调整后如何看锂电产业链的投资机会 20251123 摘要 锂电板块虽受资金面扰动，但属阶段性调整，行业一季度排产预期稳定， 储能需求强劲，动力电池订单未见明显波动，海外市场需求亦保持高位， 支撑跨年排产景气度。 储能领域成本传导信心较强，动力领域短期承压，但历史经验表明成本 最终将向下游传导。六氟价格谈判预计将随散单趋势上涨，明年长单价 格或进一步抬升。 当前锂电板块估值较低，是较好的配置机会。中期来看，储能需求上调 逻辑不变，且本轮价格和盈利修复可持续两年以上，中长期逻辑依然良 好。 短期关注六氟、铁锂等紧张且有涨价预期的环节，中长期关注隔膜、负 极铜箔等盈利分位偏低、无明显扩产迹象的材料环节，以及固态及钠电 方向的投资机会。 锂电设备行业基本面向好，订单持续高增长，头部厂商已为明年设备需 求定点，二线厂商亦上调扩产计划，预计明年全行业扩产维持 30%以上 增长率。 Q&A 最近锂电板块的股价波动较大，您对此有何看法？ 上周锂电产业链的股价波动主要是预期上的波动，并非基本面的实质变化。尽 管年底各环节价格谈判进入关键阶段，但整体产业链保持乐观态度。近期高工 锂电峰会等事件可能引发资金面扰动，但我们认为这次调 ...

化工板块今日（11月18日）深度回调，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）全天弱势，盘中场 内价格一度跌超4%，截至收盘，跌3.46%。 从估值方面来看，当前化工板块或迎来较好配置时机。数据显示，截至昨日收盘，化工ETF（516020） 标的指数细分化工指数市净率为2.46倍，位于近10年来44.23%分位点的相对低位，中长期配置性价比凸 显。 展望后市，中信建投表示，在行业资本开支放缓，周期拐点将近的大背景下，建议关注受益反内卷有望 率先格局受益的品种，包括农药、尿素、纯碱、长丝、有机硅、氨纶等板块；另外降息周期中我国逆周 期政策发力助力内需回暖，建议关注聚氨酯、煤化工、石油化工、氟化工等板块；并且，发展新质生产 力、自主可控和产业升级是大国博弈背景下的坚定选择，新材料仍然是中国化工的主要发展方向之一， 重点关注半导体材料、OLED材料、COC材料以及其他高附加值产品的持续发展。 如何把握化工板块反弹机遇？借道化工ETF（516020）布局效率或更高。公开资料显示，化工ETF （516020）跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，全面覆盖化工各个细分领域。其中近5成仓位集中于大市 值龙头股，包括万华化学 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a decline on November 18, with major indices falling: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.56%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.43%, and ChiNext Index down 0.43%. The market's half-day trading volume exceeded 1.29 trillion yuan [1] - AI-related sectors showed strong performance, particularly in the "AI + e-commerce" direction, with stocks like Sora, multi-modal AI, and others seeing significant gains. Notable stocks such as Xuan Ya International, Zhi De Mai, Fu Shi Holdings, and Guangyun Technology hit the "20CM" limit up [1] - Ant Group launched a multi-modal AI assistant named "Lingguang," which supports natural language generation of small applications in 30 seconds and is the first in the industry to generate multi-modal content, including 3D models, audio, icons, animations, and maps. The assistant has three main functions and is available on both Android and Apple app stores [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities indicated that the breakthrough in the multi-modal industry lies in the understanding rather than the generation aspect. The mainstream models are shifting from "modular" to "native multi-modal" architecture, which is expected to address AI understanding bottlenecks and drive industry value transitions. The firm recommends focusing on both "infrastructure" and "application" sectors [2] - The new energy sector is experiencing a pullback, particularly in the lithium battery supply chain, with significant declines in stocks like Huasheng Lithium Battery, Zhongyi Technology, and Tianli Lithium Energy. CATL's stock also fell by 1% following an announcement regarding a share transfer by a major shareholder [2] - Rising battery material prices are strengthening the lithium battery supply chain, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in the energy storage industry. The demand for lithium iron phosphate, a mainstream technology for energy storage batteries, is increasing, while the supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate remains tight due to cautious expansion [2] - CITIC Jiantou expressed optimism about the excess profits in the downstream investment and operation of energy storage, which will be passed upstream through price increases in materials, batteries, and integration. The lithium battery supply chain shows significant elasticity, with opportunities in lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, anode materials, and separators [3]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower with all three major indices declining: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.24%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.31%, and ChiNext Index down 0.51% [1] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities highlights a surge in energy storage orders, maintaining a bullish outlook on lithium batteries and energy storage. A significant contract of 200GWh over three years was signed between Haibosi and CATL, confirming the tight supply of energy storage batteries. The firm anticipates excess profits in downstream investment operations to be passed upstream through price increases in materials, batteries, and integration [2] - The firm