非银行金融 2026 年 3 月 3 日 行业点评 江苏省内牌照整合，金融供给侧改革持续 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业点评*非银行金融*中金吸收合并方 案落地，供给侧格局持续优化*强于大市 20251218 【平安证券】行业深度报告*非银行金融*证券业供给 侧优化加速，关注券商整合机遇与效果*强于大市 20241022 证券分析师 | 李冰婷 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520040002 | | | LIBINGTING419@pingan.com.cn | | 许淼 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060525020001 | | | XUMIAO533@pingan.com.cn | 事项： 3 月 2 日，东吴证券发布并购东海证券相关通知。 平安观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 省内金融牌照整合，综合化金融服务能力加强。根据公告，东吴证券拟通 过发行股份的方式购买常投集团所持有标的公司 26.68%股权，以获得标 的公司的控制权。东海证券实控人为常投集团（持股占比为 26.68%），常 投集 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking and insurance sectors are undergoing significant changes due to the deepening of interest rate marketization and various macroeconomic factors, leading to a shift in focus from retaining deposits to activating funds and enhancing intermediary income [1][4]. Group 1: Banking Sector Changes - The central bank is implementing a prudent monetary policy, lowering relending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, which has led to bank deposit rates entering the "1-digit" era, diminishing their attractiveness [1]. - In 2026, a record peak of 32 trillion yuan in household time deposits will mature, with over 60% concentrated in the first quarter, raising questions about the future allocation of these funds [1][2]. - Banks are adjusting their sales strategies, increasingly promoting insurance products, particularly savings-type insurance, as a core alternative for maturing deposits [2][3]. Group 2: Insurance Sector Developments - The insurance industry is transitioning from a focus on scale to high-quality development, with products like dividend insurance and annuities evolving to better meet the stable financial needs of residents [3]. - The regulatory framework established by the Financial Regulatory Bureau in March 2025 emphasizes the importance of understanding products and customers, which supports the standardized development of bank-insurance cooperation [3]. - The insurance sector is leveraging its product advantages to enhance the product offerings of banks, thereby helping banks increase intermediary income and alleviate margin pressure [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Trends - The current environment reflects a deepening of financial supply-side reforms, with financial institutions returning to their core mission of serving the real economy [4]. - The trend of interest rate marketization is becoming the new normal, with a long-term downward trajectory, while residents are increasingly seeking diversified investment options beyond traditional deposits [4]. - The future of bank-insurance sales is expected to trend towards standardization, refinement, diversification, and integration, driven by macroeconomic factors and evolving consumer needs [4].

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, a record 32 trillion yuan of residential time deposits will mature, with over 60% concentrated in the first quarter, prompting questions about the future allocation of these funds [2][8]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Changes - The central bank continues to implement a prudent monetary policy, lowering the re-lending and rediscount rates to guide market interest rates downwards, with a recent reduction of 0.25 percentage points announced on January 15, 2026 [2][9]. - As deposit yields decline and interest margin pressures increase, banks are shifting their focus from "retaining deposits" to "activating funds and enhancing intermediary income" [9][10]. Group 2: Insurance Products and Market Adaptation - Savings-type insurance products are becoming increasingly attractive due to their long-term interest rate locking and dual benefits of protection and savings, aligning with banks' transformation needs and residents' demand for stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment [9][10]. - The insurance sector is experiencing significant growth in the bancassurance channel, with reported premium income of 1.03 billion yuan for regular premiums and 1.096 billion yuan for lump-sum premiums in January, marking year-on-year increases of 34% and 24%, respectively [3][9]. Group 3: Industry Transformation and Regulatory Environment - The insurance industry is transitioning from a focus on scale to a focus on quality, with ongoing optimization of savings-type insurance products to better meet residents' stable financial management needs [10][11]. - The regulatory framework established by the Financial Regulatory Bureau in March 2025 emphasizes the importance of understanding products and customers, promoting compliance and suitability in bancassurance partnerships [10][11]. Group 4: Future Trends and Challenges - The future of bancassurance is expected to trend towards standardization, refinement, diversification, and integration, driven by macroeconomic factors such as financial supply-side reform and the increasing demand for diversified wealth management [5][11]. - Challenges remain, including the risk of inadequate customer demand analysis and product customization, which could hinder the effectiveness of bancassurance partnerships [11].