Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei [4] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current rise in zinc prices is mainly driven by the strength of gold and silver and sector sentiment, deviating from fundamental support to some extent. Although prices may remain strong in the short - term under the macro - environment, the constraints of environmental protection and the inhibitory effect of high prices on demand are accumulating, and the market should be vigilant against the callback risk caused by the decline of sentiment [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: In the futures market, for the 2601 contract of Shanghai zinc, it opened at 24,155 yuan/ton, closed at 24,200 yuan/ton, with a high of 24,600 yuan/ton, a low of 24,150 yuan/ton, a rise of 160 yuan, a rise rate of 0.67%, and the position decreased by 90 to 1,915. The 2602 contract opened at 24,215 yuan/ton, closed at 24,235 yuan/ton, with a high of 24,735 yuan/ton, a low of 24,035 yuan/ton, a rise of 205 yuan, a rise rate of 0.85%, and the position decreased by 5,011 to 68,022. The 2603 contract opened at 24,290 yuan/ton, closed at 24,280 yuan/ton, with a high of 24,785 yuan/ton, a low of 24,060 yuan/ton, a rise of 210 yuan, a rise rate of 0.87%, and the position increased by 9,828 to 111,306 [7] - **Market Situation**: A - shares ended 17 consecutive positive days, and the commodity market showed mixed performance. Shanghai zinc formed a long - upper - shadow positive candlestick, reaching a high of 24,735 yuan/ton during the day, then falling back in the afternoon, with the increase narrowing. The net short position slightly expanded, the Shanghai - London ratio weakened to 7.58, and the import loss of zinc ingots was 1,989 yuan/ton, with the import window remaining closed [7] - **Industry Fundamentals**: Domestically - produced ore remained tight, and the domestic weekly TC average price was flat at 1,500 yuan/metal ton. Although the import window for imported ore was open, due to low processing fees and weak purchasing sentiment, the transaction was difficult to improve. In December, the output of refined zinc decreased significantly month - on - month. Although the output in January is expected to rise slightly, the supply pressure is limited. On the demand side, environmental protection warnings in the northern region reappeared, combined with the seasonal off - season and high zinc prices, the downstream purchasing willingness was generally weak, and the spot premium declined [7] 2. Industry News - **Price Range on January 13, 2026**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 24,135 - 24,280 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan zinc was between 24,325 - 24,480 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 24,065 - 24,210 yuan/ton [8] - **Regional Market Quotes**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 24,165 - 24,280 yuan/ton, with a premium of 175 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract and a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the Shanghai spot. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were traded at 24,010 - 24,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of Zijin zinc over the 2602 contract was 50 - 100 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was traded at 23,955 - 24,175 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed [8][9] 3. Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory [11][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then fell. The macro - economic data in the US was mixed, dampening the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in January. The US Supreme Court did not rule on the tariff issue on January 9, and the ruling may be postponed to January 14. In China, inflation data improved from a low level, and the stock market index reached a ten - year high, keeping the market's bullish sentiment high [3][10]. - The fundamentals deviated from the strong market. Since mid - December, the Shanghai - London price ratio has recovered, the loss of zinc ore imports has narrowed significantly, the decline of processing fees has slowed down. After the zinc price rebounded, smelters' profits improved, and production willingness increased slightly. Refineries that had maintenance in early January resumed production one after another, and the refined zinc output is expected to increase month - on - month. The expected export of zinc ingots has declined, increasing the pressure on the supply side [4][10]. - On the demand side, due to the resumption of work after the New Year's Day holiday and the lifting of environmental protection warnings in the north, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises rebounded. Terminal orders were differentiated, with weak orders for guardrails and lamp posts and resilient orders for iron towers. Due to weak terminal consumption and rising raw material prices, die - casting zinc alloy enterprises reduced their operating rates. Some zinc oxide enterprises reduced their operating rates due to poor sales caused by high - priced raw materials. Overall, primary enterprises mainly consumed inventory, reduced purchases, and social inventory increased slightly [4][10]. - In the short term, the zinc price is mainly affected by the macro - economic situation and capital. The expectation of loose domestic and foreign monetary policies and strong capital bullish sentiment support the zinc price. However, the fundamentals cannot effectively match, with increasing supply and weakening consumption highlighted by high raw material prices, and social inventory accumulating. It is expected that the influence of capital will increase the volatility of the zinc price, and the futures price will fluctuate widely at a high level [4][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From January 2 to January 9, the SHFE zinc price rose from 23,275 yuan/ton to 23,970 yuan/ton, an increase of 695 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 3,127 US dollars/ton to 3,149 US dollars/ton, an increase of 22 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 7.44 to 7.61, an increase of 0.17. The SHFE