德邦证券指出，短期来看，此前的PMI数据表明当前国内经济温和回暖，国内权益市场春季行情持续演 绎未来或保持慢牛格局，短期内或对债市存在一定影响。展望后续，保险、银行理财等长期资金对长债 配置需求仍存，在中央经济工作会议"适度宽松"定调下，市场或对2026 年一季度降准概率预期升温， 若落地将打开长端利率下行空间。 开年之际，市场面临多空因素交织的复杂环境。公募销售新规在25年最后一天落地，监管高举轻放，债 市整体"舒口气"。但日内权益大涨，一定程度上压制了债市情绪。 截至2026年1月6日 15:00，科创债ETF鹏华(551030)小幅回调，盘中成交额31.81亿元。 1月5日，央行公告12月国债买卖净投放500亿元，符合市场预期。机构认为，从此次买债规模来看，预 计现阶段央行无意将国债买卖作为中长期流动性投放的主要工具，更偏向于流动性辅助工具。此外，从 当前债市表现来看，当前长端利率的调整幅度对央行而言或也属可控。 鹏华基金自2018下半年建立"固收工具型产品"中长期战略，并在利率债指数产品及ETF、信用债指数、 存单指数产品等方面积极布局，致力于打造固收工具库，力争成为国内"固收指数专家"。 凭借专业的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance capital investment scale is steadily increasing, with a significant rise in the proportion of stock investments due to long-term interest rates declining below the preset rates of insurance products, leading to a notable increase in stock investment compared to bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Scale and Structure - As of the first half of 2025, the insurance capital scale has increased by 17.4% year-on-year to 36.2 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies accounting for 90.0% of the investment balance [2]. - In terms of investment structure, the proportions of bonds and stocks are 51.1% and 8.8% respectively, both showing year-on-year increases, with stock investment growth outpacing that of bonds [2]. - The increase in stock investment is primarily driven by long-term interest rates being lower than the preset rates of insurance products, which raises the risk of interest rate spread losses for insurance companies [2]. Group 2: Focus on Banking Stocks - Among the heavy stock investments, banking stocks have consistently held the highest proportion, reaching 47.2% in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than the second-highest sector, utilities, at 7.2% [2]. - In 2025, the proportion of banking stocks in the total number of stock purchases reached 41.9%, marking a significant increase compared to 0% in 2023 and 10.0% in 2024 [2]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - Since the Central Political Bureau meeting in July 2023, policies have been introduced to promote long-term capital market participation, with insurance capital being a key focus for stable long-term funding [3]. - Regulatory optimizations are being implemented to enhance insurance companies' willingness to invest in equities, including adjustments to investment assessments and limits on equity investment ratios [3]. Group 4: Future Investment Projections - It is projected that new insurance investment funds will amount to 4.3 trillion yuan and 4.8 trillion yuan in 2025 and 2026 respectively [4]. - The expected stock investment scale is projected to account for 9.3% and 10.9% of the total new insurance investment funds in 2025 and 2026 respectively [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Given the current policy and macroeconomic environment, the trend of increasing equity investment by insurance capital is expected to deepen, with banking stocks being particularly favored due to their high dividend yields [5]. - Two main investment lines in banking stocks are identified: regional banks with strong certainty and high dividend stability [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [1]. Core Insights - The scale of insurance capital investment is steadily increasing, with a significant rise in stock investment proportion, which has outpaced bond growth [3][4]. - Bank stocks have consistently held the largest share in insurance capital's heavy stock holdings, with a notable recovery in their proportion post-2023, reaching 41.9% of total stock purchases in 2025 [3][4]. - Current policies are promoting long-term capital market entry, with adjustments in insurance company assessment mechanisms to enhance equity investment ratios, a strategy validated by experiences in the US and Japan [3][4]. Summary by Sections Insurance Capital Investment: Steady Growth and Increased Stock Proportion - As of 1H25, the total insurance capital investment balance in China reached 36.2 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 17.4%, with life insurance companies accounting for 90% of this balance [6][8]. - Stock investment growth has outpaced bond investment, with stock investment proportion rising to 8.8% in 1H25, reflecting a significant increase compared to previous years [10][12]. - The decline in long-term interest rates has been a crucial factor driving insurance companies to increase stock investments, as they seek to mitigate risks associated with interest rate spreads [24][26]. Increased Proportion of Bank Stocks in Insurance Capital Holdings - Bank stocks have maintained the highest proportion in the heavy stock holdings of insurance capital, accounting for 47.2% in 1H25, significantly higher than other sectors [29][30]. - The number of stock purchases (or "takeovers") in the banking sector surged in 2025, with bank stocks representing 41.9% of total purchases, a marked increase from previous years [29][30]. Policy Support for Increased Equity Investment by Insurance Capital - Recent policies have been implemented to facilitate the entry of long-term capital into the market, with a focus on enhancing the willingness of insurance companies to invest in equities [31][32]. - The experiences of the US and Japan demonstrate that increasing equity investment during periods of declining long-term interest rates is a viable strategy for maintaining the health of insurance companies [33][37]. Projected New Insurance Investment Funds - It is anticipated that new insurance investment funds will exceed 4 trillion yuan in both 2025 and 2026, with stock investment proportions expected to rise to 9.3% and 10.9%, respectively [41][42]. Investment Recommendations - In the current policy and macroeconomic environment, it is recommended to focus on bank stocks, particularly those with regional advantages and high dividend yields, as insurance capital is likely to increase its holdings in this sector [48].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF is experiencing a tight balance between bullish and bearish sentiments, with active trading and a significant increase in liquidity observed in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - As of July 3, 2025, the latest quote for the 30-year Treasury ETF is 125.01 yuan, indicating a stable trading environment [1]. - The ETF has a turnover rate of 21.38% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 3.46 billion yuan, reflecting active market participation [1]. - The average daily trading volume for the ETF over the past week is 6.26 billion yuan, suggesting sustained interest from investors [1]. Group 2: Fund Size and Outlook - The latest size of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 16.189 billion yuan, indicating growth in assets under management [2]. - A report from CITIC Securities anticipates that equity assets will maintain high activity levels in July, despite uncertainties related to U.S. tariffs [2]. - The report suggests that the market is likely to maintain a generally upward trend, with convertible bond assets losing some of their allocation value as risk appetite for equity assets increases [2]. Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - As of May 2025, the one-year Treasury yield has decreased by 0.5 basis points to 1.46%, while the ten-year Treasury yield has increased by 4.7 basis points to 1.67% [2]. - The trend indicates a potential improvement in liquidity starting from June, with long-term interest rates likely to break below previous lows, suggesting a positive outlook for bond market investments [2]. Group 4: Index Tracking - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year Treasury bonds with a remaining maturity of 25-30 years [3]. - This index serves as a performance benchmark for investments in this category of bonds, excluding special treasury bonds [3].