Workflow
锌供应短缺
icon
Search documents
沪锌期货早报-20251124
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 02:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that the Shanghai zinc futures contract ZN2601 will experience a fluctuating decline in the short - term, with the market likely to weaken in the short run [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc plate production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, indicating a bullish fundamental situation [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price of zinc was 22,530, with a basis of +140, suggesting a bullish signal [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - On November 21, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,250 tons to 47,325 tons compared to the previous day, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 771 to 72,897 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai zinc futures showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, indicating a bearish trend [2]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main players held a net short position, with short positions decreasing, which is a bearish sign [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes - On November 21, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts totaled 186,892 lots, with a total trading value of 2.10191965 billion yuan. The open interest was 195,244 lots, a decrease of 4,511 lots [3]. 3.7 Spot Market Quotes - On November 21, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remained unchanged, with domestic TC at 2,600 yuan/metal ton and imported comprehensive TC at 90 US dollars/dry ton. The prices of 0 zinc in different regions varied, with prices in Shanghai ranging from 22,480 - 22,580 yuan/ton, in Guangdong from 22,280 - 22,380 yuan/ton, in Tianjin from 22,405 - 22,505 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang from 22,455 - 22,555 yuan/ton [4]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From November 10 to November 20, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets decreased from 162,000 tons to 159,800 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons compared to November 17 [5]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On November 21, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities all decreased by 40 yuan/ton [12]. 3.10 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On November 21, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters all increased by 10 yuan/ton [15]. 3.11 Refined Zinc Production Statistics - In October 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The production exceeded the planned value by 2.88%, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.33%. The planned production for November was 522,300 tons [17]. 3.12 Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc futures contract zn2601 on November 21, the total trading volume of members was 135,976 lots, an increase of 62,090 lots compared to the previous day. The total long position was 69,110 lots, an increase of 883 lots, and the total short position was 64,028 lots, an increase of 2,921 lots [21]. 3.13 Short - term Technical Analysis - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures closed with a negative line, with increasing trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, and the increase in short positions was more significant. Technically, the price was above the long - term moving average, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator declined and was operating in the weak zone. The trend indicator declined, with the long - side strength decreasing and the short - side strength increasing, and the long - and short - side forces were in a stalemate [22].
沪锌期货早报-20251121
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 01:30
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall zinc market shows a complex situation with a mix of bullish, neutral, and bearish factors. The short - term view suggests that the zinc market may experience a period of oscillatory consolidation, and the Shanghai zinc contract ZN2512 is expected to oscillate and decline [2][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August, it was 8.4457 million tons, indicating a bullish factor [2] - The basis with a spot price of 22,570 and a basis of +190 is also a bullish factor [2] 2. Market Data on November 20 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes - For the zinc futures on November 20, different delivery months showed various price changes. For example, the ZN2512 contract had a previous settlement of 22,410, an opening price of 22,455, a high of 22,495, a low of 22,380, and a closing price of 22,380, with a decline of 30 [3] Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes - The domestic spot market for zinc showed different prices in different regions. For 0 zinc, the price in Shanghai was 22,520 - 22,620 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 22,270 - 22,370 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 22,400 - 22,500 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 22,440 - 22,540 yuan/ton [4] National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From November 10 - 20, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in the main markets decreased from 162,000 tons on November 10 to 159,800 tons on November 20. Compared with November 13, it decreased by 13,000 tons, and compared with November 17, it decreased by 25,000 tons [5] Futures Exchange Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On November 20, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 46,075 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory warehouse receipts decreased by 1,646 tons to 73,668 tons [2][7] Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On November 20, the prices of zinc concentrate with a 50% grade in different regions such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Kunming were between 18,000 - 18,500 yuan/ton, and there was no price change [10] Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter, Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan, and Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium all increased by 10 yuan/ton on November 20 [13] Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - In October 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 524,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The planned production for November is 522,300 tons [15] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On November 20, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% grade in different regions were between 2,400 - 3,100 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 90 US dollars/thousand tons, with a decrease of 10 US dollars/thousand tons [17] Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the ZN2512 contract on November 20, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guotai Junan. In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures [18] 3. Short - term Market Outlook - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc oscillate and decline, with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, with short positions reducing more. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, the short - term indicator KDJ is rising and operating in the weak zone, and the trend indicator is declining while the long - position strength is rising and the short - position strength is declining. The market may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, and the ZN2512 contract is expected to oscillate and decline [20]