inventory increased by 4,059 tons to 73,852 tons, the LME inventory increased by 1,125 tons to 107,450 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.37 million tons to 11.85 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 110 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Review - After the New Year's Day holiday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2603, reached a high of 24,560 yuan/ton, then some funds took profits and left the market. The zinc price adjusted at a high level along with the non - ferrous metals sector and finally closed at 24,015 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.02%. It fluctuated narrowly at night on Friday. LME zinc rose first and then fell, reaching a high of 3,268 US dollars/ton, then falling back and finding support near the 20 - day moving average below, and finally closing at 3,149 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.7% [6]. - In the spot market, as of January 9, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was concentrated between 23,940 - 24,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of 180 - 200 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand of 0 zinc was traded at around 23,940 - 24,160 yuan/ton, with a premium of 180 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract and a premium of 90 yuan/ton over the Shanghai spot price. In the Guangdong market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 23,770 - 24,050 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 23,780 - 24,070 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 - 70 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract, and Tianjin's price was at a discount of 70 yuan/ton compared to Shanghai. Overall, the market supply increased, traders' willingness to sell improved, the spot premium decreased, but downstream buyers were still reluctant to buy at high prices, and actual spot transactions were mainly among traders [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of January 9, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 107,450 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons from the previous week. The SHFE inventory was 73,852 tons, an increase of 4,059 tons. As of January 8, the social inventory was 11.85 million tons, an increase of 0.87 million tons from December 31 and an increase of 0.37 million tons from January 5. During the week, the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was large, so Guangdong's spot zinc flowed into the East China region. At the same time, the arrival of goods in Guangdong was less during the week, resulting in a decline in inventory. Affected by the high zinc price during the week, the delivery rhythm in Shanghai and Tianjin slowed down. Coupled with the arrival of imported goods in Zhejiang during the week, the inventory increased [8]. - In the macro - economic aspect, the US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 decreased slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024. New orders have contracted for four consecutive months, and export orders are still weak. The ISM services PMI index in December rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest level since October 2024. The increase in new orders reached the highest level since September 2024. The US employment market did not show obvious pressure. The non - farm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, lower than the market expectation of 60,000. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000, and the October data was further revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. In China, the CPI in December increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the highest increase since March 2023. The core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, with the increase remaining above 1% for four consecutive months. The CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, turning from a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month; it increased by 0.2% month - on - month, rising for three consecutive months [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - SMM data showed that on January 9, 2026, the average processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were 1,500 yuan/metal ton and 37.5 US dollars/dry ton respectively, with the domestic average remaining flat and the foreign average decreasing by 6.25 US dollars/dry ton compared to the previous period [11]. - Slave Lake Zinc discovered high - grade lead - zinc mineralization in O'Connor Lake, with a maximum of 7.75% Pb and 6.62% Zn [11]. - On January 4, Indian mining group Vedanta Ltd released its production data for the third quarter (Q3 FY26) of the fiscal year ending in December 2025. The production of zinc metal from Indian mines increased by 4% year - on - year, and the production of zinc metal from overseas mines increased significantly by 28% year - on - year. The company said it was mainly due to improved operational efficiency [11]. - Kaz Mineral released its production situation for the third quarter. The report showed that the zinc concentrate metal volume in the third quarter of 2025 was 13,900 tons, and the total zinc concentrate metal volume in the first three quarters of 2025 was 34,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10% [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trend charts of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, the ratio of domestic and foreign markets, spot premiums and discounts, LME premiums and discounts, inventory data of LME, SHFE, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, smelter profit, domestic refined zinc production, refined zinc net import, and the operating rate of downstream primary enterprises [12][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][24][26][29][30].