Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is showing a predominantly positive trend, with nickel futures experiencing a significant increase, reaching a peak of 137,770.00 yuan/ton, marking a rise of approximately 3.07% [1] - The current nickel market is characterized by a strong upward trend, supported by concerns over tight resource supply and rising boundary costs, despite a seasonal increase in stainless steel inventory due to the Chinese New Year [2] - Analysts from various institutions highlight that the supply-demand dynamics for nickel are improving, with expectations of a 10% to 15% decrease in nickel ore production from Indonesia, which could positively impact the market [2][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment and overall market conditions are currently influencing nickel prices, with a strong US dollar previously causing declines in dollar-denominated metals [3] - The supply side is expected to remain tight due to seasonal weather impacts in major mining regions, which may limit production and shipping volumes [3] - There is a cautious sentiment in the market regarding further purchases at high prices, as many manufacturers have completed their pre-holiday stockpiling [3]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have seen a significant increase of over 30% from mid-December to early January, driven by news of Indonesia's potential reduction of nickel ore quotas for 2026, although prices are currently under pressure due to overall high levels in the non-ferrous metals market [3][15]. Nickel Ore Policy Developments - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) plans to strategically adjust the nickel ore production quota (RKAB) to between 250 million and 260 million tons, with existing quotas allowed to continue until the end of Q1 to ensure production continuity during the review period [4][16]. - The price of nickel ore has increased, with a recent transaction of 1.3% grade nickel ore from the Philippines at FOB $38, reflecting a significant week-on-week increase [4][16]. - Domestic nickel ore imports for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 40.169 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, with nearly 91% sourced from the Philippines [4][16]. Nickel Iron Price Trends - In December 2025, nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia was 180,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.6% month-on-month and a 4.8% year-on-year growth [6][18]. - Domestic high-nickel pig iron prices have risen, with factory prices reaching 1,010-1,020 RMB per nickel, while Indonesian nickel pig iron FOB prices increased to $128 per nickel [6][18]. - Nickel pig iron imports for the first 11 months of 2025 totaled 10.056 million tons, a 26.7% increase year-on-year, with approximately 97% of imports from Indonesia [6][18]. Refined Nickel Inventory Pressure - Domestic refined nickel production in December 2025 was 29,058 tons, a slight increase from November but a 16.4% year-on-year decline, with total production for the year at 410,800 tons, a 22.8% increase [8][20]. - As of January 16, total nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 48,180 tons, with registered warehouse receipts at 41,985 tons, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [8][20]. - LME nickel inventory has also been on the rise, with the latest total at 285,700 tons, suggesting a globally loose supply of refined nickel [8][20]. Demand Stability and Weakness - Nickel demand is primarily driven by stainless steel, ternary batteries, and nickel alloys, with stainless steel being the most significant sector [10][22]. - In December 2025, domestic production of 300 series stainless steel was 1.7472 million tons, a slight decrease from November but a 5.6% year-on-year increase [10][22]. - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate has rapidly increased to 33,600 RMB per ton, indicating some purchasing demand from nickel salt manufacturers despite overall weak speculative demand [10][22]. Summary - The overall environment shows increased volatility in silver and copper prices, which may influence nickel prices [12][24]. - Indonesia's announcement regarding potential reductions in nickel ore quotas is still developing, which could impact market sentiment [12][24]. - Despite the recovery in sentiment across the nickel supply chain, there remains significant pressure from excess inventory, particularly in refined nickel [12][24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The nickel price showed a pattern of rising and then falling this week, but still remained in an upward trend overall. Short - term spot supply was tight. