1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices trended weakly. The short - term digestion of the anti - involution in the macro - aspect did not lead to better transaction volume with price drops. Downstream buyers still mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In the industrial chain, ore prices and ferronickel prices were weakly stable, but some ferronickel quotes rebounded. The cost line remained low. July and August are traditional off - seasons for stainless steel consumption, and the inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly this week. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, which is beneficial for the increase in nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [8]. - Technically, on the daily K - line, the price is running below the 20 - day moving average. The important support and resistance levels of the Fibonacci retracement are effective. The main funds have not decreased, and short - sellers are adding positions on rallies. The MACD indicator shows a death cross, and the KDJ has entered the oversold area with a rebound demand. Overall, it is expected to move in a wide - range oscillation [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Viewpoint**: Weak operation this week, with long - term oversupply unchanged. The macro - situation has short - term digestion, downstream purchases are rigid - demand based, and new energy vehicle data is positive [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: Both the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to move in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: Red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% prices remained unchanged from last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price decreased by 2.95%, 3.19%, and 3.10% respectively [14]. - **Nickel Iron**: Low - grade ferronickel in Shandong decreased by 3.03%, while high - grade ferronickel remained unchanged. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals data, high - grade ferronickel increased by 2.5 yuan/nickel, and low - grade ferronickel increased by 100 yuan/ton [13][46][47]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel increased by 0.18% [14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Ore prices were stable, and shipping costs were flat. As of July 31, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 9.9436 million wet tons, an increase of 0.66%. In June 2025, nickel ore imports were 4.3466 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.21%. The market was mostly in a wait - and - see state, and downstream procurement was cautious [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - This week, nickel prices oscillated weakly, and downstream buyers made rigid - demand purchases. The import window opened, and some Norwegian nickel resources increased. In the long - term, supply and demand will both increase, but the oversupply pattern remains. In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37%. The estimated production in July was 36,745 tons. Import and export data also showed certain changes [25][26][30]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Nickel iron prices were weakly stable. In June 2025, China's nickel pig iron production was 23,300 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.35%. The import volume in June was 1.041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50.0% [45][49][52]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel increased slightly. In June, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2916 million tons, with the 300 - series production decreasing by 2.28% month - on - month. The import volume was 109,500 tons, and the export volume was 390,000 tons. As of August 1, the national inventory was 1.1112 million tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons, while the 300 - series inventory increased by 6,700 tons [59][64][71]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In June 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.4% and 26.7%. From January to June 2025, the production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [77][78]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - On the daily K - line, the price is below the 20 - day moving average. The Fibonacci retracement levels are effective. The main funds are still active, short - sellers are adding positions on rallies. The MACD shows a death cross, and the KDJ is in the oversold area, indicating a wide - range oscillation [85]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Combing Summary - **Influence on Nickel Prices**: Nickel ore and ferronickel are neutral - bearish; refined nickel is neutral; stainless steel is neutral; new energy is neutral - bullish [88]. - **Trading Strategies**: Both the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to move in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [90].

Group 1: Market Overview - The main nickel futures contract in Shanghai has risen for three consecutive trading days, reaching a new high since June 12, closing at 120,830 yuan/ton, up 2.33% [1] - The decrease in geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties has positively impacted the nickel market, with U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index declining [1] - Domestic nickel prices have seen a decline, with the current spot price at 119,775 yuan/ton, down 6.02% from the end of last year [1] Group 2: Import and Supply Dynamics - In May 2025, nickel ore imports increased by 34.77% month-on-month to 3.9272 million tons, but decreased by 14.79% year-on-year [2] - The Philippines remains the primary source of nickel ore, with 3.6058 million tons imported, accounting for 91.82% of the total imports for the month [2] - The market is concerned about potential oversupply due to the removal of export restrictions on nickel ore in the Philippines, while Indonesian nickel ore remains tight in the short term [2] Group 3: Demand and Production Insights - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to decrease by 2.91% month-on-month in June, with a total output of 3.3623 million tons [3] - The demand for nickel is under pressure due to weak terminal demand and slow recovery in manufacturing orders, leading to a focus on just-in-time inventory replenishment [3] - The overall supply-demand balance remains oversupplied, with nickel prices expected to face downward pressure [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the nickel market may experience a combination of supply contraction and demand substitution to address the oversupply issue [4] - The short-term outlook for nickel prices is mixed, with potential for a rebound above 120,000 yuan/ton, but also risks of volatility and downward pressure in the second half of the year [3][4] - The market is advised to monitor the impact of Indonesian policies and the development of new energy and semiconductor demands for long-term growth opportunities [4]