1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate has returned to a tight balance, and the price is expected to run strongly within a certain range [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures was 164,120 yuan/ton, with shrinking trading volume, slightly increasing positions, and a decreasing long - short ratio. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 96 lots to 38,855 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 152,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan/ton. The market trading was light. Upstream lithium salt factories continued the strategy of惜售 and price support, with only a few manufacturers making small - volume shipments. Downstream enterprises had weak purchasing sentiment on the first day after the holiday, and most had completed raw material procurement for February before the Spring Festival, still maintaining the idea of buying on dips, with only a few enterprises having rigid - demand restocking actions [3] Fundamentals Supply - Before the Spring Festival, the price of spodumene concentrate (CIF) increased slightly, while that of mica decreased slightly. The SMM weekly operating rate was 46.02% (-1.27%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,184 tons (-560 tons), and the supply shrank slightly [4] Demand - The demand performance was differentiated. The production of lithium iron phosphate increased while inventory decreased, and both the production and inventory of ternary materials decreased. As of February 8, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In January, the total production of power + energy - storage batteries was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%; the sales volume was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. The production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming, and the inventory was at a low level, which was a structural highlight [4] Inventory - Before the Spring Festival, the SMM four - location sample social inventory increased by 3,160 tons to 46,210 tons. The sample weekly total inventory decreased to 102,932 tons, and the total inventory days decreased to 29.6 days, returning to a tight - balance pattern [4] Macro - policy Demand - side - Subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and export tax rebates for batteries directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5] Supply - side - In January, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which raised the recycling threshold, eliminated backward production capacity, optimized the domestic supply in the long term, and raised the cost support center [5] Industry Planning - The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of energy - storage in the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form synergy to support the long - term supply - demand balance [5] International Aspect - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff. The tariff on energy - storage cells decreased from 48.4% to 43.4%, and the export profit improved marginally, which was beneficial to demand within the window period [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The market expectation of lithium carbonate has warmed up, and the disk has stabilized in shock. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the Spring Festival, as there are still many uncertainties [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 137,340 yuan/ton, with the trading volume dropping to 295,200 lots and the open interest increasing to 345,900 lots. The net short position of the main funds continued, and the long - short ratio of the net position increased month - on - month. The daily inventory of lithium carbonate on the GZFE increased by 940 lots to 35,537 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 136,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan/ton. The Spring Festival stockpiling is almost over, with most enterprises having a low psychological purchase price, being cautious and waiting and seeing, and the market inquiry and trading being relatively light [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the raw material market generally declined. The SMM total weekly operating rate was 47.29% (-2.21%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,744 tons (-825 tons) [4]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory was destocked. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales increased to 55.6%, remaining at a relatively high level. The energy - storage battery cells performed strongly, with both production and sales booming and low inventory [4]. - **Inventory**: According to SMM data, last week, the social inventory of the four - place samples increased by 3.73% month - on - month to 43,050 tons, the weekly inventory of the samples decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, the total inventory days increased to 30 days, and the downstream inventory days increased to 11.8 days (+9.26% month - on - month), showing passive inventory accumulation, structural differentiation, and poor transmission [4]. Macro - policy Analysis - **Demand - side**: Multiple incentives such as subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and tax rebates for battery exports stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5]. - **Supply - side**: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term, and raise the cost support center [5]. - **Industrial Planning**: The industrial planning of Qinghai Salt Lake, the key points of energy - storage during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits to support the long - term supply - demand balance [5]. - **Macro - environment**: The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment of capital risk aversion has increased, and the market is in a state of shock and consolidation. