Core Viewpoint - The company predicts that tin prices will likely remain in a range-bound fluctuation due to mixed macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - There is an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Ongoing trade tensions between China and the U.S. contribute to cautious market sentiment [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Domestic large smelters in China are expected to resume tin ingot production in October [1] - However, raw material supply remains tight, providing support for supply [1] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Demand appears weak, with no improvement in orders noted [1] - Downstream inventory replenishment is cautious due to high tin prices, resulting in limited transactions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing limited movement with the main contract rising by 0.08% to 273,980 yuan/ton, influenced by a combination of declining domestic production and weak consumer demand [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major smelting enterprises have initiated routine maintenance, leading to a noticeable decline in domestic production, while consumer demand remains weak [1] - Domestic tin inventory is high, while overseas inventory is at historical lows, creating a mixed market sentiment with limited driving forces [1] - The supply of tin ore remains tight, with delays in actual output from Myanmar expected until the fourth quarter due to seasonal and equipment supply issues [1] Group 2: Production and Supply - Domestic smelting plants are operating at low capacity, particularly in Yunnan, where raw material shortages persist [1] - Some previously shut-down enterprises are preparing to resume production, but another leading company is undergoing maintenance, suggesting an overall decline in production [1] Group 3: Pricing and Demand - Recent fluctuations in tin prices have seen a slight decline, with smelting plants showing a willingness to sell, but actual transactions remain limited [1] - Traders are actively quoting prices, noting that while tin prices have slightly decreased, they remain high, and downstream purchasing interest is weak [1] - Downstream orders continue to decline, with current consumption levels in the off-season, particularly in home appliances and photovoltaic sectors [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing fluctuations around the 260,000 yuan per ton mark, with a slight decline of 0.07% in the main contract, closing at 263,000 yuan per ton. The market is currently in a vacuum period with strong supply realities but weak expectations, limiting the upward potential of tin prices [1] - The operating rates of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi remain low, with a combined operating rate of only 46.84% as of last week. The processing fees for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan have dropped to historical lows, severely squeezing profit margins and forcing some enterprises to reduce production or undergo maintenance [1] - In Jiangxi, there is a shortage of recycled tin raw materials, with the recovery of waste tin post-Spring Festival falling below 70% of the annual average, and electronic waste supply decreasing by 30% month-on-month. This situation is exacerbated by policy uncertainties regarding recycled resources [1] Group 2 - In May 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates reached 13,448.80 physical tons (equivalent to 6,752.11 metal tons), marking a year-on-year increase of 98.56% and a month-on-month increase of 44.70%. However, the import volume remains at historical lows, indicating a slight alleviation of domestic raw material supply shortages [2] - The main increases in imports are concentrated in Africa and South America, particularly from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, and Bolivia. Conversely, imports from Myanmar saw a significant decline, with May figures showing a 37.13% month-on-month decrease and a 32.01% year-on-year decrease [2] - The market outlook suggests a weakening supply and demand scenario, with smelting plants facing reduced operating rates due to insufficient tin concentrate supply. Additionally, the end of the solar market's installation phase may lead to a sharp decline in orders for tin bar manufacturers, making it difficult for tin prices to exhibit a clear trend [2]