Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Hang Seng Index dropped 222 points or 0.9% to close at 24,858 after four consecutive days of gains; China Enterprises Index fell 86 points or 1%, closing at 8,895; Hang Seng Tech Index declined 86 points or 1.6%, ending at 5,460. Total turnover of the market was HK$206.72 billion, and the net inflow of southbound capital was HK$6.271 billion [1] - Shanghai Composite Index fell 4 points or 0.1% to 3,635, with a turnover of RMB713.6 billion; Shenzhen Component Index dropped 29 points or 0.3% to 11,128, with a turnover of RMB996.7 billion; ChiNext Index declined 8 points or 0.4% to 2,333, with a turnover of RMB500.3 billion [1] - US stocks rose on Friday. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 207 points or 1% to a record closing high of 21,450; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 206 points or 0.5% to 44,175; the S&P 500 Index rose 49 points or 0.8% to 6,389 [2] Group 2: Policy and Exchange Rate - The People's Bank of China conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth RMB122 billion at an unchanged rate of 1.4% on the 8th, with RMB126 billion of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net回笼 of RMB4 billion. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was lowered by 37 points to 7.1382 [1] - On the 8th, the CFETS RMB exchange - rate index fell 0.90 week - on - week to 96.04; the BIS currency basket RMB exchange - rate index dropped 1.05 to 101.76; the SDR currency basket RMB exchange - rate index also declined 0.78 to 90.82 [2] Group 3: Company - Specific News - NVIDIA (NVDA.US) and AMD (AMD.US) agreed to pay 15% of their sales revenue from Chinese chips to the US government as a condition for obtaining export licenses to China. The US Commerce Department issued an export license for NVIDIA's H20 chips to China last week [2] - The WeChat public account "Yuyuantan Tian" under CCTV discussed the "backdoor" issue of NVIDIA's H20 AI chips. Professional人士 believe that functions like "tracking and positioning" and "remote shutdown" can be technically achieved [3] - In July 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) was flat year - on - year. The average CPI for the first seven months of 2025 was 0.1% lower than the same period last year [3] - Greentown China (03900.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting its profit for the six months ended June to decline by about 90% compared to the same period in 2024, mainly due to uneven delivery rhythm and asset impairment losses [3] - HKT (00215.HK) reported its interim results for the six months ended June. Its turnover was HK$2.216 billion, up 7.7% year - on - year. It turned a profit of HK$6 million, compared to a loss of HK$12 million in the same period last year, and declared an interim dividend of 2.28 HK cents per share [4]

Market Performance - Hang Seng Index fell by 403 points, or 1.6%, closing at 24,773 points[1] - Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 42 points, or 1.18%, closing at 3,573 points[2] - S&P 500 decreased by 23 points, or 0.4%, closing at 6,339 points, marking the third consecutive day of decline[2] Currency and Economic Indicators - Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 39.25 billion during New York session due to a weak HKD[1] - People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of CNY 283.2 billion at a steady rate of 1.4%[2] - July's official manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3, below expectations[2] Real Estate and Corporate Performance - Top 100 real estate companies in China reported total sales of CNY 2.07 trillion in the first seven months, a year-on-year decline of 13.3%[4] - Internet and related services companies in China generated revenue of CNY 961.3 billion in H1, a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[4] - Sinopec expects H1 2025 net profit to be between CNY 20.1 billion and CNY 21.6 billion, a year-on-year decline of 39.5% to 43.7%[6] Automotive Sector - XPeng Motors delivered 36,717 smart electric vehicles in July, a year-on-year increase of 229%[7] - Cumulative deliveries exceeded 800,000 units as of July, with a total of 233,906 units delivered in the first seven months, marking a 270% year-on-year growth[7]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise towards 26,000 points due to stable economic performance in mainland China during the first half of the year, with limited willingness to implement further economic stimulus measures and modest corporate profit improvements [2] - Active trading in the Hong Kong market reflects a positive risk appetite, with capital rotating across different sectors [2] - The initiation of a new round of trade negotiations between China and the US, along with the extension of the 90-day tariff ceasefire agreement, has contributed to a more favorable outlook for the Hang Seng Index [2] Company News - JD Group (9618) has made a takeover offer to European electronics retailer Ceconomy [4] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (3750) reported a 33% increase in interim profit, exceeding