Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have experienced a significant correction after a period of high-level consolidation, driven by macro liquidity shifts, the fading of geopolitical risk premiums, and visible pressures in the industrial fundamentals [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai nickel futures market saw the main contract for February 2602 open at 145,000 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 145,470 yuan/ton and a low of 138,130 yuan/ton, ultimately closing at 138,450 yuan/ton, down 3,130 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.21% [1] - The average price of nickel on January 13 was reported at 146,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan from the previous day, with the current spot price ranging from 141,250 to 151,250 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply expectations have loosened, with uncertainty surrounding potential adjustments in production quotas by major exporting countries, leading to a cooling of speculative sentiment based on supply tightening [2] - Global refined nickel production continues to grow, with visible inventories at historical highs, putting direct pressure on prices [2] - Downstream consumption is weak across both traditional and emerging sectors, with stainless steel production declining due to seasonal factors and poor profitability, and the dominance of lithium iron phosphate battery technology squeezing the market share of high-nickel ternary batteries [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - Nickel prices are expected to continue a weak oscillating trend in the short term as high inventory pressures are digested and a new supply-demand balance is sought [4] - Key support levels to monitor include mining cost lines and the actual implementation of policies by major producing countries [4] - The medium to long-term outlook will depend on the robust recovery of demand for high-nickel materials in the new energy sector and whether global inventories can enter a sustained decline [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The nickel price showed a pattern of rising and then falling this week, but still remained in an upward trend overall. Short - term spot supply was tight. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices rose slightly, and mines were bullish. Nickel iron prices increased significantly, and the cost line went up. Stainless steel inventory declined. Refined nickel inventory remained at a high level, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The nickel price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was strong. Short - sellers were advised to wait and see, while long - sellers could hold a small amount of positions. The main stainless steel contract was expected to run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait for the moment [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel View**: The nickel price rose and then fell this week, still in an upward trend. Short - term spot was in short supply. Nickel ore prices rose slightly, mines were bullish, nickel iron prices increased sharply, cost line rose, stainless steel inventory decreased, refined nickel inventory was high, and the new energy vehicle sector had limited impact on nickel demand [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: For the main Shanghai nickel contract, short - sellers should wait and see, and long - sellers hold a small number of positions; for the main stainless steel contract, it would run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: Some nickel ore prices rose slightly, battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices increased by 20.40% and 5.69% respectively, low - nickel iron price remained unchanged, high - nickel iron price rose by 4.86%, electrolytic nickel prices increased, and the 304 stainless steel price rose by 5.63% [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market Situation**: Some nickel ore prices rose 1 cent/wet ton, and freight decreased 1 cent/wet ton. On January 8, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 13.1977 million wet tons, a decrease of 0.92%. In November 2025, nickel ore imports decreased by 28.69% month - on - month and increased by 2.92% year - on - year. Mines were firm on prices [18]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market Situation**: The nickel price rose and then fell with large fluctuations and average trading volume. Spot supply was tight. Globally, the nickel market was expected to remain oversupplied. In December 2025, China's refined nickel production increased by 2.35% month - on - month and decreased by 16.39% year - on - year. In November 2025, imports increased by 30.07% month - on - month and 40.86% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 20.06% month - on - month and increased by 0.80% year - on - year. LME and SHFE inventories increased [26][27][39]. - **Nickel Iron Market Situation**: Low - nickel iron price remained stable, and high - nickel iron price rose. In December 2025, China's nickel pig iron production decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. In November 2025, imports decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and increased by 1.4% year - on - year. The December inventory was 217,200 physical tons, equivalent to 22,400 nickel tons [46][48][54]. - **Stainless Steel Market Situation**: The 304 stainless steel price rose by 5.63%. In December, stainless steel production was 3.2605 million tons. Imports were 112,100 tons, and exports were 405,300 tons. On January 9, the national inventory was 948,300 tons, a decrease of 2.91 million tons [59][65][72]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Situation**: From January to November, new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 31.4% and 31.2% year - on - year respectively. In November, production and sales were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively. In November 2025, the production of power + energy - storage batteries was 193GWh, and the total production of power + energy - storage + consumer batteries increased by 12.4% month - on - month and 64.6% year - on - year [77][80]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price continued to rise significantly and deviated from the moving average. There was some competition among long - sellers at high positions. MACD and other indicators were in an upward trend. The price should be followed, but risks should also be noted. A small number of long positions could be held, and short - sellers should wait and see [83]. 4. Industrial Chain Summary - **Fundamental View**: The impact of the nickel ore link on the nickel price was neutral to strong, with stable prices and bullish mines; the nickel iron link was also neutral to strong, with rising prices and an upward - moving cost line; the refined nickel link was neutral, with short - term supply shortages and long - term oversupply; the stainless steel link was neutral, with falling inventory and rising costs; the new energy link was neutral, with good production data but the continued replacement of ternary batteries [86]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the main Shanghai nickel contract, short - sellers should wait and see, and long - sellers hold a small number of positions; for the main stainless steel contract, it would run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait [88][89].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's nickel mining association plans to significantly reduce nickel ore production targets by 2026, shifting from a focus on "scale expansion" to "value control" to stabilize resource value and guide the industry towards higher value-added segments [1][8] Group 1: Production Adjustments - Indonesia aims to lower its nickel ore production target from 379 million wet tons in 2025 to approximately 250 million wet tons by 2026, a reduction of over 34% [2] - This production cut is expected to tighten supply expectations, potentially supporting nickel prices if executed effectively [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global nickel market is currently in a state of oversupply, and while Indonesia's planned reduction may impact supply, other major producers like the Philippines and Russia could adjust their exports to fill the gap [3] - Weak growth in downstream demand, particularly in the new energy battery and stainless steel sectors, may limit the market's ability to absorb supply adjustments, constraining upward price movement [3][5] Group 3: Macro Environment - Global monetary policy, trade relations among major economies, and geopolitical factors will continue to influence market sentiment in the nickel sector [4] - A clear direction in U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and improved global economic expectations could support nickel prices, while heightened risk aversion may suppress price performance [4] Group 4: Short-term Supply and Demand Outlook - Indonesia's production cut may lead to temporary adjustments in local companies' inventory and production, creating localized supply tightness [5] - However, other nickel-producing countries may increase output, and existing projects could come online as planned, partially offsetting the impact of Indonesia's reduction [5] - Demand from the new energy sector is slowing, and automotive companies may optimize nickel usage or seek alternative materials, while the stainless steel industry remains influenced by global manufacturing conditions [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market's surplus pattern is difficult to change. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a focus on the range of 120,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel futures contract is 122,400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 250 yuan/ton. The spread between the November - December contracts is - 340 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,325 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton. The position volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 108,989 lots, a decrease of 12,453 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 33,683 lots, an increase of 474 lots. LME nickel inventory is 250,854 tons, unchanged [3] - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel is 36,075 tons (weekly), an increase of 1,656 tons. The total LME nickel cancelled warrants are 6,432 tons, an increase of 180 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 29,780 tons, an increase of 2,970 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 123,050 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 123,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main NI contract is 650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 194.12 US dollars/ton, down 3.56 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 tons, a decrease of 23.22 tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,497.91 tons (weekly), a decrease of 30.93 tons [3] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 56.72 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.61 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.17 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.03 million metal tons [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 108.53 tons, an increase of 21.12 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 176.27 tons, an increase of 2.48 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 57.67 tons, a decrease of 0.69 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and reached basic agreements on important economic and trade issues [3] - The US CPI in September increased by 3% year - on - year, the highest since January this year, but lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. The core CPI slowed to 0.2% month - on - month, also lower than expected [3]