数据来源：海关总署 据中国海关数据统计，中国2025年10月锡矿砂及其精矿进口量为11,632.30吨，环比增加33.51%，同比 减少22.36%。当月从刚果（金）进口锡矿砂及其精矿2,700.36吨，环比上升124.16%，同比下降7.43%。 缅甸锡矿供应恢复缓慢，当月从缅甸进口锡矿砂及其精矿2,366.81吨，环比减少24.55%，同比减少 61.61%。 （文华综合） ...

| | 2025年10月(吨) | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刚果民主共和国 | 2,700.36 | 124.16% | -7.43% | | 缅甸 | 2.366.81 | -24.55% | -61.61% | | 玻利维亚 | 1,828.35 | 152.00% | -24.97% | | 澳大利亚 | 1.363.51 | 69.67% | 2.95% | | 尼日利亚 | 1.237.90 | -8.94% | -7.96% | | 老挝 | 360.58 | 237.52% | 1258.64% | | 俄罗斯 | 297.29 | 88.20% | | | 马来西亚 | 288.51 | 22.32% | 133.26% | | 吉尔吉斯斯坦 | 270.23 | -15.65% | 383.62% | | 卢旺达 | 267.09 | 181.82% | -- | | 委内瑞拉 | 214.61 | -7.56% | 165.60% | | 印度尼西亚 | 181.91 | -13.60% | 169.85% | | 越南 | 137.32 ...

Supply Dynamics - The supply side has been a crucial factor influencing tin prices, with prices surpassing 290,000 yuan due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, reaching a six-month high [2] - Following the reduction of supply disruptions in Indonesia, tin prices have retreated to around 280,000 yuan, but the market is currently overestimating the price based on valuation lines [2] - China's imports of tin ore and concentrates for September 2025 reached 8,713.60 physical tons (approximately 3,444.62 metal tons), marking a year-on-year decline of 11.87% and a month-on-month decline of 26.59%, the lowest level this year [2] Import Trends - In September, imports from Myanmar increased significantly, with 3,136.76 tons (approximately 848.91 metal tons) imported, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.55% and a month-on-month increase of 43.00% [5] - Other major supply countries, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, and Nigeria, saw a notable decline in supply, with total imports from these countries down 22.30% year-on-year and 36.66% month-on-month [7] - The decline in imports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Australia was attributed to shipping delays rather than a decrease in local production [8] Market Outlook - The overall supply situation remains tight, with domestic tin supply not significantly improving, which continues to restrict the operating levels of smelting enterprises [9] - Despite a seasonal recovery in production expected in October, the motivation for sustained increases in operating rates is lacking due to ongoing tightness in raw material supply and low processing fees [9] - The market is closely monitoring the recovery of production in the Wa region of Myanmar, which is gradually returning to normal, although current output remains below expectations [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing fluctuations around the 260,000 yuan per ton mark, with a slight decline of 0.07% in the main contract, closing at 263,000 yuan per ton. The market is currently in a vacuum period with strong supply realities but weak expectations, limiting the upward potential of tin prices [1] - The operating rates of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi remain low, with a combined operating rate of only 46.84% as of last week. The processing fees for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan have dropped to historical lows, severely squeezing profit margins and forcing some enterprises to reduce production or undergo maintenance [1] - In Jiangxi, there is a shortage of recycled tin raw materials, with the recovery of waste tin post-Spring Festival falling below 70% of the annual average, and electronic waste supply decreasing by 30% month-on-month. This situation is exacerbated by policy uncertainties regarding recycled resources [1] Group 2 - In May 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates reached 13,448.80 physical tons (equivalent to 6,752.11 metal tons), marking a year-on-year increase of 98.56% and a month-on-month increase of 44.70%. However, the import volume remains at historical lows, indicating a slight alleviation of domestic raw material supply shortages [2] - The main increases in imports are concentrated in Africa and South America, particularly from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, and Bolivia. Conversely, imports from Myanmar saw a significant decline, with May figures showing a 37.13% month-on-month decrease and a 32.01% year-on-year decrease [2] - The market outlook suggests a weakening supply and demand scenario, with smelting plants facing reduced operating rates due to insufficient tin concentrate supply. Additionally, the end of the solar market's installation phase may lead to a sharp decline in orders for tin bar manufacturers, making it difficult for tin prices to exhibit a clear trend [2]