锂电新周期来了？ 具体来看，龙头股盐湖股份（000792.SZ）、雅化集团（002497.SZ）业绩预增，赣锋锂业 （002460.SZ）预计实现扭亏。盐湖股份预告归母净利润82.9亿元至88.9亿元，同比大增77.78%至 90.65%，其业绩增长的核心驱动力均指向两大主要产品氯化钾和碳酸锂的价格上升。 锂盐龙头赣锋锂业预计2025年实现扭亏，归母净利润达11亿元至16.5亿元，上年同期为亏损20.74亿元。 雅化集团业绩预喜，公司预计2025年归母净利润为6亿元至6.80亿元，同比增长133.36%~164.47%。华友 钴业（603799.SH）预计实现归母净利润58.5亿元至64.5亿元，同比增长40.8%至55.24%。 2025年锂电产业链迎来业绩拐点。据第一财经记者不完全统计，28家已披露业绩预告的锂电企业中，11 家预增，6家扭亏，其余为续亏和首亏。锂盐、碳酸锂、六氟磷酸锂等关键锂电材料环节的龙头企业， 普遍在去年第四季度实现业绩环比大增，主要系核心产品价格上涨叠加新能源汽车与储能需求保持增 长。 过去几年，锂电材料行业经历了跌价去库存的周期底部，企业盈利能力大幅回暖，表明锂电周期已步入 复苏 ...

来源：中信建投证券研究 文|朱玥 许琳 任佳玮 鉴于本轮锂电周期与上轮光伏周期本质驱动力和截至目前的剧情演绎高度相似，本篇报告系统性地复盘 光伏大周期是为本轮锂电之参考，主要结论有三：1、市场多言涨价影响需求，但实际从未影响，最终 演绎的结果是量价齐升，中上游向下游电站要利润，全产业链通胀。2、产能刚性环节的价格是需求的 风向标，最终价格回落是由于产能投放而非需求萎缩。3、股价层面：底部估值抬升之后，市场可能会 对需求产生怀疑导致板块阶段性纠结，但最终因产业链量价齐升股价同步跟随，价格弹性大的环节表现 最优。 2020年光伏周期复盘：多言涨价影响需求，但实际从未影响，更多的情况是量价齐升，瓶颈环节几乎拿 走行业大部分利润 本轮由储能驱动的锂电周期和上一轮光伏周期高度相似，截至目前几乎有着近乎一致的剧情复刻。"平 价上网"之后，下游电站的超额利润推动了需求的非线性增长，且电站环节由"补贴驱动的工程项目"变 身"经济性驱动的电力资产"，大量国央企及社会资本涌入，同步伴随着国内利率下行周期启动，量价齐 升，对紧缺环节造成挤兑。 产能刚性的光伏硅料和玻璃几乎拿走产业链大部分利润（本文以2021-2022年的硅料为例） ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，考虑2026年碳酸锂供给增量市场一致预期落在30-50万吨， 预计碳酸锂价格可能在15-30万元/吨之间达到均衡，具体高度则需要看碳酸锂供给增量具体多少、中间 环节的累库效应，以及需求是否进一步超预期。股价层面，底部估值抬升之后，市场可能会对需求产生 怀疑导致板块阶段性纠结，但最终因产业链量价齐升股价同步跟随，价格弹性大的环节表现最优。该行 建议首选紧缺瓶颈环节，配置核心龙头。 中信建投主要观点如下： 2020年光伏周期复盘：多言涨价影响需求，但实际从未影响，更多的情况是量价齐升，瓶颈环节几乎拿 走行业大部分利润 本轮由储能驱动的锂电周期和上一轮光伏周期高度相似，截至目前几乎有着近乎一致的剧情复刻。"平 价上网"之后，下游电站的超额利润推动了需求的非线性增长，且电站环节由"补贴驱动的工程项目"变 身"经济性驱动的电力资产"，大量国央企及社会资本涌入，同步伴随着国内利率下行周期启动，量价齐 升，对紧缺环节造成挤兑。 产能刚性的光伏硅料和玻璃几乎拿走产业链大部分利润(本文以2021-2022年的硅料为例)，价格上不言 顶。在这过程中市场多言涨价影响需求，但实际从未影响，持续 ...

