沪锡高位或有调整风险 基本面情况 锡精矿：海关总署数据显示11月份国内锡矿进口量为15099吨，同比增长24.43%，环比增加29.8%；缅甸进口量为 7190吨，同比增加133%。缅甸进口锡精矿进口回升明显，虽目前仍在近年来均值水平之下，预计后续恢复将加快。 但短期国内锡矿供应紧张延续，国内锡矿加工费维持低位。国内40%锡精矿加工费（云南）12000元/吨，环比持平。 60%锡精矿加工费（广西）8000元/吨，环比持平。 供应：2025年11月，中国精炼锡产量15490吨，同比下降6.0%，环比下降0.8%，1-11月累计产量15.8万吨，同比下 降1.7%。目前国内冶炼端压力未解，国内冶炼厂原料库存普遍低于30天，后续冶炼企业开工率难以增长，预计12月 精炼锡产量环比小幅回升。11月中国锡锭进口1195吨，环比增加127.2%，同比下降66%；精锡出口1948吨，环比增 加30.3%，同比增加32.3。目前沪伦比价震荡，锡进口维持亏损状态。11月印尼精炼锡出口7458.64吨，环比上升 182.20%，由于受RKAB审批影响，预计明年一季度供应仍将受到限制。 消费: 传统消费领域需求不畅，但中期半导体行业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas low inventory of tin ingots still supports tin prices. After the resumption of domestic maintenance enterprises, supply increases, but limited by the tightness of the ore end, the increase in supply is restricted. The improvement of downstream demand falls short of expectations. It is expected that there will be little change in the supply - demand situation, and tin prices may continue to fluctuate at a high level. Later, attention should be paid to the recovery of Burmese mines and the improvement of domestic demand [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Situation Tin Concentrate - In September, China's tin ore imports were 8,713.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13% and a year - on - year increase of 10.92%. Imports from Myanmar were 3,136.76 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49.9%. Although Burmese tin mines are gradually resuming production, the absolute import volume from Myanmar remains low, and the overall domestic import volume in September decreased month - on - month, so the domestic tin ore supply shortage continues. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, and the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi is 8,000 yuan/ton, also unchanged month - on - month [3] Supply - In September 2025, SMM estimated that China's refined tin production was about 10,620 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.71%. Some domestic enterprises carried out maintenance in September, and the capacity utilization rate further declined. Last week, according to SMM, the operating rate of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increased by 20.63% week - on - week to 50.35%. The seasonal maintenance work of large - scale smelters in Yunnan has basically ended, but the recovery is only a phased repair, and the overall operating level is still at a historical low. In September, China imported 1,501 tons of tin ingots, a month - on - month increase of 4.38%, and exported 1,789 tons of refined tin, a month - on - month increase of 6.78%. Currently, the Shanghai - London price ratio is fluctuating slightly higher, and tin imports remain in a loss state. Indonesia exported 4,844.21 tons of refined tin in September, ending three consecutive months of decline, 1.14% lower than the average level in the past four years. The Indonesian government plans to adjust the RKAB approval cycle from once every three years to once a year, requiring enterprises to resubmit relevant documents in October 2025, so there is great uncertainty in Indonesia's exports in the later period [4] Consumption - The peak season is not prosperous. The downstream demand side remains sluggish, with weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets and a significant decrease in orders. The year - on - year data of tinplate production continues to be weak, and the growth rate of tinplate exports is also declining. After the adjustment of tin prices, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream enterprises has weakened, and some merchants have made rigid purchases at low prices. However, the overall order situation has shown poor growth recently, and it was once relatively dull. According to merchants, the current shipment situation has improved, but the consumption side still needs further improvement [4] Domestic Spot and Inventory - As of October 17, the inventory of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 188 tons to 5,691 tons. The social inventory was 7,925 tons, ending three consecutive months of decline and increasing month - on - month, and the inventory was lower than the average level. The average price of Yangtze River spot tin closed at 281,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7,450 yuan, a decline of 2.58%. The basis of Yangtze River spot tin against the main contract fluctuated between premiums and discounts, and the basis was 0 last Friday [5] LME Spot and Inventory - As of October 17, the weekly inventory of LME tin continued to increase by 325 tons to 27,350 tons, still lower than the average level in recent years. The LME spot discount widened, and the discount was - 142 US dollars last weekend [5]