股指期货周报：做空情绪快速释放 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号：F0211891 投资咨询证号：Z0000567 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 第二部分 周度数据追踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 一周要闻 GALAXY FUTURES 2 本周全球股市遭遇下跌潮。纳斯达克指数跌幅2.74%，日经225指数下跌3.48%，韩国首尔综合指数跌超 3.95%。 此次下跌由美联储降息预期下降和OpengAI前景疑虑、比特币大跌引发，呈现跨资产传染特征，对 A 股等市场也 形成外部波动传导压力。 16只硬科技主题基金同日获批。11月21日，，包括首批7只科创创业人工智能ETF、3只科创板芯片ETF、4只科创 板芯片设计主题ETF，以及2只科技主题主动权益类基金。 美国12月降息概率再升。11月21日晚间，美联储官员威廉姆斯出面安抚市场，暗示近期仍存在降息空间。受之影 响CME美联储观察工具对美联储12月降息的概率预期猛增至了67.3%，美股全线反弹。 中金拟换股吸收合并两家券商：11 月 19 日晚间，中金公司公告拟换股吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券，三家公司 A 股于 20 日起停牌，预计停牌不超 ...

其次，客户生态的立体化整合释放乘数效应。从客户价值深度挖掘角度，此次整合创造了巨大的交叉销 售空间。中金现有的机构与超高净值客户群，将成为东兴证券区域投行项目与信达特殊投资产品的潜在 资金方；反过来，东兴证券深耕的中型企业与地方财政客户，以及信达服务的特殊处境企业，都将为中 金的高端投行与财富管理业务输送优质资产。这种客户资源的双向导流与价值挖掘，将显著提升单客户 综合收益贡献，推动利润率结构性改善。 另外，资本配置的战略性重构提升ROE。从资本管理视角，合并实现了资本属性的优化匹配。中金可将 东兴、信达相对充裕的运营资本，重新配置至机构业务、做市交易等资本消耗型的高回报领域。通过消 除重复职能、整合运营平台与优化分支机构网络，预计可实现可观成本协同效应。更重要的是，三表合 并后增强的资本实力与流动性缓冲，将支撑中金在FICC、衍生品等重资本业务上采取更进取的战略， 直接驱动净资产收益率（ROE）的持续提升。 这一业务重构的本质，是通过战略性整合实现各业务线条的能级跃升，将三家机构原有的线性增长路 径，重塑为网络化、生态化的指数级增长模式，最终实现企业内在价值的系统性重估。 政策共振：制度红利与战略窗口的精准 ...

Core Insights - The opening of the Xishan Financial Innovation Port marks the official launch of the integration of finance, industry, and base, aimed at enhancing the regional financial ecosystem and supporting high-quality development [4][6] - The innovation port will focus on attracting diverse businesses such as equity investment, technology finance, and asset management, creating a comprehensive financial service ecosystem that covers the entire development cycle of enterprises [1][3] Investment and Infrastructure - The total investment in the Xishan Financial Innovation Port is approximately 150 million yuan, covering an area of about 13.8 acres with a total construction area of nearly 17,000 square meters [3] - The port is designed with a modern service industry functional area blueprint, including various sectors such as equity investment, financial services, e-commerce headquarters, and co-working spaces [3] Financial Services and Support - The port has established a financial service support system that integrates equity and debt financing, providing a range of investment options from angel funds to industry guidance funds, as well as debt financing solutions like financing guarantees and supply chain finance [3][6] - The focus will be on five major directions: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, aiming to bridge the gap in financial support for the real economy [4] Economic Impact and Development - The establishment of the Xishan Financial Innovation Port is expected to enhance the region's capital aggregation capabilities and service quality, thereby supporting the construction of a high-quality industrial cluster in Xishan [6] - The port aims to optimize the local business environment and strengthen the resilience and innovation capacity of industrial development [6]

Group 1 - Western Securities has completed the management team establishment at Guorong Securities, appointing Huang Bin as chairman, marking a significant step in the integration process [1] - The new management structure is expected to enhance governance and promote business collaboration, increasing market expectations for strategic transformation [1] - The trend of consolidation in the brokerage sector is accelerating, potentially leading to a revaluation opportunity for small and medium-sized brokerages [1] Group 2 - Public fund index products have reached nearly 8 trillion yuan in scale, with significant growth from leading fund companies, indicating a strong preference for passive investment [2] - The top two fund companies, E Fund and Huaxia Fund, have surpassed 1 trillion yuan in index product scale, reflecting a pronounced head effect in the market [2] - The expansion of ETF scale is likely to support the liquidity of related index constituent stocks, impacting brokerage business positively [2] Group 3 - Public funds reported a profit of over 2 trillion yuan in Q3, a substantial increase from 385.1 billion yuan in Q2, driven by a strong performance in equity assets [3] - All top 10 profitable fund products in Q3 were large-cap ETFs, highlighting the growing trend of passive investment [3] - The increase in profits may lead to further concentration of funds in leading ETFs, supporting the liquidity of related index stocks [3] Group 4 - Huatai-PB Fund has appointed Cui Chun as the new general manager, filling a key leadership vacancy that has existed for nearly six months [4] - Cui Chun brings over 20 years of cross-market asset management experience, which may inject new momentum into the company's business expansion [4] - The leadership change at Huatai-PB Fund could influence the competitive landscape in the public fund industry, reflecting the industry's emphasis on versatile management talent [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of capital market reforms in supporting the real economy and enhancing financial services for technological innovation and industrial transformation [2][15] - It highlights the need for comprehensive reforms in the investment and financing sectors to better support high-tech enterprises and improve the quality of listed companies [3][16] - The report discusses the dual circulation of consumption driven by capital markets, which can enhance consumer confidence and promote economic growth [4][17] - It stresses the necessity of improving the social security system to facilitate a positive interaction between capital markets and pension finance, addressing structural mismatches in funding [5][19] Summary by Sections Section 1: Capital Market Reforms - The capital market is undergoing profound changes driven by the rise of new economies, with a focus on enhancing its role in supporting technological innovation and industrial upgrades [2][14] - Financial supply-side reforms are essential to ensure that financial resources are efficiently directed towards new economic sectors [15] Section 2: Technological Innovation - The report advocates for a comprehensive reform of the investment and financing sectors to support the growth of technology-driven enterprises, emphasizing the need for long-term capital [3][16] - It notes that the capital market's unique mechanism of risk-sharing aligns well with the needs of technological innovation [3] Section 3: Consumption Enhancement - The capital market can create a positive cycle of wealth effect, income enhancement, and increased consumption capacity, thereby boosting economic vitality [4][17] - It suggests that financial tools like IPOs and bonds can support the expansion and upgrading of consumer enterprises [4] Section 4: Social Security and Pension Finance - The report highlights the importance of developing pension finance to address the structural mismatch in capital market funding [5][19] - It points out the need for a multi-tiered pension system to improve the overall structure and efficiency of the social security system [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing supportive monetary policies and financial reforms to bolster the real economy in China, especially in light of recent economic challenges and the need for sustained growth [3][4][5]. Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced the resumption of public market government bond trading after a 10-month hiatus, aimed at enhancing monetary and fiscal policy coordination [5][6]. - The PBOC's actions are intended to inject long-term liquidity into the banking system, encouraging increased credit issuance to support economic growth [6][7]. - Analysts predict that the resumption of bond trading will lead to a more stable yield curve and lower financing costs for the real economy [6][7]. Financial Sector Reforms - The financial authorities are focusing on supply-side reforms, particularly in financing models that align with industrial development, emphasizing long-term funding for hard technology and emerging industries [5][9]. - A series of nine new foreign exchange policies are set to be implemented to enhance trade facilitation and promote high-level openness in the financial sector [9][10]. Risk Management and Regulatory Measures - The article highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to financial risk management, addressing both macro and micro-level risks to ensure overall financial system stability [11][12]. - The PBOC and other regulatory bodies are committed to maintaining strict oversight of emerging financial sectors, particularly concerning the risks associated with virtual currencies and stablecoins [12][13].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Stability - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced the resumption of public market treasury bond trading to enhance monetary policy coordination with fiscal policy and stabilize financial markets [1][2] - PBOC's implementation of moderately loose monetary policy aims to manage market expectations and maintain stability in stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets [1][3] - The resumption of treasury bond trading is expected to inject long-term liquidity into the banking system, guiding financial institutions to increase credit issuance [2][3] Group 2: Capital Market Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to deepen reforms in the capital market to enhance its inclusiveness, adaptability, and competitiveness [5][6] - The CSRC will implement a refinancing framework and promote mergers and acquisitions to strengthen listed companies and improve shareholder returns [6][7] - New policies will optimize the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system and enhance protections for small and medium investors [6][7] Group 3: Foreign Exchange and Trade Policies - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) will introduce nine new policies to enhance trade facilitation and expand high-level openness in cross-border trade [8][9] - The focus will be on optimizing foreign exchange fund settlement for new trade entities and managing funds for domestic companies listed overseas [8][9] - The reforms aim to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi and high-quality opening of capital projects, enhancing China's financial ecosystem [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The development of China's public REITs market is a product of deep integration between financial supply-side reform and national strategy, transitioning from an exploratory phase to a quality improvement phase since its pilot launch in 2020 [1] Group 1: Market Development and Challenges - The public REITs market in China has evolved through a process of identifying problems, conducting scientific research, innovating practices, summarizing experiences, and continuously addressing new challenges [2] - The market's growth requires balancing economic