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices rose slightly, and mines were bullish. Nickel iron prices increased significantly, and the cost line went up. Stainless steel inventory declined. Refined nickel inventory remained at a high level, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The nickel price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was strong. Short - sellers were advised to wait and see, while long - sellers could hold a small amount of positions. The main stainless steel contract was expected to run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait for the moment [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel View**: The nickel price rose and then fell this week, still in an upward trend. Short - term spot was in short supply. Nickel ore prices rose slightly, mines were bullish, nickel iron prices increased sharply, cost line rose, stainless steel inventory decreased, refined nickel inventory was high, and the new energy vehicle sector had limited impact on nickel demand [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: For the main Shanghai nickel contract, short - sellers should wait and see, and long - sellers hold a small number of positions; for the main stainless steel contract, it would run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: Some nickel ore prices rose slightly, battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices increased by 20.40% and 5.69% respectively, low - nickel iron price remained unchanged, high - nickel iron price rose by 4.86%, electrolytic nickel prices increased, and the 304 stainless steel price rose by 5.63% [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market Situation**: Some nickel ore prices rose 1 cent/wet ton, and freight decreased 1 cent/wet ton. On January 8, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 13.1977 million wet tons, a decrease of 0.92%. In November 2025, nickel ore imports decreased by 28.69% month - on - month and increased by 2.92% year - on - year. Mines were firm on prices [18]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market Situation**: The nickel price rose and then fell with large fluctuations and average trading volume. Spot supply was tight. Globally, the nickel market was expected to remain oversupplied. In December 2025, China's refined nickel production increased by 2.35% month - on - month and decreased by 16.39% year - on - year. In November 2025, imports increased by 30.07% month - on - month and 40.86% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 20.06% month - on - month and increased by 0.80% year - on - year. LME and SHFE inventories increased [26][27][39]. - **Nickel Iron Market Situation**: Low - nickel iron price remained stable, and high - nickel iron price rose. In December 2025, China's nickel pig iron production decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. In November 2025, imports decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and increased by 1.4% year - on - year. The December inventory was 217,200 physical tons, equivalent to 22,400 nickel tons [46][48][54]. - **Stainless Steel Market Situation**: The 304 stainless steel price rose by 5.63%. In December, stainless steel production was 3.2605 million tons. Imports were 112,100 tons, and exports were 405,300 tons. On January 9, the national inventory was 948,300 tons, a decrease of 2.91 million tons [59][65][72]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Situation**: From January to November, new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 31.4% and 31.2% year - on - year respectively. In November, production and sales were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively. In November 2025, the production of power + energy - storage batteries was 193GWh, and the total production of power + energy - storage + consumer batteries increased by 12.4% month - on - month and 64.6% year - on - year [77][80]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price continued to rise significantly and deviated from the moving average. There was some competition among long - sellers at high positions. MACD and other indicators were in an upward trend. The price should be followed, but risks should also be noted. A small number of long positions could be held, and short - sellers should wait and see [83]. 4. Industrial Chain Summary - **Fundamental View**: The impact of the nickel ore link on the nickel price was neutral to strong, with stable prices and bullish mines; the nickel iron link was also neutral to strong, with rising prices and an upward - moving cost line; the refined nickel link was neutral, with short - term supply shortages and long - term oversupply; the stainless steel link was neutral, with falling inventory and rising costs; the new energy link was neutral, with good production data but the continued replacement of ternary batteries [86]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the main Shanghai nickel contract, short - sellers should wait and see, and long - sellers hold a small number of positions; for the main stainless steel contract, it would run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait [88][89].

