1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: The US dollar index is expected to move in a volatile manner [15]. - **US Stock Index Futures**: The upward trend of US stocks has not reversed. After a short - term correction, investors can still buy on dips [19]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Allocate evenly among various stock indices [22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Be cautious with naked long positions on a single side. If there are stock positions, consider using long bonds to hedge potential stock corrections [25]. - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: The futures price is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the development of Sino - US relations and the weather in US soybean - producing areas [27]. - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: In the short term, the oil market is expected to remain volatile. Wait for the release of Malaysian palm oil data for August and the USDA's September supply - demand report [30]. - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile. The upside space is limited. In the fourth quarter, the market for new cotton is not optimistic [34]. - **Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Adopt a short - term volatile trading strategy for steel prices [39]. - **Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke)**: The futures price has short - term adjustment pressure, but there is strong support below after the adjustment [42]. - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: The current corn starch price difference has fallen to a low level. The space for further weakening is expected to be small. Pay attention to the driving factors for widening the spread [44]. - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: Hold short positions and 11 - 3 inverse spreads. If the 11 - 1 spread strengthens significantly, also pay attention to inverse spread opportunities [45]. - **Agricultural Products (Hogs)**: Hold a short - term view of a volatile and weak trend for single - side trading. Continuously look for inverse spread opportunities [48]. - **Black Metals (Steam Coal)**: The coal price is expected to continue its seasonal weakness [50]. - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: The iron ore price is expected to be volatile. The molten iron output is expected to decline by 3 - 40,000 tons next week and then rebound. However, the overall black metal fundamentals are becoming more burdensome [52]. - **Agricultural Products (Red Dates)**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Focus on the weather in the producing areas and subsequent on - the - spot research [55]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead)**: In the short term, adopt a wait - and - see approach for both single - side trading and arbitrage [57]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: For single - side trading, maintain a wait - and - see view. For arbitrage, pay attention to medium - term positive spread opportunities. For domestic - foreign spreads, maintain a positive spread strategy before overseas inventories bottom out [60]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips and positive spreads [63]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper)**: For single - side trading, recommend buying on dips. For arbitrage, maintain a wait - and - see approach [67]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: In the short term, pay attention to band trading opportunities. For the medium - term, pay attention to opportunities for shorting on rallies [71]. - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Maintain a short - term range - bound trading strategy [73]. - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: Be cautious when chasing high prices [76]. - **Energy Chemicals (Pulp)**: The pulp market is expected to be volatile and weak [78]. - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: The PVC market is expected to be volatile [81]. - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: The styrene market is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to domestic and foreign policy variables [83]. - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: Pay attention to the pressure on processing fees caused by the restart of plants in September and the launch of new production capacity [86]. - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate)**: The freight rate is expected to continue to decline [89]. 2. Core Views - **Financial Sector**: The US dollar index is affected by the EU's potential secondary sanctions on Russia. US stocks are affected by Nvidia's earnings report and the Fed's interest - rate policy expectations. Chinese stock index futures are influenced by policies to expand service consumption and industrial enterprise profits. Treasury bond futures are affected by industrial enterprise profits and the central bank's open - market operations [14][18][21]. - **Commodity Sector**: Agricultural products are affected by factors such as Sino - US relations, weather, and inventory. Black metals are affected by infrastructure investment, downstream demand, and production restrictions. Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro - economic factors, supply - demand relationships, and enterprise production data. Energy chemicals are affected by inventory, supply - demand, and seasonal factors. Shipping indices are affected by port construction and supply - demand in the shipping market [27][38][56][72][88]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - Ukraine and the US will hold a meeting on the 29th. The French prime minister will meet with the opposition to avoid a trust vote. The EU is considering secondary sanctions on Russia, which may cause the US dollar index to fluctuate [12][13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Nvidia's earnings report is slightly below expectations, but the trend of technology giants increasing AI capital expenditure remains unchanged. With the expectation of interest - rate cuts, US stocks are expected to continue to be volatile and strong [16][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in July has narrowed, but the effect of anti - involution policies remains to be seen [20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - From January to July, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The central bank conducted 379.