来源：市场资讯 201方面，冷热轧续稳，其中 J1四尺冷轧资源锡佛主流报至毛边 7650-7800区间，J2 J5 资源走至毛边 6850-7000附近，代理僵持在盘价，贸易商们按需仍可有窄幅摇摆空间，此时促销意愿仍强烈，反馈则 相对一般。 综上，盘面偏红拱火，不锈市场追高转稳，交投面同步转静，短时行情有反转但保留灵活空间，本月余 下几日颇受考验。 要钢资讯2025年11月26日 16:45江苏 1 3 134 : 公元 公元管道 （来源：佛山市金属材料行业协会） 截至今天 15时，伦镍暂运行在 14850美元/吨附近，沪镍主力合约日盘收涨 1130至117260元/吨，上期所 不锈钢期货主力合约日盘收涨 80至 12455 元/吨，整体保持住了一早就有的盘面趋势，涨幅未进一步强 势扩大，但也各居上行的高位，且看晚间能否突破。 现货方面，早间不锈市场主稳，午后挺价意愿强，随着盘面鼓动，看涨情绪提升。临近月末的接下来几 天，多空博弈或增强，当前让利空间搜索，同时也有明显的上探压力，成交上容易遇阻。 目前从锡佛两地了解，304 民营四尺冷轧资源主流报至毛边 12200-12500 区间，民营五尺热轧大板资源 主流 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The stock market has seen rapid rotation of hot sectors recently, with reduced risk appetite and short - term uncertainty, but the long - term policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market may face short - term risk preference decline, which is conducive to its repair. In the fourth quarter, it is necessary to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall situation may be volatile, and it may repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [7]. - For precious metals, the Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, buying on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, most metal prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as trade negotiation sentiment improvement and supply - side constraints [12][14]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices may be weak in the short term but have long - term upward potential. Iron ore prices will oscillate due to the tug - of - war between weak reality and macro expectations [33][36]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber prices may turn neutral, and crude oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short term [54][56]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of various products such as hogs, eggs, and grains are affected by supply and demand factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [79][81]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. There will be economic and trade consultations between China and the US. The R & D of new - generation batteries is being promoted [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Treasury Bond** - **Market Information**: Bond prices declined on Thursday. There will be China - US economic and trade consultations, and the central government held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for central enterprises. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference decline is beneficial to the bond market repair. The fourth - quarter situation may be volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The US will release September CPI data, and it is expected that the data may be lower than expected, which will support precious metal prices [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy and buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose. LME copper inventory increased, while domestic warehouse receipts decreased. The import of copper spot was at a loss [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to potential supply tightening and improved trade negotiation sentiment, copper prices may remain strong [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to rise. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the external LME aluminum inventory also decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: With the easing of trade tensions and low domestic inventory, aluminum prices may rise further [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and overseas registered zinc warehouse receipts were at a low level [15]. - **Strategy**: The domestic zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and the overseas market had structural risks. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. The lead ore port inventory increased, and the lead ingot social inventory decreased [18]. - **Strategy**: With the improvement of downstream demand and the reduction of inventory, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was weak [19]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly [20][21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices declined slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand from traditional industries was weak [22]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, tin prices may remain high and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. - **Carbonate Lithium** - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rose, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is strong, and the price may face pressure from supply recovery and hedging. It is necessary to pay attention to market changes [24]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rose slightly. The overseas price decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Strategy**: The ore price may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the production capacity of alumina is excessive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel rose. The social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The market confidence has recovered, and the subsequent trend depends on the release of downstream demand [28]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy**: The cost supports the price, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [30]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased marginally [32]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, steel prices are weak, but in the long term, they may rise due to the loosening of the macro environment [33]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. The overseas shipment increased, and the iron water output decreased [34][35]. - **Strategy**: The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The price will oscillate due to the influence of macro expectations [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased. Soda ash prices rose slightly, and the inventory also increased [37][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and soda ash prices will continue to oscillate weakly [37][38]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly. The spot prices were higher than the futures prices [39]. - **Strategy**: The impact of trade frictions may ease. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound in the black sector [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices also rose. The supply of industrial silicon increased, and the polysilicon supply may decrease in the future [44][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices will oscillate, and polysilicon prices will be affected by supply and policy expectations [45][48]. Energy and Chemical - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoon and stock market factors. The demand is in a seasonal off - season [50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and adopt a neutral strategy [54]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The US crude oil inventory decreased, and the SPR inventory increased [55]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [56]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose. The port inventory increased slowly, and the domestic start - up rate decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to potential supply disturbances and high port inventory [58]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand also increased [59][60]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices decreased, and styrene prices increased. The supply of pure benzene was abundant, and the demand for styrene increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short term due to inventory reduction and seasonal demand [62]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The production was high, and the demand was weak [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [64][65]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply was high, and the inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation [67]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand remained stable [68]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to weak processing fees and uncertain terminal demand [69]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: PX prices rose. The load was high, and the downstream demand was weak [70][71]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as there is no obvious driving force and it mainly follows the crude oil trend [72]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The inventory decreased, and the demand increased seasonally [73]. - **Strategy**: PE prices may remain low and oscillate due to high - level warehouse receipts and cost factors [74]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. The supply pressure was high, and the demand rebounded seasonally [75]. - **Strategy**: The overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost supply surplus suppresses the price [76]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs** - **Market Information**: Hog prices fluctuated. The supply and demand were in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, hog prices may be strong, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [79]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight increases. The supply was normal, and the demand was average [80]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may have limited upward space, and it is recommended to wait and see [81]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Soybean meal prices rose. The domestic soybean inventory was high, and the import of US soybeans was uncertain [82]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, there is support, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the expected abundant supply [84]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Oil prices fell. The palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia was high, and the supply pressure was large [85]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for a clearer production signal [86]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the prices of domestic processing factories decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter as the overall supply is expected to increase [89]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded. The new cotton purchase price increased, but the demand was weak [90]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited due to weak fundamentals [91].

Group 1 - As of 20:30, London Metal Exchange (LME) futures prices show a mixed performance among various metals [1] - Nickel prices decreased by 0.10%, while copper prices increased by 0.40% [1] - Lead prices rose by 0.38%, zinc prices increased by 0.95%, and aluminum prices saw a rise of 1.50% [1] - Tin prices experienced a decline of 0.31% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the real-time prices of various metals in the London Metal Exchange as of September 22, 20:30 [1] - Nickel increased by 0.04%, copper by 0.02%, and lead by 0.09% [1] - Zinc saw a significant rise of 1.11%, while aluminum experienced a decline of 0.73%, and tin increased by 0.24% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London metal futures market is experiencing an upward trend across multiple varieties, indicating a positive sentiment in the sector [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of 20:30, the following price changes were noted: - Nickel increased by 1.14% - Copper rose by 0.35% - Lead saw a rise of 0.50% - Zinc went up by 1.06% - Aluminum increased by 0.88% - Tin experienced a rise of 0.47% [1]

Metal Market - As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed positive performance with Shanghai aluminum up 0.48%, copper up 0.59%, zinc up 0.36%, lead up 0.24%, while nickel fell 0.17% and tin rose 0.56% [1] - In the futures market, casting aluminum main contract rose 0.47%, alumina main contract rose 0.41%, lithium carbonate main contract rose 0.29%, and industrial silicon main contract continued its previous day's upward trend with a rise of 1.64% [1] - The black metal sector experienced a general decline, with iron ore down 1.18%, rebar down 0.71%, and stainless steel down 0.39% [1] Foreign Metal Market - As of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed results with copper down 0.16%, nickel down 0.3%, and tin down 0.31%, while aluminum rose 0.13% [1] - In precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.27% and silver fell 0.06%, while Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.26% and Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.2% [1] Futures Market - The Euro line shipping main contract fell 4.08%, closing at 1219 points [2][3] - Various futures showed specific price movements, such as industrial silicon main contract up 1.64% and copper main contract up 0.59% [3] Spot Market and Fundamentals - In the copper market, Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper spot price showed a premium of 0-60 CNY/ton against the current month contract, with an average premium of 30 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 794 billion CNY through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [4] Oil Market - As of 11:39, both WTI and Brent crude oil futures showed slight declines, with WTI down 0.11% and Brent down 0.1% [7] - The EIA reported an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.9 