Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing, there is no obvious contradiction, raw material tightness and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro "anti - involution" sentiment in China is fluctuating, the zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, demand is in the off - season, inventory continues to accumulate, and overseas LME zinc inventory is decreasing, providing some support. Short - term zinc prices are expected to move in a range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,700 yuan/ton with 0.00% change, Shanghai lead futures main contract closing price is 16,850 yuan/ton with a 0.48% increase, and the basis is - 150 yuan/ton with a - 80 yuan change [1]. - Futures active contract trading volume is 32,601 lots with a - 28.53% change, and the position is 51,207 lots with a - 0.32% change [1]. - LME inventory is 261,100 tons with 0.00% change, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 61,784 tons with 0.00% change [1]. - LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) is 1,981 dollars/ton with a - 0.45% change, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio is 8.51 with a 0.93% increase [1]. Industry News - From August 8th to August 14th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 68.07%, a 0.67 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 41%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of lead battery enterprises was 67.3%, a 2.05 - percentage - point increase [1]. - On August 14th, [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 40.87 dollars/ton, and the position was 154,530 lots, an increase of 682 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise and difficult to fall, but it has not had a substantial impact on smelter operations. Previously - shut - down smelters are gradually resuming production, and primary lead operations are rising steadily [1]. - For secondary lead, the price of waste lead batteries is likely to rise and difficult to fall, recyclers' supplies are limited, and stores are reluctant to sell due to bullish sentiment. Some smelters have cut or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversion, with overall operations at a relatively low level and firm quotations, and a slight decline in operations [1]. - On the demand side, the terminal market has not improved significantly, the peak - season effect has not been reflected, dealers mainly digest inventory, and production enterprises produce according to sales [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,380 yuan/ton with a - 0.27% change, Shanghai zinc futures main contract closing price is 22,505 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase, and the basis is - 125 yuan/ton with a - 85 yuan change [1]. - Futures active contract trading volume is 83,222 lots with a 6.65% increase, and the position is 76,347 lots with a - 5.51% change [1]. - LME inventory is 76,325 tons with 0.00% change, and Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 20,020 tons with a 17.10% increase [1]. - LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) is 2,796.5 dollars/ton with a - 1.62% change, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio is 8.05 with a 1.76% increase [1]. Industry News - From August 8th to August 14th, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 58.54%, a 1.19 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 47.61%, a 0.81 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.95%, a 1.27 - percentage - point increase [1]. - Last week, the total inventory of zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 354,000 physical tons, a 46,000 - ton increase from the previous week [1]. - On August 14th, [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 40.87 dollars/ton, and the position was 154,530 lots, an increase of 682 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, zinc ore processing fees are rising continuously. Last week, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remained flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc ore processing fee index rose to 90.3 dollars/dry ton. With continuous easing of raw materials, zinc concentrate processing fees are expected to continue rising in August, cost - side support is weakening, smelter profits and production enthusiasm are improving, and production volume is showing an obvious upward trend [1]. - On the demand side, last week zinc prices fluctuated within a narrow range, downstream enterprises mainly consumed existing inventory. The price of black metals showed a good trend, and some end - users stocked up due to concerns about future production cuts, driving an increase in galvanized operations [1].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: May 21, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with downward pressure on prices. The macro - positive sentiment has faded, and the market has returned to being anchored by fundamentals. The supply of zinc concentrates remains loose, and the supply of refined zinc is also abundant. The demand side is in the off - peak season, and the relaxation of tariff policies has limited impact on downstream demand [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review - **Futures Market**: Shanghai zinc futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. The main contract 2506 closed at 22,435 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.13%. There was a reduction in volume and a shift in positions. The position of contract 06 decreased by 8,930 lots to 76,630 lots, while that of contract 07 increased by 6,521 lots to 92,994 lots. The Shanghai - London ratio rose to 8.48, and the spot import loss narrowed by 105.95 yuan to - 280.16 yuan/ton [7]. - **Spot Market**: Downstream bargain - hunting replenishment improved spot procurement. The spot premiums in three regions remained stable. Shanghai and Tianjin had premiums of 280 and 260 yuan/ton respectively over contract 06, and Guangdong had a premium of 305 yuan/ton over contract 07, with a discount of 110 yuan/ton compared to Shanghai [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of zinc concentrates remained loose. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee in May rose to 3,500 yuan/metal ton, and domestic zinc mine production increased seasonally from May to June, with room for further increase in processing fees. Refined zinc supply was also abundant, and imported goods flowed in in May. Social inventories increased slightly last week and decreased by 0.25 tons to 8.38 tons at the beginning of this week [7]. 2. Industry News - **Price and Premium in Different Regions on May 20, 2025**: - **Overall Market**: 0 zinc's mainstream transaction price was concentrated between 22,660 - 22,745 yuan/ton, double - swallow brand between 22,960 - 23,045 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc between 22,590 - 22,675 yuan/ton. The morning market quoted a premium of 40 - 60 yuan/ton over the average price [8]. - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream brand 0 zinc's transaction price was around 22,660 - 22,725 yuan/ton, with a premium of 260 yuan/ton over contract 2506 and 30 yuan/ton over Shanghai spot [8]. - **Tianjin Market**: 0 zinc ingot's mainstream transaction price was between 22,580 - 22,730 yuan/ton, and high - end brands had different premiums over contract 2506. Tianjin was about 20 yuan/ton cheaper than Shanghai [8][9]. - **Guangdong Market**: 0 zinc's mainstream transaction price was between 22,685 - 22,810 yuan/ton, with a premium of 305 yuan/ton over contract 2507 and a discount of 110 yuan/ton compared to Shanghai spot. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on the price trends of zinc in two markets, the SHFE monthly spread, the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, and the LME zinc inventory, but specific data analysis is not elaborated in the text [7][11][17]