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan. Treasury bonds lack the opportunity for continuous upward movement unless the stock market adjusts continuously or the central bank's monetary policy turns unexpectedly loose [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In September, the estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills is about 10.3025 million tons. It is expected that the arrival in October will be 9 million tons and 7.5 million tons in November. Sino - US relations are the most important uncertain factor affecting the futures price [26][27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From August 1st to 25th, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 36.41% month - on - month. The short - term oil market is expected to be volatile, waiting for data guidance [28][30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - New cotton picking in Xinjiang is expected to be advanced. The growth progress of US cotton is slow, but the excellent - good rate is high. The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the market in the fourth quarter is not optimistic [31][34]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to July, 19,800 urban old - community renovation projects started nationwide. In July, transportation fixed - asset investment was 306.1 billion yuan. Steel prices are expected to be volatile, and the upward space is limited [35][38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in the southwest is stable. The coking coal futures price has short - term adjustment pressure, but there is strong support below after the adjustment [40][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The industry's operating rate has decreased slightly, and inventory has also decreased slightly. The price difference between corn starch and corn has fallen to a low level, and the space for further weakening is limited [43][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports has decreased, and the grain inventory in the southern ports has increased slightly. The corn market is expected to be weak, and short positions can be held [45]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The revenue and net profit of Muyuan Co., Ltd. increased significantly in the first half of the year. The short - term hog market is expected to be volatile and weak, and inverse spread opportunities can be explored [47][48]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The import volume of coal in Southeast Asia has decreased. The coal price is expected to continue its seasonal weakness [49][50]. 3.2.10 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Fortescue's iron ore shipments reached 198.4 million tons in FY25. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile, and the molten iron output is expected to decline and then rebound [51][52]. 3.2.11 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The main - producing areas of red dates have entered the sugar - increasing period. The red - date futures price is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [54][55]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 26th, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $38.74 per ton. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [56][57]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 26th, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount of $4.61 per ton. The zinc market is affected by macro - economic factors and supply - demand relationships. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and positive spread opportunities can be explored for arbitrage [58][60]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The phosphoric acid iron - lithium industry has proposed an initiative to resist malicious price competition. The short - term lithium carbonate market is expected to have a bottom - support, and opportunities for buying on dips and positive spreads can be explored [61][63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The copper market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate expectations and macro - economic factors. The copper price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and buying on dips is recommended for single - side trading [66][67]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Eramet plans to increase its nickel - ore production to 42 million tons this year. The nickel market is affected by supply - demand relationships, and band trading opportunities can be explored in the short term, and shorting on rallies in the medium - term [69][71]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA's commercial crude oil and refined - oil inventories have decreased. The oil price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [72][73]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased slightly. The caustic - soda market is expected to be stable in the short term, and caution is required when chasing high prices [74][76]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has declined. The pulp market is expected to be volatile and weak [77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has decreased. The PVC market is expected to be volatile [79][81]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has increased. The styrene market is expected to be volatile, and domestic and foreign policy variables should be monitored [82][83]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with some slightly decreasing. The bottle - chip market is expected to be affected by plant restarts and new production capacity [84][86]. 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Portugal plans to invest nearly 4 billion euros in port upgrading. The container freight rate is expected to continue to decline [87][89].

Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry [6] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, ANTAM's nickel pig iron production increased by 2% to 4,569 tons, while sales decreased by 81% to 924 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15% and 87% respectively [1] - Nickel ore production decreased by 3% to 4.47 million wet tons, but sales increased by 14% to 4.37 million wet tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 63% and 85% respectively [2] - Gold production reached 208 kg (6,687 troy ounces), down 10% quarter-on-quarter and down 24% year-on-year, while gold sales increased by 13% to 15,566 kg (500,459 troy ounces), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 76% [3] - Bauxite production increased by 11% to 728,360 wet tons, with sales decreasing by 12% [4] - Alumina production rose by 3% to 45,334 tons, with sales increasing by 7% to 47,060 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 19% and 2% respectively [4] - ANTAM is focusing on sustainable business development through downstream mineral development and strategic partnerships [5] - ANTAM is accelerating the development of a precious metal processing plant in Gresik JIIPE to meet growing market demand and expand its gold market [7] - In the nickel business, ANTAM is developing cooperative projects for the electric vehicle battery ecosystem in Indonesia, achieving several milestones in preliminary work, licensing, and funding [7] - The construction of integrated battery plants in Karawang and East Halmahera has commenced, involving multiple joint ventures [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry [4] Core Insights - The RKEF project produced 30,463 tons of nickel pig iron (NPI) in Q2 2025, a decrease of 5% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to adjustments made to the ONI furnace [1][2] - The unit cash cost for NPI increased by 4% year-on-year to $10,348 per ton, driven by maintenance costs and rising electricity expenses [2] - The sales revenue for NPI in Q2 2025 was $346 million, reflecting a 6% decrease year-on-year [2] RKEF Project Summary - NPI production in Q2 2025 was 30,463 tons, with a contract price of $11,449 per ton, showing a 1% increase from the previous quarter [1][2] - The adjusted EBITDA for NPI was $33.7 million, down 24% from the previous quarter, with an adjusted EBITDA per ton of $1,107, a decrease of 20% [2][12] HPAL Project Summary - The Huayue nickel-cobalt project produced 20,750 tons of nickel and 1,877 tons of cobalt in Q2 2025, exceeding the rated capacity by 38% [3] - The unit EBITDA for HNC was $4,819 per ton, up 12% quarter-on-quarter, supported by rising MHP prices [5] Mining Operations Summary - The Hengjaya mine produced 5.92 million wet tons of nickel ore in Q2 2025, a 99% increase year-on-year [7] - The adjusted EBITDA for the Hengjaya mine was $41.4 million, a 33% increase from the previous quarter, driven by rising nickel ore prices [7] Financial Overview - Nickel Industries received $34.4 million in shareholder loan repayments in Q2 2025 [10] - The company also received $8.1 million in dividends from the Oracle Nickel project and $8 million from the Hengjaya mine [10][11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $86 million for the June quarter, bringing the first half unaudited adjusted EBITDA to $183.6 million, which is a material outperformance compared to the previous year [4][16] - The twelve-month rolling Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate (TRIFR) was 1.29, with a Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate (LTIFR) of 0.05 for June, indicating strong safety performance [2][3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - RKF nickel metal production was 30,463 tonnes, slightly lower than the previous quarter, impacted by kiln realignment and maintenance [4][7] - HPAL production from HNC was 2,075 tonnes of nickel, continuing to operate above nameplate capacity [4] - The Hangjai mine achieved record ore sales of over 3 million wet metric tonnes, with an EBITDA of $41.4 million, a 33% increase from the previous quarter [6][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - MHP pricing remained stable at $11,449, slightly higher than the previous quarter, with payabilities for MHP close to 90% [8][9] - The Hengjia mine's EBITDA increased by CAD10.4 million, highlighting the benefits of integrated operations [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on the completion of the E and C project, with commissioning deferred to align working capital requirements [10][11] - The feasibility study to increase the Anglia mine RKB from 9 million tonnes to 19 million tonnes has been approved, indicating growth plans [13] - The Sampala project is progressing well, with a feasibility study lodged for an initial operation of 6 million wet metric tonnes per annum [14][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about achieving RKAB approval in August and expects to ramp up production from the Hangjai mine significantly [37] - The company remains confident in the exploration target of over 1 billion wet metric tonnes of ore at the Sao Paulo project, with strong margins expected [16][40] Other Important Information - The company is actively managing working capital due to a significant build-up, particularly in RKF operations [20][30] - There are discussions regarding various financing sources, excluding equity raises, to manage cash flow and debt obligations [32][33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Cash flow neutrality despite good EBITDA - Management explained that the neutral cash flow was due to a large working capital build, particularly in RKF operations, which is expected to unwind [20][21] Question: MHP realizations increase - Management noted market tightness leading to improved MHP payabilities, offsetting a decrease in LME prices [22][23] Question: Delaying commissioning of E and C - The decision to delay was significant enough to avoid building up working capital ahead of the sales license [28][30] Question: Debt service requirements - Management confirmed $33 million in interest amortization was paid in July, with another $100 million due in the remainder of the year [31][34] Question: Production ramp-up from Hangjai mine - Management remains optimistic about receiving the RCAB permit in August and targets significantly above 12 million tonnes for the year [37] Question: Development timing for Sao Paulo - The company is targeting completion of the haul road by early Q4, with first ore delivery expected in early H2 next year [40]