expectations [4] - HSBC Holdings (0005) reported a 27% decline in pre-tax profit, falling short of expectations, and announced a $3 billion share buyback [4] - Prada (1913) saw a slight increase of less than 1% in half-year profit, which was below expectations [4] - WuXi AppTec (2359) is raising approximately 7.7 billion yuan through a discounted share placement [4] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with indications that they are not prepared to cut rates yet, despite a slowdown in economic activity [4] - The Fed's dot plot suggests two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points this year, with a cautious outlook on future inflation [4] - The US is engaged in trade negotiations with multiple countries, with some progress reported, although uncertainties remain [4] Macro Focus - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China has decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session in October, focusing on economic development and strategic planning for the next five years [8] - The meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in China's economic resilience and potential [8] - The Chinese government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal policies to stimulate domestic demand and consumption [9] Investment Insights - The report highlights the potential for investment in sectors such as construction, brokerage, and export-oriented companies due to ongoing trade negotiations and infrastructure projects [7] - The focus on enhancing domestic consumption and addressing economic challenges presents opportunities for companies involved in consumer goods and services [9]

Investment and Personal Growth - The content promotes a membership channel focused on personal growth through 7 "formulas" [1] - The channel encourages viewers to support it through a link to IBKR (Interactive Brokers), highlighting it as a leading investment platform with access to 150 markets [1] - The channel explicitly states it is not a financial advisor and that all investments carry risk, advising viewers to conduct their own research [1] Geopolitical and Economic Impact - The report suggests a link between the war in Ukraine, increased military production in the US, and rising housing prices in Texas [1] - It posits that war acts as a catalyst for global supply chain restructuring, benefiting US arms manufacturers and indirectly influencing the real estate market [1] - The analysis implies that government defense spending and contracts (e.g, F-35 orders) can impact local economies and housing affordability [1]

Company Recommendations - Chow Tai Fook (1929) is recommended for buy with a target price of HKD 15.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.8%. The catalysts for this recommendation include the historical high gold prices and an increase in the proportion of high-margin fixed-price gold products, which is expected to narrow the year-on-year decline in same-store sales and revenue [10][13] - Pop Mart (9992) is also recommended for buy with a target price of HKD 300.00, representing a potential upside of 16.3%. The catalysts include the sustained popularity of key IPs like the Monsters series and the new IP CRYBABY, with expectations of an earnings surprise announcement in mid-July [14][16] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is currently facing resistance at 24,700 points, with recent trade talks between China and the U.S. leading to a temporary reduction in tariffs. However, the lack of progress in trade negotiations and limited corporate profit improvements are contributing to a slowdown in capital inflow [3][7] - The Chinese stock market is showing signs of recovery, with the Hang Seng Index recently surpassing 24,000 points, reflecting a positive market sentiment despite external pressures [7] Sector Focus - The Macau gaming sector is expected to perform well, with June's gaming revenue significantly exceeding expectations and the summer peak season approaching [8] - The brokerage sector is also highlighted, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3,500 points and a continued trend of A+H share listings [8] Technical Analysis - Chow Tai Fook's stock price recently reached a 52-week high, supported by strong trading volume and a positive technical outlook, indicating potential for further gains [11][12] - Pop Mart's stock is currently supported at the 20-day moving average, with a favorable technical setup suggesting the possibility of new highs if it maintains above this level [15][18] Industry Growth - The traditional gold jewelry market in mainland China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22% from 2023 to 2028, with Chow Tai Fook holding a significant market share of 20% [13] - Pop Mart's sales growth in Q1 2025 is reported to be significantly higher than management's initial guidance, indicating strong demand for its IP products across both domestic and international markets [18]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to test the June low of 22,668 points, influenced by a series of financial policies