站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"谋篇布局的关键节点，中国大资管行业正经历一场深刻的结构性重塑。截 至12月30日，上证指数收于3965.12点，年内累计上涨超700点，涨幅超23%，创近五年最佳表现。在这 轮以科技、高端制造和高股息资产为主线的结构性行情中，以保险资金为代表的长期资金持续净流入， 成为稳定市场中枢、支撑新质生产力估值的重要力量，"耐心资本"正从制度构想转化为真实市场动能。 中保投资董事长贾飙12月27日在中国财富管理50人论坛2025年会上指出，大资管行业已从监管套利驱动 的粗放增长，转向以"服务新质生产力、构建耐心资本、防范系统性风险"为内核的高质量发展新阶段。 他强调，在低利率、资产荒与AI革命三重压力下，唯有通过制度精准回应、能力系统升级与子行业错 位协同，才能支撑"十五五"期间金融供给侧改革的深层目标。 这一判断不仅关乎行业格局变迁，更触及国家金融体系如何有效引导长期资本流向科技创新、先进制造 与绿色转型等关键领域的根本命题。大资管，正在从市场工具升维为国家战略支点。 中国大资管行业的演进可划分为四个阶段：2003—2007年为起步期，标志性事件包括银行理财业务制度 化、保险资管公司成立 ...

——银行业 2026 年度投资策略 行业研究丨深度报告丨银行 [Table_Title] 经营周期与配置价值的再平衡 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 风险底线牢固是银行股估值修复的基础，银行股仍处于确立风险底线的进程中，稳定的配置价 值主导估值修复，长期角度金融供给侧改革加速，国有行和头部城商行份额加速集中。基本面 维度，2026 年重点关注净息差企稳与零售风险压力，预计 2026 年行业负债成本继续改善推动 净息差有望实现企稳，资产质量重点关注按揭等房抵类资产风险压力，预计目前银行按揭贷款 LTV 仍处于可控水平。目前银行股 PB-ROE 视角下仍被显著低估，短期资金面波动不改变银行 股配置价值，险资等配置型资金力量仍在持续加仓应对资产荒压力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 27 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Tit ...

Core Viewpoint - The merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities marks a significant milestone in the industry, entering the operational phase of a rare "three-in-one" restructuring [1][2]. Group 1: Merger Details - The restructuring plan was disclosed on December 17, with share exchange prices set at 36.91 CNY for CICC, 16.14 CNY for Dongxing Securities, and 19.15 CNY for Cinda Securities [2]. - The exchange ratios are 1:0.4373 for Dongxing Securities and 1:0.5188 for Cinda Securities, with CICC expected to issue approximately 3.096 billion new A-shares [3]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The merger is expected to enhance CICC's total asset scale to over 1 trillion CNY, positioning it among the top in the industry in terms of revenue and capital strength [3]. - The integration aims to create a comprehensive service system covering institutional and retail clients, both domestic and international, significantly improving service capabilities and resilience against market fluctuations [4]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The merger is seen as a model for future financial institution restructuring, accelerating the trend of concentration among leading firms and shifting the industry focus from quantity to quality competition [5]. - The restructuring aligns with national strategies to build a first-class investment bank and reflects the regulatory push for optimizing the structure of the securities industry [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - CICC aims to leverage the scale advantages from the merger to drive high-quality development and contribute to the long-term growth of China's capital markets [8].

华夏时报记者 卢梦雪 见习记者 林佳茹 北京报道 消费贷贴息政策正在向地方层面纵深推进。 近期，四川、重庆、贵州等多地陆续启动省级贴息工作，首次将地方中小银行纳入经办机构范围，标志 着"国补"政策在地方进一步细化落地。重庆银行、成都银行、贵州银行等多家银行已迅速发布贴息细 则，助力本地消费市场升温。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉向《华夏时报》表示，此举实现了"精准滴灌与金融毛细血管激活的双向强 化"。地方中小银行扎根区域，能精准对接县域及社区消费需求，填补全国性机构服务盲区，助力政策 触达"最后一公里"。这也折射出金融供给侧改革的持续深化——中小银行正借此加快零售转型，构 建"国补引领、地补补充"的协同格局，推动消费金融进一步走向场景化与数字化融合。 中小银行助力消费贷落地 进入12月，地方层面的贴息动作密集落地。四川、重庆、贵州率先启动省级贴息工作，将地方中小银行 纳入消费贷贴息经办机构范围。 12月2日，四川省财政厅等六部门发布《关于落实巩固拓展经济回升向好势头的财政金融政策有关事项 的通知》，明确2025年10月1日至2026年3月31日期间，居民在国家指定银行外的在川银行获取个人消费 贷款（不含信用卡业务 ...