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the positive role of small and medium-sized banks in supporting China's long-term economic development, particularly in fostering private enterprises and local economies while advancing financial market reforms [2][16] - It highlights the significant growth in total assets and liabilities of small and medium-sized banks, indicating their expanding market presence and competitiveness [16] Summary by Sections Overview of the Small and Medium-Sized Banking Industry - Small and medium-sized banks are defined as those excluding the six major state-owned banks, encompassing various types such as national joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks, rural commercial banks, and private banks [3][17] - These banks play a crucial role in providing diverse financial services, including cash management, online banking, investment banking, and microfinance [5][19] Industry Policies - The Chinese government has shown strong support for the development of small and medium-sized banks, with policies aimed at enhancing their operational environment and promoting rural revitalization [7][21] - Key policies include the "Opinions on Further Deepening Rural Reform" and measures to support micro-enterprise financing, which guide these banks to leverage their local advantages [21][23] Industry Chain - The upstream of the small and medium-sized banking industry includes IT service providers, payment platforms, and financial market participants, which support banks in digital transformation and service innovation [10][24] - The midstream consists of the banks themselves, which provide essential financial services to meet the diverse needs of consumers and businesses [10][24] - The downstream includes consumers and enterprises that utilize banking services for consumption, investment, and financing, reflecting a growing demand for financial services [11][25] Financial Performance - In 2024, the total assets of small and medium-sized banks reached 192.25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, while total liabilities were 177.36 trillion yuan, up 6.27% [16] - By November 2025, total assets are projected to grow to 201.6 trillion yuan, with liabilities increasing to 186.07 trillion yuan, indicating a continued upward trend in the sector [16]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significant role of small and medium-sized banks in supporting China's long-term economic development through flexible market mechanisms and high service efficiency [2] - It highlights the ongoing transformation and competitive pressures faced by these banks, leading to strategies aimed at enhancing market competitiveness and expanding their asset base [2][8] Group 1: Industry Overview - Small and medium-sized banks are defined as all banks excluding the six major state-owned banks, and they include various types such as national joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks, rural commercial banks, and private banks [4] - These banks have become a crucial part of China's financial ecosystem, holding a substantial share of total assets in the banking sector [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, the total assets of China's small and medium-sized banks reached 192.25 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.39%, while total liabilities were 177.36 trillion yuan, up 6.27% [2] - By November 2025, total assets increased to 201.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.49%, with total liabilities at 186.07 trillion yuan, a rise of 6.66% [2] Group 3: Policy Environment - The Chinese government has shown strong support for the development of small and medium-sized banks, with policies aimed at enhancing their role in financing small and micro enterprises and promoting rural revitalization [8] - Key policies include the "Opinions on Further Deepening Rural Reform" and measures to support small and micro enterprise financing, which guide these banks to leverage their local advantages [8][10] Group 4: Industry Chain - The upstream of the small and medium-sized banking industry chain includes IT service providers, payment platforms, and financial market participants, which support banks in innovation and service delivery [11] - The midstream consists of the banks themselves, which provide essential financial services to meet diverse consumer and business needs [11][12] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - As competition intensifies, small and medium-sized banks are adopting strategies such as capital supplementation, attracting strategic investors, and differentiated operations to enhance their market position [2][8] - The focus on small and micro enterprise financing has led to significant achievements in expanding the industry’s total assets [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share bank IPO market has been "frozen" for over four years, with only 31 banks attempting to go public, and only 5 currently in the queue, indicating deep-rooted challenges in the banking sector [1][4]. Group 1: IPO Market Status - Since the listing of Lanzhou Bank in 2022, the A-share bank IPO market has seen a significant slowdown, with only 5 banks entering the queue, including Huzhou Bank in the "inquiry" stage and 4 others "accepted" [1][4]. - Five banks, including Bozhou Yaodu Rural Commercial Bank, have voluntarily withdrawn their IPO applications, reflecting the difficulties faced in the current market environment [1][4]. Group 2: Structural Challenges - The primary obstacle to bank IPOs is related to equity issues, with several banks facing complex historical problems, such as Jiangnan Rural Commercial Bank's employee shareholding exceeding 500,000 shares, which has remained unresolved for six years [3]. - Regional distribution shows a concentration of banks from Zhejiang (4), Jiangsu (3), Guangdong (2), Hubei (2), and Anhui (2), indicating a geographical bias in the IPO pipeline [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The withdrawal of applications by banks like Yaodu Rural Commercial Bank and Guangzhou Bank in 2024 highlights the stringent regulatory environment, with banks facing complex equity structures and internal control deficiencies [4]. - The path for already listed banks to return to A-shares is also fraught with challenges, as seen with Huishang Bank and Tianjin Bank, which face governance and regulatory hurdles [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The stagnation of A-share bank IPOs is a result of financial supply-side reforms aimed at preventing systemic financial risks, leading to higher listing thresholds that compel banks to strengthen their capital bases and governance [5]. - Banks that address historical issues and improve governance may find renewed recognition in the capital markets as economic recovery and regulatory policy optimization occur [5].

