短期宏观氛围积极， 预计锡价震荡运行 锡月报 2026/01/04 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：11月国内进口锡精矿增量明显，原料端供应紧缺有所缓解。2025年11月锡矿砂及其精矿进口量为15,099吨，环比增长29.81%，同比 上升24.42%。第一大进口来源地缅甸，当月进口7,190.21吨，环比增加203.79%，同比增加133.38%；第二大进口来源地刚果民主共和国，当 月进口3,225.34吨，环比增长19.45%，同比减少21.27%。 ◆ 供给端：缅甸佤邦锡矿复产逐步推进，出口量增幅明显，但目前云南地区冶炼企业原材料紧张现象仍存，短期开工率持稳，进一步上行动力 不足。江西地区则因废料显著减少，粗锡供应不足，精锡产量延续偏低水平。综合而言，原料不足的 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that China's imports of tin ore and concentrates in November 2025 showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.67% but a month-on-month increase of 12.73% [1] - Imports from Myanmar significantly increased, with a total of 7,190.21 tons (approximately 1,636.05 metal tons), marking a year-on-year increase of 92.16% and a month-on-month increase of 89.94% [1] - The total imports from other countries, excluding Myanmar, amounted to 7,909.13 tons (approximately 3,941.99 metal tons), reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 17.29% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.58% [1] Group 2 - The cumulative imports of tin concentrates from January to November reached approximately 118,100 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.88% [1] - The significant increase in tin ore imports from Myanmar indicates a gradual recovery in production resumption [1]

Core Insights - China's import volume of tin ore and concentrates in November 2025 reached 15,099.34 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 29.81% and a year-on-year increase of 24.42% [1] Import Sources - Myanmar was the largest source of imports, with 7,190.21 tons imported in November 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 203.79% and a year-on-year increase of 133.38% [1] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo ranked second, with imports of 3,225.34 tons, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 19.45% but a year-on-year decrease of 21.27% [1] Detailed Import Data - The following table summarizes the import data by origin for November 2025: - Myanmar: 7,190.21 tons (MoM: +203.79%, YoY: +133.38%) [1] - Democratic Republic of the Congo: 3,225.34 tons (MoM: +19.45%, YoY: -21.27%) [1] - Nigeria: 1,478.33 tons (MoM: +19.41%, YoY: +37.61%) [1] - Australia: 978.68 tons (MoM: -28.22%, YoY: -48.89%) [1] - Bolivia: 391.60 tons (MoM: -78.58%, YoY: -24.45%) [1] - Russia: 296.19 tons (MoM: -0.45%) [1] - Laos: 291.05 tons (MoM: -19.28%, YoY: -16.55%) [1] - Kyrgyzstan: 196.93 tons (MoM: -27.12%, YoY: -25.29%) [1] - Rwanda: 172.75 tons (MoM: -35.17%, YoY: +164.31%) [1] - Tanzania: 136.69 tons (MoM: +294.66%, YoY: +466.63%) [1] - Brazil: 131.95 tons [1] - Vietnam: 127.87 tons (MoM: -6.88%, YoY: -53.43%) [1] - Indonesia: 94.56 tons (MoM: -48.02%, YoY: -10.82%) [1] - Mongolia: 53.07 tons (MoM: +165.34%, YoY: -37.33%) [1] - Other countries included various smaller amounts with notable changes [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In November, tin prices continued to strengthen under the influence of supply disturbances at the mine end, reaching a new high for the year. Although the current demand in the tin market is weak, with low downstream inventories and limited bargaining power, supply - side disturbances are the determining factor for short - term prices. Therefore, it is more likely that tin prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term [11][13]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In October, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was slightly alleviated. However, the recent deterioration of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has disrupted tin ore transportation, raising market concerns. In October, the import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632 physical tons (equivalent to about 4,938 metal tons), a year - on - year decrease of 15.74% and a month - on - month increase of 43.36% [12]. - Supply side: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, has been slow, with low export volumes. Smelting enterprises in Yunnan still face a shortage of raw materials, and their short - term operating rates are stable but lack further upward momentum. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap materials, the supply of crude tin is insufficient, and refined tin production remains at a low level. Overall, it is expected that the overall operating level of smelters in the two regions will be difficult to further improve in the short term [11][12]. - Demand side: Although the consumption in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate is slightly weak, the long - term demand expectations brought by emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers support tin prices. In the peak season, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight recovery in October. In October, the domestic integrated circuit output was 4.18 billion pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.7%. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. Recently, due to the large short - term price increase, downstream acceptance is limited, and inventories have increased significantly. This week, the total social inventory of tin ingots in major Chinese regions was 8,245 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last week [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented [17][19][20]. 3.3 Cost Side No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including the monthly output of Chinese tin ore, import volume, tin concentrate price, and tin concentrate processing fee [22][24][26]. 3.4 Supply Side No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin production and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export [28][30][32][36][38][39]. 3.5 Demand Side - The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [45]. - No specific text analysis content provided for other indicators, only relevant data graphs are presented, including domestic computer and smartphone production, output of household appliances (washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, color TVs), China's photovoltaic cell output and photovoltaic installation, domestic key enterprise tin - plated strip production, domestic PVC monthly output, downstream solder enterprise operating rate, and domestic apparent tin consumption [42][44][47][49][51][53][55][57]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance (Inventory) No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including Chinese social inventory and LME inventory [59][60][61].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the changes in China's tin ore and concentrate imports for October 2025, showing a month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decrease [1] - In October 2025, China's total imports of tin ore and concentrates reached 11,632.30 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 33.51% but a year-on-year decrease of 22.36% [1] - Imports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) saw a significant month-on-month increase of 124.16%, totaling 2,700.36 tons, although this represents a year-on-year decline of 7.43% [1] Group 2 - Tin ore supply from Myanmar is recovering slowly, with imports in October 2025 amounting to 2,366.81 tons, which is a month-on-month decrease of 24.55% and a year-on-year decrease of 61.61% [1]

