上一轮锂电周期的价格和 股价是如何演绎 2025-12-08 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 长江证券研究所电力设备与新能源研究小组 分析师及联系人 分析师 邬博华 分析师 曹海花 分析师 叶之楠 联系人 王晓振 SAC执业证书编号：S0490514040001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490522030001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520090003 SFC执业证书编号：BQK482 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 景气复盘：6F先行，碳酸锂持续，材料依次 02 股价复盘：景气周期看弹性，中期格局为先 目 录 %% research.95579.com 3 01 景气复盘：6F先行，碳酸锂 持续，材料依次 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 01 复盘丨6F：20Q4-22Q1大涨，报表有长单平滑 ➢ 上一轮6F从2020年中的7万开始上涨，2020年底散单价格达到10-12万；2021年8月底在碳酸锂温和上涨至10万的背景下，6F散单大 幅上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic lithium carbonate market is experiencing a rapid price increase due to rising costs, demand pull, and emotional factors, with futures prices approaching 95,000 [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - In October, domestic lithium carbonate demand reached 120,000 tons, an 8% month-on-month increase, while inventory dropped below 120,000 tons, reducing available days from over 50 to less than 30 [2] - The lithium battery industry is projected to require 1.8 million tons of lithium resources (LCE equivalent) by 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 27% [3] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - Major domestic lithium salt companies indicated that if lithium carbonate demand grows by 30% in 2026, prices could potentially exceed 150,000, which is a significant driver of current market sentiment [5] - Recent trends show a slight decrease in lithium carbonate warehouse receipts, while the ratio of virtual to actual transactions is steadily increasing, indicating potential delivery pressure in the future [6]

Core Insights - Energy storage is expected to drive a new round of lithium battery cycle, with structural shortages and price surges in related materials [1] - Companies such as DLF, Tianqi Materials, Putailai, and Hunan Youneng have seen significant stock price increases, with DLF rising nearly 40% and others around 20% [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The demand for energy storage is anticipated to replace electrification as a key growth driver in the lithium battery sector [1] - Structural shortages in lithium battery materials are leading to price increases across the industry [1] Group 2: Company Performance - A notable performance turnaround is observed, with net profits increasing by 1059% year-on-year in the first three quarters [1] - The company has achieved a 100% self-sufficiency rate in infrared detectors and is rapidly increasing its market penetration in the automotive pre-installation sector [1] - Analysts project a 40% premium potential for the company based on its comprehensive industry chain layout [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of timely and relevant research reports in identifying investment opportunities, particularly in the context of the energy storage and lithium battery materials sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Energy storage is expected to drive a new lithium battery cycle, with structural shortages and price increases already observed in related materials [1]. - The article highlights a significant increase in net profit for a company, with a year-on-year surge of 1059% in the first three quarters, indicating a clear performance turnaround [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Companies such as Duofu Duo have seen stock prices rise nearly 40%, while Tian Ci Materials and Putai Lai have experienced close to 20% increases, showcasing the potential for investment in the lithium battery materials chain [1]. - The article suggests that the full industry chain layout of a specific company is outperforming competitors, with a 100% self-sufficiency rate in infrared detectors and accelerated penetration in the automotive pre-installation market, leading to a 40% premium space suggested by institutions [2].

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged significantly, indicating a new cycle in the lithium battery industry, driven by supply-demand imbalances and increased demand from downstream sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate doubled from 61,000 CNY/ton on October 8 to 124,000 CNY/ton on November 10, marking a 103% increase [1]. - The Wind lithium hexafluorophosphate index rose from approximately 5,300 points in early August to a peak of 10,031.09 points on November 10, the highest since late August 2022 [1]. - As of November 10, the index closed at 9,734.33, up 2.2% [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium hexafluorophosphate market has shifted from oversupply to undersupply due to structural imbalances in supply and demand [2]. - Previous industry losses led some companies to reduce or halt production, resulting in low overall market inventory [2]. - Increased demand from the power battery and energy storage sectors has provided clear support for demand, while supply growth is constrained by production capacity and cautious expansion plans from manufacturers [2]. Group 3: Impact on Companies - The surge in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices has improved profitability for producers, prompting some companies that previously considered production cuts to resume output [3]. - Conversely, the rising costs of lithium hexafluorophosphate have significantly increased production costs for electrolyte and cell manufacturers [3]. - The current tight supply situation is expected to persist in the short term, but a seasonal decline in demand and the gradual resumption of production capacity may lead to a stabilization of prices in the future [3].