Core Viewpoint - The merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Dongxing Securities, and Cinda Securities marks a significant restructuring in the Chinese securities industry, aiming to create a "super investment bank" with enhanced capital strength and comprehensive financial services capabilities [1][2]. Summary by Sections Merger Details - The merger will be executed through a share swap, with CICC as the surviving entity, absorbing all assets, liabilities, and personnel from Dongxing and Cinda Securities [1]. - Following the merger, CICC's total assets are expected to exceed 1 trillion RMB, significantly enhancing its capital strength and positioning it among the top players in the industry [1][4]. Strategic Intent - This merger is a strategic move to align with national policies aimed at cultivating top-tier investment banks and enhancing the financial supply-side reform [2]. - The merger aims to transform scale advantages into comprehensive financial service capabilities, enhancing resilience and international competitiveness [2]. Share Exchange Mechanism - The share exchange prices are set at 36.91 RMB for CICC, 16.14 RMB for Dongxing, and 19.15 RMB for Cinda, reflecting a premium over previous closing prices [2][4]. - Approximately 3.096 billion new shares of CICC will be issued to complete the exchange [3]. Shareholder Protection Mechanisms - The merger includes multiple layers of shareholder protection, such as dissenting shareholder rights and lock-up periods for major shareholders [4]. - The exchange ratios for Dongxing and Cinda shareholders reflect premiums of approximately 23% and 7.6%, respectively, indicating consideration for minority shareholders [4]. Industry Impact - The merger is expected to create a leading "super" securities group, fundamentally reshaping the competitive landscape of the Chinese securities industry [5][7]. - CICC's financial and operational metrics will see a historic leap, setting new benchmarks for industry leaders [5]. Financial Projections - Post-merger, CICC's annualized revenue is projected to exceed 50 billion RMB, with net profits reaching around 15 billion RMB, positioning it among the top three in the industry [5]. - The merger will expand CICC's network to over 400 branches, enhancing its reach to more than 4 million retail clients [5]. Synergy and Operational Efficiency - The merger is expected to enhance capital efficiency and regional coverage, leveraging the strengths of each entity to create a comprehensive service platform [6][10]. - The integration aims to provide a full lifecycle of financial services, from startup to restructuring, enhancing client engagement and operational efficiency [10]. Strategic Vision - The merger aligns with national financial strategies, aiming to reduce the number of institutions while improving quality and service efficiency [12]. - The combined entity will focus on creating a unique ecosystem that integrates investment banking, asset management, and special asset operations [12]. Market Outlook - Analysts maintain a "buy" rating for CICC's A/H shares, citing the merger's potential to strengthen capital and enhance competitive positioning [13]. - The success of the merger will depend on the realization of synergies and the ability to transform from a physical merger to a value-creating entity [13].

2025年12月17日晚间，中金公司（601995）（03908）与东兴证券（601198）（601198.SH）、信达证券 （601059）（601059.SH）同步披露《关于换股吸收合并之重大资产重组预案》（下称"预案"），标志 着酝酿已久的资本市场"三合一"头部券商整合方案正式进入实质性操作阶段。根据公告，三家公司A股 及H股股票将于12月18日开市起复牌。 中金合并案中的定价逻辑与长期信心信号 根据预案披露的交易架构，本次重组将采取吸收合并方式，由中金公司作为存续公司，向东兴证券与信 达证券的全体股东发行A股股票作为对价，交换其持有的目标公司全部股份。交易完成后，东兴证券与 信达证券的法人主体资格将予以注销，其全部资产、负债、业务及人员均由存续方中金公司承继。 根据本次披露的交易预案，本次吸收合并的定价机制以市场化原则为核心，具体以交易各方董事会决议 公告日前20个交易日的股票交易均价作为基准价格。据此，存续方中金公司的A股换股价格确定为36.91 元/股，被吸收合并方东兴证券的换股价格为16.14元/股，信达证券的换股价格为19.15元/股。 | 收 | | 许可项目:证券业务;外汇业务:公募证券投 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The merger plan of CICC, Dongxing Securities, and China Cinda has been implemented, enhancing the comprehensive financial service capabilities [3] - The merger is expected to result in CICC's operating revenue of approximately 27.4 billion yuan and total assets reaching 1.01 trillion yuan, ranking it fourth among listed securities firms [3] - The ongoing supply-side reform in the financial sector is expected to improve the competitive landscape and service capabilities of the industry [4] Summary by Sections Merger Details - On December 17, CICC, Dongxing Securities, and China Cinda announced their share swap merger plan [2] - The share swap ratios are 0.4373 shares of CICC for each share of Dongxing Securities and 0.5188 shares for each share of China Cinda [3] Financial Projections - Post-merger, CICC's net profit is projected to reach 9.52 billion yuan, making it the sixth largest among listed securities firms [3] - The industry is expected to see significant growth in 2025 due to ongoing capital market reforms and the continuous influx of long-term funds [4] Market Positioning - The merger is part of a broader trend of consolidation in the securities industry, aimed at creating "first-class investment banks and investment institutions" [3][4] - Major shareholders have committed to a 36-month lock-up period for their shares acquired in the merger [3]