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation effect of macro - policies, marginal changes in costs and supply - demand, capacity release progress, as well as capital and sentiment [2][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 147,220 yuan/ton with a narrow - range shock. The trading volume dropped significantly to 311,900 lots, and the open interest slightly increased to 359,900 lots. The net short position of the main capital continued, and the long - short ratio decreased slightly month - on - month. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1,030 to 34,114 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 153,000 yuan/ton, with an electric - industrial price difference of 3,500 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt factories had a strong price - holding sentiment and a weak willingness to sell scattered orders. Downstream material factories were cautiously waiting and mainly adopted a strategy of purchasing at low prices. The overall market inquiry and transactions were lighter than before [2] Fundamental Analysis Supply - Last week, raw material markets generally rose. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 49.5% (-1.49%). Except for salt lakes, the operating rates of other processes decreased. The total SMM production was 21,569 tons (-648 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 2.92% [3] Demand - There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the SMM lithium iron phosphate production increased by 1.0% month - on - month with an increase in inventory accumulation; the ternary production decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and was gradually destocking. The production of power cells decreased slightly last week. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales by SMM rose to 55.6%. Energy - storage cells performed strongly, with both production and sales booming and low inventory [3] Inventory - Last week, the social inventory of SMM's four - location samples decreased by 5.6% (-2,450 tons) month - on - month, and the sample weekly inventory decreased by 1.3% (-1,414 tons) month - on - month. The total inventory days increased to 28.5 days, the downstream inventory days increased to 10.8 days, and the days of upstream and other links decreased, showing a significant differentiation in inventory structure [3] Macro - policy Level - On the demand side, subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax - rebate policies provided multiple incentives to stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which would improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure in the long term and raising the cost support center. In terms of industrial planning, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference formed synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cuts indirectly strengthened the long - term macro - favorable atmosphere [4]

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：延续区间震荡，聚焦供需边际 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂期货主力合约区间震荡收 164820 元/吨。资金面主力 净空延续，多空比环比下降，仓单微增 245 吨至 30211 吨。现货端，SMM 电碳均价 168000 元/吨。短期市场情绪于博弈特征明显，市场成交呈现分化 态势：上游散单报价有所收缩，出货意愿趋于谨慎；下游材料厂则出于刚 需及二月备货考虑，在价格相对低位时散单采购增加。市场整体询价与成 交活跃度有所提升，供需双方在当前价位下呈阶段性博弈。 原材料：程 鹏 基本面来看，供应端，上周原料市场分化，海外锂辉石持稳微涨，国 内现货锂矿回调。本周 SMM 碳酸锂总周度开工率 49.5%（-1.49%），除盐 湖外，其他工艺开工率均下降；SMM 总产量 21569 吨（-648 吨），环比-2.92%。 需求端结构性分化显著。本周 SMM 铁锂产量环比+1.0%，累库增加；三元 产量环比-1.1%，逐渐去库；上周动力电芯产量微降，截至 1 月 18 日，SMM 新能源车销量渗透率上升至 55.6%，储能电芯排产小幅增长托底需求，表现 强 ...

碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2026 年 1 月 29 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货价格高开低走，早盘主力最高涨破 18 万，但随后减仓下行。日内钢联 现货晚盘报价 17 万，较昨日跌 750 元/吨，跌幅明显小于盘面，其现货对盘面升 水扩大，现货表现抗跌，下游材料厂则在价格相对低位采购意愿增强，主要以刚 需采购和为二月备货为主。澳矿跌 100，云母矿跌 10，三元材料报价持平，铁锂 跌 50-100，产业链小幅跟跌。当前碳酸锂期货受窗口指导影响价格上行受阻 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to experience high - level shock adjustment, with a focus on marginal changes in supply and demand [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures showed a volatile downward trend yesterday, with an intraday decline of 6.56% and closing at 165,680 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, the long - short ratio decreased month - on - month, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 490 tons to 28,646 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon in the spot market was 181,500 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the raw material market showed a differentiated trend. Overseas lithium spodumene remained stable with a slight increase, while domestic spot lithium ore generally declined. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 50.99% (-1.7%), and the total output was 22,217 tons (-388 tons) [4] - **Demand**: There was a significant structural differentiation. SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased production and inventory, the output of power cells decreased slightly. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales increased to 55.6%, and the production and sales of energy - storage cells were strong with extremely low inventory [4] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the four - place sample of SMM increased by 2% (+860 tons) week - on - week, the sample weekly inventory decreased slightly by 0.7% (-783 tons), the total inventory days were 27.8 days, and the inventory structure was significantly differentiated [4] Macro - policy Analysis - **Demand - side**: Multiple incentives such as subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5] - **Supply - side**: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will optimize the domestic supply structure and raise the cost support center in the long term [5] - **Industrial Planning**: The industrial planning of Qinghai Salt Lake, the key points of energy storage in the "15th Five - Year Plan", and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form a coordinated positive effect to support the long - term balance of