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: December 5, 2025 - Report Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views Bullish Factors - Domestic zinc inventory has been continuously declining, with the inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions decreasing by 0.38 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [3]. - Export orders have remained stable, and the improvement in weather has boosted terminal demand, supporting zinc prices [3]. Bearish Factors - The increase in LME zinc inventory indicates supply pressure, and weak consumption has suppressed zinc prices [3]. - Galvanizing enterprises in northern China have reduced their operating rates due to environmental protection restrictions, dragging down downstream demand [3]. Trading Advisory Views - It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of inventory changes and export data on short - term prices and operate with caution [3]. Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - Multiple data on the zinc processing industry, including the weekly market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and weekly output of galvanized coils, are presented in a seasonal chart format [5]. - Seasonal charts of net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide are provided [6][8]. - Seasonal charts of real - estate - related data such as real - estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and land transaction area are shown [11][13][15]. - Seasonal charts of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in different sectors are presented [16]. Supply and Supply - side Profit - Seasonal charts of zinc concentrate monthly import volume, SMM zinc ingot monthly output, China's zinc ingot monthly production plus import volume, and zinc concentrate raw material inventory days are provided [19][22][23][25]. - Charts showing the relationship between SMM import and domestic zinc concentrate weekly processing fees, refined zinc enterprise production profit and domestic zinc concentrate weekly processing fees, and LME and SHFE zinc inventory are presented [21][22][25][26]. Futures and Spot Market Review - Charts of domestic and international zinc price trends, Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume and open interest, LME zinc closing price and US dollar index, LME zinc premium and discount, and zinc ingot basis are presented [28][29][30][32][34][37].

Group 1: Important Data - LME zinc spot premium is -$1.95 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 22,570 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -5 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,530 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -80 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,530 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -45 yuan/ton [1] - On July 30, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,645 yuan/ton and closed at 22,655 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 127,217 lots, and the open interest was 117,616 lots. The highest price was 22,725 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,580 yuan/ton [2] - As of July 30, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 103,700 tons, a change of 5,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 112,150 tons, a change of -3,350 tons from the previous trading day [3] Group 2: Market Analysis - In the spot market, the spot premium is overall. The import ore TC is still rising. Vedanta's Q2 report shows a 7% year-on-year increase in zinc concentrate production. Domestic smelting profits remain high, and the expectation of oversupply in the second half of the year remains unchanged. Smelters' raw material inventory has increased to 29.7 days, with sufficient raw material reserves and low procurement enthusiasm for the ore end [4] - On the consumption side, the downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and overall consumption is not bad, but it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventory shows a trend of accumulation, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the second half of the year. At the same time, overseas inventory has been increasing continuously. A rapid increase in social inventory will suppress zinc prices [4] Group 3: Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The short - term direction of zinc price fluctuations is difficult to judge. Overseas geopolitical conflicts have changed, causing the zinc futures price to rise. The consumption side may face challenges in May, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month weakening in consumption after May. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][3]. Summary by Related Content Important Data - Spot market: In the Guangdong region, inventory has been continuously declining, and due to shortages of individual brands, the spot premium has slightly increased. In the East China region, the procurement enthusiasm has declined due to the replenishment of imported zinc ingots in the early stage. In the North China region, procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and the overall spot market premium and discount remain stable. In the overseas mining end, the output in the first quarter was lower than expected, but it does not change the expectation of zinc ingot surplus. Although the upside space of TC is limited, smelting still has profits at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm remains, with supply pressure still existing. The inventory of imported mines in China is sufficient, and there are no conditions for a short - term TC reduction. The consumption side may face a test in May, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month weakening in consumption after May [1][3]. - Futures: On May 20, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,415 yuan/ton and closed at 22,435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 94,706 lots, a decrease of 31,390 lots from the previous trading day. The position throughout the trading day was 76,630 lots, a decrease of 8,930 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 22,490 yuan/ton and a minimum of 22,360 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: As of May 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 83,800 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the same period last week. As of May 20, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 156,725 tons, a decrease of 4,075 tons from the previous trading day [2].

