2026 年 3 月 2 日 ` | 1 | + 1 = | F | | --- | --- | --- | | | CA | | | | 1 E | 1 | | 即日財經頭條 | | | --- | --- | | 信報: | | | ◼ | 美以炸死哈梅內伊 伊朗大報復 | | ◼ | 霍爾木茲海峽受阻 油價恐破百 | | 經濟日報: | | | ◼ | 中東危機 資金短綫或湧油金 | | ◼ | SpaceX 傳最快本月秘密申上市 | | 明報: | | | ◼ | 匯控：未擬分拆恒生非核心資產 | | ◼ | 「十五五」料支援 AI 量子計算太空雲端運算等 | | 星島日報: | | | ◼ | 滙控：恒生私有化重組成本用於培訓 | | 證券日報: | | | ◼ | 外資青睞中國 AI 賽道 人民幣資產吸引力持續攀 | | 升 | | | 即日港股重點消息 | | --- | | 港股昨日回顧 | | | --- | --- | | ▪ | 港股全日收報 26,630 點，升 249 點或 1%，因應 MSCI 中國指數換馬，成交總額按日升 11.3%至 | | | 2,884.2 億元 | | ▪ ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the mixed performance of the US stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing significant gains while the Nasdaq Composite faced declines due to concerns over new AI tools impacting software businesses [8][10] - Gold prices have rebounded, surpassing the $5,000 per ounce mark, driven by rising inflation expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, positioning gold as a key asset for risk-averse investors [8][10] - The report indicates a strong demand for AI and cloud computing, with companies like Lumentum Holdings and Super Micro Computer showing impressive revenue growth, reflecting the ongoing investment in AI infrastructure [24][25] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,847.32, up by 12.55 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.84% [14] - The report notes that the Chinese technology sector is under pressure, with the Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing a 20% decline from its previous high in October, entering a technical bear market [12] - The report mentions that the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.263%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [8] Economic Data - The US non-manufacturing index for January was reported at 53.8, slightly above expectations, while the ADP private sector employment report showed an increase of 22,000 jobs, below the anticipated 45,000 [10][21] - The report highlights that the Chinese yuan is expected to strengthen, with predictions suggesting a year-end value of 6.92 against the US dollar, driven by market optimism [12][21] Company Analysis - China Overseas Development is positioned to benefit from government policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market, with a closing price of HK$14.53 [22] - Lumentum Holdings reported a revenue of $665.5 million for Q2 2026, a 65% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand in AI and cloud data centers [24] - Super Micro Computer's net sales reached $12.7 billion in Q2 2026, significantly up from previous quarters, reflecting robust growth in AI server demand [25]

Group 1 - The company, Times China Holdings (01233), announced the issuance of a total of 201 million shares related to the non-interest bearing mandatory convertible bonds due in 2027, which were issued on November 28, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its industry outlook for Hong Kong's real estate sector to "attractive," expecting positive year-on-year growth in three segments: residential property prices, Central office rents, and retail sales for the first time since 2018 [1][2]. Residential Market - The residential property market is viewed as the most promising, with prices having dropped 30% since 2018 and expected to bottom out by 2025, followed by a projected 10% increase in 2026 and further growth in 2027 [1]. - The removal of stamp duties for foreign and mainland buyers in February 2024 is anticipated to boost property purchases from mainland clients [1]. - The influx of mainland immigrants, reaching 140,000 annually post-pandemic, has doubled compared to the 70,000 per year from 2012 to 2019, contributing to positive population growth [1]. - The strong performance of the stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rising 28% in 2025, has also improved market sentiment [1]. Office Market - Despite high vacancy rates, the office market is expected to recover, with Central office rents projected to increase by 3% this year due to rising demand for quality office properties from asset management firms, hedge funds, and wealth management institutions [2]. - Recent large transactions, pre-leasing activities, and increased trading volumes in the IPO market are seen as positive indicators for the office sector [2]. Retail Market - Retail sales in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 3% year-on-year, driven primarily by an increase in visitor numbers [2]. - However, there are concerns regarding the continuous rise in online retail sales and competition from lower-priced products and services in Shenzhen, as well as potential pressure from the expansion of duty-free sales in mainland China [2].