growth, high-quality development, and risk management, involving coordination among local government actions, financial policies, and real estate policies [1][2] - The current REITs market, valued in the hundreds of billions, is just a starting point compared to the trillion-level stock of real estate assets, indicating significant room for growth [3] Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Framework - The pilot phase adopted a "public fund + ABS" product structure, which aligns with existing regulatory frameworks but raises concerns about governance complexity and unclear responsibilities [2] - Future institutional transitions must clarify the legal and market positioning of REITs while establishing a supportive policy ecosystem across various sectors, including industry, finance, and taxation [2] Group 3: Strategic Alignment and Market Potential - China's REITs are closely aligned with national strategies, such as the "dual carbon" goals and housing policies, demonstrating their role in addressing financing challenges in key sectors [3] - The REITs market has expanded to cover over ten asset classes, including energy, transportation, and affordable housing, showcasing its versatility and potential for further development [3] Group 4: Pricing Mechanism and Valuation - The pricing mechanism of REITs has been a focal point, with past issues of excessive price volatility and liquidity challenges needing resolution through improved institutional design and technological innovation [4] - The introduction of ESG evaluation frameworks is expected to provide new dimensions for value discovery, addressing the limitations of traditional valuation models [4] Group 5: Internationalization and Global Competitiveness - The domestic REITs market has the potential for international development, with plans to establish an independent international REITs trading platform in Hong Kong and attract foreign capital [4] - The goal is to create a globally competitive REITs market centered in China, enhancing its influence in the global financial system [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for effective implementation of monetary policy measures to enhance their impact, focusing on the use of existing tools rather than introducing new ones [1][2]. Monetary Policy Strategy - The third quarter meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, with a shift from "maintaining" to "promoting" stable economic growth and reasonable price levels [2]. - The meeting introduced a new focus on executing various monetary policy measures to fully release their effects, indicating a greater emphasis on the utilization of existing tools [2][3]. Financial Market Stability - The PBOC aims to guide large banks in supporting the real economy while encouraging small and medium-sized banks to enhance their capital strength, thereby maintaining financial market stability [3]. - Structural monetary policy tools are to be effectively implemented to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [3]. Current Monetary Policy Effectiveness - As of the end of August, the total social financing stock reached 433.66 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, slightly higher than the previous year [2]. - The growth rates of M2 and social financing remain between 8% and 9%, aligning with economic growth and price level expectations, reflecting a moderately loose monetary policy stance [2]. Future Outlook - The PBOC plans to utilize a variety of monetary policy tools based on macroeconomic conditions and changes in the economic landscape [4].

Core Viewpoint - The financial system in China is actively supporting the real economy through various financing methods, with a focus on reducing costs and enhancing access to credit for enterprises, particularly during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financing Trends - The average annual growth rate of loans for technology-based SMEs, inclusive microloans, and green loans exceeds 20% [5]. - In 2021, the average loan interest rate for enterprises was above 4%, but it has now dropped below 3%, significantly easing the financial burden on businesses [2][3]. - The total amount of new funds provided to the real economy by the banking and insurance sectors reached 170 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][3]. Group 2: Loan Data Insights - The interest rate for newly issued inclusive microloans decreased from 5.08% in December 2020 to 3.48% by June 2025 [3]. - The balance of RMB loans and social financing scale increased from 172.75 trillion yuan and 284.83 trillion yuan at the end of 2020 to 269.1 trillion yuan and 433.66 trillion yuan by August 2025 [3]. - The proportion of loans to enterprises increased from 63% to 68% from the end of 2020 to the first quarter of 2025, indicating a shift towards supporting the real economy [5]. Group 3: Policy Support and Structural Changes - Since 2020, the central bank has implemented 12 reserve requirement ratio cuts and 9 interest rate reductions, leading to a decrease in the loan market quotation rates [3]. - Financial policies have been designed to enhance the efficiency of financial services, focusing on technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [5][6]. - The financial system is expected to continue balancing stability and progress, with an emphasis on supporting technological innovation and high-quality development in the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [7].