光期研究 镍 & 不 锈 钢 月 度 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 6 年 3 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 镍&不锈钢：成本推升 需求好转 p 2 镍&不锈钢：成本推升 需求好转 | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1、供给：镍矿方面，印尼镍矿升贴水上涨4.5美元/吨至37美元/湿吨，菲律宾镍矿1.5%镍矿升水上涨1美金/吨至8.0美元/湿吨；镍铁方面，市场 | | | 主流报价集中在1080-1100元/镍（舱底含税），部分散单报价甚至高达1130-1150元/镍；中间品方面，折扣环比小幅下降，现货价格走弱，交 | | | 易活跃度下降。 | | | 2、需求：新能源方面，周度三元材料产量环比减少664吨至15617吨，库存环比减少533吨至17234吨；周度产量环比增加11.6%至26GWh，其中 | | | 铁锂电池环比增加11.1%至20GWh，三元电池产量环比增加13.2%至6GWh；乘联分会预计节后新能源车整车企业的降价促销能力下降，价格弹 | | | 性偏弱导致消费者心态趋于谨慎 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：津巴布韦禁令发酵 助推盘面强势运行 原材料：程 鹏 基本面来看，供应端，节前锂辉石精矿(CIF)价格微涨，云母略降；SMM 周度开工率 46.02%（-1.27%），除锂云母外，其他工艺开工率均下降，SMM 周度总产量 20184 吨（-560 吨），供应小幅收缩。需求端表现分化，铁锂 增产去库，三元产量库存双降；至 2 月 8 日，SMM 新能源车销量渗透率降 至 36.3%，处相对低位；1 月，动力+储能电池合计产量为 168.0GWh，环比 -16.7%，同比+55.9%；销量 148.8GWh，环比-25.4%，同比+85.1%。储能电 芯产销两旺且库存低位，成结构性亮点。库存端，节前 SMM 四地样本社会 库存增 3160 吨至 46210 吨，样本周度总库存去库至 102932 吨，总库存天 数降至 29.6 天，回归紧平衡格局。 宏观政策层面，需求侧，汽车以旧换新补贴与电池出口退税直接刺激 终端消费，改善宏观流动性；供给侧，发改委 1 月发布新能源汽车动力电 池综合利用管理办法，提高回收门槛、淘汰落后产能，长期优化国内供应 并抬升成本支撑中枢；产业 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Context - The global economic recovery is fragile, driven by structural contradictions, with a significant drop in global trade growth from 2.4% in 2025 to 0.5% in 2026 [4] - Manufacturing data reflects this demand shrinkage, with the US manufacturing PMI contracting for nine consecutive months and Germany's unemployment reaching a 12-year high of 3.085 million [4] - Global debt has surpassed $307 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio climbing to 336%, limiting countries' policy responses to crises [4] Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - Divergent monetary policies among major economies increase global economic uncertainty, with the Federal Reserve balancing inflation and growth, while the European Central Bank cautiously lowers rates amid wage growth concerns [5] - The World Bank warns that missteps in monetary policy by major economies could trigger a new wave of global financial turmoil [5] Group 3: China's Economic Resilience - China's economic resilience stems from deepening domestic demand and innovative policy tools, such as the "trade-in" policy for consumer goods, which has stimulated consumption in sectors like automobiles and electronics [5][6] - Infrastructure investment plays a crucial role, with new projects enhancing transportation networks and fostering new economic growth points through digital infrastructure and clean energy investments [6] Group 4: Technological Innovation - Breakthroughs in technology are reshaping China's economic growth, with advancements in high-temperature recyclable epoxy resin and reusable rocket engines positioning China as a leader in commercial aerospace [6] - Chinese companies dominate the global market for optical modules, holding a 43% market share, supported by systemic innovations in silicon photonics and cooling solutions [6] Group 5: Global Economic Governance - China's "dual circulation" development model offers new insights for global economic governance, contrasting with the unilateralism of Western countries [7] - The successful operation of the China-Europe Railway Express and the import of Chilean cherries demonstrate China's commitment to open trade and supply chain resilience [7] Group 6: Green Transition - China's green transition provides replicable pathways for developing countries, with the largest clean energy corridor generating over 2.351 trillion kilowatt-hours in the first three quarters [7] - The reduction of iron-lithium battery costs to 0.32 yuan/Wh is accelerating decarbonization in the global shipping industry [7] Group 7: Digital Economy Advancements - China is showcasing its leadership in the fourth industrial revolution through breakthroughs in digital infrastructure and applications, such as the "East Data West Computing" project [8] - The adoption