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a structural transformation characterized by the simultaneous expansion of high-end production and the contraction of low-end capacity, leading to a competitive elimination phase within the industry [3][4][6]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - As of September, over 20 projects in the lithium battery supply chain have been terminated, suspended, or delayed, with a total investment exceeding 110 billion yuan [2]. - In the first eight months of 2025, 183 new projects were signed or commenced in China's lithium battery industry, with a total investment of approximately 400 billion yuan, focusing on high-end technologies such as high-voltage lithium iron phosphate and high-nickel ternary materials [3]. - The industry is witnessing an accelerated elimination of low-end capacity, particularly in areas with high homogeneity like precursor materials and lithium iron phosphate, due to intensified competition and rising barriers in cost control and environmental regulations [4]. Group 2: Demand and Growth - Demand for energy storage and power batteries remains strong, with energy storage systems accounting for 27% of global battery shipments and over 40% in the lithium iron phosphate segment [6]. - The average battery capacity of pure electric vehicles has increased by 16.4% year-on-year, indicating a release of demand elasticity [6]. - Companies with scale delivery and cost advantages are securing full orders, while those lacking competitiveness may face idle capacity despite being in a high-demand sector [6]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The focus of capital and capacity expansion is shifting towards high-end technologies such as high-voltage lithium iron phosphate, high-nickel ternary, and solid-state batteries, while investment in low-end routes is declining [7]. - The industry is moving away from merely pursuing scale towards establishing technological barriers and product upgrades to avoid price wars [7]. - However, the termination of solid-state battery projects indicates the high barriers and long cycles associated with these technologies, emphasizing the need to address substantial industrialization challenges [8]. Group 4: International Expansion Risks - There is an increasing risk associated with overseas expansion, with projects in Indonesia, the United States, and South Korea frequently being halted, often involving investments of tens of billions to hundreds of billions of dollars [10]. - Uncertainties related to tariffs, subsidy policies, and localization requirements are significantly narrowing the investment return rates for overseas factories [10]. - The year 2025 is seen as a turning point for international expansion, with geopolitical risks becoming a core consideration in investment decisions [10].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the lithium battery industry and its related sectors, including energy storage and electric vehicles [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Domestic Energy Storage Demand**: The impact of Document 136 on domestic energy storage demand was less than expected, with independent energy storage demand being driven by local policies and project rush installations. The forecast for domestic energy storage demand growth has been revised upward to 10-20% for next year [1][5]. 2. **Global Electric Vehicle Market Growth**: The global electric vehicle market is expected to grow by approximately 20% year-on-year next year, with specific growth rates of 10-20% for China's passenger car retail, 25-30% in Europe, and over 30% for commercial vehicles [1][6]. 3. **Battery Installation Demand**: By 2026, the demand for power batteries is projected to reach around 1.5 TWh, representing a year-on-year growth of over 25% [1][6]. 4. **Global Energy Storage Battery Shipment**: The global shipment of energy storage batteries is expected to be revised upward to 500-550 GWh this year, with projections for 2026 at 600-650 GWh, indicating a nearly 30% year-on-year growth [1][7]. 5. **C Company Production Guidance**: C Company has provided a production guidance for 2026 that exceeds expectations, reaching TWh levels with a year-on-year growth of approximately 40% [1][8]. 6. **Market Dynamics**: The effective production capacity of major battery manufacturers is expected to grow by 25-30% year-on-year, aligning with demand growth. The industry concentration is anticipated to increase, with limited material release leading to potential price volatility [1][9]. 7. **Profitability Projections**: - Ningde Times is expected to achieve a profit of over 90 billion yuan in 2026, with a market value target of 1.8-2 trillion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 20-30% [3][10]. - Yiwei Lithium Energy is projected to have a total profit of over 9 billion yuan in 2026, with a market value target of 200 billion yuan, also showing close to 30% upside potential [3][11]. 8. **Electrolyte Industry Trends**: The processing fees for lithium hexafluorophosphate are expected to rise, with Tianqi Materials forecasting an optimistic total profit of 2.5-3 billion yuan [3][12]. 9. **Separator Industry Developments**: The separator industry is experiencing price increases due to the full production status of leading companies, which is expected to enhance profitability [3][13]. 10. **Iron Lithium Battery Market**: The iron lithium battery market shows a favorable supply-demand structure with ongoing price increase expectations [3][17]. 11. **Yuneng Company Outlook**: Yuneng is expected to grow by 30% next year, with a target profit of over 2 billion yuan [3][18]. 12. **Overseas Business Performance**: Companies like Longpan and Wanrun are expected to achieve significant profits from their overseas operations, with Longpan projecting a net profit of 500 million yuan [3][19]. 13. **Negative Material Market**: The negative material market is currently stable, but there are risks of price declines due to structural issues [3][20]. 14. **Future Profit Projections**: A company is expected to achieve a profit of 1.3 billion yuan in 2026, with a valuation of around 15-16 times [3][21]. 15. **Purtai's Incentive Goals**: Purtai has set a profit target of 3 billion yuan for 2026, with potential for exceeding expectations based on negative material performance [3][22]. 16. **Lithium Battery Sector Outlook**: The lithium battery sector is expected to have a favorable future with high cost-effectiveness and safety margins, making it a worthwhile area for investor attention [3][23]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The call highlighted the importance of local policies and market dynamics in shaping the future of the lithium battery industry, emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring of these factors [1][4][5]. - The potential for new product launches and expansions in production capacity, particularly in emerging markets, was noted as a significant driver for future growth [3][22][23].