截至2025年三季度末，基金管理公司及其子公司、证券公司及其子公司、期货公司及其资管子公司、私 募基金管理机构资产管理产品总规模达80.03万亿元，其中，公募基金规模36.74万亿元，证券公司及其 子公司私募资产管理产品规模6.37万亿元，基金管理公司及其子公司私募资产管理产品规模5.70万亿 元，基金管理公司管理的养老金规模6.85万亿元，期货公司及其资管子公司私募资产管理产品规模0.39 万亿元，私募基金规模21.99万亿元，资产支持专项计划（ABS）规模2.18万亿元。 ｜2025年12月18日星期四｜ NO.1 今日复牌！中金收购东兴、信达预案出炉 备受市场瞩目的中金公司吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券，迎来重要进展。12月17日晚间，上述三家上市 券商齐发公告：每股东兴证券、信达证券能换取中金公司股票的比例，分别确定为1:0.4373、 1:0.5188。此外，三家公司股票于12月18日复牌。合并后，中金公司将成为行业第四家总资产跨入"万亿 俱乐部"的券商。业内人士普遍认为，中金公司合并东兴证券、信达证券，正是其剑指国际一流投行建 设的决心体现。然而，规模跃升只是表象。有非银分析师指出，此次合并的关键逻辑 ...

点燃民间投资 民间投资作为宏观经济活跃度的核心风向标，是稳定就业岗位、夯实经济增长基础的关键力量，其发展 质量经济的稳定性和可持续性息息相关。据国家发展改革委数据显示，民间投资占全国固定资产投资比 重长期保持在一半以上，对稳增长、促创新的支撑作用不可或缺。然而，当前，我国民间投资仍面临融 资、投资、市场等多方维度的制约，活力释放受阻。在融资端，民间投资存在着资本金缺口大、信贷门 槛高、退出渠道窄等压力，部分民营企业项目启动资金不足。在投资端，民间投资面临着准入壁垒、信 息不对称、收益预期不稳等问题，其在铁路、核电等领域的参与度长期偏低。在市场端，原材料价格周 期性波动、消费复苏进程放缓等外部因素，导致民间资本投资观望情绪加剧。 作者｜吴卫星，首都经济贸易大学金融学院教授、博士生导师；张丽娜，对外经济贸易大学中国金融学 院博士研究生 2025年中央经济工作会议明确要"引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领 域"，同时还要"继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用，有效激发民间投资活力""创新科技金融服务"以 及"深入推进中小金融机构减量提质"。这些部署共同构成了2026年金融工作聚焦服务实体、防控风险 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨银行 [Table_Title] 如何理解银行股年末资金面波动？ ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 49 周 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 银行股四季度初上涨与近期调整，主要反映年末交易性资金的配置行为波动。10 月上旬银行指 数基金获得大幅流入，10 月 17 日单周净流入金额高达 82 亿元，创近年来周度历史新高。但 最近连续五周，银行指数基金持续净流出，并且近两周流出力度扩大，本周净流出 26 亿元。我 们预计主要反映季度和季末对于市场风险偏好的预期变化，同时基金投资分类为 TPL 账户，预 计保险等机构年底也存在兑现收益的需要。我们认为跨年节点过后，配置力量将重新推升银行 股估值及银行指数基金规模。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 如何理解银行股年末资金面波动？ 2] ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 ...