锡价区间震荡

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需求端持续低迷 沪锡区间震荡【9月2日SHFE市场收盘评论】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 07:56
对于后市,金瑞期货评论表示,云锡本次检修属前期规划内安排,对市场实际销量扰动有限;同时,高 价对消费的抑制仍在,当前整体消费尚未显现旺季特征,短期锡价大概率延续区间震荡,预计短期延续 震荡格局。 沪锡窄幅波动,主力合约收涨0.08%,报273980元/吨。龙头冶炼企业启动年内常规检修,国内产量下滑 明显,但是消费端未见明显好转,终端表现疲软,国内库存偏高,海外库存处于历史低位,多空因素交 织,市场驱动有限,沪锡延续区间震荡格局。 锡矿供应偏紧格局维持,虽然缅甸佤邦部分企业获采矿许可,但受雨季及设备供应延迟影响,SMM预 计实际出矿量推迟至四季度,非洲矿虽增量但运输周期长且品位波动大,难以缓解短期紧缺。国内冶炼 厂开工率维持低位,云南地区原料短缺问题依旧严峻。有部分前期检修企业筹备复产,但另外一家龙头 企业停产检修,生产对冲后,整体产量或维持下降态势。 (文华综合) 近日锡价震荡回落,冶炼厂出货意愿尚可,实际成交有限。贸易商方面积极入市报价,多反馈当前锡价 虽小幅下滑,但整体仍处高位,下游接货意愿不强,成交整体仍维持刚需,市场整体交投表现平平。下 游订单水平维持下滑态势,当前处于下游消费水平淡季,锡相关消费较往 ...
缅甸复产节奏缓慢 沪锡区间波动【6月25日SHFE市场收盘评论】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-25 07:47
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing fluctuations around the 260,000 yuan per ton mark, with a slight decline of 0.07% in the main contract, closing at 263,000 yuan per ton. The market is currently in a vacuum period with strong supply realities but weak expectations, limiting the upward potential of tin prices [1] - The operating rates of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi remain low, with a combined operating rate of only 46.84% as of last week. The processing fees for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan have dropped to historical lows, severely squeezing profit margins and forcing some enterprises to reduce production or undergo maintenance [1] - In Jiangxi, there is a shortage of recycled tin raw materials, with the recovery of waste tin post-Spring Festival falling below 70% of the annual average, and electronic waste supply decreasing by 30% month-on-month. This situation is exacerbated by policy uncertainties regarding recycled resources [1] Group 2 - In May 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates reached 13,448.80 physical tons (equivalent to 6,752.11 metal tons), marking a year-on-year increase of 98.56% and a month-on-month increase of 44.70%. However, the import volume remains at historical lows, indicating a slight alleviation of domestic raw material supply shortages [2] - The main increases in imports are concentrated in Africa and South America, particularly from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, and Bolivia. Conversely, imports from Myanmar saw a significant decline, with May figures showing a 37.13% month-on-month decrease and a 32.01% year-on-year decrease [2] - The market outlook suggests a weakening supply and demand scenario, with smelting plants facing reduced operating rates due to insufficient tin concentrate supply. Additionally, the end of the solar market's installation phase may lead to a sharp decline in orders for tin bar manufacturers, making it difficult for tin prices to exhibit a clear trend [2]