Group 1 - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a new growth cycle, with major manufacturers starting large-scale equipment tenders and receiving hundreds of GWh in orders, indicating a strong demand outlook [1] - By 2026, the total new lithium battery production capacity is expected to exceed 1 TWh, with many equipment manufacturers anticipating record-high new orders [1] - Major manufacturers are securing substantial orders for materials and new production capacities, mirroring strategies from the 2020-2021 period, with expectations of significant demand growth over the next few years [1] Group 2 - CATL is expected to enhance its market share in the lithium battery sector by 2026, particularly in the energy storage segment, following the resolution of its capacity bottlenecks [2] - The profitability of the entire supply chain is anticipated to improve amid rising prices in the upstream market, with market expectations for CATL's 2026 performance likely to be revised upwards [2] - The current cycle of capital expenditure (capex) is expected to benefit lithium battery equipment manufacturers, locking in high growth for the next 2-3 years, while solid-state battery research will advance significantly by 2026 [2] Group 3 - The CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) has shown strong performance, with significant increases in stocks such as Guangdong Hongda, Wanhua Chemical, and Tianqi Lithium [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index account for 45.31% of the index, indicating a concentrated investment in key players [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the lithium battery industry, emphasizing the price and stock performance trends during the last lithium cycle [8]. - It notes that the price of lithium carbonate and other materials has shown significant fluctuations, impacting the profitability of companies within the supply chain [12][19][23]. - The report indicates that the stock prices of major lithium battery companies peaked in late 2021, with a notable lag behind the price peaks of raw materials [39]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Review - The previous lithium cycle saw a dramatic increase in prices, with 6F prices rising from 70,000 CNY/ton in mid-2020 to 425,000 CNY/ton by August 2021, while lithium carbonate prices surged to 500,000 CNY/ton by early 2022 [12]. - The report discusses the impact of long-term contracts on pricing stability, noting that leading companies maintained higher prices even as market prices began to decline [12]. Section 2: Price Trends of Key Materials - Iron lithium processing fees increased significantly from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022, with a total rise of approximately 20,000 CNY/ton, before stabilizing and then declining in 2023 [19]. - The report details the price trends of negative electrode materials, indicating a price increase of 10,000 CNY/ton from H2 2021 to Q1 2022 due to supply constraints [23]. - Wet-process separator prices saw a modest increase of 0.2-0.3 CNY/sq.m from H2 2021 to H1 2022, with a subsequent decline starting in Q1 2023 [26]. Section 3: Battery Cost and Profitability - The report estimates that the costs for iron lithium and ternary batteries were 0.77 and 0.91 CNY/Wh respectively in Q2 2022, reflecting an increase from Q1 2021 [31]. - It notes that battery companies were able to pass on cost increases to automakers starting in Q2 2022, leading to stable unit profitability despite earlier cost pressures [31]. Section 4: Stock Performance Review - The report provides a detailed review of stock performance across key companies in the lithium battery sector from 2019 to 2022, highlighting significant gains during the electric vehicle boom [37]. - It notes that the stock prices of most companies peaked in November 2021, with a subsequent decline observed in the following year [39]. - The report emphasizes that the price peaks of raw materials often lagged behind stock price peaks, indicating a complex relationship between market dynamics and stock performance [39].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic lithium carbonate market is experiencing a rapid price increase due to rising costs, demand pull, and emotional factors, with futures prices approaching 95,000 [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - In October, domestic lithium carbonate demand reached 120,000 tons, an 8% month-on-month increase, while inventory dropped below 120,000 tons, reducing available days from over 50 to less than 30 [2] - The lithium battery industry is projected to require 1.8 million tons of lithium resources (LCE equivalent) by 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 27% [3] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - Major domestic lithium salt companies indicated that if lithium carbonate demand grows by 30% in 2026, prices could potentially exceed 150,000, which is a significant driver of current market sentiment [5] - Recent trends show a slight decrease in lithium carbonate warehouse receipts, while the ratio of virtual to actual transactions is steadily increasing, indicating potential delivery pressure in the future [6]

Core Insights - Energy storage is expected to drive a new round of lithium battery cycle, with structural shortages and price surges in related materials [1] - Companies such as DLF, Tianqi Materials, Putailai, and Hunan Youneng have seen significant stock price increases, with DLF rising nearly 40% and others around 20% [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The demand for energy storage is anticipated to replace electrification as a key growth driver in the lithium battery sector [1] - Structural shortages in lithium battery materials are leading to price increases across the industry [1] Group 2: Company Performance - A notable performance turnaround is observed, with net profits increasing by 1059% year-on-year in the first three quarters [1] - The company has achieved a 100% self-sufficiency rate in infrared detectors and is rapidly increasing its market penetration in the automotive pre-installation sector [1] - Analysts project a 40% premium potential for the company based on its comprehensive industry chain layout [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of timely and relevant research reports in identifying investment opportunities, particularly in the context of the energy storage and lithium battery materials sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Energy storage is expected to drive a new lithium battery cycle, with structural shortages and price increases already observed in related materials [1]. - The article highlights a significant increase in net profit for a company, with a year-on-year surge of 1059% in the first three quarters, indicating a clear performance turnaround [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Companies such as Duofu Duo have seen stock prices rise nearly 40%, while Tian Ci Materials and Putai Lai have experienced close to 20% increases, showcasing the potential for investment in the lithium battery materials chain [1]. - The article suggests that the full industry chain layout of a specific company is outperforming competitors, with a 100% self-sufficiency rate in infrared detectors and accelerated penetration in the automotive pre-installation market, leading to a 40% premium space suggested by institutions [2].