Core Insights - The Shenzhen Municipal Financial Management Bureau has released an action plan for the insurance industry to support technological innovation and industrial development from 2026 to 2028, aiming to address the "long-term capital shortage" and "lack of risk coverage" in technology innovation [1][6] Group 1: Quantitative Goals - The action plan sets clear three-year development goals, including pushing national insurance funds to invest over 1 trillion yuan in Shenzhen and achieving an annual growth rate of over 10% in technology insurance premium income [2][3] - It aims to provide over 5 trillion yuan in risk coverage for technology enterprises annually and to launch at least 30 innovative insurance products each year in emerging fields like low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence [2][3] - By the end of 2028, the total assets of insurance entities in Shenzhen are expected to exceed 11 trillion yuan, with cumulative premium income over 700 billion yuan [2][3] Group 2: Key Support Measures - The action plan outlines eleven key support measures, including optimizing the utilization of insurance funds and establishing a project docking mechanism for insurance capital [3][4] - It encourages the development of technology insurance, promoting innovative product offerings in frontier technology fields and enhancing the talent insurance product system [3][4] - Specific measures include developing insurance products for the first set of equipment, intellectual property, and supporting the establishment of artificial intelligence insurance innovation centers [4][5] Group 3: Industry Collaboration and Innovation - The plan emphasizes the importance of collaboration between insurance institutions and technology companies, particularly in the fields of artificial intelligence and biotechnology [5][6] - It aims to enhance the insurance service system for marine industries and promote cross-border insurance cooperation between Shenzhen and Hong Kong [5][6] - The action plan also highlights the need for a robust reinsurance and co-insurance mechanism to support major strategic sectors [5][6] Group 4: Digital Transformation and Environment Optimization - The action plan supports the establishment of insurance innovation centers and encourages digital transformation within insurance institutions to improve operational management [7][8] - It proposes differentiated, scenario-based support measures tailored to the industrial advantages of different districts in Shenzhen [8] - The plan aims to enhance the digitalization of underwriting and claims services, optimizing customer experience [8] Group 5: Financial Supply-Side Reform - The action plan is rooted in Shenzhen's high-quality insurance development, with premium income growth of 12.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [9][10] - It highlights the successful introduction of significant insurance funds and innovative practices in various fields, providing a reference model for financial supply-side reform in China [9][10] - The unique aspects of the Shenzhen plan include its systematic design aimed at deeply embedding financial tools into the local innovation ecosystem [10]

Core Insights - The central theme of the news is the announcement by the central bank on January 15 to establish a special relending quota of 1 trillion yuan for private enterprises, aimed at alleviating financing bottlenecks for small and medium-sized private companies, marking a new phase of targeted financial support for the private economy [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Mechanism - The policy features a dual mechanism of "special quota + targeted interest rate," with the 1 trillion yuan relending set apart under the agricultural and small enterprise relending category, creating a tiered support system alongside an additional 500 billion yuan for agricultural and small enterprise relending [3]. - The interest rate for this relending will follow the same preferential standard as the current agricultural and small enterprise relending, specifically a one-year rate of 1.25%, aimed at guiding commercial banks to lower financing costs for private enterprises [3]. Group 2: Target Beneficiaries - The policy specifically targets medium-sized private enterprises with annual revenues between 50 million and 500 million yuan, which often find themselves in a "financing vacuum" despite having strong growth potential and high funding needs [3][4]. - The application process requires enterprises to submit materials through local banks, focusing on "soft information" such as tax records and social security contributions rather than solely relying on financial statements, thus addressing the challenges faced by asset-light technology companies [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - Economists highlight that the 1 trillion yuan relending has three strategic values: short-term relief of liquidity pressure, medium-term promotion of employment stability, and long-term facilitation of industrial transformation and upgrading [4]. - The policy encourages a focus on R&D investment intensity as a key assessment criterion, directing resources towards innovation, and works in conjunction with a concurrent 1.2 trillion yuan technology innovation relending initiative to support private tech enterprises [4]. Group 4: Recommendations for Enterprises - Experts recommend that enterprises seeking financing should prioritize applications at three key times: when bank quotas are ample at the end of Q1, before the mid-year assessment in June, and after policy evaluations around September [4]. - Application materials should emphasize the enterprise's core technologies and market prospects to avoid homogenized competition [4]. Group 5: Structural Reform - This financial supply-side structural reform is reshaping the ecosystem of the private economy, with the potential for more specialized and innovative enterprises to overcome financing constraints and seize development opportunities amid industrial upgrading [4]. - The central bank has indicated that it will dynamically adjust the toolset based on the implementation effects of the policy to ensure that financial resources are accurately directed to the most needed areas of the real economy [4].

