铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性 精废价差小幅回落 ADC12-A00价差短期走弱 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 保太ADC12-A00 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 100 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and fluctuates upward, with a neutral - to - strong strength analysis. The short - term scrap - refined price difference and ADC12 - A00 price difference are strengthening. Before the holiday, the price of cast aluminum alloy remained relatively strong, reaching a high of 21,865 yuan/ton. The short - term price may show a high - level oscillation due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum and weakening demand [2][6] - As of December 26, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social inventory decreased by 0.15 million tons to 12.91 million tons compared with the previous week. From December 1 - 28, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.928 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 23.411 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In 2026, the policy subsidy will be more targeted, benefiting mid - to - high - end cars [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Quantity and Price - The document presents data such as the price difference between different contracts, capital precipitation, trading volume, and holding volume, but no specific conclusions are drawn from these data [9] 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the cast aluminum alloy inter - period spread cost calculation (inside the warehouse receipt system), the total cost is 104 yuan/ton, including fixed costs of 14.13 yuan/ton and floating costs of 90.25 yuan/ton [12] 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The market's actual spot quotation fluctuates around the Baotai price. The spot price is 22,000 yuan/ton, and the total cost of the warehouse receipt, including storage, handling fees, and capital costs, is 22,961.3 yuan/ton [14] 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [16][20] 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has strengthened. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy remains flat, while the monthly operating rate has declined. The current cost calculation of ADC12 shows a loss. The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has slightly increased, while the social inventory has decreased, and the import window for cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [30][35][40] 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: Fuel vehicles are in the year - end sales push phase, which has an impact on die - casting consumption. The document also presents the production data of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances [64]

Report Information - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: December 21, 2025 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Group - Analysts: Wang Rong (Chief Analyst/Assistant Director), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, aluminum prices first declined and then rose, with the overall center of gravity shifting upward. Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated at a high level, reaching a high of 21,395 on the night of Friday. On the supply side, as the weather turns cold in winter, the output of social scrap aluminum gradually decreases, the market circulation of goods tightens, and holders increase their price support and reluctance to sell. Near the Spring Festival stockpiling, some enterprises face difficulties in replenishing stocks, and their in-plant raw material inventories are low. On the demand side, the demand in the automotive industry has weakened marginally. Constrained by insufficient orders, the operating rate of downstream die-casting factories has declined, and they mainly purchase on a just-in-time basis. Overall, the shortage pattern of scrap aluminum supply remains unchanged, and there are still constraints on imports and recycling. The rigid cost provides some support for prices, but the lack of demand weakens the upward momentum of prices. In the short term, prices may fluctuate at a high level. [6] - As of December 19, the combined inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.06 million tons from the previous week to 13.02 million tons, and the visible inventory remained at a high level. From December 1 - 14, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 764,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 2%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 22.247 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Due to the continued boom in the automotive market in December last year, the automotive market showed weak performance this December under the high base effect, and the demand is gradually under pressure. At the same time, in some regions, the national subsidy funds are relatively scarce, which has created a large overdraft effect, and some consumers face the absence of subsidy policies. The market still has good expectations for automobile consumption next year. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that next year, the implementation of the "two new" policies will be optimized, which means that the national subsidy policy for consumer goods will continue to be promoted. [6] Summary by Directory Trading End - Volume and Price - Relevant data on trading volume, open interest, and capital precipitation are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [9] Trading End - Arbitrage - **Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation**: For the cast aluminum alloy inter - period spread cost calculation (within the warehouse receipt system), taking the AD2601 and AD2602 contracts as an example, the fixed cost is 9.42 yuan/ton, the floating cost is 90.43 yuan/ton, and the total cost is 100 yuan/ton [12] - **Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation**: The market's actual spot quotation fluctuates around the Baotai price. Taking the Baotai Group's latest quotation of 21,200 yuan/ton as a reference, after calculating various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs, the warehouse receipt cost is 22,138.8 yuan/ton [13][14] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - **Scrap Aluminum Production and Inventory**: Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [16][20] - **Scrap Aluminum Price**: The prices of waste automobile wheels, waste motorcycle wheels, and broken aluminum in different regions are presented, and the price trends of Shanghai machine - made aluminum and broken aluminum in Foshan are shown [24][26] Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of Baotai ADC12 has increased, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has strengthened. The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns [30][35] - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy remained flat, while the monthly operating rate declined. The monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy and its regional proportion are presented [40][44][45] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and it is currently estimated to be in a loss state. The cost structure and profit trends of ADC12 are shown [46][47][50] - **Inventory and Import**: The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased slightly, while the social inventory has decreased. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [51][56] - **Recycled Aluminum Rod**: The production, inventory, and their regional proportions of recycled aluminum rods are presented [59][60][61][62] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: Fuel - powered vehicles are in the year - end sales rush stage, which is transmitted to die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel - powered vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are presented, as well as the year - on - year change in PPI of auto parts manufacturing and the inventory warning index of automobiles [65][66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The casting aluminum alloy market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating at high levels. The shortage of scrap aluminum supply persists, providing some support for prices, but the weakening demand limits further price increases. In the short term, prices are likely to remain in a high - level oscillation range [6]. - From the micro - fundamental perspective, as of December 14, the combined inventory of alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.07 million tons to 13.12 million tons compared to the previous week, with high - level visible inventory. The automotive market demand is under pressure, with the retail volume of the national passenger car market from December 1 - 7 showing a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a month - on - month decrease of 8% [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The trading volume, open interest, and capital precipitation data are presented graphically, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - The calculation of the inter - period spread cost of casting aluminum alloy involves various fees such as transaction fees, storage fees, and capital costs. For the AD2601 - AD2602 spread on December 12, 2025, the fixed cost is 8.82 yuan/ton, and the floating cost is 90.89 yuan/ton, with a total cost of 100 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The spot - futures arbitrage cost calculation of casting aluminum alloy takes into account factors such as spot price, storage fees, capital costs, and trading fees. Based on the current situation, the spot price is 21,200 yuan/ton, and the calculated warehouse receipt cost is 22,140.6 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Import volume is also at a high level, with relatively fast year - on - year growth [16][20]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has increased, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has widened. The regional spread of casting aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly start - up rate of recycled aluminum is flat, while the monthly start - up rate has declined. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy has its own distribution characteristics by region. Currently, the ADC12 cost is mainly composed of scrap aluminum and is estimated to be in a loss state [30][40][47]. - The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy has slightly increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The import window for casting aluminum alloy is currently closed [52][57]. - For recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data are provided, along with their respective proportion distribution by region [60][62]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: Fuel - powered vehicles are in the year - end sales push stage, which is transmitted to the die - casting consumption market [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of cast aluminum alloy continued to strengthen, breaking through the 21,000 mark during the week and reaching a record high since listing. Considering the end - of - year car purchase tax discount policy expiration, consumer enthusiasm for car - buying will remain high, and car sales are expected to improve further. In the short - term, the price may fluctuate, but in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to rise [2]. - The waste aluminum production is at a high level, and the social inventory is decreasing. The import of waste aluminum is also at a high level with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [16][19]. - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been slightly adjusted upwards, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum shows fluctuations. The weekly and monthly operating rates of cast aluminum alloy have declined [31][41]. - Terminal consumption: Fuel vehicles are in the year - end sales push stage, which will be transmitted to the die - casting consumption [66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The price of cast aluminum alloy continued to strengthen this week, breaking through 21,000 during the week and reaching a record high since listing. As of November 7, the combined inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social inventories increased by 0.05 million tons to 13.27 million tons compared with the previous week, and the visible inventory remained at a high level [2]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2511.shf and AD2512.shf contracts, the futures prices are 20,925 and 20,930 respectively, with a spread of 5. The fixed cost is 4.76 yuan/ton, and the floating cost is 0.00 yuan/ton, with a total cost of 5 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy is 20,900 yuan/ton. Considering various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and handling fees, the warehouse receipt cost is 21,117.8 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply End - Waste Aluminum - The waste aluminum production is at a high level, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. The import of waste aluminum is at a high level, and the year - on - year growth rate remains relatively fast. For example, in September 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 155,400 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 17.69% [16][19]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been slightly adjusted upwards, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum shows fluctuations. The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly and monthly operating rates of cast aluminum alloy have declined. The production of recycled aluminum alloy in October was 645,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.01%. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of waste aluminum, and currently it is around the break - even point. The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The import window of cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [31][41][47][52][57]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Fuel vehicles are in the year - end sales push stage, which will be transmitted to the die - casting consumption. In October, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.387 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 19.395 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9% [2][66].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the upcoming listing of casting aluminum alloy futures on June 10 at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, highlighting the significance of this event in the market [1] Group 2 - The article provides insights into the casting aluminum alloy industry chain and the factors influencing its prices, indicating a comprehensive overview for investors [1]