Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: Overseas, focus on the impact of US tariffs; domestically, watch the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. Suggest going long on IF index futures on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expect interest rates to decline in the long - term. Consider the stock - bond seesaw effect and go long on dips [4][5]. - **Precious Metals**: Maintain a bullish view on silver. Suggest going long on silver and provide reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures [6]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be weak. For example, copper, aluminum, and zinc are under pressure, while lead shows relative strength [8][9][10]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel prices may be affected by policies and demand. Iron ore prices are short - term strong. Glass and soda ash have different trends based on supply and demand [21][23][25]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy chemicals have different trends. For example, rubber may be bullish in the medium - term, while crude oil is in a multi - empty game [34][39]. - **Agricultural Products**: The livestock market is in a stalemate, and the egg market is expected to be stable. The soybean meal market is multi - empty intertwined, and the oil market is expected to fluctuate [52][53][55]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Equity Index**: In June, M2, M1, and M0 had different growth rates. The central bank will adjust policies according to the situation. The central bank will conduct a 1400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. Overseas, focus on US tariffs; domestically, watch the July meeting. Suggest going long on IF index futures on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Monday, bond futures declined. In June, social financing and money supply grew. The central bank will conduct a 1400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. China's exports and imports increased in June. Expect interest rates to decline in the long - term, and consider the stock - bond seesaw effect [4][5]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined slightly. Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts are mixed. Maintain a bullish view on silver and provide reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures [6]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper. LME and domestic inventories increased. Expect copper prices to be weak and volatile [8]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories increased more than expected. Expect aluminum prices to be weak in the short - term [9]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc ore supply is loose. Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term and fluctuate in the short - term [10][11]. - **Lead**: Lead supply is relatively loose, but battery demand is improving. LME lead shows strength, while Shanghai lead's upside is limited [12]. - **Nickel**: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel iron prices are under pressure. Suggest going short on nickel on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: Supply is low, and demand is weak. Expect tin prices to be weak and volatile [14]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Lithium prices rebounded. Supply is expected to remain high. Suggest paying attention to news and market sentiment [15]. - **Alumina**: Alumina prices rose slightly. Suggest going short on rallies considering the over - capacity situation [16]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is the traditional off - season for stainless steel. Supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [17]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: It is the off - season. Supply and demand are weak. Prices face resistance [18][19]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly. Supply and demand decreased, and inventories are at a low level. Follow policy signals and demand recovery [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Supply is stable, and demand decreased. Expect prices to be strong in the short - term [23][24]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass prices rebounded due to policy expectations. Soda ash prices are expected to be weak due to supply and inventory pressure [25][26]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Prices rose slightly. Suggest waiting and watching due to the uncertain trend [27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose. The industry has over - supply and insufficient demand. Suggest using the rebound for hedging [31][32]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: NR and RU rose significantly. Suggest a bullish medium - term view and a neutral - to - bullish short - term view [34][38]. - **Crude Oil**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices declined, while INE crude oil prices rose. The market is in a multi - empty game. Suggest waiting and watching [39]. - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to be weak due to supply and demand. Suggest waiting and watching [40]. - **Urea**: Prices have support but limited upside. Suggest going long on dips [41]. - **Styrene**: Prices may follow the cost side. BZN is expected to repair [42]. - **PVC**: Supply exceeds demand. Prices are expected to be weak [44]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand are changing. Prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [45]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is under pressure. Suggest going long on dips following PX [46]. - **Para - xylene**: PX is expected to destock in the third quarter. Suggest going long on dips following crude oil [47]. - **Polyethylene PE**: Prices may fluctuate due to trade policies and inventory [48]. - **Polypropylene PP**: Prices are expected to be bearish in July. LL - PP spread may widen [50]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Pig prices may be stable or decline. Short - term long positions may have space, but there are medium - term risks [52]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are expected to be stable. Suggest waiting for a rebound to go short [53]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are under pressure, and domestic soybean meal is multi - empty intertwined. Suggest going long on dips [54][56]. - **Oils**: EPA policy is positive, but there are still bearish factors. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [57][59]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices may decline. Import pressure may increase [60][61]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices may fluctuate. There are potential bearish factors [62].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 地缘政治和贸易政策均升温 | | 镍 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 上游强势，下游弱势，镍弱势运行 | 参考观点：短线看强 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 核心逻辑：端午节期间，美国贸易政策和全球地缘政治风险再度升温。贸易政策方面： 5 月 30 日特 朗普 ...