supply and demand [5] - **Macro - environment**: The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate in a volatile and upward - trending manner, with a focus on cost and marginal changes in supply and demand [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range and closed at 168,780 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main funds continued, the long - short ratio decreased month - on - month, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 230 tons to 28,886 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 164,500 yuan/ton [1] Supply - side Situation - Last week, raw material prices increased by over 17% month - on - month, strengthening cost support. This week, the total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 50.99% (-1.7%), and the operating rates of various process routes decreased month - on - month due to maintenance plans. The total production of SMM was 22,217 tons (-388 tons), with a slight decrease in supply [2] Demand - side Situation - There was a significant structural differentiation on the demand side. Last week, the production of SMM iron - lithium and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory was destocked. The production of SMM power cells decreased slightly. As of January 18, the penetration rate of SMM new - energy vehicle sales rose to 55.6%, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [2] Inventory Situation - The sample social inventory in four regions of SMM increased by 3.1% (+1,290 tons) month - on - month, the sample weekly inventory was destocked again, decreasing slightly by 0.7% (-783 tons) month - on - month. The total inventory days were 27.8 days, with the upstream and downstream inventory days increasing to 5.1 days and 9.6 days respectively, and the inventory days in other links decreasing to 13.1 days. The inventory structure showed significant differentiation [2] Macro - policy Situation - On the demand side, multiple incentives such as subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries, which will optimize the domestic supply structure and raise the cost support center in the long term. Industrial plans such as the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year" plan for energy storage, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cuts indirectly strengthen the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [3]

Summary of the Sulfur Market Update and Outlook Industry Overview - The sulfur market in China is experiencing a continuous increase in consumption, projected to rise over 40% from 2020 to 2025, reaching 11.6 million tons [1][5] - Domestic sulfur production is significantly increasing, while import volumes fluctuate due to international factors [1][5] - Major producers like Zhenhai Refining and Chemical have faced production interruptions due to accidents, impacting overall supply [2] Key Insights and Arguments - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The primary reason for the expected price increase in sulfur in 2025 is the supply-demand imbalance. Domestic production is expected to grow from over 8 million tons in 2020 to over 11.6 million tons in 2025, but imports are projected to decline, particularly in Q3 2025 due to international supply shortages [2][18] - **International Market Influence**: The international market significantly impacts China's sulfur supply, with Central Asia accounting for about 18% of imports. However, geopolitical tensions and reduced inventories have led to decreased exports from these regions [6][8] - **Russian Market Impact**: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has created a supply gap in the Russian sulfur market, with major producers like the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant planning maintenance that will reduce output [8][29] - **Middle East as a Stable Supplier**: The Middle East, particularly countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, has become a key stable supplier of sulfur, gaining pricing power following the Russian supply gap [11][10] Additional Important Content - **Future Trends**: The global and Chinese sulfur markets will continue to be influenced by changes in supply and demand relationships. New oil and gas processing plants and upgrades to existing facilities are expected to increase supply, but geopolitical risks may lead to price volatility [7][23] - **Regional Demand Variations**: Indonesia's nickel industry is expected to significantly increase sulfur demand due to expansions in battery material-related metal smelting [24][25] - **Downstream Consumption Changes**: The consumption of phosphate fertilizers is expected to decrease by about 700,000 tons in 2025, while the renewable energy sector is projected to see an increase of 200,000 to 300,000 tons, although some projects may not launch as planned due to high costs [18][19] - **Price Trends**: Historical price trends indicate significant volatility, with domestic prices expected to reach between 4,200 and 4,220 RMB by the end of 2025 due to increased downstream demand and supply constraints [15][16] Conclusion - The sulfur market is poised for significant changes driven by domestic production increases, international supply challenges, and evolving demand dynamics across various sectors. The interplay of these factors will shape pricing and availability in the coming years, with a focus on maintaining a balance between supply and demand to mitigate risks of price spikes and shortages.