Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the supply-side reform of small and medium-sized banks, highlighting the potential for regional banks to thrive through local advantages and strategic positioning in a changing financial landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Supply-Side Reform of Small and Medium-Sized Banks - The operational characteristics of small and medium-sized banks are a result of the resonance between regional environments and business strategies [3]. - Identifying the survivors and outstanding performers among small and medium-sized banks requires a focus on regional clientele and the reflection of their strategic asset-liability management [3][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy in the Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to undergo a long-term revaluation driven by factors such as the continuous allocation of long-term funds by institutional investors, the alleviation of systemic risk concerns, and the undervaluation of ROE stability [6][11]. - Current A-share listed banks maintain a dividend yield of over 4%, which is more than 2 percentage points above the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicating a historical high [6][8]. - The stability of profit growth in listed banks ensures predictable and sustainable dividends, making bank stocks a scarce high-dividend asset in a low-interest-rate environment [7][11]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics and Performance - The ROE of listed banks has remained stable at around 10%, significantly higher than the 6.7% of non-financial enterprises in the A-share market [11]. - The banking sector's PE ratio is below 7, the lowest in the industry, indicating overly pessimistic expectations and suggesting that a correction in bank stock valuations is inevitable [11][12]. Group 4: Focus Areas for Investment - Investment should concentrate on high-quality regional banks with no burdens and high provisions, which exhibit growth potential and should not trade below book value [14]. - Additionally, banks with stable profit expectations, strong potential for capital inflows, and relatively high index weight should be prioritized for investment [14]. Group 5: Historical Context and Research Commitment - Since 2021, the company has been committed to closely tracking regional banks, successfully recommending stocks like Suzhou Bank and Chongqing Bank, which have shown significant market performance [15][18].

Macro Factors - UBS highlights concerns over rising populism leading to irresponsible fiscal policies, estimating a need for a 3% GDP fiscal tightening to stabilize the US government debt-to-GDP ratio [2] - Bank stocks perform better relative to other sectors during rising bond yields, with their performance closely tied to the steepening of the yield curve [2] - The growth of private sector loans is rebounding in Europe, particularly in corporate loans in France and Italy, with UBS's macro model indicating European bank stocks are currently fairly valued [2] Valuation Insights - Bank stocks in Europe and the US are trading at approximately 10% below their long-term average P/E ratios, with UBS suggesting that the cost of equity in Europe is too high at 11.6% compared to 8.8% in the US [3] - A 20 basis point increase in default loss rates or a drop in interest rates below 1% would be required to achieve the estimated 10%-14% EPS downgrade already factored into valuations, which UBS believes is unlikely [3] - UBS maintains global GDP growth forecasts at 2.9% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026, indicating a stable economic outlook [3] Reasons for Revaluation of Bank Stocks - Banks have demonstrated stronger resilience during the current downturn due to stress tests, high capital requirements for risky loans, and strict regulations [4] - Non-macro headwinds have significantly diminished, with deleveraging nearly complete and a reduction in litigation and fines against banks [4] - The risk of disruption from emerging technologies has decreased as these "disruptors" face stricter regulations and some have been acquired by traditional banks [4][5] Tactical Considerations - The banking sector is not overly crowded, ranking 8th globally and 9th in Europe in terms of sector crowding [6] - Earnings expectations for the banking sector are improving, with UBS ranking it 2nd in Europe and 5th globally for earnings revisions [6] - The banking sector is not severely overbought, with current overbought levels at one standard deviation, typically leading to outperformance [6] Recommended Banks - UBS recommends several banks across different regions, including BAWAG, ING, Standard Chartered, Barclays, and Intesa in Europe/UK, and Citizens Financial, KeyCorp, and Webster Financial in the US [7] - The selection criteria focus on countries nearing the end of interest rate hikes or those with high rates expected to decrease, as well as banks in strong currency countries [7] Strategic Preferences - UBS's global equity strategy team favors retail banks in Europe, select emerging market exposures, US investment banks like JPMorgan, and Japanese banks [8] - The preference for US banks is weaker due to anticipated domestic demand slowdown and faster-than-expected interest rate declines [8] - UBS identifies banks with a consensus "sell" rating but positive earnings revision trends, such as the Canadian National Bank and ABN AMRO, as potential investment opportunities [8]