million barrels, contrary to analyst expectations of a decrease [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend with different performances in various sectors. Some sectors are influenced by macro - policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals. For example, the capital market is supported by policies, but short - term fluctuations may occur. In the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but short - term oscillations are likely. In the commodity market, different metals, energy, and agricultural products have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Message**: Two departments clarify tax policies for state - owned equity and cash income transferred to enrich social security funds; Musk says Optimus robots may be widely used in the next few years; Yushu Technology plans to submit an IPO application in Q4; US and UK bond yields rise [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: Different basis ratios are presented for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts [3]. - **Trading Logic**: The policy is supportive of the capital market. After recent continuous rises, short - term market fluctuations may intensify, but the general strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts declined. There are news about visa - free policies for Russia and high UK bond yields. The central bank conducted 2557 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1501 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: Although the manufacturing PMI improved in August but remained below the boom - bust line, and exports may face pressure. With loose funds and weak domestic demand recovery, interest rates are expected to decline, but the bond market may oscillate in the short - term [4][5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver prices rose. The weak US economic data and potential Fed policy changes supported precious metal prices. - **Outlook**: The Fed may enter an unexpected interest - rate cut cycle, which will be beneficial to precious metals. Silver may outperform gold, and the strategy is to go long on silver on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic copper supply pressure was relieved by factors such as tight scrap supply and smelting maintenance. - **Outlook**: With a high probability of Fed rate cuts and strong price support, copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices rose. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory was relatively low, and demand was marginally improving. - **Outlook**: With a dovish Fed signal, aluminum prices are supported. Attention should be paid to inventory changes, and prices may rise if the inventory turns [11]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed a low - level oscillation. Zinc concentrate inventory increased seasonally, and social inventory of zinc ingots continued to rise. - **Outlook**: Despite high Fed rate - cut expectations, the industry is in an oversupply situation, and zinc prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices were expected to strengthen. Lead concentrate inventory decreased, and supply was marginally reduced. - **Outlook**: With high Fed rate - cut expectations, lead prices are expected to run strongly [13][14]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices were weakly oscillating. Nickel iron prices were expected to be stable and strong, and the supply of intermediate products was tight. - **Outlook**: With positive macro - atmosphere and potential policy support, nickel prices have limited downside space. The strategy is to go long on dips [15]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated. Supply decreased significantly due to slow mine复产 and planned smelter maintenance, while demand was in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: Lithium carbonate prices continued to decline. There was a lack of positive drivers, and the market was in a weak adjustment. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to overseas supply and industrial news. The price reference range for the 2511 contract is 70,000 - 74,500 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices rose slightly. Ore supply was disturbed, and futures inventory increased. - **Outlook**: After a sharp decline, the downside space is limited. The strategy is to wait and see. The reference range for the AO2601 contract is 2900 - 3300 yuan/ton [18][19]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices were strong. Concerns about nickel supply and approaching traditional consumption seasons supported prices. - **Outlook**: With the approaching of the consumption season, demand is expected to increase, and prices may rise [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose slightly. The market was transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and costs were supportive. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to run at a high level in the short - term [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Rebar prices rose slightly, and hot - rolled coil prices declined slightly. Production was high, demand was weak, and inventory was accumulating. - **Outlook**: If demand does not improve, prices may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to raw material prices and production restrictions [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Overseas shipments increased, and steel production decreased. - **Outlook**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the impact of steel mill restrictions [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices were stable. Production was high, inventory decreased, and demand was weak. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and may rise if policies are favorable [27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices were stable. Production increased, inventory decreased, and demand was average. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and may rise in the long - term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon prices were weakly oscillating, and ferrosilicon prices declined slightly. - **Outlook**: With the weakening of "anti - involution" sentiment, prices are expected to move towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak before mid - October, and the strategy is to wait and see [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices declined slightly. Supply was increasing, demand was weak, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined slightly. Supply was increasing, and the market was in a "weak reality, strong expectation" situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate highly, and may rise if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU oscillated. Weather in Thailand may push prices up, and there are different views on supply and demand. - **Strategy**: A long - term bullish view. In the short - term, a bullish approach is recommended, and partial closing of the long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 position is suggested [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices rose. Geo - political premiums disappeared, but prices were undervalued. