车以旧换新政策落地，利好锂电产业链 20251231 摘要 新能源汽车补贴政策调整，置换补贴最高 1.5 万元，插混车型纯电续航 要求提升至 100 公里，购置税减半政策退坡，但整体利好锂电板块，预 计 2026 年动力电池总需求同比增长 15%-20%。 技术门槛提高推动插混和增程车型带电量增加，中高端车型受益于置换 补贴，电动货车报废优先支持政策提振动力电池需求，重卡或电动货车 带电量显著高于乘用车，对锂电需求有明显促进作用。 隔膜环节大客户谈价落地，毛利率超 30%，盈利水平支撑明年每股盈利 约 0.2 元，市盈率约 20 倍，且明年可能再提升 0.1-0.2 元，具备翻倍空 间，重点关注恩捷股份、星源材质和佛塑科技。 铝箔环节加工费修复至盈亏线附近，龙头公司明年加工费约 2000 元， 市盈率不到 20 倍，合理加工费可能继续上行至 3,000-4,000 元，加之 龙头公司额外利润差，具备接近翻倍空间，推荐铝箔环节龙头鼎胜新材。 六氟磷酸锂 12 月初提价，行业报价多在 15 万元以上，大客户已开始兑 现实际价格上涨，预计 1 月份 C 类大客户订单价格中枢将在 14-15 万元 之间，业绩反转迹象 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent developments in the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry, highlighting production adjustments by companies and the implications for pricing and profitability in the sector [1]. Group 1: Production Adjustments - Hunan YN and Wanrun New Energy announced maintenance on certain production lines, affecting output by 15,000 to 35,000 tons and 5,000 to 20,000 tons respectively [1]. - The high nominal operating rate in the LFP industry reached 89% in November, with leading companies operating at over 100% capacity, raising safety production concerns [1]. Group 2: Pricing and Profitability - The profit margins in the LFP segment are thin, with YN's long-term profit at 1,000 yuan per ton, while most others are either marginally profitable or operating at a loss [1]. - There is a significant discrepancy between SMM pricing (used for downstream settlements) and actual spot/futures prices, leading to mismatches in operating costs and capital expenditures [1]. - The industry is experiencing a turning point, as the maintenance reflects a strong price support stance, with the LFP industry alliance issuing average cost and price increase notices [1].

Battery Production - In January, battery production is projected at 75-76 GWh, remaining stable month-on-month [1] - Another battery production line is expected to produce 23 GWh in January, reflecting a 15% decrease compared to the previous month [1] - A third battery production line anticipates a slight increase, with production at 13 GWh in January [1] Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) Production - LFP production is expected to reach 110,000 tons in January, remaining flat month-on-month [1] - Another LFP production line is set to produce 40,000 tons, also stable compared to the previous month [1] - A third LFP production line will produce 23,000 tons, maintaining the same level as last month [1] Separator Production - Separator production is projected at 450 million square meters in January, remaining unchanged month-on-month [1] Anode Production - Anode production is expected to be between 32,000 to 34,000 tons in January, remaining stable compared to the previous month [1] Electrolyte Production - Electrolyte production is projected at 73,000 to 74,000 tons in January, which is consistent with the revised figures from December, but shows a 5% decrease after the revision [1]

行业 碳酸锂期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 碳酸锂期货冲高回落，在供应端扰动情绪褪去后，前日高点压制明显，日内电碳 涨 500 至 97550，澳矿涨 10 至 1340，云母涨 40 至 2825，三元涨 200-800，铁锂 涨 120，电解液持平，本周碳酸锂周度库存去库 1044 吨至 110425 吨，去库力度 继续放缓，预计将打压短期市场热情，不过在产业链涨价态势稳固的背景下，预 计锂价回调空间也有限。 二、 行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to experience a new round of expansion driven by solid-state technology breakthroughs and increased capital expenditure from 2023 to 2025, leading to a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics and price increases in certain segments [1][2]. Industry Cycle - The lithium battery midstream is entering a "recovery-prosperity" phase from 2024 to 2025, with revenue and inventory on the rise since the first quarter of 2024, indicating a recovery phase in the inventory cycle [1]. - The current inventory cycle is nested within a mid-cycle capacity expansion, with a second round of weak replenishment expected to last 1-2 years, potentially ending by late 2025 to 2026 [1]. Technological Developments - New technologies and scenarios are creating a second growth peak for lithium batteries, with solid-state batteries being a long-term strategic direction that will reshape the process and material systems [2]. - The establishment of pilot lines for solid-state batteries is expected to begin in 2025, transitioning towards mass production, with a clearer supply chain emerging [2]. - Composite copper foil is anticipated to achieve true industrialization, with production rhythms and penetration rates likely to exceed market expectations [2]. Market Dynamics - The industry is expected to favor differentiated leading players in niche segments, as they possess significant product and cost competitive advantages [2]. - Leading companies are likely to achieve full capacity utilization first, ensuring the most reliable performance and strongest elasticity [2]. - As the lithium battery supply-demand dynamics reach a new turning point in the second half of 2025, attention should be paid to high-demand segments such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, energy storage batteries, lithium iron phosphate, and dry-process separators [2].

上一轮锂电周期的价格和 股价是如何演绎 2025-12-08 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 长江证券研究所电力设备与新能源研究小组 分析师及联系人 分析师 邬博华 分析师 曹海花 分析师 叶之楠 联系人 王晓振 SAC执业证书编号：S0490514040001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490522030001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520090003 SFC执业证书编号：BQK482 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 景气复盘：6F先行，碳酸锂持续，材料依次 02 股价复盘：景气周期看弹性，中期格局为先 目 录 %% research.95579.com 3 01 景气复盘：6F先行，碳酸锂 持续，材料依次 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 01 复盘丨6F：20Q4-22Q1大涨，报表有长单平滑 ➢ 上一轮6F从2020年中的7万开始上涨，2020年底散单价格达到10-12万；2021年8月底在碳酸锂温和上涨至10万的背景下，6F散单大 幅上 ...

