Group 1: Zinc Price Trends - Zinc prices showed a downward trend in the first half of the year, influenced by increasing overseas mine supply and weak demand [2] - From late March to early April, zinc prices further declined due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and a gradual increase in zinc mine output [2] - By April to June, the impact of U.S. tariffs lessened, but low inventory levels continued to affect prices, leading to a weak consolidation phase [2] Group 2: Zinc Supply Dynamics - Global zinc mine production increased by nearly 190,000 tons in the first four months of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, primarily driven by the resumption of overseas mines [3] - Domestic zinc mine production decreased by nearly 30,000 tons year-on-year, slightly below expectations [3] - The cash cost of zinc mines at the 90th percentile is approximately $2,000 per ton, indicating a profit margin of nearly 30% based on average zinc prices [3] Group 3: Smelting and Refining Insights - Global zinc ingot production decreased by about 106,000 tons year-on-year in the first four months, with China's production down nearly 130,000 tons [3] - Zinc concentrate inventory at smelting plants increased by nearly 22% year-on-year by June, reaching historical highs [4] - The processing fee for zinc concentrate in China has risen to over 3,600 yuan per metal ton, indicating a recovery trend [4] Group 4: Demand Factors - Infrastructure investment remains stable, with significant growth in the electricity sector and a rebound in public facilities, while the transportation sector shows weakness [5] - The real estate market continues to be at a low point, with a declining share of zinc demand expected in 2025 [5] - Automotive production, sales, and exports have shown strong growth, but there are concerns about a potential slowdown in demand in the second half of the year [5] Group 5: Export Trends - Zinc product exports surged in the first half of the year due to U.S. tariff policies, with notable increases in galvanized sheets and zinc alloys [7] - However, as the export rush subsides and tariffs are implemented, there may be downward pressure on exports of primary zinc products [7] - Overall, the zinc market is expected to transition from a tight supply situation to a more relaxed one, with a clearer downward trend in zinc prices anticipated for 2025 [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: May 19, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views Bullish Factors - High spot premiums are maintained, and refineries' reluctance to sell has led to a shortage of circulating supplies, supporting zinc prices [3]. - The US economic recovery and demand growth have exceeded expectations, and the easing of China-US tariffs has boosted market sentiment [3]. Bearish Factors - Domestic zinc smelters have strong production momentum, and the smooth resumption of overseas projects has increased supply-side pressure [3]. - Imported zinc ingots are arriving at ports, causing spot premiums to weaken. Weak demand during the off-season has suppressed prices [3]. Trading Advisory View - The fundamentals of the domestic zinc market provide limited support. The growth in supply and off-season demand are in a tug-of-war, and the market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [3]. Section Summaries Processing and End-User Demand - The report presents various data on the zinc processing and end-user demand sectors, including the market sentiment index, inventory, production, and trade data of galvanized steel coils, galvanized sheets (strips), die-cast zinc alloys, and other products. It also shows data on real estate development investment, sales, and infrastructure fixed asset investment [5][6][7][11][13][15][17]. Futures and Spot Market Review - The report includes data on the price trends of domestic and international zinc futures, trading volume, open interest, and the relationship between LME zinc prices and the US dollar index. It also presents information on the LME term structure, zinc ingot basis, and other aspects [21][22][24]. Supply and Supply-Side Profits - The report provides data on zinc concentrate imports, processing fees, zinc ingot production, enterprise production profits, raw material inventory days, and inventory levels of zinc in LME and SHFE [31][33][34][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Domestic social inventory has dropped to 83,300 tons, entering the destocking cycle. Tight spot supply supports prices [3]. - Spot premium remains at a high level (Shanghai basis is 480 yuan/ton). The tight situation on the spot side restricts the downside space of zinc prices [3]. Bearish Factors - Zinc ore imports have increased, and rising processing fees have promoted the repair of smelting profits, leading to an increase in smelter output [3]. - The downstream has entered the traditional off - season, and export orders are restricted by tariff policies, weakening demand support [3]. Trading Advisory Viewpoint - The fundamentals of the domestic zinc market provide limited support. The growth in supply and off - season demand are in a tug - of - war, and it may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Processing and Terminal Demand - Multiple data on zinc - related products are presented, including the market sentiment index, inventory, production, and net export seasonality of galvanized coils, galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, etc. Also, data on real estate development investment, engineering progress, land transactions, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment are provided [5][12][17] Futures and Spot Market Review - Information on the trading volume, open interest, and price trends of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc is presented, as well as the relationship between LME zinc prices and the US dollar index, and the term structure and basis trends of LME zinc and domestic zinc [22][23][25] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Data on zinc concentrate imports, processing fees, zinc ingot production, enterprise production profits, and inventory are provided, including the inventory of zinc concentrates, LME zinc, and SHFE zinc [33][36][38]