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,774 points, down 0.11% with a year-to-date increase of 28.49% [5] - The US stock market saw gains with the Dow Jones up 0.2%, S&P 500 up 0.5% reaching a historical high, and Nasdaq up 0.6% [1] - The trading volume in Hong Kong decreased to HKD 157.1 billion [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Hang Seng Index has short-term support at the 25,000 point level, with expectations of two interest rate cuts in 2026 following the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 0.25% [2] - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing investment and addressing supply-demand imbalances in the economy [2] - The US economy showed a strong third-quarter GDP growth rate of 4.3%, exceeding expectations [10] Group 3: Corporate Developments - ByteDance plans to invest approximately RMB 160 billion in AI development next year, a 6.67% increase from this year [11] - Semiconductor company SMIC has implemented a price increase of about 10% on some of its production capacity [11] - AEON Credit reported a net profit of HKD 353 million for the nine months ending in November, a growth of 28.1% [11] Group 4: Industry Trends - The domestic gaming market in China is projected to reach a sales revenue of RMB 350.79 billion this year, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.68% [9] - The lithium industry is optimistic about future price expectations, with market inventory decreasing and demand from new energy vehicles and energy storage showing strong performance [9] - The Chinese real estate market is expected to stabilize with new policies aimed at promoting the sale of existing properties and improving housing supply [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,690.53 points, up 0.75% for the day and 28.07% year-to-date[4] - The technology index rose by 1.12%, with a year-to-date increase of 22.63%[4] - The total trading volume increased by 36.2% to HKD 221.19 billion, driven by adjustments in the futures index[5] Key Stock Performances - Alibaba (9988.HK) increased by 0.8%, while Tencent (700.HK) rose by 1.5%[5] - Youjia Innovation (2431.HK) surged by 31.2% following recent approvals for Level 3 autonomous driving tests in mainland China[5] - Country Garden (2007.HK) announced a share issuance at HKD 0.4, a discount of approximately 12.09% from the previous closing price[7] Economic Indicators - Retail sales in mainland China grew by 6.9% year-on-year in October, marking the largest increase in 22 months[16] - The luxury goods market in mainland China outperformed the general market, with a year-on-year increase of 9.5%[16] Investment Recommendations - Hang Lung Properties (101.HK) is recommended for purchase at HKD 8.90, with a target price of HKD 9.50, reflecting a potential upside of 6.7%[15] - Tencent (700.HK) has a suggested buy price of HKD 600, with a target price of HKD 680, indicating a potential upside of 13.3%[13] Bond Market Trends - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by 1.54 basis points to 4.1569%[24] - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 1.39 basis points to 3.4876%[24]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to find short-term support around the 25,000 points level, following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 0.25 basis points in December, with market expectations for two additional rate cuts in 2026, which is higher than the Fed's own forecast [2] - Despite the ongoing interest rate cuts in the US and increased monetary policy easing in mainland China, the economic situation remains stable, and there is limited incentive for further policy adjustments in the short term [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand and promoting technological self-reliance, with a focus on observing the outcomes of the Central Economic Work Conference [2] Economic Indicators - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 45.6 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, reflecting a growth of 4.0%, which is 0.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year [7] - The retail sales of essential goods showed stable growth, with sales of grain, oil, and food increasing by 6.1%, and clothing and footwear sales rising by 3.5% [7] - The service retail sector grew by 5.4%, outpacing the growth of goods retail by 1.3 percentage points, with significant growth in leisure services and communication services [7] Corporate News - China Shenhua (1088) plans to acquire assets from its parent company for a total price of 133.6 billion yuan, intending to raise 20 billion yuan through A-share issuance to fund the cash portion of the transaction [9] - SenseTime (0020) announced the launch of its Kairos 3.0 model and the A1 module, aimed at enhancing embodied intelligence applications [9] - ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, is expected to achieve a profit of approximately 50 billion USD in 2025, although there are reports suggesting discrepancies in the financial data [9] Sector Focus - The AI and technology sectors are seeing growth, with companies like Quark AI glasses and Doubao AI phones gaining traction, benefiting the supply chain [6] - The biopharmaceutical