证券研究报告：银行|行业周报 证券研究报告：银行|银行资产负债月报 行业投资评级 | 收盘点位 | | 4267.63 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 4670.31 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3652.0 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 强于大市 |维持 分析师:张银新 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040001 Email:zhangyinxin@cnpsec.com 行业基本情况 近期研究报告 《银行 2025 年三季报综述：息差筑 底，手续费改善，国有行全部营利双 增》 - 2025.11.13 银行资负观察第五期 银行中长期负债压力仍存 l 投资要点 四季度以来，银行间资金面运行波动幅度显著小于 2023 年及 2024 年同期水平。进入 10 月后，货币政策工具呵护叠加政府债券发 行量不大，资金面出现季节性转松。10 月受部分银行负债稳定性下行 影响同业存单净融资大幅上行、发行利率亦小幅抬升，11 月后发行利 率整体回归平稳，总体维持历史低位。伴随定期存款集中到期持续对 银行资负两端造成压力，部分银行或继续提价加大主动负债力度。 l 银行流动性指标监测： ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - As of September 2025, the total assets of Lanzhou Bank reached CNY 523.36 billion, an increase of 7.62% from the beginning of the year [2] - Total liabilities amounted to CNY 482.54 billion, growing by 7.14% year-to-date [2] - Loans and advances issued were CNY 260.47 billion, reflecting a growth of 6.15% [2] - Deposits received totaled CNY 378.25 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 6.2% [2] Group 2: Loan and Deposit Management - The bank's personal loan growth is primarily driven by consumer credit needs, particularly for car purchases and home renovations [2] - The loan yield (excluding discounts) was 4.38%, down by 25 basis points from the beginning of the year [3] - The deposit interest rate stood at 2.18%, a decrease of 29 basis points year-to-date [3] - The net interest margin was 1.38%, down by 5 basis points compared to the start of the year [3] Group 3: Investment and Risk Management - The bank's investment in interbank wealth management primarily involves major state-owned banks and national joint-stock commercial banks [2] - All financial investments are classified as normal assets, adhering to a prudent investment philosophy [2] - The underlying assets of wealth management, trust plans, and asset management plans are mainly standardized bonds rated AA+ or above, with no involvement in credit-like assets [2] Group 4: Capital and Strategic Planning - In 2024, the bank issued CNY 3 billion in subordinated debt and CNY 5 billion in perpetual bonds [3] - The bank is actively exploring various feasible methods to strengthen its capital base [3] - The strategic planning is conducted on a five-year basis, with the current plan nearing completion and a new round of strategic planning underway [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [7] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the increasing expectations for the resumption of government bond trading following the joint meeting of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank in early September, highlighting the need for a stable funding injection for banks [2][3][58] - The resumption of government bond trading is seen as beneficial for enhancing the stability of banks' asset-liability management, especially given the current pressures on deposit duration and interest rate risks [3][58] - The report emphasizes that while there is a necessity for the resumption of government bond trading, it is not deemed extremely urgent at this stage [57] Summary by Sections 1. Background of Government Bond Trading - Government bond trading was officially launched in August 2024 but was suspended in January 2025 due to market conditions [14][30] 2. Operation Methods Before Resumption - The central bank previously employed a "buy and lend" strategy for government bonds, impacting its balance sheet and liquidity management [22][26] 3. Reasons for Suspension Earlier This Year - The central bank suspended government bond purchases to avoid exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and market volatility, as the broad interest rates were declining too rapidly [30][34] 4. Three Conditions for Resumption - The report outlines three main conditions for the resumption of government bond trading, focusing on macro-prudential assessments, interest rate changes, and market supply-demand dynamics [37][41] 5. Bank Perspective on Resumption - The resumption of government bond trading is crucial for banks to manage their asset-liability structures effectively, especially in light of the pressures on deposit durations and the need for stable funding sources [58]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities for banks in China under a low interest rate environment, emphasizing the need for effective asset-liability management to ensure sustainable and stable operations in the banking sector [4]. Group 1: Positive Changes in Asset-Liability Management - The pricing behavior in the deposit market is gradually becoming more standardized, with the potential for a wider downward adjustment in deposit interest rates. Since the establishment of the market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit rates in 2022, banks have regularly lowered the upper limit of deposit rates, leading to a notable decrease in the average company deposit interest rate by 14 basis points to 1.68% in 2024 [6]. - The implementation of self-regulatory mechanisms has introduced measures to standardize deposit market pricing behaviors, such as prohibiting high-interest deposit solicitation and establishing a deposit bidding rate reporting mechanism [6]. Group 2: Challenges in Loan Market - The irrational competition in the loan market is expected to converge, with a potential slowdown in the downward trend of loan interest rates. From December 2019 to March 2025, the 1-year and 5-year LPRs decreased by 105 and 120 basis points, respectively, while the average interest rate on newly issued loans fell by 200 basis points, indicating excessive downward adjustments by banks [7]. - Regulatory authorities are intensifying efforts to manage "involution" in the banking sector, urging banks to set reasonable loan interest rates based on risk pricing principles. This includes ensuring that personal housing and consumer loan rates do not fall below certain thresholds [7].

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company reported an operating income of 65.92 billion yuan and a net profit of 24.74 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the total assets of the company reached 7,238.6 billion yuan, a 4.0% increase from the end of the previous year [2] - The total loan amount was 4,084.1 billion yuan, up 3.8% year-on-year, with the basic loan amount (excluding discounts) at 3,991.1 billion yuan, increasing by 5.6% [2] - The total liabilities amounted to 6,641.4 billion yuan, a 4.3% increase, with deposits reaching 4,253.2 billion yuan, up 5.4% [2] Financial Performance - The company has optimized its asset-liability structure, with the proportion of basic loans in total assets increasing by 0.8 percentage points to 55.1% [2] - The cost of deposits improved by 34 basis points year-on-year, with corporate and retail deposit costs improving by 36 basis points and 32 basis points respectively [2] - The net interest margin remained stable at 1.40%, unchanged from the first quarter [2] Asset Quality - As of June 30, 2025, the non-performing loan ratio was 1.25%, unchanged from the end of the previous year, with a provision coverage ratio of 172.47% [3] - The loan provision ratio stood at 2.15%, and the attention rate improved by 0.04 percentage points to 1.80% [3] - The overdue rate improved by 0.07 percentage points to 1.95%, while the capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, and core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio were 13.53%, 11.55%, and 9.49% respectively, continuing to meet regulatory requirements [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Profit attributable to equity holders increased by 16.8% to HK$38.2 billion, with ROE rising to 11.6% [2] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company actively managed assets and liabilities, achieving stable NIM performance while expanding fee income due to recovery in capital markets and the tourism industry [3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that the global political and economic landscape is undergoing significant transformation, with uncertainties regarding interest rate cuts in major economies [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing risk control, solidifying banking infrastructure, and expanding earning sources as part of its globalization strategy within the BOC Group [2] - The management emphasized the importance of transforming growth momentum and risk management in the banking industry moving forward [4] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the complex and severe operating environment but highlighted the effectiveness of recent economic stimulus policies in boosting social confidence and supporting economic recovery [4] Other Important Information - The company is currently controlling operating expenses while strengthening risk management [3] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about new shareholders return arrangement - Management received congratulations on excellent results, and the question pertained to the new shareholders return arrangement [6]