hybrid funds by 1969 million yuan (-0.38%), flexible allocation funds by 1215 million yuan (-0.29%), and convertible bond funds by 3022 million yuan (+0.57%) [2][13]. - As of 25Q2, there were 60 public - offering funds (excluding convertible bond funds) with a convertible bond market value of over 1 billion yuan, with a total market value of 170.987 billion yuan, a 3.41% decrease from 25Q1, accounting for 62.71% of the market value of public - offering funds investing in convertible bonds. There were 311 public - offering funds (excluding convertible bond funds) with a convertible bond market value of over 100 million yuan, with a total market value of 249.435 billion yuan, a 3.30% decrease from 25Q1, accounting for 91.48% of the market value of public - offering funds investing in convertible bonds [3][18]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Fund Convertible Bond Holdings - As of 25Q2, there were 40 convertible bond funds, holding convertible bonds worth 8.5233 billion yuan, a decrease of 302.2 million yuan from 2025Q1, a 3.42% quarter - on - quarter decrease [4][23]. - The convertible bond position of convertible bond funds increased from 84.49% in 25Q1 to 84.99%, a 0.50 - percentage - point increase. The leverage ratio increased from 137% to 142%, a 5 - percentage - point increase [4][26]. - In 25Q2, the average annualized return of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was 17.32%, and the average annualized return of convertible bond funds was 15.90%. There were 11 convertible bond funds that outperformed the CSI Convertible Bond Index, with a winning rate of 27.5%; 15 outperformed the convertible bond fund index, with a winning rate of 37.5% [5][29]. - Public - offering funds significantly increased their positions in social services, non - bank finance, beauty care, food and beverage, basic chemicals, and other industries. Industries such as steel, banks, and household appliances saw a significant decrease in the market value of public - offering fund holdings in 25Q2 [6][35]. - The top five heavy - position convertible bonds of convertible bond funds were Industrial Bank Convertible Bonds, Shanghai United Bank Convertible Bonds, 25 Treasury Bond 01, Shanghai Pufa Bank Convertible Bonds, and Chongqing Bank Convertible Bonds [6][38].

Core Viewpoint - Asset Management Companies (AMCs) are increasingly active in the Chinese banking equity market, taking on the role of "white knights" to support listed banks through strategic investments and governance participation [1][2][3] Group 1: AMC Activities in Banking - Recent activities include CITIC Financial Asset increasing its stake in Everbright Bank from 7.08% to 8.00% and in Bank of China from 17.32% to 18.02% [2][3] - China Cinda Asset converted 11.785 billion yuan of SPDB convertible bonds into 912 million A-shares, becoming one of the top ten shareholders of SPDB [4] - China Great Wall Asset has nominated executives to serve as non-executive directors at Minsheng Bank, enhancing its governance role [1][4] Group 2: Evolution of AMC's Role - AMCs have transitioned from "bad debt banks" in the 1990s to strategic investors in the banking sector, reflecting a shift from policy-driven missions to market-oriented investments [1][5] - The current strategy of AMCs emphasizes both financial returns and the optimization of financial resource allocation [1][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Regulatory Environment - The tightening of shareholder qualification requirements and regulations on related party transactions has created a favorable policy environment for AMCs to enter the banking sector [8] - The average price-to-book ratio of A-share banks has remained low at 0.6, making bank stocks attractive for AMCs seeking stable dividend income [8][9] Group 4: Financial Performance and Strategic Needs - Traditional bad debt disposal business for AMCs is declining, prompting a shift towards bank equity investments for stable income and improved financial reporting [10] - CITIC Financial Asset reported a net profit of 9.618 billion yuan in 2024, a 440% increase from the previous year, highlighting the financial benefits of its investment strategy [10] Group 5: Collaborative Synergies - AMCs are deepening their cooperation with banks by participating in governance and risk management, which enhances the overall stability of the financial system [11] - The involvement of AMCs in bank governance helps to break internal control issues and reduce related party transaction risks [11] Group 6: Challenges and Future Considerations - Long-term success of AMC investments in banks must align with their functional positioning rather than purely commercial interests [12] - Regulatory frameworks need to ensure that AMC participation in banking governance is both effective and transparent [12]

New Stock Listings - Huadian New Energy (600930) listed at an issue price of 3.18 on July 16, 2025[1] - Zhongcheng Tui (300208) has 2 trading days remaining until the last trading day[1] - Tui Shi Jin Gang (600190) also has 2 trading days remaining until the last trading day[1] Abnormal Fluctuations - Huayin Power (600744) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on July 15, 2025[1] - Changcheng Military Industry (601606) announced abnormal fluctuations on July 15, 2025[1] - ST Yanzhen (603389) reported abnormal fluctuations on July 16, 2025[1] Other Notable Announcements - ST Ya Zhen (000627) reported significant fluctuations with a value of 7189 on July 16, 2025[3] - Guosheng Technology (603778) reported fluctuations with a value of 3370 on July 15, 2025[3] - ST Xin Chao (600777) reported fluctuations with a value of 1008 on July 11, 2025[3]