of Chinese AIGC solutions by major companies like Microsoft and Sony indicates the global recognition of Chinese technology standards [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Lithium Battery and Electric Vehicle Market Global Electric Vehicle Sales Forecast - In 2025, global electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 29.076 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 33% with a penetration rate of approximately 30% [5] - The second half of 2025 is projected to see growth rates exceeding 30%, with December potentially surpassing 40% [5] - By 2027, global EV sales are anticipated to grow by 13% to 15%, with an increase in battery capacity per vehicle of about 17% [3] European Market Dynamics - European countries are actively promoting EV adoption through subsidies, with major markets like the UK, France, Germany, and Spain covering over 70% of sales [6] - The expected growth in the European commercial vehicle segment is conservatively estimated at 25%, while passenger vehicles are projected to grow by 29%, corresponding to an increase of 70 GWh in battery demand [3] Key Players and New Models - Major automotive manufacturers such as BMW, Volkswagen, and Stellantis are set to launch new platforms and models in 2027, which are expected to contribute an additional 5.5% to sales growth, equating to over 250,000 units [7] - BYD's factory in Hungary is also expected to drive significant sales growth [7] Lithium Battery Supply Chain Growth - The European lithium battery supply chain is projected to grow by over 29% in 2027, driven by the adoption of 800V high-voltage architectures and increased use of lithium iron phosphate batteries [9] - The production ramp-up at the Hungarian factory will further support this growth [9] Market Demand and Supply Insights Current Demand for Lithium and Materials - The demand for lithium and materials is currently very strong, particularly in the energy storage sector, with estimates ranging from 900 to over 1,000 GWh [2] - Despite domestic subsidy policies, the overall vehicle prices are high, which may lead to a slight decline in sales growth for power batteries [2] Supply Chain Challenges - Supply chain bottlenecks, particularly in lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate, may lead to tight supply-demand conditions [3][12] - The global lithium battery market is expected to grow by approximately 33% to reach 2.8 TWh by 2027, with optimistic scenarios suggesting growth could reach 40% [3][12] Investment Opportunities and Risks Focus Areas for Investment - Attention is recommended on lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate segments, which are expected to see high capacity utilization rates and significant price increases [3][13] - Key material companies such as those producing lithium iron phosphate, anode materials, separators, copper foil, and aluminum foil are considered attractive for investment due to their valuation potential [3][13] Price Transmission and Profitability - The battery industry is expected to maintain profitability through price linkage mechanisms with downstream customers, despite potential material cost increases [14][16] - Companies like CATL are focusing on supply chain stability to ensure long-term profitability rather than short-term gains [14] Future Market Growth Expectations - The energy storage market is anticipated to experience strong growth, with a projected demand increase of approximately 2,800 GWh in 2027, representing a year-on-year growth of 36% [20] - The European market is expected to see a conservative growth rate of 30%, translating to an additional 70 GWh in battery demand [20] Conclusion - The overall outlook for the lithium battery and electric vehicle market remains positive, with significant growth opportunities driven by technological advancements, supportive government policies, and increasing consumer demand for electric vehicles and energy storage solutions.