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 20 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2506 | 22480 | 22455 | 22565 | 22380 | -70 | -0.31 | 85560 | -8786 | | 沪锌 | 2507 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the given report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy faces downward pressure as indicated by the significant decline in the Texas manufacturing index, leading to a weaker and volatile US dollar index [1][12]. - From late April to mid - May, treasury bond futures are expected to perform better than in the second half of April, and the strategy of buying on dips has increased cost - effectiveness [2][19]. - Steel prices are likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the market being rational and cautious about administrative production cuts [3][22]. - For zinc, the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose, and the logic of shorting on rallies is maintained, while attention should be paid to controlling positions due to potential impacts on the domestic manufacturing PMI from tariffs [4][45]. - Oil prices are fluctuating downward as the market awaits further clarification of OPEC+ policies [5][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Texas manufacturing index dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating continued downward pressure on the US economy and a bearish outlook for the US dollar index in the short term [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Treasury has raised its borrowing estimates for the second and third quarters. Although the market has temporarily set aside concerns about long - term debt sustainability, the sustainability of the risk - preference repair needs further observation due to the emerging impact of tariffs [14][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank's deputy governor mentioned the potential for timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The market's core contradiction lies between the un - falsifiable expectation of loose monetary policy and the uncertainty of the implementation time of such policies. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying long - term treasury bond futures on dips [18][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Shanghai's major projects are accelerating. Steel prices are in a volatile pattern. The market is waiting for details of administrative production - control policies. It is recommended to view steel prices with a short - term oscillatory perspective and maintain a hedging mindset on rallies [21][23]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - In the East China market, coking coal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Although there is some support for prices in the short term due to reduced supply and pre - holiday restocking demand, the medium - to long - term trend remains bearish [24][25]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - After the price decline, attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Southwest China during the wet season and the silicon wafer production schedule from May to June. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [28]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rate of organic silicon monomers is expected to decline. The supply side may see marginal changes due to price drops. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions and wait for clear signals before considering bottom - fishing [29]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Some salt factories plan to reduce production, but the demand is not expected to exceed expectations. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy in the second quarter [30][31]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - Macro factors have a relatively neutral short - term impact on copper prices, while the short - term fundamentals are strong, supporting copper prices and the premium. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to the Shanghai copper inter - period positive spread strategy [34][35]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - It is recommended to wait for dips to buy nickel, pay attention to position management, and hedge beta risks due to potential macro - sentiment fluctuations [38][39]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - The short - term bearish logic for lead is dominant. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rallies and take profit on the internal - external reverse spread [40][41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - In the short term, zinc prices are supported, but the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies near the moving average and maintain a long - term internal - external positive spread strategy [42][45]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - LPG prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the impact of tariff policies and cost - profit squeezes [46][49]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemical (Crude Oil) - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term as the market awaits OPEC+ policies [50][51]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemical (Asphalt) - The fundamentals of asphalt are improving, but the impact on prices is limited due to relatively high inventory levels. It is recommended to wait and see [52][53]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemical (PTA) - PTA prices are expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish in the short term, but the rebound height will be restricted by the demand side in the long term [55][57]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemical (Caustic Soda) - After a short - term rebound, caustic soda prices weakened again, but the room for further decline is relatively limited [58][59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemical (Pulp) - Pulp is expected to be in a weakly oscillatory pattern in the short term due to the large internal - external price gap and lack of significant positive news [60][61]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemical (PVC) - PVC is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term as the short - term macro - impact has subsided [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemical (Styrene) - Styrene prices are oscillating weakly recently. The supply - demand structure is expected to be negatively affected by reduced supply - side disturbances and weakening downstream demand [63][65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip industry shows a situation of both increasing supply and demand. Although there is no significant short - term contradiction, the supply pressure is increasing, and processing margins are under pressure [65][66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemical (Soda Ash) - In the medium term, a bearish view on soda ash is maintained, while short - term attention should be paid to the impact of summer maintenance on the 09 contract [67]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemical (Float Glass) - Glass futures prices are expected to remain in a low - level range due to weak reality and lack of positive policies, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [69][70].