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices experienced a slight decline last week, with domestic and international market indicators showing mixed signals regarding supply and demand dynamics [1] Market Performance - As of last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index rose by 0.05% to 22,048 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 230,200 contracts [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc price increased by 23 to 2,622.5 USD/ton, with total open interest at 213,200 contracts [1] Inventory and Supply - Domestic zinc ingot inventory recorded 1,900 tons, while social inventory decreased slightly to 83,300 tons [1] - LME zinc ingot inventory stood at 170,700 tons, with 66,800 tons of canceled warrants [1] - Zinc concentrate port inventory reached 371,000 physical tons, and factory inventory was at 583,000 physical tons [1] Processing Fees and Costs - Domestic zinc concentrate processing fee is at 3,500 CNY/metal ton, while the import processing fee is at 40 USD/dry ton [1] Downstream Demand - The operating rate for galvanized structural components is at 60.87%, with raw material inventory at 15,000 tons and finished product inventory at 37,800 tons [1] - The operating rate for die-casting zinc alloys is at 54.60%, with raw material inventory at 13,000 tons and finished product inventory at 9,000 tons [1] - The operating rate for zinc oxide is at 59.73%, with raw material inventory at 3,000 tons and finished product inventory at 6,000 tons [1] Market Outlook - Overall, the continuous increase in zinc concentrate port inventory and rising processing fees indicate an ongoing surplus in zinc ore [1] - Although zinc ingot inventory has slightly increased, domestic warehouse receipts remain low, suggesting a relatively strong near-term market [1] - In the medium term, limited downstream purchasing and pressure from imported zinc ingots are expected to lead to an accumulation of social inventory, posing a downward risk to zinc prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices have continued to rise, with the Shanghai zinc index increasing by 0.62% to 22,676 yuan/ton, while the London zinc price rose by 18.5 to 2,684.5 USD/ton, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1] Price and Inventory Summary - The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots is 23,180 yuan/ton, with various regional basis prices reported: Shanghai at 175 yuan/ton, Tianjin at 255 yuan/ton, and Guangdong at 430 yuan/ton [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded zinc ingot inventory at 0.32 thousand tons, while domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 85.8 thousand tons [1] - LME zinc ingot inventory stands at 182.3 thousand tons, with 31.7 thousand tons in canceled warrants [1] Market Dynamics - The domestic zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) is 3,450 yuan/metal ton, while the import TC is 40 USD/dry ton [1] - Zinc concentrate port inventory is at 287 thousand physical tons, and factory inventory is at 596 thousand physical tons [1] - The operating rate for galvanized structural components is 62.44%, with raw material inventory at 16 thousand tons and finished product inventory at 388 thousand tons [1] Future Outlook - Zinc mine inventory is increasing, and treatment charges are on the rise, maintaining expectations of oversupply in the zinc concentrate market [1] - Zinc ingot inventory is decreasing, with monthly differentials remaining high, indicating relative strength in the near term [1] - However, it is anticipated that downstream purchasing will gradually weaken after the peak seasons, coupled with pressure from imported zinc ingots, leading to potential accumulation of social inventory and downward risks for zinc prices [1]