Core Insights - In October 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates reached 11,632.30 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 33.51% but a year-on-year decrease of 22.36% [1] Import Sources - The Democratic Republic of the Congo was the largest source of imports, supplying 2,700.36 tons, which is a significant month-on-month increase of 124.16% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.43% [1] - Myanmar ranked second, with imports of 2,366.81 tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 24.55% and a year-on-year decrease of 61.61% [1] - Bolivia saw a month-on-month increase of 152.00% in imports, totaling 1,828.35 tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 24.97% [1] - Australia contributed 1,363.51 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 69.67% and a year-on-year increase of 2.95% [1] - Laos experienced a remarkable month-on-month increase of 237.52%, totaling 360.58 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 1258.64% [1] Additional Import Data - Other notable sources include Nigeria (1,237.90 tons, -8.94% MoM, -7.96% YoY), Malaysia (288.51 tons, +22.32% MoM, +133.26% YoY), and Rwanda (267.09 tons, +181.82% MoM) [1] - The total import volume for October 2025 reflects a diverse range of sources, with significant fluctuations in both month-on-month and year-on-year comparisons across different countries [1]

Supply Dynamics - The supply side has been a crucial factor influencing tin prices, with prices surpassing 290,000 yuan due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, reaching a six-month high [2] - Following the reduction of supply disruptions in Indonesia, tin prices have retreated to around 280,000 yuan, but the market is currently overestimating the price based on valuation lines [2] - China's imports of tin ore and concentrates for September 2025 reached 8,713.60 physical tons (approximately 3,444.62 metal tons), marking a year-on-year decline of 11.87% and a month-on-month decline of 26.59%, the lowest level this year [2] Import Trends - In September, imports from Myanmar increased significantly, with 3,136.76 tons (approximately 848.91 metal tons) imported, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.55% and a month-on-month increase of 43.00% [5] - Other major supply countries, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, and Nigeria, saw a notable decline in supply, with total imports from these countries down 22.30% year-on-year and 36.66% month-on-month [7] - The decline in imports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Australia was attributed to shipping delays rather than a decrease in local production [8] Market Outlook - The overall supply situation remains tight, with domestic tin supply not significantly improving, which continues to restrict the operating levels of smelting enterprises [9] - Despite a seasonal recovery in production expected in October, the motivation for sustained increases in operating rates is lacking due to ongoing tightness in raw material supply and low processing fees [9] - The market is closely monitoring the recovery of production in the Wa region of Myanmar, which is gradually returning to normal, although current output remains below expectations [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing fluctuations around the 260,000 yuan per ton mark, with a slight decline of 0.07% in the main contract, closing at 263,000 yuan per ton. The market is currently in a vacuum period with strong supply realities but weak expectations, limiting the upward potential of tin prices [1] - The operating rates of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi remain low, with a combined operating rate of only 46.84% as of last week. The processing fees for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan have dropped to historical lows, severely squeezing profit margins and forcing some enterprises to reduce production or undergo maintenance [1] - In Jiangxi, there is a shortage of recycled tin raw materials, with the recovery of waste tin post-Spring Festival falling below 70% of the annual average, and electronic waste supply decreasing by 30% month-on-month. This situation is exacerbated by policy uncertainties regarding recycled resources [1] Group 2 - In May 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates reached 13,448.80 physical tons (equivalent to 6,752.11 metal tons), marking a year-on-year increase of 98.56% and a month-on-month increase of 44.70%. However, the import volume remains at historical lows, indicating a slight alleviation of domestic raw material supply shortages [2] - The main increases in imports are concentrated in Africa and South America, particularly from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, and Bolivia. Conversely, imports from Myanmar saw a significant decline, with May figures showing a 37.13% month-on-month decrease and a 32.01% year-on-year decrease [2] - The market outlook suggests a weakening supply and demand scenario, with smelting plants facing reduced operating rates due to insufficient tin concentrate supply. Additionally, the end of the solar market's installation phase may lead to a sharp decline in orders for tin bar manufacturers, making it difficult for tin prices to exhibit a clear trend [2]