沪锌期货早报-20251111
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile decline in the previous trading session, and the short - term market may experience volatile consolidation. The price of Shanghai zinc ZN2512 is expected to decline with fluctuations. [19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Fundamental Analysis - In August 2025, the global zinc plate production was 1150700 tons, and the consumption was 1171700 tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21000 tons. From January to August 2025, the global zinc plate production was 9088500 tons, and the consumption was 9369800 tons, with a supply shortage of 281300 tons. In August 2025, the global zinc ore production was 1069600 tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8445700 tons, which is a bullish factor. [2] - The spot price of zinc was 22690, and the basis was +20, showing a neutral situation. [2] - On November 10, the LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 34900 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 601 tons to 69869 tons, which is a bearish factor. [2] - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile decline in the previous trading session, closing above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which is a bullish factor. [2] - The main positions were net short, and the short positions increased, which is a bearish factor. [2] - The LME inventory warrants remained at a low level, while the SHFE warrants remained at a high level. [2] 3.2 Zinc Futures Market Quotes on November 10 - The trading volume of zinc futures on November 10 was 153081 lots, and the trading value was 1732292870 yuan. The open interest was 228100 lots, an increase of 1217 lots. [3] 3.3 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on November 10 - The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 2800 yuan/metal ton, and the price of imported zinc concentrate was 100 US dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged. [4] - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 22640 - 22740 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22440 - 22540 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22575 - 22675 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22615 - 22715 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton. [4] 3.4 Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics in Major Markets (October 30 - November 10, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on November 10 was 161500 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared with November 3 and a decrease of 100 tons compared with November 6. [5] 3.5 Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on November 10 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on the SHFE on November 10 were 69869 tons, an increase of 601 tons compared with the previous day. [6] 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution on November 10 - The LME zinc inventory on November 10 was 34900 tons, remaining unchanged compared with the previous day. [7] 3.7 National Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on November 10 - The average price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions was 2800 yuan/metal ton, and the average price of imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 100 US dollars/kiloton. [16] 3.8 Zinc Futures Trading and Position Ranking of SHFE Members on November 10 - For the contract code zn2512, the top three in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guotai Junan Futures. The top three in terms of long positions were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guotai Junan Futures. The top three in terms of short positions were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan Futures, and Dongzheng Futures. [17] 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The actual production of refined zinc in October 2025 was 524300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The planned production for November is 522300 tons. [14]
锌产业周报-20251024
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 10:43
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: October 24, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Bullish Factors - Global zinc supply remains in a continuous shortage, supporting a bullish market sentiment [3] - Social inventories have decreased slightly, spot supplies are tight, and demand is relatively stable [3] Bearish Factors - China's refined zinc production has increased significantly year-on-year, and high mining processing fees have added supply pressure [3] - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in China continues, and the fundamentals are relatively weak [3] Trading Advisory View - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in Shanghai zinc dominates the current market. Low inventories provide limited support, but the contradiction is dulled [3] Summary by Directory Processing and End - User Demand - The report presents data on the market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and weekly production of galvanized sheet coils, as well as the net export seasonality of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide [4][7][9] - It also includes data on real estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and unsold area, as well as land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities and the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - sized cities [12][14][16] - In addition, it shows the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) [17] Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Data on the monthly import volume seasonality of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, monthly production seasonality of SMM zinc ingots, and the combined monthly production and import volume seasonality of Chinese zinc ingots are provided [20][22][23] - Information on zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc weekly inventory futures, and exchange zinc ingot inventory is also included [26][27] Futures and Spot Market Review - The report shows the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc closing price and the US dollar index, and the premium/discount of LME zinc [29][30][31] - It also presents the seasonality of LME zinc (spot/three - month) premium/discount, the seasonality of Tianjin zinc ingot basis, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [34][35][38]
