意见领袖 | 莫开伟 据近日国金证券发布的研究报告明确提出，2026年居民部门的定期存款到期规模约为70万亿，于是网上 对2026年居民巨额到期定期存款到底向哪儿搬家，讨论热度颇高，并发出了"天量存款到期谁接住了泼 天富贵"等感叹。 这确实是一个值得关注的金融话题，因为随着存款利率降至低位、部分长期限高收益存款产品下架，居 民超额储蓄资金"搬家"的可能性明显提升。尤其是各类商业银行更是对到期存款流向表示出极大关注， 甚至更产生不少担忧。 毕竟，对商业银行而言，70万亿元到期定期存款流向事关重大，会产生诸多方面的影响：一是事关银行 资产负债规模的培减，若大量到期定期存款分流到股市、债市和其他金融投资领域，商业银行短期内资 产负债规模就会停滞不前，对商业银行做大做强带来一定拖累。二是影响信贷投放规模增减，若大量到 期定期存款分流到其他投资领域，则银行信贷资源来源短期内会呈枯萎趋势，直接影响央行适度宽松货 币信贷政策的实施，加大企业和居民融资难困局破解难度，实体企业发展受到影响，对我国经济增长带 来负面影响，更为对"十五五"开局之年造成一定阴影。四是影响商业银行社会形象和声誉，若到期定期 存款大幅从银行体系内分流， ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the banking sector is experiencing a stabilization in net interest margins and an improvement in fee income, with all state-owned banks reporting double-digit profit growth [3] - The liquidity in the interbank market has shown less volatility compared to the same periods in 2023 and 2024, with a seasonal easing of funds observed in October due to supportive monetary policy tools and limited government bond issuance [12][15] - The report anticipates that the issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) will stabilize around 1.6% in December, with potential downward pressure requiring unexpected liquidity injections from the central bank [20][22] Summary by Sections 1. Interbank Liquidity Performance Review - Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, the interbank funding environment has been notably stable, with the DR007-OMO rate showing less fluctuation than in previous years [12] - The issuance of interbank CDs saw a significant increase in October, with rates slightly rising but returning to historical lows by November [13][15] 2. Monitoring of Key Liquidity Indicators - From October to November, the usage of interbank CD quotas by major national banks decreased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a potential slowdown in net financing growth for state-owned banks [16] - The NSFR (Net Stable Funding Ratio) for large banks was recorded at 107.09%, slightly higher than the same period in 2024, attributed to lower credit issuance compared to last year [23] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with significant upcoming deposit maturities and potential for margin improvement, specifically recommending Chongqing Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Bank of Communications [29] - Additionally, it advises attention to city commercial banks that are likely to benefit from improved fixed asset investment, such as Jiangsu Bank, Qilu Bank, and Qingdao Bank [29]

Group 1: Financial Performance - As of September 2025, the total assets of Lanzhou Bank reached CNY 523.36 billion, an increase of 7.62% from the beginning of the year [2] - Total liabilities amounted to CNY 482.54 billion, growing by 7.14% year-to-date [2] - Loans and advances issued were CNY 260.47 billion, reflecting a growth of 6.15% [2] - Deposits received totaled CNY 378.25 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 6.2% [2] Group 2: Loan and Deposit Management - The bank's personal loan growth is primarily driven by consumer credit needs, particularly for car purchases and home renovations [2] - The loan yield (excluding discounts) was 4.38%, down by 25 basis points from the beginning of the year [3] - The deposit interest rate stood at 2.18%, a decrease of 29 basis points year-to-date [3] - The net interest margin was 1.38%, down by 5 basis points compared to the start of the year [3] Group 3: Investment and Risk Management - The bank's investment in interbank wealth management primarily involves major state-owned banks and national joint-stock commercial banks [2] - All financial investments are classified as normal assets, adhering to a prudent investment philosophy [2] - The underlying assets of wealth management, trust plans, and asset management plans are mainly standardized bonds rated AA+ or above, with no involvement in credit-like assets [2] Group 4: Capital and Strategic Planning - In 2024, the bank issued CNY 3 billion in subordinated debt and CNY 5 billion in perpetual bonds [3] - The bank is actively exploring various feasible methods to strengthen its capital base [3] - The strategic planning is conducted on a five-year basis, with the current plan nearing completion and a new round of strategic planning underway [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [7] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the increasing expectations for the resumption of government bond trading following the joint meeting of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank in early September, highlighting the need for a stable funding injection for banks [2][3][58] - The resumption of government bond trading is seen as beneficial for enhancing the stability of banks' asset-liability management, especially given the current pressures on deposit duration and interest rate risks [3][58] - The report emphasizes that while there is a necessity for the resumption of government bond trading, it is not deemed extremely urgent at this stage [57] Summary by Sections 1. Background of Government Bond Trading - Government bond trading was officially launched in August 2024 but was suspended in January 2025 due to market conditions [14][30] 2. Operation Methods Before Resumption - The central bank previously employed a "buy and lend" strategy for government bonds, impacting its balance sheet and liquidity management [22][26] 3. Reasons for Suspension Earlier This Year - The central bank suspended government bond