Group 1 - Lichong Group expects a net profit of 830 million to 870 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.38% to 23.04% [1] - Shandong Zhanggu anticipates a net profit of 72 million to 80 million yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 0.65% to 11.83% [2] - Yinglian Co. forecasts a net profit of 32 million to 42 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of 39.67 million yuan in the previous year [3] Group 2 - Hangya Technology announces plans for shareholders to reduce their holdings by up to 2.76% of the company's shares [4] - Guizhou Tire plans to invest in a project in Morocco to produce 6 million semi-steel radial tires annually, with a total investment of 299 million USD [5] - Laisentongling's shareholder plans to reduce their stake by no more than 1% [6] Group 3 - ST Yifei's shareholder intends to reduce their holdings by up to 1.53% [7] - Hengyi Petrochemical has fully launched the second phase of its Brunei refining project, aiming for a production capacity of 12 million tons per year [8] - Zai Sheng Technology's controlling shareholder has terminated an agreement to transfer part of the company's shares [9] Group 4 - Sry New Materials proposes a cash dividend of 0.4 yuan per 10 shares for the first three quarters of 2025 [10] - Quanyin High-Tech announces that the offer period for China Seed Group's acquisition has expired, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [11] - Zhonggang Luonai's shareholder plans to reduce their stake by up to 1% [12] Group 5 - Nanmo Bio expects to receive a government subsidy of 5.8 million yuan for its subsidiary [13] - Beite Technology has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a stock issuance to specific investors [14] - Qianyuan Pharmaceutical's subsidiary has obtained drug registration certificates for a new medication [15] Group 6 - Boto Integrated plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 1% [16] - Wanze Co. intends to reduce its stake by up to 1.66% [17] - Tianci Materials will halt production for maintenance on its lithium hexafluorophosphate production line starting March 1, 2026 [18] Group 7 - Haopeng Technology plans to raise up to 800 million yuan through a private placement [20] - Yisheng Co. reports a 43.32% year-on-year increase in sales revenue for its white feather broiler chicks in December 2025 [21] - Jinyu Medical proposes a cash dividend of 8.8 yuan per 10 shares for the first three quarters of 2025 [22] Group 8 - Caesar Travel's subsidiary has won a management service project for the Qingdao International Cruise Port [23] - Kelun Pharmaceutical plans to repurchase shares worth 50 million to 100 million yuan [24] - Jiangling Motors reports a 10.56% year-on-year increase in cumulative sales for 2025 [25] Group 9 - Yilian Technology plans to issue convertible bonds to raise up to 1.2 billion yuan [26] - Shaanxi Guotou A intends to participate in a capital increase for Chang'an Bank, with an amount not exceeding 800 million yuan [27] - Oupokang Vision has obtained a production license for eye drops [28] Group 10 - Shanghai Electric plans to provide management services for overseas assets of China Electric International [30] - Yingfang Micro is planning a major asset restructuring, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [31] - Victory Energy's stock will resume trading after completing a verification process [32] Group 11 - China Merchants Industry has signed a shipbuilding agreement with Dalian Shipbuilding [33] - Kunyu Group has appointed a new chairman following a board meeting [34] - Microchip Bio's clinical trial application for a new diabetes treatment has been accepted [35] Group 12 - Hanshuo Technology has signed a sales intention agreement for smart shopping carts with Woolworths in Australia [36] - Zhongmin Energy's three photovoltaic power station projects have been included in the Fujian Province development list [37] - Penghui Energy plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [38] Group 13 - Victory Energy reports that the acquirer has deposited a guarantee for the acquisition [39] - Fangsheng Pharmaceutical proposes a special dividend of 0.15 yuan per share for 2025 [40] - Nanning Department Store has received approximately 14.28 million yuan in government subsidies since January 2025 [41] Group 14 - Jushen Co. has signed a bauxite transfer agreement with a company in Guinea [42] - ST Huluwawa has received a drug registration certificate for a new inhalation solution [43] - Zhongzhi Co. will become the controlling shareholder following a share transfer agreement [44] Group 15 - Chuangli Group has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Chuanjiu Construction [45]