continues to favor materials, particularly 6F, iron lithium, anode, diaphragm, and battery segments. Key points to monitor include: 1) Seasonal production peaks leading to supply shortages and rising prices for materials and energy storage batteries 2) Clarity on demand for 2026 as downstream procurement and long-term contracts are established in October and November 3) Changes in pricing models [2] Consumer Sector Analysis - Galaxy Securities notes that the correlation between the consumer sector and major online promotions like Double Eleven will gradually decrease. The industry should focus on the medium to long-term consumption goals outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with optimism regarding overseas business development in 2026. The firm suggests paying attention to high-dividend quality companies during the market style switch (from high to low) and identifying companies with alpha potential in various sub-sectors [3] Property Management Outlook - CICC's 2026 outlook for property management indicates that changes in the internal and external environment are driving companies towards a more sustainable operational model characterized by moderate changes in volume and price, along with relatively stable cash flows. In the short term, companies are still in a phase of revenue and profit growth driven by scale expansion, with cash collection facing slight pressure and a continued increase in dividend intentions. The firm recommends high-quality targets with stable performance, strong cash flow, and high dividend yields [4]

Group 1 - The market experienced weak fluctuations yesterday, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges' trading volume at 1.91 trillion, a decrease of 47.3 billion compared to the previous trading day. The energy metals, military, and AI application sectors saw the largest gains, while precious metals and pharmaceuticals faced the most significant declines. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.2% [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities indicated that the recent signing of a 3-year 200GWh contract between Haibo Sichuang and CATL confirms the tight supply of energy storage batteries. They believe that excess profits in the downstream investment and operation of energy storage will be passed on to the materials, batteries, and integration sectors through price increases as demand surges. The lithium battery supply chain shows significant elasticity, with a focus on materials such as 6F, iron lithium, anode, separator, and battery segments [2] - The company anticipates a peak production season where materials and energy storage batteries will be in short supply, leading to continuous price increases. With downstream procurement and long-term guidance in October and November, demand for 2026 is becoming clearer, and pricing models are changing [2] Group 3 - Galaxy Securities noted that the correlation between the consumer sector and major online promotions like Double Eleven will gradually decrease. The consumer industry should focus on the medium to long-term goals outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with short-term attention on policies related to consumption in December 2025 for 2026. They hold an optimistic view on the development of overseas business for the consumer sector in 2026, emphasizing high-dividend quality companies during the market style transition [3] Group 4 - CICC released a 2026 outlook for property management, suggesting that changes in the internal and external environment are driving the industry's operating model towards a healthier and more sustainable direction characterized by moderate changes in volume and price, along with relatively stable cash flow. In the short term, companies are still in a phase of revenue and profit growth driven by scale expansion, with slightly pressured cash returns and a continuous increase in dividend willingness. They recommend high-quality stocks with stable performance, strong cash flow, and high dividend yields [4]

智通财经11月18日讯，市场昨日弱势震荡，沪深两市成交额1.91万亿，较上一个交易日缩量473亿。板 块方面，能源金属、军工、AI应用等板块涨幅居前，贵金属、医药等板块跌幅居前。截至昨日收盘， 沪指跌0.46%，深成指跌0.11%，创业板指跌0.2%。 银河证券：消费板块关注市场风格切换过程中的高分红率优质公司 银河证券指出，未来消费板块与双十一等重大线上促销的关联性将逐步降低。消费行业需要重视"十五 五"规划中消费的中长期目标；短期关注2025年12月针对2026年消费相关政策。对消费行业2026年海外 业务的发展持乐观观点。消费个股方面，关注市场风格切换（高切低）过程中的高分红率优质公司，以 及各细分赛道中有阿尔法的公司。 中金公司物业管理2026年展望：推荐业绩稳、现金流优、股息收益率高的优质标的 中金公司发布物业管理2026年展望，认为长期而言，行业内外部环境变化正推动物企经营模型向"量价 温和变化、现金流相对稳定"这一更为健康可持续的方向逐步发展；短期来看，覆盖企业仍处于规模扩 张推动收入利润温和成长、现金回款边际略有承压、分红意愿持续提升的发展阶段。推荐业绩稳、现金 流优、股息收益率高的优质标的。 ...

