Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - In January 2026, personal deposits in financial institutions decreased by 3.37 trillion yuan year-on-year, while corporate deposits increased by 2.80 trillion yuan, government deposits increased by 1.79 trillion yuan, and non-bank deposits increased by 2.84 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of deposit migration [12][13] - The net financing of government bonds under the social financing (社融) measure increased by 0.28 trillion yuan year-on-year, but the larger increase in government deposits suggests a potential slowdown in fiscal spending [12] - The overall expansion of bank assets and liabilities is supported by the recovery of interbank asset-liability chains, but the decrease in medium- and long-term loans indicates that the real estate sector still needs to recover [19] Summary by Sections Liabilities - In January 2026, personal deposits saw a significant year-on-year decrease, confirming the trend of deposit migration, while corporate and non-bank deposits increased by a total of 5.63 trillion yuan, which is much larger than the decrease in personal deposits [12][13] - Large banks experienced a greater increase in non-bank deposits compared to small banks, indicating that some deposits from small banks may have migrated to large banks due to stronger custody services [13] - The "other" category in the funding sources of the credit balance sheet decreased by 2.39 trillion yuan year-on-year, likely due to increased interbank certificates of deposit and bank repurchase lending [12] Assets - Personal loans increased year-on-year, primarily driven by short-term loans and medium- to long-term operating loans, while medium- to long-term consumer loans decreased by 0.16 trillion yuan, possibly due to the sluggish recovery in real estate sales [17] - Corporate loans decreased year-on-year, mainly due to a reduction in bill financing by 0.36 trillion yuan, although short-term corporate loans increased by 0.34 trillion yuan [17] - Investment in debt and equity increased by 0.37 trillion yuan year-on-year, aligning with trends of fiscal expansion and non-bank balance sheet growth [17] Overall Analysis - The January 2026 data indicates a significant increase in fiscal financing and a recovery in interbank asset-liability chains, which temporarily supports the expansion of bank assets and liabilities [19] - However, the decrease in medium- and long-term loans suggests ongoing challenges in the real estate sector, and the support from non-bank sectors for bank asset-liability expansion may weaken as high-interest deposits mature [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market in March 2026 is expected to be relatively loose, but attention should be paid to the asset - liability situation of banks. Factors such as high maturity volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit, possible "rushing for volume" of bank credit at the end of the quarter, demand for improving liquidity regulatory indicators, impact of foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus on bank asset - liability behavior, and potential regulatory control over bank inter - bank liability behavior need to be monitored [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: From February 24 - 28, 2026, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 61.14 billion yuan, and the treasury time deposit matured at 15 billion yuan. On February 25, the central bank's medium - term lending facility (MLF) had a net injection of 30 billion yuan. From March 2 - 6, 2026, 152.5 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases will mature. In March, the maturity amounts of 3M and 6M repurchase agreements are 100 billion yuan and 60 billion yuan respectively, and the MLF maturity amount is 45 billion yuan [2][6]. - **Funding Rates**: From February 24 - 27, 2026, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.37% and 1.43% respectively, up 3.9 and 2.4 basis points compared with February 9 - 13, 2026. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.51% and 1.57% respectively, down 1.1 and 1.0 basis points compared with February 9 - 13, 2026 [6]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From February 23 - March 1, 2026, the government bond net financing was about 19.036 billion yuan, 52.33 billion yuan less than that from February 9 - 15, 2026. From March 2 - 8, 2026, the government bond net financing is expected to be about 21.2 billion yuan, with the net financing of national bonds at about - 10.5 billion yuan and that of local government bonds at about 31.7 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yield**: As of February 27, 2026, the 1M and 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit yields were 1.4891% and 1.5550% respectively, down 6.6 basis points and basically unchanged compared with February 13, 2026. The 1Y yield was 1.5775%, basically unchanged compared with February 13, 2026 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From February 23 - March 1, 2026, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about - 212.4 billion yuan. From March 2 - 8, 2026, the maturity repayment amount is expected to be 58.8 billion yuan, with a slightly lower maturity renewal pressure. The maturity scale in March is about 3.59 trillion yuan, an increase of about 0.64 trillion yuan year - on - year and about 1.73 trillion yuan month - on - month [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Bond Market Leverage**: From February 24 - 27, 2026, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.49%, slightly lower than the average of 107.79% from February 9 - 14, 2026 [9]. - **Pure Bond Fund Duration**: On February 27, 2026, the median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 4.47 years, up 0.07 years from February 13, 2026, at the 80.7% quantile since the beginning of 2022. The median duration of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 2.06 years, up 0.40 years from February 13, 2026, at the 80.9% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [9].