Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, under the background of supply tightening, tin prices are expected to fluctuate, with the price movement range between 360,000 - 500,000 yuan per ton. It is not recommended to chase high now. If the tin price adjusts later, it can be continuously concerned. In the medium - term, if the resumption and new production in the main tin - producing areas go smoothly, tin supply and demand may ease but still maintain a tight balance, with increasing callback risks and high - level fluctuations in tin prices. In the long - term, with obvious increase in mine supply and strong demand, the central price of tin is expected to show an upward trend [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On February 27, 2026, tin prices continued to rise sharply. The Shanghai tin main contract rose 8.88% to 453,240 yuan per ton. The main reason for the rise is the intensification of armed conflicts in Myanmar, which has caused concerns about tin ore supply. However, the conflict mainly occurred in non - main tin - producing areas, so it is considered that it will not have an obvious impact on tin ore production for the time being [3] 2. Fundamental Situation - Currently, the domestic mine end is in a tight situation, which restricts the output of refined tin. As of February 13, the processing fee for 60% grade tin ore is 10,000 yuan per ton, and that for 40% grade is 14,000 yuan per ton, remaining at a relatively low level. In January, domestic refined tin output was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.74%; the domestic tin smelter start - up rate was 56.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points. Recently, the explicit inventory of tin has accumulated. As of February 26, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory was 11,556 tons, and the LME tin inventory was 7,575 tons [4] 3. Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the mine end is continuously tightening, resulting in raw material shortages for smelters and low tin ore processing fees, making it difficult to increase refined tin output. In terms of demand, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, consumption in new energy vehicles and other fields continues to rise, and considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand is expected to continue to grow [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term tin ore supply shortage marginally improves, but high - priced tin demand is restricted, and the upward pressure on tin prices increases, with a risk of adjustment at high levels. In the medium term, global tin supply support weakens, domestic tin ore raw materials tend to be loose, but tin prices will fluctuate at high levels due to the recovery cycle of consumption in the semiconductor and new energy fields. Later, attention should be paid to the recovery of Burmese tin mines and domestic supply - demand conditions [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - Tin Concentrate - In November, domestic tin ore imports were 15,099 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.43% and a month - on - month increase of 29.8%. Imports from Myanmar were 7,190 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133%. Although the current import volume is still below the average in recent years, the recovery is expected to accelerate. However, the short - term domestic tin ore supply shortage continues, and domestic tin ore processing fees remain low. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi is 8,000 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous month [3] 3.2 Fundamental Situation - Supply - In November 2025, China's refined tin output was 15,490 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. The cumulative output from January to November was 158,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The pressure on domestic smelting remains, the raw material inventory of domestic smelters is generally less than 30 days, and the operating rate of smelting enterprises is difficult to increase. It is expected that the refined tin output in December will increase slightly month - on - month. In November, China imported 1,195 tons of tin ingots, a month - on - month increase of 127.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 66%; the export of refined tin was 1,948 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3% and a year - on - year increase of 32.3%. Currently, the Shanghai - London ratio fluctuates, and tin imports remain at a loss. In November, Indonesia's refined tin exports were 7,458.64 tons, a month - on - month increase of 182.20%. Due to the impact of RKAB approval, supply is expected to be restricted in the first quarter of next year [3] 3.3 Fundamental Situation - Consumption - Demand in traditional consumption fields is sluggish, but the semiconductor industry maintains high growth in the medium term, and consumption in fields such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles continues to rise. In the short term, tin prices fluctuate at high levels, market trading is continuously restricted, downstream caution intensifies, and there is a high level of wait - and - see sentiment. In the short term, domestic inventories continue to grow, and the actual shipment pressure remains high. It is expected that short - term consumption will continue to lag [4] 3.4 Fundamental Situation - Domestic Spot and Inventory - As of November 19, the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory increased by 704 tons to 8,095 tons. The social inventory was 10,181 tons, and the inventory continued to rise month - on - month, remaining at a medium level. The average spot price of tin in the Yangtze River was 337,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6,160 yuan, or 1.86%. The premium of the Yangtze River spot over the tin main contract changed to a discount, with a basis of - 1,040 yuan last Friday [4] 3.5 Fundamental Situation - LME Spot and Inventory - As of November 19, the LME tin weekly inventory continued to increase by 975 tons to 4,645 tons, at a relatively high level in the past five years. The LME tin spot premium weakened, with a discount of $11 last weekend [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas low inventory of tin ingots still supports tin prices. After the resumption of domestic maintenance enterprises, supply increases, but limited by the tightness of the ore end, the increase in supply is restricted. The improvement of downstream demand falls short of expectations. It is expected that there will be little change in the supply - demand situation, and tin prices may continue to fluctuate at a high level. Later, attention should be paid to the recovery of Burmese mines and the improvement of domestic demand [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Situation Tin Concentrate - In September, China's tin ore imports were 8,713.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13% and a year - on - year increase of 10.92%. Imports from Myanmar were 3,136.76 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49.9%. Although Burmese tin mines are gradually resuming production, the absolute import volume from Myanmar remains low, and the overall domestic import volume in September decreased month - on - month, so the domestic tin ore supply shortage continues. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, and the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi is 8,000 yuan/ton, also unchanged month - on - month [3] Supply - In September 2025, SMM estimated that China's refined tin production was about 10,620 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.71%. Some domestic enterprises carried out maintenance in September, and the capacity utilization rate further declined. Last week, according to SMM, the operating rate of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increased by 20.63% week - on - week to 50.35%. The seasonal maintenance work of large - scale smelters in Yunnan has basically ended, but the recovery is only a phased repair, and the overall operating level is still at a historical low. In September, China imported 1,501 tons of tin ingots, a month - on - month increase of 4.38%, and exported 1,789 tons of refined tin, a month - on - month increase of 6.78%. Currently, the Shanghai - London price ratio is fluctuating slightly higher, and tin imports remain in a loss state. Indonesia exported 4,844.21 tons of refined tin in September, ending three consecutive months of decline, 1.14% lower than the average level in the past four years. The Indonesian government plans to adjust the RKAB approval cycle from once every three years to once a year, requiring enterprises to resubmit relevant documents in October 2025, so there is great uncertainty in Indonesia's exports in the later period [4] Consumption - The peak season is not prosperous. The downstream demand side remains sluggish, with weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets and a significant decrease in orders. The year - on - year data of tinplate production continues to be weak, and the growth rate of tinplate exports is also declining. After the adjustment of tin prices, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream enterprises has weakened, and some merchants have made rigid purchases at low prices. However, the overall order situation has shown poor growth recently, and it was once relatively dull. According to merchants, the current shipment situation has improved, but the consumption side still needs further improvement [4] Domestic Spot and Inventory - As of October 17, the inventory of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 188 tons to 5,691 tons. The social inventory was 7,925 tons, ending three consecutive months of decline and increasing month - on - month, and the inventory was lower than the average level. The average price of Yangtze River spot tin closed at 281,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7,450 yuan, a decline of 2.58%. The basis of Yangtze River spot tin against the main contract fluctuated between premiums and discounts, and the basis was 0 last Friday [5] LME Spot and Inventory - As of October 17, the weekly inventory of LME tin continued to increase by 325 tons to 27,350 tons, still lower than the average level in recent years. The LME spot discount widened, and the discount was - 142 US dollars last weekend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term tin price has been fluctuating around the 260,000 yuan line, and there is pressure on short - term upward movement [5][40]. - The supply side is generally tight, with no significant changes in the short term. The full - scale resumption of normal mining in the Wa State is expected to take about two months. The domestic consumption has certain resilience, but the short - term fundamentals lack strong driving forces, and the market is mainly driven by macro - sentiment [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The US comprehensive data is better than expected, which has an impact on the price. The European comprehensive PMI is almost zero - growth, and Germany and France are in recession. The initial jobless claims in the US last week led to an increase in the orders of durable goods, which was higher than expected [5]. - A Federal Reserve official hinted that interest rate cuts might be possible in April, but emphasized maintaining patience in the face of high uncertainty [5]. - The supply side is generally tight. The resumption of work in the Wa State's mines is still in progress, and it is expected to take about two months to fully resume normal mining. The domestic consumption has certain resilience, and the inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level. The short - term fundamentals lack strong driving forces, and the market is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. The short - term tin price is oscillating around 260,000 yuan, and there is pressure on short - term upward movement [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish factors**: Domestic consumption has certain resilience, the US dollar index is at a low level, and market sentiment has improved [7]. - **Bearish factors**: There is an expectation of an increase in tin ore supply, and domestic inventory is at a high level [7]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply and demand balance**: In February 2025, the global refined tin production was 27,700 tons, consumption was 26,600 tons, with a supply surplus of 1,100 tons. From January to February 2025, the global refined tin production was 52,300 tons, consumption was 54,800 tons, with a supply shortage of 2,500 tons. In February 2025, the global tin ore production was 25,600 tons. From January to February 2025, the global tin ore production was 51,200 tons [9]. - **Price and basis**: This week, the tin futures price rose slightly, the spot price increase was greater than that of the futures, the basis of Shanghai tin was 1,190 yuan/ton, changing from a discount to a premium; the LME tin premium was 169 US dollars/ton, and the discount range narrowed [12]. - **Smelter operating rate**: As of April 18, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi was 56.96%. In Yunnan, the import of tin ore has been declining, and the raw material inventory cycle has been compressed. In Jiangxi, the supply of scrap has a structural break, and the recycling volume of recycled tin has decreased [15]. - **Tin ore import**: From January to February, the domestic cumulative import of tin ore was 158,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 50.15%. The import from Myanmar decreased by 81.07% year - on - year, and the imports from Congo (Kinshasa) and Australia also decreased [19]. - **Refined tin production**: In March 2025, China's refined tin production was 15,080 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The supply chain of tin concentrate and scrap tin is tight, restricting production capacity [21]. - **Tin import and export**: From January to February 2025, the cumulative import of unforged non - alloy tin was 4,203 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6%. The cumulative export was 4,504 tons, a year - on - year increase of 124%. In February, tin ingot trade turned into a net export of 504 tons [26]. - **Downstream consumption**: In March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and the new energy vehicle sales accounted for 42.4% of the total vehicle sales. By the end of March, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity increased by 14.6% year - on - year, and the solar power generation installed capacity increased by 43.4% year - on - year. In March, the domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 124% year - on - year [32]. - **Tin solder production**: In March, the tin solder production of domestic sample enterprises was 7,428 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.07%, and the total sample operating rate was 70.90%. The expected production in April is about 8,500 tons, an increase of 14.43% compared with March, and the expected operating rate is 75.27%, an increase of 6.16% compared with March [34]. - **Inventory**: The latest inventory level of LME tin last week was 2,810 tons, the lowest in the past two years. As of the week of April 18, the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory decreased by 7.76% week - on - week to 9,571 tons [37]. 3.4后市研判 - The short - term tin price will continue to oscillate around the 260,000 yuan line, and there is pressure on short - term upward movement [40].