Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In July 2025, zinc prices fluctuated upward. However, the domestic zinc industry data is weak, with zinc ore inventories increasing and downstream consumption weakening. Overseas, the market has lowered expectations for subsequent monetary easing, and LME zinc inventories have decreased, but the contango has shown a downward trend. Domestic black commodity sentiment has also declined. Overall, the previous factors supporting zinc prices have weakened, and the risk of a subsequent decline in zinc prices has increased [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: As of August 7, SHFE zinc weighted closed up 1.03% at 22,585 yuan/ton, with total positions decreasing by 59,000 to 209,700 lots. LME zinc 3S closed up 2.66% at $2,815.5/ton, with total positions decreasing by 15,500 to 192,900 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,510 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: Domestic social inventories continued to accumulate to 113,200 tons, and SHFE zinc futures inventories were 13,800 tons. The basis in Shanghai was -35 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was -30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc inventories were 89,200 tons, and LME zinc cancelled warrants were 43,100 tons. The cash - 3S contract basis was -$9.79/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$16.46/ton [11]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME ratio was 1.122, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,638.03 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $79/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 263,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 625,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 56.77%, 48.24%, and 56.13% respectively [11]. - **Overall Outlook**: Zinc ore inventories continued to accumulate, and TC increased rapidly. SMM estimated that domestic refined zinc production in August 2025 would be 621,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,700 tons. Downstream operating rates declined significantly last week, and short - term zinc consumption weakened. The risk of a decline in zinc prices is expected to rise [11]. 2. Macro Analysis The report presents multiple macro - related charts, including the US fiscal revenue and expenditure, debt, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, and manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, but does not provide specific text analysis [14][16][19]. 3. Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In July 2025, zinc ore production was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.68% and a month - on - month increase of 7.53%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc ore production was 2,080,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.27%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 330,000 dry tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 32.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 2,533,500 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.0% [25]. - **Total Zinc Ore Supply**: In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 471,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.8%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 2,873,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.5% [27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In July 2025, zinc ingot production was 603,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.1% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc ingot production was 3,843,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.7%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 38,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% and a month - on - month increase of 50.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 196,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 17.0% [33]. - **Total Zinc Ingot Supply**: In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% and a month - on - month increase of 8.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 3,436,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.5% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.77%, with raw material inventories of 13,000 tons and finished product inventories of 344,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloys was 48.24%, with raw material inventories of 9,000 tons and finished product inventories of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 56.13%, with raw material inventories of 2,000 tons and finished product inventories of 6,000 tons [40]. - **Apparent Demand**: In June 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 607,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.0%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 3,375,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.7% [42]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In June 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 15,400 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 61,000 tons [53]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In May 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 39,800 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 47,300 tons [56]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: Domestic social inventories continued to accumulate to 113,200 tons. SHFE zinc futures inventories were 13,800 tons. The basis in Shanghai was -35 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was -30 yuan/ton [61]. - **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc inventories were 89,200 tons, and LME zinc cancelled warrants were 43,100 tons. The cash - 3S contract basis was -$9.79/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$16.46/ton [64]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME ratio was 1.122, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,638.03 yuan/ton [67]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long positions of the top 20 in SHFE zinc declined rapidly. The net long positions of investment funds in LME zinc increased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises also increased. From the perspective of positions, it is bearish [70].

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices experienced a slight decline last week, with domestic and international market indicators showing mixed signals regarding supply and demand dynamics [1] Market Performance - As of last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index rose by 0.05% to 22,048 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 230,200 contracts [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc price increased by 23 to 2,622.5 USD/ton, with total open interest at 213,200 contracts [1] Inventory and Supply - Domestic zinc ingot inventory recorded 1,900 tons, while social inventory decreased slightly to 83,300 tons [1] - LME zinc ingot inventory stood at 170,700 tons, with 66,800 tons of canceled warrants [1] - Zinc concentrate port inventory reached 371,000 physical tons, and factory inventory was at 583,000 physical tons [1] Processing Fees and Costs - Domestic zinc concentrate processing fee is at 3,500 CNY/metal ton, while the import processing fee is at 40 USD/dry ton [1] Downstream Demand - The operating rate for galvanized structural components is at 60.87%, with raw material inventory at 15,000 tons and finished product inventory at 37,800 tons [1] - The operating rate for die-casting zinc alloys is at 54.60%, with raw material inventory at 13,000 tons and finished product inventory at 9,000 tons [1] - The operating rate for zinc oxide is at 59.73%, with raw material inventory at 3,000 tons and finished product inventory at 6,000 tons [1] Market Outlook - Overall, the continuous increase in zinc concentrate port inventory and rising processing fees indicate an ongoing surplus in zinc ore [1] - Although zinc ingot inventory has slightly increased, domestic warehouse receipts remain low, suggesting a relatively strong near-term market [1] - In the medium term, limited downstream purchasing and pressure from imported zinc ingots are expected to lead to an accumulation of social inventory, posing a downward risk to zinc prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices have continued to rise, with the Shanghai zinc index increasing by 0.62% to 22,676 yuan/ton, while the London zinc price rose by 18.5 to 2,684.5 USD/ton, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1] Price and Inventory Summary - The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots is 23,180 yuan/ton, with various regional basis prices reported: Shanghai at 175 yuan/ton, Tianjin at 255 yuan/ton, and Guangdong at 430 yuan/ton [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded zinc ingot inventory at 0.32 thousand tons, while domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 85.8 thousand tons [1] - LME zinc ingot inventory stands at 182.3 thousand tons, with 31.7 thousand tons in canceled warrants [1] Market Dynamics - The domestic zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) is 3,450 yuan/metal ton, while the import TC is 40 USD/dry ton [1] - Zinc concentrate port inventory is at 287 thousand physical tons, and factory inventory is at 596 thousand physical tons [1] - The operating rate for galvanized structural components is 62.44%, with raw material inventory at 16 thousand tons and finished product inventory at 388 thousand tons [1] Future Outlook - Zinc mine inventory is increasing, and treatment charges are on the rise, maintaining expectations of oversupply in the zinc concentrate market [1] - Zinc ingot inventory is decreasing, with monthly differentials remaining high, indicating relative strength in the near term [1] - However, it is anticipated that downstream purchasing will gradually weaken after the peak seasons, coupled with pressure from imported zinc ingots, leading to potential accumulation of social inventory and downward risks for zinc prices [1]