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤储能 资讯~ 文 ｜朱玥 许琳 任佳玮 储能需求爆发的大背景下，制造业环节的盈利能力仍处于历史低位的情况是不合理和不可持续的。当 前终端IRR水平较高，预计可接受10-15分/Wh的利润让渡。我们预计2026年制造业环节价格将上涨 10-15分/Wh，税后对终端电站的成本上涨12分/Wh，这对于下游需求的影响是可控的，但中游制造 业利润将大幅增厚，看好储能需求驱动下，制造业上下游量价齐升、共振受益。 国内储能对上游涨价的可接受空间较大 经济性驱动下，国内储能需求旺盛，储能项目招标数据同比大幅增长。锂电部分环节（电芯、6F等）受需 求拉动出现涨价，市场中随之出现"涨价抑制需求"的质疑， 我们本篇报告将测算国内储能电站对上游涨价 空间的接受度，并对未来各环节利润分配进行展望。 以国内储能招标较多的省份（河北、甘肃、内蒙、宁夏、山西、山东、新疆等）为例，我们结合各省招标量 对主要省份的加权平均IRR进行测算。 在当前储能系统集成价格0.5元/Wh，EPC价格0.8元/Wh的假设 下，全投资IRR加权平均为9.58%，资本金IRR加权平均1 ...

调整后如何看锂电产业链的投资机会 20251123 摘要 锂电板块虽受资金面扰动，但属阶段性调整，行业一季度排产预期稳定， 储能需求强劲，动力电池订单未见明显波动，海外市场需求亦保持高位， 支撑跨年排产景气度。 储能领域成本传导信心较强，动力领域短期承压，但历史经验表明成本 最终将向下游传导。六氟价格谈判预计将随散单趋势上涨，明年长单价 格或进一步抬升。 当前锂电板块估值较低，是较好的配置机会。中期来看，储能需求上调 逻辑不变，且本轮价格和盈利修复可持续两年以上，中长期逻辑依然良 好。 短期关注六氟、铁锂等紧张且有涨价预期的环节，中长期关注隔膜、负 极铜箔等盈利分位偏低、无明显扩产迹象的材料环节，以及固态及钠电 方向的投资机会。 锂电设备行业基本面向好，订单持续高增长，头部厂商已为明年设备需 求定点，二线厂商亦上调扩产计划，预计明年全行业扩产维持 30%以上 增长率。 Q&A 最近锂电板块的股价波动较大，您对此有何看法？ 上周锂电产业链的股价波动主要是预期上的波动，并非基本面的实质变化。尽 管年底各环节价格谈判进入关键阶段，但整体产业链保持乐观态度。近期高工 锂电峰会等事件可能引发资金面扰动，但我们认为这次调 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant pullback on November 18, with the chemical ETF (516020) declining by 3.46% and intra-day prices dropping over 4% [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including Tianqi Lithium and New Chemical Materials, faced substantial losses, with Tianqi Materials hitting the limit down and New Chemical Materials dropping by 11.22% [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent price corrections are normal, as the lithium battery materials sector is expected to see improved profitability in the coming year, indicating a potential rebound in demand and supply dynamics [3] Group 2 - The chemical ETF (516020) has seen significant net inflows, with over 3.52 billion CNY in net subscriptions over the last five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The current valuation of the chemical sector is relatively low, with the ETF's underlying index price-to-book ratio at 2.46, positioning it in the 44.23 percentile over the past decade, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [3] - Future investment strategies should focus on sectors benefiting from de-involution, such as pesticides, urea, and organic silicon, as well as new materials like semiconductor materials and OLED materials, which are crucial for China's chemical industry development [4][5]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a decline on November 18, with major indices falling: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.56%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.43%, and ChiNext Index down 0.43%. The market's half-day trading volume exceeded 1.29 trillion yuan [1] - AI-related sectors showed strong performance, particularly in the "AI + e-commerce" direction, with stocks like Sora, multi-modal AI, and others seeing significant gains. Notable stocks such as Xuan Ya International, Zhi De Mai, Fu Shi Holdings, and Guangyun Technology hit the "20CM" limit up [1] - Ant Group launched a multi-modal AI assistant named "Lingguang," which supports natural language generation of small applications in 30 seconds and is the first in the industry to generate multi-modal content, including 3D models, audio, icons, animations, and maps. The assistant has three main functions and is available on both Android and Apple app stores [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities indicated that the breakthrough in the multi-modal industry lies in the understanding rather than the generation aspect. The mainstream models are shifting from "modular" to "native multi-modal" architecture, which is expected to address AI understanding bottlenecks and drive industry value transitions. The firm recommends focusing on both "infrastructure" and "application" sectors [2] - The new energy sector is experiencing a pullback, particularly in the lithium battery supply chain, with significant declines in stocks like Huasheng Lithium Battery, Zhongyi Technology, and Tianli Lithium Energy. CATL's stock also fell by 1% following an announcement regarding a share transfer by a major shareholder [2] - Rising battery material prices are strengthening the lithium battery supply chain, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in the energy storage industry. The demand for lithium iron phosphate, a mainstream technology for energy storage batteries, is increasing, while the supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate remains tight due to cautious expansion [2] - CITIC Jiantou expressed optimism about the excess profits in the downstream investment and operation of energy storage, which will be passed upstream through price increases in materials, batteries, and integration. The lithium battery supply chain shows significant elasticity, with opportunities in lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, anode materials, and separators [3]