格隆汇1月7日｜伦镍日内下跌2.00%，现报18080.00美元/吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have broken down due to a combination of supply-demand imbalances and pessimistic demand expectations, with projections indicating a potential price drop to around 100,000-110,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [1][30]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Conditions - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend since November, breaking key support levels and reaching the lowest prices in nearly three years [3][4]. - The recent decline in nickel prices is attributed to a persistent oversupply in the market, particularly in the refined nickel segment, exacerbated by weak demand in the stainless steel sector [5][11]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The nickel industry is facing significant oversupply, with refined nickel production in China maintaining a high growth rate of around 33% over the past two years, while downstream demand remains limited [11][12]. - Current inventories of refined nickel are at elevated levels, nearing the highs seen during periods of low demand in 2020 [15][28]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite potential policy disruptions from resource countries, the likelihood of significant reductions in nickel ore production is low, maintaining a bearish outlook for prices [28][30]. - The anticipated increase in high-nickel solid-state battery production is not expected until 2027, further complicating the demand recovery for refined nickel [1][17]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A bearish strategy is recommended, with opportunities for selling out-of-the-money call options following the recent rapid price decline [2][30].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - The recent decline in nickel prices is due to the superposition of fundamental pressures, with the continuous weakness of ferronickel prices being the direct cause and the decline in nickel sulfate demand exacerbating the surplus expectation of refined nickel [2][5][12]. - The short - term support level for nickel prices may be around 115,000 yuan/ton, but it is not recommended to buy at this level [12]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Recent Nickel Price Decline - Recently, nickel prices broke through the previous shock platform, with the Shanghai nickel main contract closing at 117,080 yuan/ton on November 14, a decline of 2.16%, and the LME nickel at $14,860/ton, a weekly decline of 1.07% [5]. - The decline is due to the continuous growth of refined nickel inventory since October, the accelerated decline of ferronickel prices since November, the expected increase in refined nickel supply, and the weakening demand for nickel sulfate [5]. Weak Ferronickel Price and High - Ice Nickel Conversion Expectation - Stainless steel demand is weak, driving down ferronickel prices. As of November 14, the domestic high - nickel pig iron ex - factory price has dropped to around 900 yuan/nickel point [7]. - The price deviation between refined nickel and ferronickel has led to a higher premium of refined nickel, increasing the expectation of ferronickel conversion to high - ice nickel. High - ice nickel production reached 36,000 tons in October and is expected to increase in November [7]. Weakening Nickel Sulfate Demand - Affected by the over - expected growth of new energy vehicles, ternary battery production was strong in the third quarter, but nickel sulfate demand may have reached its annual high seasonally [9]. - The cancellation of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in 2026 may lead to a decline in new energy vehicle sales, and a significant drop in the premium of nickel sulfate over refined nickel may push intermediates into the refined nickel market, exacerbating the surplus expectation [9]. Short - Term Support for Nickel Prices - The continuous weakness of ferronickel prices and the decline in nickel sulfate demand are the main reasons for the decline of refined nickel prices [12]. - The current ferronickel profit level is at an absolute low, and the ferronickel price may be close to a phased low. The corresponding nickel price support level is around 115,000 yuan/ton [12].