每一位交易者都会面对同一个令人沮丧的问题：市场波动中，究竟有多少是真正可以预测的？ 痛点非常清晰——无数时间被投入到图表形态、技术结构或财报预期中，但市场却常常毫无预警地走向相反的方向。正是在这一点上，伯顿·马尔 基尔（Burton Malkiel）的《漫步华尔街》（A Random Walk Down Wall Street）直击要害。 他的核心观点既令人不安，又让人醍醐灌顶：价格的短期波动本质上是不可预测的，大多数试图战胜市场的努力最终都会失败。对于习惯不断寻 找"优势"的交易者来说，这一结论迫使人们重新审视自己的思维方式。 《漫步华尔街》这本书系统论证了，长期持有广泛分散的指数基金，往往能持续跑赢绝大多数主动交易策略。马尔基尔并非仅凭个人观点下结 论，而是通过数十年的历史数据加以佐证，涵盖了泡沫、崩盘以及非理性繁荣的各个阶段。 对交易者而言，这本书的价值并不在于"放弃交易"，而在于重新思考真正可以发挥能力的地方。与其试图猜测下一根K线的涨跌，不如将重心放 在风险管理、资产分散以及耐心之上。这些，才是长期真正有效的策略。 伯顿·马尔基尔是谁？为什么要听他的观点？ 伯顿·马尔基尔并不是一位站在场外纸上谈兵的 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the reliability of market predictions and the concept of "Mr. Market," suggesting that market prices often reflect emotional states rather than rational evaluations of fundamentals [4][5]. - It highlights examples from the A-share market where stock prices peaked before the actual revenue growth of leading companies, indicating a potential predictive nature of stock prices [6][8]. - The article argues against the belief that stock prices can foresee fundamental changes, emphasizing that historical examples often reflect narrative biases rather than true predictive capabilities [10][12]. Group 2 - The relationship between stock prices and fundamentals is explored through the "random walk theory," which posits that stock prices reflect fundamental changes only when informed investors act on new information [20][22]. - It is noted that only a small percentage of informed investors (10%) can accurately assess changes in fundamentals, leading to a disconnect for the majority of investors who may misinterpret market signals [19][21]. - The article concludes that while market movements may seem to predict fundamental changes, they often do not provide actionable insights for uninformed investors [33][35].

Group 1 - The article discusses the reliability of market movements and the concept of "Mr. Market," suggesting that stock prices often reflect future changes in fundamentals rather than current conditions [3][4][6] - It highlights examples from various industries, such as consumer goods and renewable energy, where stock prices peaked before revenue growth did, indicating a potential predictive nature of stock prices [4][5] - The article argues against the belief that stock prices can predict fundamental changes, emphasizing that market movements are often a result of a small percentage of informed investors influencing prices while the majority react to these changes [18][30] Group 2 - The article critiques the notion that stock prices foresee fundamental changes, stating that this belief is often a narrative bias and that stock prices and fundamentals generally move in sync [28] - It explains that when fundamentals do not change, stock prices exhibit random fluctuations, and only a small fraction of investors (10%) can accurately price in changes, leading to misinterpretations by the larger market [29][30] - The conclusion emphasizes that while the market is effective, it does not allow for easy exploitation of its efficiency, as most investors must rely on their limited understanding to make decisions [32]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the North Exchange (北交所) presents significant investment opportunities, particularly for actively managed public funds, which have demonstrated strong performance compared to the North Index [1][2][3] - The 华夏北交所创新中小企业精选两年定开 fund achieved a net value growth rate of 72.16% in 2025, ranking third in the market, and has a three-year growth rate of 175.64%, making it the top-performing fund in the market [1] - The North Exchange is characterized by a relatively low number of institutional participants, allowing for better value discovery and opportunities for active management to outperform the North Index [2][3] Group 2 - The North Exchange comprises companies that have transitioned from the New Third Board (新三板), with a total of approximately 6065 listed companies, of which 2183 are in the innovation layer [3] - Notable companies listed on the North Exchange include industry leaders such as Jinjie Biological (锦波生物) and Minshida (民士达), indicating the presence of high-quality firms despite the smaller average company size [3][4] - The investment strategy of 华夏基金 focuses on leveraging research capabilities to identify and invest in quality companies within the North Exchange, which is expected to grow as more quality firms list [3][4] Group 3 - The current valuation of the North Exchange is considered attractive, with the North Index's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio at 68 times, compared to other indices like the ChiNext Index at 138 times [7] - Historical trends suggest that small-cap stocks tend to perform well during early economic recovery phases, which aligns with the current market conditions [7][8] - The North Exchange is expected to continue attracting quality companies, with liquidity increasing approximately 30 times over the past three years, enhancing its appeal to institutional investors [8]