Group 1 - The core announcement from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) includes the release of the last batch of new vehicles for 2025, featuring a total of 163 new models, with a significant majority of 83% using lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) batteries and 17% using ternary batteries [2] - Among the new electric vehicles, 82 are pure electric models and 81 are plug-in hybrid or range-extended models, indicating a narrowing gap between these two categories [2] - The announcement highlights the presence of major brands such as Audi, BMW, and Cadillac, with a focus on SUV models that predominantly favor ternary batteries [4] Group 2 - The BMW iX1 is noted to be equipped with the sixth-generation eDrive system and a new cylindrical battery supplied by EVE Energy, which is expected to start mass production in Q3 of this year [3] - CATL's supply ratio in this batch is less than one-third, with only 48 vehicles, while other companies like Fudi, Guoxuan High-Tech, and Ruipu LanJun secured 10 or more new vehicle supplies each [3][4] - The Dongfeng Nissan NX8 is highlighted for its 800V high-voltage platform and 5C supercharging battery, with battery suppliers including CATL and Dongyu Xinseng [3]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The lithium battery sector has shown strong fluctuations since October, driven by rising upstream raw material prices, unexpected demand for energy storage lithium batteries, and continuous growth in new energy vehicle sales [1] - Upstream raw material prices have increased significantly, with lithium hexafluorophosphate rising by 105% to 123,000 yuan/ton as of November 11, and other materials like electrolyte and lithium carbonate also seeing over 15% increases since early October [1] - The energy storage cell market is experiencing a "full production and full sales" situation, with a surge in demand for high-quality cells due to policy shifts from "mandatory storage" to "independent storage" [1] Group 2: Downstream Developments - In October, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 1.715 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.93% and a month-on-month increase of 6.92%, with sales accounting for 51.63% of the total [2] - By October 2025, the installed capacity of power batteries in China is expected to reach 84.1 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.06% [2] Group 3: Investment Insights - Institutions suggest focusing on the trends in upstream raw material prices, monthly sales, domestic and international policies, and advancements in solid-state batteries [3] - The demand for iron-lithium batteries has exceeded expectations, leading to a potential price increase for VC (vinylene carbonate), an important additive in electrolytes, as the industry is currently operating at full capacity [3] - The growth in energy storage demand is expected to positively adjust the outlook for the phosphorus industry chain, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong supply capabilities in the phosphate ore segment [3]

Group 1: Institutional Trading Insights - A total of 33 stocks were listed on the institutional trading leaderboard, with 20 stocks experiencing net buying and 13 stocks facing net selling [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net buying by institutions were Tian Ci Materials (484 million), Hai Bo Si Chuang (382 million), and Ying Wei Ke (275 million) [1] - Hai Bo Si Chuang signed a strategic cooperation agreement with CATL, committing to purchase a cumulative total of no less than 200 GWh of electricity from 2026 to 2028 [1] Group 2: Lithium Battery Sector - Multi-Flor Multi is a leading global producer of lithium hexafluorophosphate, focusing on solid-state battery materials and possessing a complete industrial chain from fluorine resources to lithium batteries [1] - Hua Sheng Lithium Electric has a current production capacity of 15,000 tons of VC, with plans to expand by 20,000 to 30,000 tons next year [2] - The price of VC surged to 100,000-120,000 yuan per ton following the shutdown of a leading VC producer, with further increases expected due to rising downstream demand [2] - VC is primarily used in lithium battery electrolytes as an organic film-forming additive, enhancing battery efficiency and lifespan [2] - The demand for iron-lithium batteries is exceeding expectations, with VC's additive ratio increasing significantly, particularly in energy storage applications [3] Group 3: Consumer Sector - Dongbai Group is in the early stages of applying for tax-free product operating qualifications and is monitoring related policies to explore new business opportunities [4] - San Yuan Co. is the largest dairy product manufacturer in Beijing, with a focus on developing its "Ai Li You" series of milk powder [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong demand in the energy storage and solid-state battery sectors, driven by unexpected increases in lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) production, which is expected