近期镍价破位下跌引发市场关注，本轮下跌的核心驱动是什么？下方空间还有多少？ 我们认为，临近年底，今年矿端收紧预期基本落空，同时市场对需求的预期较为悲观，基本面过剩矛盾是镍价下破震荡区间的核心 原因。 展望后市，虽有资源端政策扰动，但镍仍处于供应放量的景气下行周期，明年原生镍供需平衡或有改善，但下游高镍固态电池产量 释放时点未至，传统需求增长难以兼顾消化精炼镍供应以及存量高库存，预计2026年镍价中枢有望下移至10-11万元附近。 策略上宜持空头思路，盘面短期快速下跌后卖出虚值看涨期权相对稳健，单边空头策略仍具备机会。 行情回顾：镍价破位下跌 01 11月以来，镍价一路走低，沪镍接连跌破12万、11.8万元的前期支撑位，并在11月18日继续跌破11.5万元，刷新4月贸易冲突以来 的低点，也创下近三年来的最低价格。 镍价打破震荡区间下跌的原因是什么？镍的新一轮下跌行情开启了吗？ 镍价破位下行 来源 | 兴业期货 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 破位下跌核心驱动一：供需矛盾持续激化 02 镍产业链各条线均面临过剩问题，导致过剩镍元素持续流向附加值最高的精炼镍环节。"镍铁-不锈钢"传统条线，镍铁高成本产能仍在 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - The recent decline in nickel prices is due to the superposition of fundamental pressures, with the continuous weakness of ferronickel prices being the direct cause and the decline in nickel sulfate demand exacerbating the surplus expectation of refined nickel [2][5][12]. - The short - term support level for nickel prices may be around 115,000 yuan/ton, but it is not recommended to buy at this level [12]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Recent Nickel Price Decline - Recently, nickel prices broke through the previous shock platform, with the Shanghai nickel main contract closing at 117,080 yuan/ton on November 14, a decline of 2.16%, and the LME nickel at $14,860/ton, a weekly decline of 1.07% [5]. - The decline is due to the continuous growth of refined nickel inventory since October, the accelerated decline of ferronickel prices since November, the expected increase in refined nickel supply, and the weakening demand for nickel sulfate [5]. Weak Ferronickel Price and High - Ice Nickel Conversion Expectation - Stainless steel demand is weak, driving down ferronickel prices. As of November 14, the domestic high - nickel pig iron ex - factory price has dropped to around 900 yuan/nickel point [7]. - The price deviation between refined nickel and ferronickel has led to a higher premium of refined nickel, increasing the expectation of ferronickel conversion to high - ice nickel. High - ice nickel production reached 36,000 tons in October and is expected to increase in November [7]. Weakening Nickel Sulfate Demand - Affected by the over - expected growth of new energy vehicles, ternary battery production was strong in the third quarter, but nickel sulfate demand may have reached its annual high seasonally [9]. - The cancellation of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in 2026 may lead to a decline in new energy vehicle sales, and a significant drop in the premium of nickel sulfate over refined nickel may push intermediates into the refined nickel market, exacerbating the surplus expectation [9]. Short - Term Support for Nickel Prices - The continuous weakness of ferronickel prices and the decline in nickel sulfate demand are the main reasons for the decline of refined nickel prices [12]. - The current ferronickel profit level is at an absolute low, and the ferronickel price may be close to a phased low. The corresponding nickel price support level is around 115,000 yuan/ton [12].