introduced in mainland China to stabilize the market, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The U.S. and China have agreed to lower tariffs, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports decreasing from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods dropping from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2] - The Hang Seng Index's valuation has returned to a reasonable level, but rising geopolitical tensions may increase risk aversion among investors [2] Sector Focus - The report highlights a positive outlook for certain sectors, particularly in light of the U.S. manufacturing PMI data for June [3] Corporate News - Pop Mart (9992) has established a film studio to produce the animated series "Labubu and Friends" [5] - China Shenhua (1088) plans to maintain cash dividends of no less than 65% of net profit attributable to the parent company [5] - Union Pharmaceuticals (3933) received a $180 million advance payment from Novo Nordisk as part of an exclusive development agreement [5] - ZhongAn Online (6060) experienced a 3.8% reduction in shares held by Ant Group, raising approximately 655 million yuan [5] Macroeconomic Focus - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating reduced uncertainty in the economic outlook but acknowledging persistent inflation risks [4] - The report notes that the core PCE forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upward, with expectations of two rate cuts this year totaling 0.5 percentage points [4] - The report discusses the ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and various countries, with some progress noted but still subject to change [4] Economic Indicators - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,530 points, up 1.26% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.88% [7] - The report indicates that the consumer price index in Hong Kong rose by 1.9% year-on-year in May, lower than expected [10] - The report highlights that the Chinese retail sales during the "618" shopping festival increased by 15.2% year-on-year, with total sales reaching 855.6 billion yuan [10] Company Developments - Lens Technology is reportedly assessing investor interest in its Hong Kong listing, with a total revenue of 69.897 billion yuan last year, up 28.27% [12] - Weichai Power's subsidiary, Weichai Lovol, has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [12] - Kuaishou's e-commerce platform reported significant growth during the "618" shopping festival, with over 60% more merchants achieving sales exceeding 100 million yuan [12] - Douyin's e-commerce platform also reported that nearly 2,406 brands achieved sales exceeding 100 million yuan during the same period [12]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,000 points, influenced by a series of financial policies introduced in May to stabilize the market, including interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools [2] - Recent US-China trade talks have led to a temporary easing of trade tensions, with tariffs on Chinese imports reduced from 145% to 30% and on US imports from 125% to 10% for a period of 90 days [2] - However, renewed accusations from US President Trump regarding China's compliance with agreements have cast uncertainty over future negotiations [2] Macro Focus - The new round of US-China trade negotiations is centered around rare earth issues, with the Chinese Ministry of Commerce approving a certain number of rare earth export applications [4][9] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, although the pace of increase has slowed [4][9] - The US non-farm payrolls for May showed an increase of 139,000, the lowest since February, with a revised downward adjustment of 95,000 for the previous two months [4][9] - The US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments, with two rate cuts anticipated this year [4] Sector Focus - The pharmaceutical sector is viewed positively due to ongoing cooperation between Chinese and US pharmaceutical companies amidst manageable geopolitical risks [8] - Gold mining stocks are also favored as central banks continue to increase their gold holdings in response to geopolitical uncertainties [8] - The electricity sector is expected to benefit from increased demand during the summer, while coal prices continue to decline [8] Company News - BYD (1211) anticipates strong overseas sales this year, emphasizing the importance of international markets and high-end strategies [10] - Geely (0175) has decided against building new factories due to global automotive overcapacity [10] - Horizon Robotics (9660) has been included in the FTSE Global Index for Chinese large-cap stocks, effective June 20 [10] - GAC Group reported a 25% decline in May vehicle sales, with a 29% drop in new energy vehicle sales [10] - Zhihu (2390) reported a net profit of 6.94 million RMB in the first quarter, focusing on high-value users and reducing marketing expenses [10] - Landsea Green Group (2570) announced a placement of shares at a discount of approximately 28% to raise funds for hydrogen fuel cell development [10]