铸造铝合金：跟随铝价，价格震荡上行 铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性偏强 精废价差短期震荡上行 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 佛山破碎生铝精废价差 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 ADC12-A00价差短 ...

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：成本刚性，价格高位震荡 ◆ 本周铝价先抑后扬，整体呈现重心上移，铸造铝合金价格高位震荡，周五夜盘 触及21395高点。供给端，冬季天气转冷下社会废铝产出量逐渐减少，市场流通 货源收紧，持货商挺价惜售增加。临近春节备库，部分企业面临补库困难，厂 内原料库存偏低。需求端，汽车行业需求边际走弱，受制于订单不足下游压铸 厂开工率下滑，以刚需采购为主。整体来看，废铝供应紧缺格局不改，进口及 回收约束依然存在，刚性成本对价格形成一定托底，但需求走弱下价格进一步 上行动力不足，短期价格或呈现高位震荡。 ◆ 从当前周频的微观基本面来看，截至12月19日，铝合金锭厂库+社库较前周去 库0.06万吨至13. ...

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：供需双弱，价格高位震荡 强弱分析：中性 精废价差短期震荡 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 佛山破碎生铝精废价差 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 ADC12-A00价差短期走强 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of cast aluminum alloy continued to strengthen, breaking through the 21,000 mark during the week and reaching a record high since listing. Considering the end - of - year car purchase tax discount policy expiration, consumer enthusiasm for car - buying will remain high, and car sales are expected to improve further. In the short - term, the price may fluctuate, but in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to rise [2]. - The waste aluminum production is at a high level, and the social inventory is decreasing. The import of waste aluminum is also at a high level with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [16][19]. - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been slightly adjusted upwards, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum shows fluctuations. The weekly and monthly operating rates of cast aluminum alloy have declined [31][41]. - Terminal consumption: Fuel vehicles are in the year - end sales push stage, which will be transmitted to the die - casting consumption [66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The price of cast aluminum alloy continued to strengthen this week, breaking through 21,000 during the week and reaching a record high since listing. As of November 7, the combined inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social inventories increased by 0.05 million tons to 13.27 million tons compared with the previous week, and the visible inventory remained at a high level [2]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2511.shf and AD2512.shf contracts, the futures prices are 20,925 and 20,930 respectively, with a spread of 5. The fixed cost is 4.76 yuan/ton, and the floating cost is 0.00 yuan/ton, with a total cost of 5 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy is 20,900 yuan/ton. Considering various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and handling fees, the warehouse receipt cost is 21,117.8 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply End - Waste Aluminum - The waste aluminum production is at a high level, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. The import of waste aluminum is at a high level, and the year - on - year growth rate remains relatively fast. For example, in September 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 155,400 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 17.69% [16][19]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been slightly adjusted upwards, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum shows fluctuations. The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly and monthly operating rates of cast aluminum alloy have declined. The production of recycled aluminum alloy in October was 645,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.01%. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of waste aluminum, and currently it is around the break - even point. The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The import window of cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [31][41][47][52][57]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Fuel vehicles are in the year - end sales push stage, which will be transmitted to the die - casting consumption. In October, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.387 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 19.395 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9% [2][66].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the upcoming listing of casting aluminum alloy futures on June 10 at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, highlighting the significance of this event in the market [1] Group 2 - The article provides insights into the casting aluminum alloy industry chain and the factors influencing its prices, indicating a comprehensive overview for investors [1]