purchases to avoid exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and market volatility, as the broad interest rates were declining too rapidly [30][34] 4. Three Conditions for Resumption - The report outlines three main conditions for the resumption of government bond trading, focusing on macro-prudential assessments, interest rate changes, and market supply-demand dynamics [37][41] 5. Bank Perspective on Resumption - The resumption of government bond trading is crucial for banks to manage their asset-liability structures effectively, especially in light of the pressures on deposit durations and the need for stable funding sources [58]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities for banks in China under a low interest rate environment, emphasizing the need for effective asset-liability management to ensure sustainable and stable operations in the banking sector [4]. Group 1: Positive Changes in Asset-Liability Management - The pricing behavior in the deposit market is gradually becoming more standardized, with the potential for a wider downward adjustment in deposit interest rates. Since the establishment of the market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit rates in 2022, banks have regularly lowered the upper limit of deposit rates, leading to a notable decrease in the average company deposit interest rate by 14 basis points to 1.68% in 2024 [6]. - The implementation of self-regulatory mechanisms has introduced measures to standardize deposit market pricing behaviors, such as prohibiting high-interest deposit solicitation and establishing a deposit bidding rate reporting mechanism [6]. Group 2: Challenges in Loan Market - The irrational competition in the loan market is expected to converge, with a potential slowdown in the downward trend of loan interest rates. From December 2019 to March 2025, the 1-year and 5-year LPRs decreased by 105 and 120 basis points, respectively, while the average interest rate on newly issued loans fell by 200 basis points, indicating excessive downward adjustments by banks [7]. - Regulatory authorities are intensifying efforts to manage "involution" in the banking sector, urging banks to set reasonable loan interest rates based on risk pricing principles. This includes ensuring that personal housing and consumer loan rates do not fall below certain thresholds [7].

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company reported an operating income of 65.92 billion yuan and a net profit of 24.74 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the total assets of the company reached 7,238.6 billion yuan, a 4.0% increase from the end of the previous year [2] - The total loan amount was 4,084.1 billion yuan, up 3.8% year-on-year, with the basic loan amount (excluding discounts) at 3,991.1 billion yuan, increasing by 5.6% [2] - The total liabilities amounted to 6,641.4 billion yuan, a 4.3% increase, with deposits reaching 4,253.2 billion yuan, up 5.4% [2] Financial Performance - The company has optimized its asset-liability structure, with the proportion of basic loans in total assets increasing by 0.8 percentage points to 55.1% [2] - The cost of deposits improved by 34 basis points year-on-year, with corporate and retail deposit costs improving by 36 basis points and 32 basis points respectively [2] - The net interest margin remained stable at 1.40%, unchanged from the first quarter [2] Asset Quality - As of June 30, 2025, the non-performing loan ratio was 1.25%, unchanged from the end of the previous year, with a provision coverage ratio of 172.47% [3] - The loan provision ratio stood at 2.15%, and the attention rate improved by 0.04 percentage points to 1.80% [3] - The overdue rate improved by 0.07 percentage points to 1.95%, while the capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, and core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio were 13.53%, 11.55%, and 9.49% respectively, continuing to meet regulatory requirements [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Profit attributable to equity holders increased by 16.8% to HK$38.2 billion, with ROE rising to 11.6% [2] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company actively managed assets and liabilities, achieving stable NIM performance while expanding fee income due to recovery in capital markets and the tourism industry [3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that the global political and economic landscape is undergoing significant transformation, with uncertainties regarding interest rate cuts in major economies [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing risk control, solidifying banking infrastructure, and expanding earning sources as part of its globalization strategy within the BOC Group [2] - The management emphasized the importance of transforming growth momentum and risk management in the banking industry moving forward [4] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the complex and severe operating environment but highlighted the effectiveness of recent economic stimulus policies in boosting social confidence and supporting economic recovery [4] Other Important Information - The company is currently controlling operating expenses while strengthening risk management [3] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about new shareholders return arrangement - Management received congratulations on excellent results, and the question pertained to the new shareholders return arrangement [6]