to boost upstream lithium salt and phosphoric chemical industries [1][10]. - According to Dongwu Securities, the shortage of energy storage cells is expected to persist until the second half of 2026, with low-priced orders seeing a price increase of 1-3 cents per watt-hour, leading to significant improvements in manufacturer profitability [2]. - The production capacity of various companies is projected to increase significantly, with notable expansions planned for companies like Hunan YN and Fulin Precision, indicating a robust growth trajectory in the energy storage market [3]. Group 2 - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with major indices showing significant gains, particularly in the financial sector, which saw a surge in trading volume and investor confidence [10][29]. - The energy storage sector is rebounding strongly, with leading battery manufacturers reporting full production capacity and some orders extending into early next year, reflecting the ongoing demand [11]. - The satellite communication sector is also gaining traction, with major telecom companies receiving licenses to operate satellite mobile communication services, enhancing communication capabilities in various applications [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the positive outlook for the lithium battery sector, with iron-lithium battery prices continuing to rise and significant breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology [1][8] - The photovoltaic sector is supported by government initiatives aimed at promoting high-quality development in the renewable energy industry, with expectations for price stabilization as excess capacity is eliminated [2][17] - The wind power sector aims for a total installed capacity of 360 GW by 2035, with ongoing tenders for offshore wind projects in Hainan [2][30] - The energy storage sector is seeing new technology layouts from government departments, with recent price increases in battery cells and tight supply conditions [3][42] - The electric power equipment sector is experiencing increased capital expenditure forecasts from major companies like Alibaba, indicating growth potential [4][49] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - Iron-lithium battery prices have increased by 0.15% to 0.33 CNY/Wh for 100Ah cells, and 0.17% to 0.30 CNY/Wh for 280Ah cells [8] - Solid-state battery advancements have been published in Nature, moving towards a lithium-rich manganese-based cathode and metallic lithium anode [9] - The automotive sector plans to implement solid-state batteries by 2026, with consumer electronics rapidly adopting semi-solid batteries [10] Photovoltaic Sector - The National Energy Administration emphasizes the need for high-quality development in the renewable energy sector, addressing "involution" in the photovoltaic industry [2][17] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in prices as outdated capacity is phased out due to new national standards and industry self-regulation [2][18] - Recent price trends show fluctuations in silicon material and module prices, with expectations for future price increases [19][21] Wind Power Sector - China's wind and solar installed capacity target for 2035 is set at 360 GW, with significant growth expected in the coming years [30] - Recent tenders for offshore wind projects in Hainan indicate ongoing investment and development in the sector [31] Energy Storage Sector - The government has released guidelines for new energy storage technologies, focusing on solid-state and liquid flow batteries [3][39] - The price of battery cells has seen slight increases, with supply remaining tight [42][45] - The report highlights the growing demand for energy storage solutions in both domestic and international markets [46] Electric Power Equipment Sector - Alibaba's increased capital expenditure forecast suggests a robust growth trajectory for the electric power equipment sector [49] - The report notes the significance of the Yantai-Weihai high-voltage project, which is expected to be completed by 2026 [50] Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The report discusses the introduction of various robotic technologies at the 2025 Industrial Expo, indicating advancements in automation [56][57] - The manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, with an increase in the PMI index suggesting improved demand for industrial control components [56] Hydrogen Energy Sector - The National Energy Administration has issued guidelines for the high-quality development of hydrogen energy equipment, with significant projects being approved [4][66] - The report highlights the approval of a large-scale green hydrogen project by Goldwind Technology, indicating growth in the hydrogen sector [67][68] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in green hydrogen production and fuel cell systems [69][72]