sector is also expected to thrive due to rising flu cases and favorable financing conditions for global biotech investments [6] - The insurance sector is benefiting from strong A-share performance, leading to improved investment returns [6]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 233 points or 0.9%, closing at 25,468 points, driven by gains in the mainland market[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 45 points or 1.2%, closing at 3,870 points, with a total turnover of 766.8 billion yuan[2] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong decreased to 183.141 billion yuan[1] Currency and Monetary Policy - The RMB/USD central parity rate was adjusted up by 29 points to 7.0573[2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 468 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan for the day[2] Real Estate Financing - In November, the total bond financing in the real estate sector reached 62.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%[3] - The average bond financing interest rate was 2.66%, down by 0.07 percentage points year-on-year[3] Technology Development - Chinese scientists have built a prototype extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machine, aiming to produce operational chips by 2030[4] Strategic Partnerships - Minth Group announced a strategic cooperation agreement with a leading Chinese robotics company to develop intelligent robots in Europe over three years[5] - China Duty Free Group won the operating rights for duty-free shops at Shanghai Pudong and Hongqiao airports for a period of 5+3 years starting in 2026[5]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,976.79, down 108.29 points or 0.42% last week[3] - The Dow Jones increased by 1.05% to 48,458.05, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.63% to 6,827.41[5] - The Nasdaq dropped 1.62% to 23,195.17, marking a significant decline in tech stocks[5] Commodity Performance - New York crude oil prices fell by 4.39% to $57.44 per barrel, indicating a downward trend in the oil market[5] - Conversely, New York gold prices rose by 2.01% to $4,328.30 per ounce, reflecting a shift towards safe-haven assets[5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the third consecutive reduction this year, bringing the total decrease to 75 basis points[25] - The U.S. unemployment claims rose to 236,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week, surpassing market expectations[25] Inflation and Consumer Data - China's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, matching market expectations[21] - Industrial value added in China grew by 4.8% year-on-year in November, below the expected 5%[21] Investment Strategies - With ongoing rate cuts in the U.S., Asian bonds are becoming a preferred investment choice due to their higher yields compared to new issues[22] - Investors are advised to consider high-dividend stocks in the banking sector, which may provide stable returns despite narrowing interest margins[20]

Company Recommendations - China Telecom (0728) is recommended for purchase with a target price of 6.50 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15.0% from the current price of 5.65 HKD [2][11] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,976 points, with a year-to-date increase of 29.50% [4] - The market is currently observing a short-term support level around 25,000 points, influenced by the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts and the economic outlook in China [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, China Telecom reported a slight revenue increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with service revenue growing by 0.9% [7] - EBITDA increased by 4.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 5.0% year-on-year [7] - In Q3 2025, revenue slightly declined by 0.9% year-on-year, while service revenue grew by 0.5% [7] Cloud Services - China Telecom's Tianyi Cloud is in a transitional phase, with revenue growth slowing down; however, AI-driven smart computing services saw a significant increase of 62.3% year-on-year [8][9] - The company did not disclose Tianyi Cloud's revenue for Q3 2025, but it reported 57.3 billion RMB in revenue for the first half of 2025, reflecting a 3.8% year-on-year growth [8] Government Policies and Economic Outlook - The government is expected to encourage the application of AI-related cloud computing technologies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which may benefit China Telecom's cloud business [9] - The anticipated rise in Chinese government bond yields is expected to be limited, making China Telecom a relatively attractive high-dividend stock choice [10] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for China Telecom are as follows: 5,342.9 billion RMB for FY25 and 5,466.6 billion RMB for FY26 [11] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is 349.6 billion RMB for FY25 and 370.2 billion RMB for FY26 [11]