Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 40.22 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.36%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.64% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company experienced a revenue of 10.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.46%, but a significant drop in net profit by 74.41% year-on-year [1][2] - Q1 2025 showed a recovery with a revenue of 10.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.09%, and a net profit of 308 million yuan, down 18.88% year-on-year but up 114.66% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] Financial Performance - Q4 2024 saw a gross margin of 10.85%, a decrease of 1.26 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, and a net margin of 1.40%, down 3.46 percentage points [2] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 11.94%, an increase of 1.09 percentage points, and the net margin rose to 3.14%, up 1.74 percentage points [2] - Return on equity (ROE) in Q4 2024 was 0.71%, down 1.59 percentage points, while in Q1 2025, ROE increased to 1.52%, up 0.81 percentage points [2] Market Position - The company maintained its leading market share in the precursor industry, with a 20.3% market share in ternary precursors for 2024, and a 28% market share in cobalt tetroxide, both for five consecutive years [2] - The sales volume of positive precursors reached 302,100 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.83% [2] - The average gross margin for positive precursors in 2024 was 17.85%, an increase of 1.10 percentage points year-on-year, with ternary precursor gross margin at 19.97%, up 2.01 percentage points [2] Production Capacity - The company reported successful new capacity construction and delivery in 2024, including several domestic and international projects [3] - Notable achievements include the delivery of 4N electric cobalt from the Qinzhou base and the production of battery-grade lithium carbonate at the Tongren base [3] - The company also established a ternary production base in Morocco, marking a significant expansion in overseas operations [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its profit forecast due to slower sales growth, projecting net profits of 1.94 billion, 2.54 billion, and 3.03 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are estimated at 15, 12, and 10 times for the respective years [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in profitability in Q1 2025, with expectations for a turnaround in operations in the second half of 2025 [3][11] - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) decreased significantly in 2024, leading to substantial losses, but the price has started to recover in Q1 2025, resulting in a reduction of losses [3][11] - The company is expected to achieve a single-quarter profit in H2 2025 due to improved pricing of high-end products and structural optimization [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 16,973 million yuan, with a projected decline of 55.15% in 2024, followed by a recovery of 14.89% in 2025 [1][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -1,636.24 million yuan in 2023, with a forecasted loss of -1,337.65 million yuan in 2024, and a projected profit of 269.44 million yuan in 2026 [1][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -5.84 yuan in 2023 to 2.18 yuan in 2027 [1][12] Operational Insights - The company experienced a slight increase in shipment volume in 2024, with expectations for a significant increase in 2025 [10] - Cost control measures have been strengthened, leading to a reduction in inventory levels [11] - The company’s operating cash flow was significantly impacted in 2024, but is expected to improve in the coming years [11] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 27.44 yuan, with a market capitalization of 7,688.36 million yuan [7] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.43 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.71% [8][12]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Fulin Precision (300432) meets market expectations, driven by dual engines of iron-lithium and robotics, with a target price adjustment to 31.5 yuan and a "buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects revenue of 8.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47%, and a net profit of 400 million yuan, up 173.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 12.4%, an increase of 6.9 percentage points [1] - In Q4 2024, revenue is projected at 2.59 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 63.5% and a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, while net profit is expected to be 90 million yuan, down 161.2% quarter-on-quarter and 51.9% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue is anticipated to be 2.7 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 80.3% and a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with a net profit of 120 million yuan, up 211.9% quarter-on-quarter and 43.7% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Iron-Lithium Business - In 2024, iron-lithium shipments are expected to reach 126,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of nearly 179%, with Q4 shipments at 44,000 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26% [2] - For Q1 2025, shipments are projected to be nearly 50,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 170%, with a target of 250,000 tons for the year, doubling the previous year's output [2] - The company anticipates a recovery in net profit per ton of iron-lithium to 200 yuan in 2025, driven by cost reductions from self-supplied materials [2] Group 3: Automotive Parts Business - In 2024, the automotive parts business is expected to generate revenue of 3.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, with new energy components contributing 1.1 billion yuan, up 99% [3] - The gross margin for the automotive parts business is projected at 23.7%, contributing 860 million yuan in gross profit [3] - For Q1 2025, the automotive parts business is expected to contribute a net profit of 80 million yuan, with a stable growth forecast for the year [3] Group 4: Cost Control and Capital Expenditure - In 2024, operating expenses are projected at 620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, with an expense ratio of 7.3% [4] - Capital expenditure for 2024 is expected to be 810 million yuan, down 32.3%, while Q1 2025 capital expenditure is projected at 300 million yuan, a significant quarter-on-quarter increase [4] - The company reported operating cash flow of 580 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 88.6% year-on-year [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The company has revised its net profit expectations for 2025-2026 to 960 million and 1.54 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 2.04 billion yuan, reflecting significant growth [4] - The target price is set at 31.5 yuan, with a PE ratio of 25x for 2026 [4] - Recent ratings show 7 buy ratings and 1 hold rating from 8 institutions, with an average target price of 27.12 yuan [5]