Group 1 - Domestic mainstream car manufacturers sold 1.26 million units in October, with a month-on-month increase of 16% and a year-on-year increase of 9%. The annual growth is expected to be 30%, with a projected growth of over 15% in 2026 [1] - In Europe, nine countries reported a total of 263,000 vehicle sales in October, showing a month-on-month increase of 39% but a year-on-year decrease of 16%. Cumulative growth is at 30%, with an expected annual growth of 30-35% [1] - The demand for energy storage has exceeded expectations, leading to a battery supply shortage. October production has increased by 10%, and a slight increase in production is expected in November, indicating sustained high demand [1] Group 2 - Energy storage prices have risen by 1-3 cents per watt-hour, with further price increases anticipated in Q4 [1] - The price of 6F materials has significantly exceeded expectations, and the price of iron lithium has confirmed an upward trend. Other materials are expected to follow suit with price increases in 2026 [1] - The reduction of tariffs between China and the U.S. and the postponement of lithium battery regulations have contributed to strong price increase demands from second-tier manufacturers, with expectations for 6F spot prices to reach 150,000 yuan by the end of the year [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The new power system is witnessing a decline in domestic thermal power proportion, with an increase in independent energy storage demand. The overseas energy storage market, particularly in Southeast Asia, Australia, and Europe, shows promising prospects. In the U.S., the utilization hours of energy storage in AI data centers are expected to increase, potentially driving storage products to evolve towards 6-8 hours [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Energy Storage Demand**: The demand for energy storage is expected to exceed expectations, with growth rates revised from approximately 15% to over 20%, potentially nearing 30%. This is primarily driven by energy storage needs, which may lead to a continued shortage of battery cells and a tight supply-demand situation lasting until mid-next year [1][4]. - **Price Increases in Battery Materials**: Key battery upstream materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, VC additives, iron lithium, and needle coke are entering a price increase cycle. Manufacturers of aluminum foil, separators, and copper foil are also considering price hikes, indicating a broader trend in material costs [1][5]. - **Integration of New Energy Development**: The development path for new energy includes integration with traditional and emerging industries, such as coal, oil and gas development, computing power, and hydrogen production. Concepts like zero-carbon factories, zero-carbon parks, and virtual power plants are also highlighted as important supplements to new energy demand [1][6]. - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power Industry**: The photovoltaic industry is advised to pay attention to policy changes, while the wind power sector should focus on offshore wind, particularly deep-sea wind-related segments, which are expected to develop significantly under policy support [1][7]. Noteworthy Companies - In the energy storage integrated products and battery cell sectors, companies such as Sungrow Power Supply, HIBOR, Canadian Solar, CATL, EVE Energy, and Xinwangda are recommended for continued observation. Additionally, companies involved in non-electric utilization pathways, such as China Tianying, China Shipbuilding Technology, and Shuangliang Eco-Energy, are also highlighted [2][3][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Chemical Industry Upstream**: The chemical industry is seeing growth in upstream materials like iron phosphate and sulfur. The phosphate market is expected to remain tight due to insufficient new mining projects, while sulfur prices have surged due to increased demand from the energy sector [9][10]. - **Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics**: The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly, with expectations of further increases due to improved storage demand. The overall growth of power batteries is projected to reach 10-15% next year [19][20]. - **Future Supply and Demand for Lithium**: The supply-demand balance for lithium is expected to remain tight, with risks of shortages increasing in the coming years due to limited new projects and rising demand from downstream sectors [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the energy storage and related industries.