每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 10 月 102012 日星期五 -01-17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指上望 28,000 點：中美雙方同意延長 5 月中旬達成的 90 天關稅休戰 協議，同時美國與更多國家達成協議，關稅戰局勢緩和。另外，聯儲局主 席鮑威爾在全球央行年會上表示，風險平衡轉變可能需要調整政策立場， 同時美國就業數據轉弱，減息預期升溫。惟聯儲局 9 月鷹派減息，明年減 息空間少於預期。儘管港股企業盈利未見改善，但 AI 行情再起，科技股 領漲大市，加上 10 月四中全會事前料有政策憧憬，恒指上望 28,000 點。 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 ➢ 美國 10 月密歇根大學消費信心指數； 宏觀焦點 ➢ 內地兩部門指無序競爭或導致劣幣驅逐良幣； 內地首8月規模以上工業中小企增加值按年增7.6%； 內地黃金周出遊8.88億人次，總花費逾8090億元人民幣； 內地國慶檔電影票房跌13%； 中國對境外相關稀土物項實施出口管制； 中方將反無人機技術公司等列入不可靠實體清單； 畢馬威指香港有望今年重奪全球IPO榜首地位； 歐洲央行議息會議記錄顯示不急於再減息； 企業消息 ➢ 舜宇光學(2382 ...

香 港 交 易 及 結 算 所 有 限 公 司 及 香 港 聯 合 交 易 所 有 限 公 司 對 本 公 告 的 內 容 概 不 負 責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部 或任何部分內容而產生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Pangaea Connectivity Technology Limited 環 聯 連 訊 科 技 有 限 公 司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1473） 有關潛在合作之 補充公告 茲提述環聯連訊科技有限公司（「本公司」，連同其附屬公司統稱「本集團」）於二零 二五年八月二十六日刊發之公告（「該公告」），內容有關就潛在合作訂立無法律約 束力的諒解備忘錄。除另有界定者外，本公告所用詞彙與該公告所界定者具有相 同涵義。 本公司預期將認購與Mile Green成立之策略合營企業（「新公司」）的非控股股權（ 投 資 金 額 待 議 ）， 該 合 營 企 業 將 持 有 控 制 權 並 向 新 公 司 注 入 收 入 資 產 。 該 等 資 產 之 最終組成仍須經雙方最終協議，並可能包括東南亞房地產及╱或電動車的收入來 源。 新 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 26,000 points, with recent developments indicating a temporary easing in the US-China trade war and a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance towards interest rate cuts [2][4][6] - The overall market sentiment remains active, with capital rotating across different sectors, and the expectation is for the market to continue consolidating at high levels [2][4] Company Specifics - New World Development (0016) reported a 0.5% increase in its annual underlying profit, maintaining a dividend of 2.8 HKD [4] - Alibaba (9988) initiated an offer to exchange its outstanding senior notes, involving a total of 2.65 billion USD [4] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in July, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% by the end of the year, reflecting a cautious approach towards future inflation uncertainties [4][8] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1 trillion RMB reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [8] Sector Focus - The consumer electronics sector is entering its traditional peak season, with major brands set to launch new smartphones [7] - The AI and robotics sectors are seeing increased activity, with initiatives to promote "AI+" applications and advancements in humanoid robots [7][8] Investment Trends - The Chinese stock market saw a net inflow of approximately 3.1 billion USD in August, indicating a significant increase in foreign investment interest [8] - The investment product trading volume reached a record high of 6.07 trillion RMB last year, with a notable increase in participation from various companies [9] Regulatory Environment - Chinese regulators are considering measures to cool down speculative activities in the stock market, including potential restrictions on short selling and speculative trading [8] - The Chinese government is pushing for advancements in chip technology and strengthening the domestic supply chain [8]

Report Summary Global Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index opened 164 points higher but closed 153 points or 0.6% lower at 25,343 points. The China Enterprises Index fell 58 points or 0.6% to 9,050 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 44 points or 0.8% to 5,683 points. The total turnover of the market was HK$267.647 billion [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index lost 44 points or 1.16% to close at 3,813 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index declined 81 points or 0.65% to 12,472 points. The ChiNext Index rose 27 points or 0.95% to 2,899 points [1]. - The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 218 points or 1% to 21,497 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 24 points to 45,271 points, and the S&P 500 Index rose 32 points or 0.5% to 6,448 points [2]. Central Bank Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted 229.1 billion yuan of seven - day reverse repurchase operations at an unchanged rate of 1.4%. With 379.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan [1]. Index Changes - FTSE Russell announced the quarterly review results of the FTSE China Index Series for September. The changes will take effect on September 22. The FTSE China A50 Index will include BeiGene (688235.SH), New Fiber Optic Network (300502.SZ), WuXi AppTec (603259.SH), and Zhongji Innolight (300308.SZ), while removing China National Nuclear Power (601985.SH), China Unicom (600050.SH), Guodian NARI (600406.SH), and Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH) [2]. Economic Conditions - The Fed's Beige Book survey showed that economic activity in most parts of the US has remained little changed in recent weeks. Consumer spending was flat or down as wage growth for many households did not keep up with price increases [2][3]. Company Performance - Country Garden (02007.HK) reported that in August, the contract sales attributable to shareholders' equity were about 2.96 billion yuan, down 13.7% year - on - year, and the contract sales area was about 350,000 square meters, unchanged from the previous year [3].