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint - The report predicts that the price of lithium carbonate will stabilize in a volatile manner, and investors should focus on marginal changes in cost, supply, and demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate showed a volatile downward trend, hitting the daily limit of 146,200 yuan/ton multiple times, with an intraday decline of about 9%. Trading volume increased to 592,000 lots, and open interest slightly decreased to 416,000 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the long - short ratio decreased by 3.8% month - on - month. Market sentiment was cautious, and the number of warehouse receipts increased slightly to 27,500 lots. The SMM average price of electric carbon was 158,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 11,800 yuan/ton [3] - In the spot market, the upstream's reluctance to sell increased, with a low willingness to sell scattered orders, and some manufacturers suspended quotations and actively stockpiled. The downstream's purchasing willingness increased due to lower prices and rigid demand. Overall market inquiries and traders' willingness to sell both increased [3] Fundamental Analysis Supply - Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 17% month - on - month, strengthening cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 52.7% (+0.98%). The operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes increased slightly, while those of lithium mica and recycling decreased slightly. The total output was 22,605 tons (+70 tons), and the supply stabilized at a high level [4] Demand - There was significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the output of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly, and inventory was destocked. The output of SMM power cells decreased slightly. As of January 11, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales decreased month - on - month, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [4] Inventory - Last week, the weekly inventory of SMM samples was destocked again, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% (-263 tons). The total inventory days remained at 28 days. The upstream inventory days increased to 5 days, and the downstream inventory days decreased slightly to 13.8 days, showing significant inventory structure differentiation [4] Macroeconomic Policy - On the demand side, in 2026, multiple incentives such as car trade - in subsidies, Fed rate cuts, and battery export tax - rebate policies will stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve recycling thresholds and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic lithium carbonate supply structure and raising the cost support center in the long term [5] - Industrial planning, such as the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan and the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, along with a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference, will form a coordinated positive impact, supporting long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest - rate cuts will indirectly strengthen the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View The industry will experience range - bound oscillations, with the strong game - playing pattern continuing. Attention should be focused on marginal changes in costs, supply, and demand [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the main lithium carbonate contract showed wide - range oscillations, with prices fluctuating between 155,000 yuan/ton and 173,400 yuan/ton, closing at 161,940 yuan/ton. Trading volume slightly shrank to 589,000 lots, and open interest slightly decreased to 453,000 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the long - short ratio decreased by 3.8% month - on - month. Market sentiment was cautious, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 27,200 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 163,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 1,060 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of market transactions, upstream lithium salt manufacturers preferentially fulfilled long - term agreements, and their willingness to sell spot orders was low, with some manufacturers quoting high prices. The proportion of spot purchases by downstream material manufacturers increased during long - term agreement negotiations. The weakening of the afternoon market led to a recovery in inquiry and transactions, and overall transactions moderately increased [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 9% month - on - month, continuing the upward trend and strengthening cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 1.05% month - on - month. The operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes decreased slightly, while those of lithium mica and recycling increased slightly. SMM's total output increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and production capacity was further released [4]. - **Demand side**: There was a significant structural differentiation. Last week, the production of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased by 3.3% and 1.3% month - on - month respectively, with inventory destocking. The production of SMM power cells slightly decreased, while SMM new energy vehicle sales and penetration reached new highs. Slight growth in the production scheduling of energy - storage cells supported demand [4]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample increased by 0.3% month - on - month, showing the first sign of inventory accumulation. The total inventory days slightly increased to 28 days [4]. Policy Impact - In 2026, subsidies for car trade - ins, the Fed's interest rate cuts, the industrial plan for Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of arrangements from the Central Economic Work Conference jointly provided favorable support for long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - On January 4th, the State Council's "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" strengthened constraints on the supply side, which may exacerbate short - term supply shortages. On January 9th, the two departments announced a reduction in the battery export tax - refund policy, which may trigger short - term export rush demand [4].