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged significantly, indicating a new cycle in the lithium battery industry, driven by supply-demand imbalances and increased demand from downstream sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate doubled from 61,000 CNY/ton on October 8 to 124,000 CNY/ton on November 10, marking a 103% increase [1]. - The Wind lithium hexafluorophosphate index rose from approximately 5,300 points in early August to a peak of 10,031.09 points on November 10, the highest since late August 2022 [1]. - As of November 10, the index closed at 9,734.33, up 2.2% [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium hexafluorophosphate market has shifted from oversupply to undersupply due to structural imbalances in supply and demand [2]. - Previous industry losses led some companies to reduce or halt production, resulting in low overall market inventory [2]. - Increased demand from the power battery and energy storage sectors has provided clear support for demand, while supply growth is constrained by production capacity and cautious expansion plans from manufacturers [2]. Group 3: Impact on Companies - The surge in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices has improved profitability for producers, prompting some companies that previously considered production cuts to resume output [3]. - Conversely, the rising costs of lithium hexafluorophosphate have significantly increased production costs for electrolyte and cell manufacturers [3]. - The current tight supply situation is expected to persist in the short term, but a seasonal decline in demand and the gradual resumption of production capacity may lead to a stabilization of prices in the future [3].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a structural transformation characterized by the simultaneous expansion of high-end production and the contraction of low-end capacity, leading to a competitive elimination phase within the industry [3][4][6]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - As of September, over 20 projects in the lithium battery supply chain have been terminated, suspended, or delayed, with a total investment exceeding 110 billion yuan [2]. - In the first eight months of 2025, 183 new projects were signed or commenced in China's lithium battery industry, with a total investment of approximately 400 billion yuan, focusing on high-end technologies such as high-voltage lithium iron phosphate and high-nickel ternary materials [3]. - The industry is witnessing an accelerated elimination of low-end capacity, particularly in areas with high homogeneity like precursor materials and lithium iron phosphate, due to intensified competition and rising barriers in cost control and environmental regulations [4]. Group 2: Demand and Growth - Demand for energy storage and power batteries remains strong, with energy storage systems accounting for 27% of global battery shipments and over 40% in the lithium iron phosphate segment [6]. - The average battery capacity of pure electric vehicles has increased by 16.4% year-on-year, indicating a release of demand elasticity [6]. - Companies with scale delivery and cost advantages are securing full orders, while those lacking competitiveness may face idle capacity despite being in a high-demand sector [6]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The focus of capital and capacity expansion is shifting towards high-end technologies such as high-voltage lithium iron phosphate, high-nickel ternary, and solid-state batteries, while investment in low-end routes is declining [7]. - The industry is moving away from merely pursuing scale towards establishing technological barriers and product upgrades to avoid price wars [7]. - However, the termination of solid-state battery projects indicates the high barriers and long cycles associated with these technologies, emphasizing the need to address substantial industrialization challenges [8]. Group 4: International Expansion Risks - There is an increasing risk associated with overseas expansion, with projects in Indonesia, the United States, and South Korea frequently being halted, often involving investments of tens of billions to hundreds of billions of dollars [10]. - Uncertainties related to tariffs, subsidy policies, and localization requirements are significantly narrowing the investment return rates for overseas factories [10]. - The year 2025 is seen as a turning point for international expansion, with geopolitical risks becoming a core consideration in investment decisions [10].