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the energy storage and lithium battery materials industry, particularly the midstream sector involving lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4), lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6), and separators [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Policy Impact on Energy Storage Demand**: New policies have clarified that end users will bear capacity pricing, which is expected to stabilize long-term investment returns in energy storage. It is projected that domestic energy storage installations will reach 250 GWh by 2026, a 50% increase from 2025 [1][4]. - **Current Market Conditions**: The processing rates for lithium iron phosphate, LiPF6, and separators are above 80%, indicating a tight supply-demand situation. Prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate have risen by 150% from the bottom, while VC additives have increased by 40% [1][5]. - **Production Capacity Expansion**: Different segments are expected to see varying degrees of production capacity expansion in 2026, with lithium iron phosphate expected to increase by 10%-15%, LiPF6 by 20%-30%, and additives by over 30%. Overall capacity growth is manageable, and most segments are expected to remain tight [1][6]. - **Price Trends**: The price of lithium battery materials is on an upward trend, with some materials increasing by 40% from their lowest prices. Current prices are around 65,000 yuan, with some companies quoting over 70,000 yuan [1][8]. - **Market Concentration**: The market for key materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolytic solvents is highly concentrated, with the top three companies holding market shares of 70%, 70%, and 63% respectively [2]. Additional Important Insights - **Future Demand Drivers**: The new policies have positioned new energy storage alongside coal and pumped storage, providing stability for long-term returns. The iron phosphate market is expected to see price increases driven by rising costs [3][9]. - **Separator Market Outlook**: The separator market has a long expansion cycle and currently high operating rates, suggesting potential for future price increases due to supply-demand mismatches [3][11]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies to watch include Tianqi Co., Tianqi Materials, Shida Shenghua, and Shenzhen New Star in the lithium hexafluorophosphate sector. In the VC sector, focus on Huasheng Lithium Battery, Haike New Source, and Furi Co. In the lithium iron phosphate sector, consider Hunan YN Energy, Wanrun New Energy, and Longpan Technology [12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future expectations of the energy storage and lithium battery materials industry.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the energy storage sector, particularly in the battery ETF market, which has seen significant gains this year [1][2] - The battery ETF (561910) opened with a nearly 4% increase, reaching a new annual high of 0.909, with major stocks like Enjie and Hunan Youneng experiencing substantial gains [1] - The performance of leading companies in the battery sector is impressive, with CATL reporting a net profit of 49 billion yuan for the first three quarters, and Gotion High-Tech showing a staggering 514% year-on-year growth in net profit [1] Group 2 - According to CITIC Securities, the domestic energy storage market is experiencing a significant economic turning point, with robust investment and increasing demand driven by data centers [2] - Lithium battery demand is expected to grow over 30% next year, creating investment opportunities across materials, batteries, and integration sectors [2] - Dongwu Securities notes that leading lithium material companies are at full capacity, indicating a price turning point is approaching, with expectations for price increases in lithium hexafluorophosphate and iron lithium [2]