锌产业周报-20250919
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 10:34
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: September 19, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Global zinc supply shortage supports a relatively strong price [3] - Clear fundamental bullish factors, with the supply - demand structure favoring zinc prices, but the market reaction on the trading board is weak [3] Bearish Factors - The spot basis has been continuously negative (Shanghai -70 yuan/ton), indicating a weak spot market [3] - Weak downstream demand and average trading volume suppress the upward momentum of prices [3] Trading Consultation Viewpoint - The fundamentals are bullish, but the market performance on the trading board is contrary to expectations, and the market reaction is weaker than expected. Risks need to be vigilant [3] Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - Analyzed the market sentiment index, inventory, production, and net export/import of galvanized steel coils, die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets, and zinc oxide, as well as real - estate development investment, engineering progress, sales, and land transactions, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [4][6][9] Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Studied the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, processing fees, zinc ingot production, enterprise production profits, raw material inventory days, and exchange inventories [19][21][22] Futures and Spot Market Review - Reviewed the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc futures, trading volume, open interest, the relationship between LME zinc prices and the US dollar index, basis trends, etc [27][28][29]
沪锌期货早报-20250617
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 02:24
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc ZN2507 is expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase. The previous trading day saw a volatile rebound in Shanghai zinc, with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, but the reduction of short positions was more significant. Technically, the price is below the moving average system, lacking moving average support. Short - term indicators are in a weak area, and the trend indicators show that both long and short forces are declining, resulting in a stalemate between the two [2][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In March 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.0874 million tons, consumption was 1.1335 million tons, with a supply shortage of 46,000 tons. From January to March, production was 3.2831 million tons, consumption was 3.3848 million tons, with a supply shortage of 101,600 tons. In March, global zinc ore production was 1.0078 million tons, and from January to March, it was 2.9611 million tons, presenting a bullish signal [2]. - The basis of spot zinc is +180 (spot price is 22,020), indicating a bullish sign [2]. - On June 16, LME zinc inventory decreased by 775 tons to 130,225 tons, while SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 994 tons to 9,966 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile rebound but closed below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending downward, indicating a bearish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are decreasing, also indicating a bearish signal [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (June 16) - For different delivery months of zinc futures, prices generally showed a downward trend. For example, the contract 2507 opened at 21,950, closed at 21,840, with a decline of 110 compared to the previous settlement price [3]. 3. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (June 16) - The price of zinc concentrate in Linwaicun was 16,960 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot was 22,020 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet was 3,924 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe was 4,276 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,550 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 26,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Suzhou was 20,450 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linqiaozhou was 7,880 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (May 22 - June 16, 2025) - As of June 16, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 570,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous Thursday and a decrease of 41,000 tons compared to the previous Monday [5]. 5. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (June 16) - In Shanghai, the total warrant increase was 322 tons; in Guangdong, the total warrant was 3,932 tons, a decrease of 203 tons; in Tianjin, the total warrant was 5,712 tons, an increase of 875 tons. The overall warrant increased by 994 tons to 9,966 tons [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution (June 16) - The total LME zinc inventory was 130,225 tons, a decrease of 775 tons compared to the previous day. The注销仓单 accounted for 44.60% [7]. 7. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (June 16) - Not detailed in the provided content, only the title is given [8] 8. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (June 16) - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all decreased by 240 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter Group was 22,360 yuan/ton; from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 24,000 yuan/ton; from Guangdong Zhongquan Lingnan was 22,090 yuan/ton; from Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium was 21,790 yuan/ton; from Henan Yuguang Gold & Lead was 22,130 yuan/ton; from Gansu Baiyin Non - ferrous was 22,080 yuan/ton [12]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in May 2025 - The planned production in May was 444,100 tons, the actual production was 422,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.74%. The production was 4.86% lower than the plan, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.00%. The planned production in June is 453,700 tons [14]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (June 16) - The processing fees in different regions showed different trends. For example, in Mingdao Island, Longnan, and Shenyang, the average processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate increased by 200 yuan/metal ton; in Jiyuan, Yuanshanzhou, and Chifeng, it increased by 100 yuan/metal ton [16]. 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (June 16) - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of 20 futures companies was 254,734 lots, a decrease of 39,964 lots compared to the previous trading day. In terms of long positions, the total long positions were 75,787 lots, a decrease of 3,574 lots. In terms of short positions, the total short positions were 80,132 lots, a decrease of 5,024 lots [17].