站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"谋篇布局的关键节点，中国大资管行业正经历一场深刻的结构性重塑。截 至12月30日，上证指数收于3965.12点，年内累计上涨超700点，涨幅超23%，创近五年最佳表现。在这 轮以科技、高端制造和高股息资产为主线的结构性行情中，以保险资金为代表的长期资金持续净流入， 成为稳定市场中枢、支撑新质生产力估值的重要力量，"耐心资本"正从制度构想转化为真实市场动能。 中保投资董事长贾飙12月27日在中国财富管理50人论坛2025年会上指出，大资管行业已从监管套利驱动 的粗放增长，转向以"服务新质生产力、构建耐心资本、防范系统性风险"为内核的高质量发展新阶段。 他强调，在低利率、资产荒与AI革命三重压力下，唯有通过制度精准回应、能力系统升级与子行业错 位协同，才能支撑"十五五"期间金融供给侧改革的深层目标。 这一判断不仅关乎行业格局变迁，更触及国家金融体系如何有效引导长期资本流向科技创新、先进制造 与绿色转型等关键领域的根本命题。大资管，正在从市场工具升维为国家战略支点。 中国大资管行业的演进可划分为四个阶段：2003—2007年为起步期，标志性事件包括银行理财业务制度 化、保险资管公司成立 ...

Core Insights - The foundation for the valuation recovery of bank stocks is the establishment of a solid risk bottom line, with bank stocks currently in the process of confirming this bottom line [4][19] - Stable allocation value is leading the valuation recovery, with financial supply-side reforms accelerating in the long term, resulting in increased concentration of market share among state-owned banks and leading city commercial banks [4][7] - The focus for 2026 is on the stabilization of net interest margins and retail risk pressures, with expectations for improved liability costs driving net interest margins to stabilize [8][21] Group 1: Risk Bottom Line and Valuation Recovery - The valuation cycle of bank stocks fluctuates around the operating cycle, characterized by a pressured macro environment and significantly narrowed bank interest margins since 2023 [7][19] - The market anticipates a stabilization of interest margins and overall asset quality by 2026, although retail and real estate sectors remain under pressure [7][19] - The ongoing process of establishing a risk bottom line is crucial for the recovery of bank stock valuations, with state-owned banks expected to play a leading role in the consolidation of financial institutions [7][30] Group 2: Fundamental Focus on Interest Margin Stabilization and Retail Risk - Total loan growth is expected to decline to 5.5% in 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of approximately 1 trillion yuan, primarily due to continued pressure from retail loans [8][40] - The net interest margin is projected to stabilize, with a potential decrease in deposit costs by 20 to 30 basis points as excess savings from three-year fixed deposits mature [8][21] - Asset quality concerns are particularly focused on mortgage and collateralized loans, with the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of current mortgage loans remaining at controllable levels [8][21] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Market Dynamics - Bank stocks are still significantly undervalued from a PB-ROE perspective, especially among quality city commercial banks [9][29] - Despite short-term fluctuations in funding, the allocation value of bank stocks remains intact, with insurance capital continuing to increase its holdings in response to asset scarcity [9][21] - Recommended stocks include Hangzhou Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Jiangsu Bank, with a focus on quality city commercial banks and dividend-yielding assets like China Merchants Bank and Bank of Communications [11][9]