Report Title - Nanhua Futures' Outlook for Nickel & Stainless Steel in 2026: Adapting to the Supply-Demand Structural Adjustment Cycle [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In 2025, the nickel market first rose and then declined. The price was mainly influenced by demand fluctuations and sentiment changes, lacking fundamental factors for a trend reversal. The annual price performance was weaker than previous years [2][3]. - In 2026, the focus of the nickel market remains on the progress of supply-demand structural adjustments. The demand for stainless steel is expected to remain stable, while the demand for nickel in the new energy sector is likely to be moderate. The Indonesian government's policies will continue to affect the market, and the supply surplus situation may improve marginally [4][5][6]. - The report predicts that in 2026, the main contract range for nickel will be between 118,000 - 130,000 yuan, and for stainless steel, it will be between 12,100 - 13,000 yuan [6]. Summary by Directory 2025 Annual Market Review - **First Quarter**: The nickel price showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern, with the price center rising to the range of 125,000 - 136,000 yuan/ton. The main influencing factors were Indonesian policy adjustments and the contradiction between short - term cost support and long - term oversupply [9]. - **Second Quarter**: The nickel - stainless steel market showed a volatile and downward - trending pattern. Factors such as the US tariff policy, rising LME nickel inventories, and weak terminal demand led to the decline of nickel and stainless steel prices [11]. - **Third Quarter**: The market showed a range - bound and slightly upward - trending pattern, mainly driven by news and policy expectations. However, high inventories and weak demand restricted the upward space of prices [12]. - **Fourth Quarter**: The market was mainly affected by Indonesian policy disturbances and macro - expectations. Although there were short - term price rebounds, the overall supply surplus situation remained unchanged, and the price fluctuations were mainly due to market sentiment and capital speculation [13]. Industrial Chain Performance Nickel Ore - In 2025, the supply of the nickel ore market was affected by policies and seasons. The supply was tight in the first half of the year and then eased. The demand was mainly suppressed by downstream smelting profits, showing cost - sensitivity characteristics [16][19]. - In 2026, the nickel ore market will be in a cycle of strong policy supervision and rational return of production capacity. The Indonesian government's policies will lead to a certain degree of supply contraction, and the price is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend [22][23]. Ferronickel - In 2025, the supply of the ferronickel market showed regional differentiation and structural substitution characteristics. The supply was tight in the first half of the year and then increased. The demand was mainly suppressed by the weak profits of downstream stainless steel [25][29]. - In 2026, the ferronickel market will also enter a cycle of policy supervision and rational return of production capacity. The growth rate of effective production capacity is expected to slow down, and the price center will likely be affected by the demand of downstream steel mills [30][31]. Nickel Sulfate and Intermediates - In 2025, the supply of global nickel intermediates was mainly from Indonesia. The production of MHP increased significantly, while the production of nickel sulfate decreased. The demand was affected by the differentiation of technical routes, and the pricing system was adjusted [33][35]. - In 2026, the supply of nickel sulfate intermediates will show a structural increase, while the demand in the Chinese battery sector will slow down. The market may enter a cycle of processing fee control and raw material coefficient game [37][38]. Stainless Steel - In 2025, the supply of stainless steel showed a pattern of marginal slowdown in total growth, internal structural differentiation, and intensified extrusion from overseas capacity. The demand was affected by the weakening of traditional growth engines and the challenges of the external market [42][46][47]. - In 2026, the stainless steel market may enter a cycle of supply - demand re - balance. The supply side will see further elimination of high - cost production capacity, and the demand side may have a marginal improvement, especially in high - end special stainless steel [50][52]. 2026 Annual Balance Deduction - In 2026, the core trading logic of the nickel market will shift to the joint action of supply - demand structural optimization and integrated cost rigid support. The supply surplus situation will be alleviated but not reversed [54]. - The demand for nickel in the stainless steel industry will be the core anchor point. The new energy vehicle battery sector will face pressure from the penetration of lithium iron phosphate, and the nickel market surplus will continue in 2026 [54][55].