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Hang Seng Index dropped 222 points or 0.9% to close at 24,858 after four consecutive days of gains; China Enterprises Index fell 86 points or 1%, closing at 8,895; Hang Seng Tech Index declined 86 points or 1.6%, ending at 5,460. Total turnover of the market was HK$206.72 billion, and the net inflow of southbound capital was HK$6.271 billion [1] - Shanghai Composite Index fell 4 points or 0.1% to 3,635, with a turnover of RMB713.6 billion; Shenzhen Component Index dropped 29 points or 0.3% to 11,128, with a turnover of RMB996.7 billion; ChiNext Index declined 8 points or 0.4% to 2,333, with a turnover of RMB500.3 billion [1] - US stocks rose on Friday. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 207 points or 1% to a record closing high of 21,450; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 206 points or 0.5% to 44,175; the S&P 500 Index rose 49 points or 0.8% to 6,389 [2] Group 2: Policy and Exchange Rate - The People's Bank of China conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth RMB122 billion at an unchanged rate of 1.4% on the 8th, with RMB126 billion of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net回笼 of RMB4 billion. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was lowered by 37 points to 7.1382 [1] - On the 8th, the CFETS RMB exchange - rate index fell 0.90 week - on - week to 96.04; the BIS currency basket RMB exchange - rate index dropped 1.05 to 101.76; the SDR currency basket RMB exchange - rate index also declined 0.78 to 90.82 [2] Group 3: Company - Specific News - NVIDIA (NVDA.US) and AMD (AMD.US) agreed to pay 15% of their sales revenue from Chinese chips to the US government as a condition for obtaining export licenses to China. The US Commerce Department issued an export license for NVIDIA's H20 chips to China last week [2] - The WeChat public account "Yuyuantan Tian" under CCTV discussed the "backdoor" issue of NVIDIA's H20 AI chips. Professional人士 believe that functions like "tracking and positioning" and "remote shutdown" can be technically achieved [3] - In July 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) was flat year - on - year. The average CPI for the first seven months of 2025 was 0.1% lower than the same period last year [3] - Greentown China (03900.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting its profit for the six months ended June to decline by about 90% compared to the same period in 2024, mainly due to uneven delivery rhythm and asset impairment losses [3] - HKT (00215.HK) reported its interim results for the six months ended June. Its turnover was HK$2.216 billion, up 7.7% year - on - year. It turned a profit of HK$6 million, compared to a loss of HK$12 million in the same period last year, and declared an interim dividend of 2.28 HK cents per share [4]

Market Performance - Hang Seng Index fell by 403 points, or 1.6%, closing at 24,773 points[1] - Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 42 points, or 1.18%, closing at 3,573 points[2] - S&P 500 decreased by 23 points, or 0.4%, closing at 6,339 points, marking the third consecutive day of decline[2] Currency and Economic Indicators - Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 39.25 billion during New York session due to a weak HKD[1] - People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of CNY 283.2 billion at a steady rate of 1.4%[2] - July's official manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3, below expectations[2] Real Estate and Corporate Performance - Top 100 real estate companies in China reported total sales of CNY 2.07 trillion in the first seven months, a year-on-year decline of 13.3%[4] - Internet and related services companies in China generated revenue of CNY 961.3 billion in H1, a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[4] - Sinopec expects H1 2025 net profit to be between CNY 20.1 billion and CNY 21.6 billion, a year-on-year decline of 39.5% to 43.7%[6] Automotive Sector - XPeng Motors delivered 36,717 smart electric vehicles in July, a year-on-year increase of 229%[7] - Cumulative deliveries exceeded 800,000 units as of July, with a total of 233,906 units delivered in the first seven months, marking a 270% year-on-year growth[7]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise towards 26,000 points due to stable economic performance in mainland China during the first half of the year, with limited willingness to implement further economic stimulus measures and modest corporate profit improvements [2] - Active trading in the Hong Kong market reflects a positive risk appetite, with capital rotating across different sectors [2] - The initiation of a new round of trade negotiations between China and the US, along with the extension of the 90-day tariff ceasefire agreement, has contributed to a more favorable outlook for the Hang Seng Index [2] Company News - JD Group (9618) has made a takeover offer to European electronics retailer Ceconomy [4] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (3750) reported a 33% increase in interim profit, exceeding expectations [4] - HSBC Holdings (0005) reported a 27% decline in pre-tax profit, falling short of expectations, and announced a $3 billion share buyback [4] - Prada (1913) saw a slight increase of less than 1% in half-year profit, which was below expectations [4] - WuXi AppTec (2359) is raising approximately 7.7 billion yuan through a discounted share placement [4] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with indications that they are not prepared to cut rates yet, despite a slowdown in economic activity [4] - The Fed's dot plot suggests two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points this year, with a cautious outlook on future inflation [4] - The US is engaged in trade negotiations with multiple countries, with some progress reported, although uncertainties remain [4] Macro Focus - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China has decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session in October, focusing on economic development and strategic planning for the next five years [8] - The meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in China's economic resilience and potential [8] - The Chinese government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal policies to stimulate domestic demand and consumption [9] Investment Insights - The report highlights the potential for investment in sectors such as construction, brokerage, and export-oriented companies due to ongoing trade negotiations and infrastructure projects [7] - The focus on enhancing domestic consumption and addressing economic challenges presents opportunities for companies involved in consumer goods and services [9]