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view, but avoid chasing high prices [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply was increasing, demand was weak, and the market was in a weak state. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [42][43]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices rose. Supply decreased, demand was mainly from exports, and inventory was high. - **Strategy**: A long - position at low prices is recommended [44]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene prices declined, and the basis strengthened. Supply was increasing, demand was improving seasonally, and inventory was high. - **Outlook**: Prices may rebound after inventory decreases [45]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices declined. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and exports were expected to decline. - **Strategy**: A short - position is recommended [47]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: EG prices declined. Supply was increasing, demand was recovering from the off - season, and inventory was expected to increase in the medium - term. - **Outlook**: Prices may decline in the medium - term [48][49]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply was undergoing de - stocking, demand was improving, and processing fees were affected. - **Outlook**: A long - position at low prices following PX is recommended [50]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: PX prices declined. Supply was high, downstream PTA had many unexpected maintenance, and inventory was expected to be low. - **Outlook**: A long - position at low prices following crude oil is recommended [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE prices declined. Cost support exists, supply is limited, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. - **Outlook**: Prices may oscillate upwards [52]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP prices declined. Supply pressure is high, demand is rebounding seasonally, and inventory pressure is high. - **Strategy**: A long - position on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices is recommended [53]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices showed mixed trends. Supply may be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support prices. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, pay attention to low - level rebounds, and consider a far - month reverse spread [55]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable. Supply was high, demand was average, and market sentiment was pessimistic. - **Strategy**: A short - position on the near - month contract on rebounds and a reverse spread are recommended [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans declined, and domestic soybean meal rebounded slightly. Inventory is high, and de - stocking depends on the inflection point of processing volume and arrivals. - **Strategy**: A long - position at low prices within the cost range is recommended [57][58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Three major domestic oils rebounded. Indian palm oil imports were large, and there are multiple factors supporting prices. - **Strategy**: Palm oil may rise in Q4 due to the B50 policy. An oscillating and strengthening view is taken before inventory accumulates and demand feedback is negative [59][60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices oscillated. The global sugar gap is expected to narrow, and domestic supply may increase. - **Strategy**: A bearish view is maintained. The downward space depends on the performance of the external market [61][62]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline, and domestic inventory is low. - **Outlook**: Prices may oscillate at a high level in the short - term [63].

Group 1 - As of 20:30, London nickel increased by 1.44% [1] - London copper decreased by 0.49% [1] - London lead fell by 0.20% [1] - London zinc dropped by 0.68% [1] - London aluminum declined by 0.84% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: Overseas, focus on the impact of US tariffs; domestically, watch the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. Suggest going long on IF index futures on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expect interest rates to decline in the long - term. Consider the stock - bond seesaw effect and go long on dips [4][5]. - **Precious Metals**: Maintain a bullish view on silver. Suggest going long on silver and provide reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures [6]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be weak. For example, copper, aluminum, and zinc are under pressure, while lead shows relative strength [8][9][10]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel prices may be affected by policies and demand. Iron ore prices are short - term strong. Glass and soda ash have different trends based on supply and demand [21][23][25]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy chemicals have different trends. For example, rubber may be bullish in the medium - term, while crude oil is in a multi - empty game [34][39]. - **Agricultural Products**: The livestock market is in a stalemate, and the egg market is expected to be stable. The soybean meal market is multi - empty intertwined, and the oil market is expected to fluctuate [52][53][55]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Equity Index**: In June, M2, M1, and M0 had different growth rates. The central bank will adjust policies according to the situation. The central bank will conduct a 1400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. Overseas, focus on US tariffs; domestically, watch the July meeting. Suggest going long on IF index futures on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Monday, bond futures declined. In June, social financing and money supply grew. The central bank will conduct a 1400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. China's exports and imports increased in June. Expect interest rates to decline in the long - term, and consider the stock - bond seesaw effect [4][5]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined slightly. Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts are mixed. Maintain a bullish view on silver and provide reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures [6]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper. LME and domestic inventories increased. Expect copper prices to be weak and volatile [8]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories increased more than expected. Expect aluminum prices to be weak in the short - term [9]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc ore supply is loose. Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term and fluctuate in the short - term [10][11]. - **Lead**: Lead supply is relatively loose, but battery demand is improving. LME lead shows strength, while Shanghai lead's upside is limited [12]. - **Nickel**: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel iron prices are under pressure. Suggest going short on nickel on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: Supply is low, and demand is weak. Expect tin prices to be weak and volatile [14]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Lithium prices rebounded. Supply is expected to remain high. Suggest paying attention to news and market sentiment [15]. - **Alumina**: Alumina prices rose slightly. Suggest going short on rallies considering the over - capacity situation [16]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is the traditional off - season for stainless steel. Supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [17]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: It is the off - season. Supply and demand are weak. Prices face resistance [18][19]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly. Supply and demand decreased, and inventories are at a low level. Follow policy signals and demand recovery [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Supply is stable, and demand decreased. Expect prices to be strong in the short - term [23][24]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass prices rebounded due to policy expectations. Soda ash prices are expected to be weak due to supply and inventory pressure [25][26]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Prices rose slightly. Suggest waiting and watching due to the uncertain trend [27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose. The industry has over - supply and insufficient demand. Suggest using the rebound for hedging [31][32]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: NR and RU rose significantly. Suggest a bullish medium - term view and a neutral - to - bullish short - term view [34][38]. - **Crude Oil**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices declined, while INE crude oil prices rose. The market is in a multi - empty game. Suggest waiting and watching [39]. - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to be weak due to supply and demand. Suggest waiting and watching [40]. - **Urea**: Prices have support but limited upside. Suggest going long on dips [41]. - **Styrene**: Prices may follow the cost side. BZN is expected to repair [42]. - **PVC**: Supply exceeds demand. Prices are expected to be weak [44]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand are changing. Prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [45]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is under pressure. Suggest going long on dips following PX [46]. - **Para - xylene**: PX is expected to destock in the third quarter. Suggest going long on dips following crude oil [47]. - **Polyethylene PE**: Prices may fluctuate due to trade policies and inventory [48]. - **Polypropylene PP**: Prices are expected to be bearish in July. LL - PP spread may widen [50]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Pig prices may be stable or decline. Short - term long positions may have space, but there are medium - term risks [52]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are expected to be stable. Suggest waiting for a rebound to go short [53]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are under pressure, and domestic soybean meal is multi - empty intertwined. Suggest going long on dips [54][56]. - **Oils**: EPA policy is positive, but there are still bearish factors. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [57][59]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices may decline. Import pressure may increase [60][61]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices may fluctuate. There are potential bearish factors [62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Gold 2508 is expected to show short - term strength due to the escalation of geopolitical and trade policies, with a short - term upward trend, a medium - term oscillation, and an upward trend for the day. Nickel 2507 is recommended for a wait - and - see approach as it has an upstream - strong and downstream - weak situation, with a short - term and medium - term oscillation and a day - long slightly weak oscillation [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Trend**: Short - term is upward, medium - term is oscillating, and for the day is upward, with a short - term strong view [1][3]. - **Driving Logic**: During the Dragon Boat Festival, US trade policies and global geopolitical risks escalated. Trump planned to raise steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, and threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU on July 9. The White House was firm on maintaining tariffs. Geopolitical risks included the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the tense situation in the Middle East, which increased the safe - haven sentiment and pushed up the gold price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 3400 - dollar mark for New York gold and the 785 - 790 mark for Shanghai gold [3]. Nickel (NI) - **Price Trend**: Short - term and medium - term are oscillating, and for the day is slightly weak, with a wait - and - see view [1][5]. - **Driving Logic**: During the Dragon Boat Festival, LME nickel rose slightly, and SHFE nickel is expected to open slightly higher after the holiday, with attention on the pressure at the 122,000 level. Before the holiday, the nickel price dropped significantly due to the rumor of an increase in Indonesian nickel ore quotas, but the rumor did not impact the Indonesian nickel ore price. Technically, the short - term futures price rebounded after hitting the bottom, and the technical support at the 120,000 mark is still valid. It is expected that the liquidation of previous short positions will cause the price to continue to rebound [5].