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a significant upward trend, particularly in nickel futures, which have shown a slight increase amid macroeconomic factors and demand challenges [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. government has resumed operations, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in December - High-level communications between China and the U.S. have raised market hopes for new domestic stimulus policies to support the economy [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Nanhua Futures, the Philippines is shipping nickel ore according to orders without significant fluctuations - There are indications that Indonesia may reduce its quota for the upcoming year, but no concrete figures have been reported yet, suggesting limited immediate impact [1] - Southwest Futures notes that downstream nickel-iron plants are facing increased losses, leading to some high-cost nickel-iron plants in Indonesia halting production for maintenance - The stainless steel sector is entering a traditional off-peak consumption season, compounded by weak demand in the real estate sector, resulting in a bearish sentiment among steel mills [1] Market Outlook - Jinrui Futures anticipates that nickel ore prices in Indonesia are likely to remain stable in December - There are signs of price stabilization for nickel-iron and stainless steel in the short term, with a potential confirmation of a bottom in the off-peak season - Expectations of stability in the mining sector may alleviate short-term pressure on primary nickel prices, with the price center expected to stabilize around 117,000 yuan per ton - Short-term focus will be on the resumption of Indonesian projects, with the core trading range for nickel futures set between 115,000 and 120,000 yuan per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Long - term supply and demand are both increasing, the surplus pattern remains unchanged. The upside of nickel prices is limited, while the downside is supported by costs. Maintain a sideways view on Shanghai nickel, and consider going long when the price retraces to the cost line during the peak seasons. For stainless steel, industry demand remains weak, and steel enterprises adjust short - term changes through production and inventory. The pattern of wide - range sideways movement at the bottom is hard to change [67][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 - Not elaborated in the report 3.2全球供需平衡 - From 2020 to 2025E, global primary nickel supply and demand are both increasing. In 2025E, primary nickel supply is expected to be 3690000 tons, and demand is expected to be 3580000 tons, showing a supply - surplus situation [3] 3.3新能源产业链 3.3.1中国新能源汽车产销数据 - In July 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.3% and 27.4%. From January to July 2025, cumulative production and sales were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 39.2% and 38.5% [9][10] 3.3.2动力电池 - In July 2025, the total production of power and other batteries was 133.8GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.3%. Sales were 127.2GWh, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 47.8%. The installed capacity of power batteries was 55.9GWh, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [14] 3.3.3硫酸镍价格稳中有升 - In July 2025, China's nickel sulfate physical output was 194700 tons, and metal output was 42800 tons. In August 2025, it is expected to be 43000 metal tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. Battery - grade nickel sulfate is priced at 27200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week, and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate is priced at 28250 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [17] 3.4不锈钢产业链 3.4.1镍矿 - Nickel ore prices and freight rates remained unchanged from last week. On August 21, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 12.0585 million wet tons, a 10.11% increase. In July 2025, nickel ore imports were 5005800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15.16% and a year - on - year increase of 43.63% [20][23] 3.4.2镍铁 - Nickel iron prices were stable with a slight increase. In July 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual output was 22900 tons of metal, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.63%. In July 2025, China's nickel iron imports were 836000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.7% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [26][29][32] 3.4.3不锈钢 - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 37.5 yuan/ton on average in four regions this week. In July, stainless steel crude steel output was 3.2108 million tons. On August 22, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0917 million tons, a 1.28 - million - ton increase [40][45][48] 3.5纯镍市场 3.5.1电解镍产量 - In July 2025, China's refined nickel output was 36151 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.74% and a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. In August 2025, it is estimated to be 37760 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.45% and a year - on - year increase of 33.38% [56] 3.5.2精炼镍进出口量 - In July 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 38164.223 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 124.36% and a year - on - year increase of 798.94%. Exports were 15545.572 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 53.27% and a year - on - year increase of 3.43% [59] 3.5.3库存情况 - LME inventory decreased by 1914 tons to 209748 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 19 tons to 26943 tons. The total social inventory of Shanghai nickel was 39937 tons, a 1349 - ton decrease from last week [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices trended weakly. The short - term digestion of the anti - involution in the macro - aspect did not lead to better transaction volume with price drops. Downstream buyers still mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In the industrial chain, ore prices and ferronickel prices were weakly stable, but some ferronickel quotes rebounded. The cost line remained low. July and August are traditional off - seasons for stainless steel consumption, and the inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly this week. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, which is beneficial for the increase in nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [8]. - Technically, on the daily K - line, the price is running below the 20 - day moving average. The important support and resistance levels of the Fibonacci retracement are effective. The main funds have not decreased, and short - sellers are adding positions on rallies. The MACD indicator shows a death cross, and the KDJ has entered the oversold area with a rebound demand. Overall, it is expected to move in a wide - range oscillation [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Viewpoint**: Weak operation this week, with long - term oversupply unchanged. The macro - situation has short - term digestion, downstream purchases are rigid - demand based, and new energy vehicle data is positive [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: Both the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to move in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: Red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% prices remained unchanged from last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price decreased by 2.95%, 3.19%, and 3.10% respectively [14]. - **Nickel Iron**: Low - grade ferronickel in Shandong decreased by 3.03%, while high - grade ferronickel remained unchanged. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals data, high - grade ferronickel increased by 2.5 yuan/nickel, and low - grade ferronickel increased by 100 yuan/ton [13][46][47]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel increased by 0.18% [14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Ore prices were stable, and shipping costs were flat. As of July 31, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 9.9436 million wet tons, an increase of 0.66%. In June 2025, nickel ore imports were 4.3466 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.21%. The market was mostly in a wait - and - see state, and downstream procurement was cautious [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - This week, nickel prices oscillated weakly, and downstream buyers made rigid - demand purchases. The import window opened, and some Norwegian nickel resources increased. In the long - term, supply and demand will both increase, but the oversupply pattern remains. In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37%. The estimated production in July was 36,745 tons. Import and export data also showed certain changes [25][26][30]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Nickel iron prices were weakly stable. In June 2025, China's nickel pig iron production was 23,300 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.35%. The import volume in June was 1.041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50.0% [45][49][52]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel increased slightly. In June, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2916 million tons, with the 300 - series production decreasing by 2.28% month - on - month. The import volume was 109,500 tons, and the export volume was 390,000 tons. As of August 1, the national inventory was 1.1112 million tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons, while the 300 - series inventory increased by 6,700 tons [59][64][71]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In June 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.4% and 26.7%. From January to June 2025, the production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [77][78]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - On the daily K - line, the price is below the 20 - day moving average. The Fibonacci retracement levels are effective. The main funds are still active, short - sellers are adding positions on rallies. The MACD shows a death cross, and the KDJ is in the oversold area, indicating a wide - range oscillation [85]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Combing Summary - **Influence on Nickel Prices**: Nickel ore and ferronickel are neutral - bearish; refined nickel is neutral; stainless steel is neutral; new energy is neutral - bullish [88]. - **Trading Strategies**: Both the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to move in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [90].

Group 1: Market Overview - The main nickel futures contract in Shanghai has risen for three consecutive trading days, reaching a new high since June 12, closing at 120,830 yuan/ton, up 2.33% [1] - The decrease in geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties has positively impacted the nickel market, with U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index declining [1] - Domestic nickel prices have seen a decline, with the current spot price at 119,775 yuan/ton, down 6.02% from the end of last year [1] Group 2: Import and Supply Dynamics - In May 2025, nickel ore imports increased by 34.77% month-on-month to 3.9272 million tons, but decreased by 14.79% year-on-year [2] - The Philippines remains the primary source of nickel ore, with 3.6058 million tons imported, accounting for 91.82% of the total imports for the month [2] - The market is concerned about potential oversupply due to the removal of export restrictions on nickel ore in the Philippines, while Indonesian nickel ore remains tight in the short term [2] Group 3: Demand and Production Insights - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to decrease by 2.91% month-on-month in June, with a total output of 3.3623 million tons [3] - The demand for nickel is under pressure due to weak terminal demand and slow recovery in manufacturing orders, leading to a focus on just-in-time inventory replenishment [3] - The overall supply-demand balance remains oversupplied, with nickel prices expected to face downward pressure [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the nickel market may experience a combination of supply contraction and demand substitution to address the oversupply issue [4] - The short-term outlook for nickel prices is mixed, with potential for a rebound above 120,000 yuan/ton, but also risks of volatility and downward pressure in the second half of the year [3][4] - The market is advised to monitor the impact of Indonesian policies and the development of new energy and semiconductor demands for long-term growth opportunities [4]