Investment and Personal Growth - The content promotes a membership channel focused on personal growth through 7 "formulas" [1] - The channel encourages viewers to support it through a link to IBKR (Interactive Brokers), highlighting it as a leading investment platform with access to 150 markets [1] - The channel explicitly states it is not a financial advisor and that all investments carry risk, advising viewers to conduct their own research [1] Geopolitical and Economic Impact - The report suggests a link between the war in Ukraine, increased military production in the US, and rising housing prices in Texas [1] - It posits that war acts as a catalyst for global supply chain restructuring, benefiting US arms manufacturers and indirectly influencing the real estate market [1] - The analysis implies that government defense spending and contracts (e.g, F-35 orders) can impact local economies and housing affordability [1]

Company Recommendations - Chow Tai Fook (1929) is recommended for buy with a target price of HKD 15.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.8%. The catalysts for this recommendation include the historical high gold prices and an increase in the proportion of high-margin fixed-price gold products, which is expected to narrow the year-on-year decline in same-store sales and revenue [10][13] - Pop Mart (9992) is also recommended for buy with a target price of HKD 300.00, representing a potential upside of 16.3%. The catalysts include the sustained popularity of key IPs like the Monsters series and the new IP CRYBABY, with expectations of an earnings surprise announcement in mid-July [14][16] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is currently facing resistance at 24,700 points, with recent trade talks between China and the U.S. leading to a temporary reduction in tariffs. However, the lack of progress in trade negotiations and limited corporate profit improvements are contributing to a slowdown in capital inflow [3][7] - The Chinese stock market is showing signs of recovery, with the Hang Seng Index recently surpassing 24,000 points, reflecting a positive market sentiment despite external pressures [7] Sector Focus - The Macau gaming sector is expected to perform well, with June's gaming revenue significantly exceeding expectations and the summer peak season approaching [8] - The brokerage sector is also highlighted, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3,500 points and a continued trend of A+H share listings [8] Technical Analysis - Chow Tai Fook's stock price recently reached a 52-week high, supported by strong trading volume and a positive technical outlook, indicating potential for further gains [11][12] - Pop Mart's stock is currently supported at the 20-day moving average, with a favorable technical setup suggesting the possibility of new highs if it maintains above this level [15][18] Industry Growth - The traditional gold jewelry market in mainland China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22% from 2023 to 2028, with Chow Tai Fook holding a significant market share of 20% [13] - Pop Mart's sales growth in Q1 2025 is reported to be significantly higher than management's initial guidance, indicating strong demand for its IP products across both domestic and international markets [18]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to test the June low of 22,668 points, influenced by a series of financial policies introduced in mainland China to stabilize the market, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The U.S. and China have agreed to lower tariffs, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports decreasing from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods dropping from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2] - The Hang Seng Index's valuation has returned to a reasonable level, but rising geopolitical tensions may increase risk aversion among investors [2] Sector Focus - The report highlights a positive outlook for certain sectors, particularly in light of the U.S. manufacturing PMI data for June [3] Corporate News - Pop Mart (9992) has established a film studio to produce the animated series "Labubu and Friends" [5] - China Shenhua (1088) plans to maintain cash dividends of no less than 65% of net profit attributable to the parent company [5] - Union Pharmaceuticals (3933) received a $180 million advance payment from Novo Nordisk as part of an exclusive development agreement [5] - ZhongAn Online (6060) experienced a 3.8% reduction in shares held by Ant Group, raising approximately 655 million yuan [5] Macroeconomic Focus - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating reduced uncertainty in the economic outlook but acknowledging persistent inflation risks [4] - The report notes that the core PCE forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upward, with expectations of two rate cuts this year totaling 0.5 percentage points [4] - The report discusses the ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and various countries, with some progress noted but still subject to change [4] Economic Indicators - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,530 points, up 1.26% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.88% [7] - The report indicates that the consumer price index in Hong Kong rose by 1.9% year-on-year in May, lower than expected [10] - The report highlights that the Chinese retail sales during the "618" shopping festival increased by 15.2% year-on-year, with total sales reaching 855.6 billion yuan [10] Company Developments - Lens Technology is reportedly assessing investor interest in its Hong Kong listing, with a total revenue of 69.897 billion yuan last year, up 28.27% [12] - Weichai Power's subsidiary, Weichai Lovol, has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [12] - Kuaishou's e-commerce platform reported significant growth during the "618" shopping festival, with over 60% more merchants achieving sales exceeding 100 million yuan [12] - Douyin's e-commerce platform also reported that nearly 2,406 brands achieved sales exceeding 100 million yuan during the same period [12]